Ignored 'Prophecies'
Hello everybody!
Today, I’ll address few issues about which I’ve received most questions in the last few days: discuss few thingies that seem to be busying your minds, one way or the other.
For example, the last night, and in retaliation for what it termed with ‘Israeli air strike on the uranium enrichment facility in Natanz’ (‘although’ this was generally assumed to have been a combined, US-Israeli strike), the IRGCASF ran its Wave 71 of the Operation True Promise-4. Except for Eilat, and between others, this targeted ‘Dimona’, in southern Israel. Which is: actually, it targeted the town I know as Arad (because it’s named that way on, for example, Google Earth), not the 20(+)km-distant Israeli nuclear research centre Dimona.
Indeed: with the Israeli air defences not reacting at all, at least one Iranian missile went straight for the centre of Arad, and not only demolished a number of buildings, but might have hit one of underground shelters. The number of reported casualties rapidly went from 20-30 up to over 100 injured, with several dead and several still trapped.
There is a lots of ‘shock and surprise’ in the media, and, of course, everybody is now blaming Iran for ‘targeting civilians’.
Why Arad?
The place was constructed starting in 1962 some 45km east of Beersheba, and is one of at least three housing - between others - people working at the Dimona nuclear research centre.
Tell me I’m biased, anti-Semite etc., but: fact is that I not only ‘do not find it OK’ anybody to target and kill civilians, but I despise whoever does so. No matter for what reason, and no matter what civilians. From my point of view: every life matters. I do not care about ethnic groups, religions or similar.
Precisely that is why I’m going to remind you that while the Israelis are targeting Iranian nuclear scientists and Iranian nuclear facilities - and they were the first to start doing so - they have also killed dozens of Iranian civilians. Especially so in June the last year. Moreover, as the polls like the following one are showing, the Israeli public simply does not care how much are the Iranian civilians suffering from their (and US) bombardment.
No, I do not find this as a reason to say, ‘if the Israelis are doing so, then the Iranians have the right to do so too’. Not the least. I’m merely reminding you of the following fact:
when both Israel and the USA are targeting nuclear facilities in Iran, and kill Iranian civilians, that’s ‘OK’…?
While, when the IRGCASF targets the Israeli nuclear scientists and kills Israeli civilians, that’s ‘not OK’…?
Sorry but: that’s the same double standards like always. The same like when US-Israeli forces are ‘highly professional’ and ‘precise’ and whatever, while Iranians/IRGC are ‘hordes of bloodthirsty came riders & turban wearers randomly targeting civilians’ - although by now it turned out not only that the IDF can’t care less about ‘collateral damage’, but that the Iranians/IRGC are targeting, actually, very precisely (especially considering the poor precision of their missiles and UAVS) and systematically, and what they are doing is making so much sense this missile strike on Arad was entirely unopposed.
It was unopposed both because of hits on the Israeli air defence, and because earlier Iranian missile strikes have attrited its air defences to the degree where the Israelis have no interceptors left. …which, of course, the IDF is never going to admit: lacking visual evidence, I can only assume such Iranian attacks taken place by the number of Israeli reports about ‘Iranian strikes on Beit Shemesh’ - read Sdot Micha Airbase - because of gradually decreasing effectiveness of the Israeli air defences: but, this is something I can assume with a high degree of confidence already because the Iranians/IRGC have also knocked out at least 10 major US radars related to air defence purposes everywhere else in the Middle East.
PS Not to be outdone, this morning, the US Navy launched a TLAM-strike on Natanz, and the CENTCOM reported ‘damage’ to the facility.
Now, sure, I can’t but wonder: why was this necessary if this site was (quote from IQ47) ‘obliterated’ the last year…? But, OK: my questions aside: AFAIK, the USN meanwhile has some 16 Arleigh-Burke-class destroyers in the Medterreanean Sea, the Red Sea, and the Arabian Sea. Nominally, each is carrying 32 TLAMs. Add at least one modified Ohio-class SSGN, carrying another 154 TLAMs. Gauging by photographs that appeared in the Turkish media, three or four days ago, this is underway in the eastern Mediterranean, off the coast of Cyprus.
Another thing that might be interesting: the US Navy is assessed as having spent some 350-400 TLAMs so far. That’s something like 10% of its stock of 3,200.
Before this Iranian strike on Arad, the last two days, Western media roared about ‘Iran’s attack on the US and British base Diego Garcia’ in the central Indian Ocean, some ‘2,500 miles’ away from Iran.
Can’t help it, but: reading related reports is rather revealing how much is unknown about this story, than any kind of hard facts. For example: nobody is really sure how was this strike actually run. Some are guessing about UAVs, but the majority seems to be buying the story about the Iranians launching ‘two Khorramshahr-4 ballistic missiles with reduced payload’. The story goes on that one failed underway, and crashed, and the other was shot down by an SM-3 Standard missile fired by a guided missile destroyer of the Alreigh Burke-class, of the US Navy.
The Chief of Staff IDF rushed to publish a ‘selfie’-video with a sternous warning: this means that Iranian missiles can reach Europe, too, and Israel is fighting to protect Europe and democracy and civilisation and the World…
No, I do not know any better. There are only three things I know for sure:
1.) Diego Garcia is no ‘British base’: it’s an island in the Chagos archipelago, officially British territory, from which the British ethnically cleansed the population to make place for leasing the island to the USA. Now, while that base is ‘nominally US-British base’, actually, the facilities are used by US armed forces and have the US designation. Originally, this was ‘Camp Justice’: in 2006, it was renamed to Camp Thunder Cove, or Naval Support Facility Diego Garcia… Fact is: at Diego Garcia, the USA have constructed a big air base, capable of supporting up to 20 B-1, B-2, and B-52-bombers - as was obvious already back in 2001, when the USA (and allies) launched their military intervention in Afghanistan.
2.) Diego Garcia is some 3,780km from the nearest point on the Iran’s coast. 3,780km is some 2,349 miles, or 2,041 nautical miles.
3.) The final thing I’m sure about is something for which I cannot provide evidence. At least not any more. It’s my fault: meanwhile, it’s the Year 2026, and I haven’t saved the link, and thus I can’t point you at a post (in Farsi) on one of IRGC’s websites from sometimes in around 2004-2007, in which one of its top strategists was explaining the need to develop a missile capable of striking Diego Garcia. Yes, Diego Garcia, no ‘Europe’ or whatever else, but Diego Garcia. Explicitly.
Now, regardless of not saving the link, I’ve memorised this because… well… while in ‘the West’ this was generally considered ‘yet more of disgusting Iranian propaganda’ - the way I’m working is to first understand the backgrounds and context, so I can understand what are such ‘interest groups’ like the IRGC after. To do so, to understand them, I have to read - and keep in mind - what are its ideologists and strategists ‘teaching’ (or ‘preaching’, if you prefer). Which is why I was not surprised when, few years later (still in the late 2000s), the IRGCASF proudly demonstrated its Sejjil solid-propelled, two-stage ‘intermediate’-range ballistic missile. Nor about (‘Western’) estimates that this might have a 38-45-tons heavy Sejjil-3 variant, assessed as having three stages and a range of some 4,000km (incl. a warhead of 700kg).
4.) The other thing I’m sure about is that since developing the Sejjil, the IRGCASF made use of the same or similar, ‘baby-bottle’-shaped warhead on a number of other of its ballistic missiles.
One ‘thingy’ next to nobody is talking about meanwhile - is the Israeli rampage in Lebanon. Me thinks, this should be discussed - if for no other reason then out of respect for 900+ of Lebanese civilians massacred by Israeli bombs over the last two weeks. Because the history is teaching us that such traumas - for example: when caused by Israeli massacres of dozens of thousands of civilians in southern Lebanon of the 1970s - tend to lead to the emergence of such militias like Murabiton, and then, ‘around several corners’, and few years later: to Hezbollah.
And so, and for example, on Friday, 20 March, around 20.00hrs local time, the US Ambassador to Lebanon requested his government to request the Israelis to ‘spare Christian villages’ of southern Lebanon. By side that this means that (at least) the US Ambassador to Lebanon knows, very well, what kind of mayhem and atrocities is the Israeli bombardment causing to the local population… why should anybody care, right? But: three hours later the IDF issued one of its notorious ‘evacuation orders’ for one of Christian villages in southern Lebanon…
What always happens next in such cases is that the IDF then says that the civilians in question are either ‘supporting Hezbollah’ or ‘Hezbollah is using them as human shields’ - although there is no evidence Hezbollah (nor Hamas, for that matter), ever did so, but it’s the IDF that’s got a well-established doctrine of using ‘Arab’ civilians as human shields.
No need to ‘believe’ me anything: that’s what Israel’s own human-rights organisations were the first to explain. Already 20 years ago, the use of human shields was so frequent within the IDF that the Israeli juristical system attempted to curb it - and failed in face of massive resistance both from within the armed forces and the Israeli public.
With other words: get ready for yet more reports about mass civilian casualties - in Lebanon, and elsewhere.
The final question is this: what’s going to happen in this ‘no-War’ of the US-Israel against Iran as next?
By side that it’s nothing but silly that IQ47 - the same character that threatened to invade one of NATO-allies, slightly over a month ago - can’t stop bashing NATO-allies for not helping him, but: I cannot but wonder why is he now not activating his ‘Board of Peace’ to help him out of the problem he’s created (sure: thanks to bribery and subversion from the AIPAC/Israel)?
After all, he’s not only created that Board of Peace ‘instead of the dysfunctional/incompetent/useless’ UN; but also lifted US$10 billion from the US Treasury (i.e. misused US taxpayer’s money) to fund it, but: the supposed purpose of that Board of Peace was to… maintain peace? But, now…?
Instead, and gauging by the rushed re-deployment of two major US Marines units (so-called ‘amphibious ready groups’, ARGs), in direction of the Persian Gulf (not only the USS Tripoli-centred 31st MEU is underway there: meanwhile, the USS Boxer-centred 11st MEU is on the same way), it seems that the newest plan by the IQ47’s administration is to continue striking Iran while seizing either the Khark Island, or some other point on Iran’s coast - in order to force the IRGC-regime to reopen the Hormuz. Or even surrender.
Call me whatever you like but: for all practical purposes, this is just another pipe-dream. No plan, but an idea that is never going to work.
Reasons:
1.) every additional day of (foremost) Israeli daydreaming about ‘degrading Iran’ is a day of continued - and continuously deepening - global economic crisis. Another day of massive economic damage just from the fact that Hormuz remains closed. Not to talk about additional damage caused by combat operations - to Iran, yes, but also to all of its neighbours.
What am I talking about?
Well, if there is anybody expecting Qatar, UAE or KSA are going to ‘recover like nothing happened’: good luck!
Precisely that fact, girls and boys, is working straight into the hands of both - the IRGC-regime and the Israeli-regime.
2.) OK… now, in order to reach Khark, the USN has to sail into the Hormuz Strait and…. wait: the US Navy is going into the Hormuz, and that with big, fat, slow amphibious warfare ships crammed full with troops, fuel and explosives?
That’s when I can’t but wonder: how is the US Navy going to do that, if the Hormuz - 750km from the Khark - is already now a no-go zone? How is the USN going to march all of its big, fat, slow amphibs all these 750km from Hormuz to the Khark along the coast full of the IRGC bases and hideouts?
3.) But yes, Khark is Iran’s No. 1 oil-export-terminal. No dispute about this. 90% of Iran’s crude exported abroad is loaded there.
However, it’s not something like the ‘sole point of loading the Iran’s crude for export’. As explained already days ago, it’s the Gorreh pumping station that’s the ‘heart’ of Iran’s oil-export system, and from there, there is a pipeline all the way to the port of Yask, in the Gulf of Oman. Both of these are on Iran’s mainland.
Means: with our without Khark, Iran can continue exporting. Except the US Marines land in the Yask area as first (as described here), then march for 200km to Bandar e-Abbas, and then another 700km to Khark..
Alternatively, the IRGC-regime can opt to shut down its production before it’s so far. Entirely on its own. To let IQ47 see how much is his ‘permission’ for Iran to export crude for US$ worth. Just like the Qatari regime has done.
Hope, I need not emphasising that in such a case the global economic crisis is only going to worsen (while the IRGC-regime is still going to remain in place).
4.) …which reminds me: is there a ‘Plan B’ should the seizure not yield the expected results?
5.) Now, if the US armed forces (not so much the US Navy) decide to go ‘all in’ and assault and occupy Khark - or Abu Musa, or the Greater or Lesser Tunb, or (worst idea of all) Qeshm, or Yask, or (provided the USA find enough troops to do so) all of these - that is not even as likely as to cause ‘huge US casualties’ as some are fearing. Sure, the Iranians are going to defend with all means on hand, but: US military might alone is going to overpower them before soon.
However, keeping any of these islands or places on the mainland under military occupation - and that by US troops - is an entirely different pair of shoes.
As for why? Well, for how long should that occupation last? Who expects US troops - half of them crazed by indoctrination about IQ47 being something like Messiah, almost a reincarnation of Jesus Christ, at least a saviour of Christianity and ‘America’ - to treat the local MUSLIM population well? At least decently? And when and how are the US troops then going to withdraw? And ever heard of something called ‘mission creep’?
Should there be any doubts, check what happened in Vietnam, but especially in Afghanistan and Iraq…
6.) It remains amusing to see all the articles and commentary etc. - in the mainstream- and the social media - expecting the IRGC-regime to ‘negotiate’.
Yes, sure: there are reports that IQ47 and his AIPAC-selected administration are ‘preparing to negotiate after the war’. But, who’s said the IRGC-regime is doing that?
Put yourself into their shoes (no, that’s no ‘Iranian propaganda’) and ask yourself: what shall the IRGC-regime negotiate about?
They’ve been assaulted and killed by two most merciless- and most unaccountable powers on this planet. And that ‘for nothing’: for trying to build-up conventional tools of deterence to exactly this kind of an aggression. For the notion of resisting, and for their right to be treated as equal. They’re already experiencing a whole-sale destruction of their country - because it’s not ‘just’ the regime, its nuclear facilities, or missile bases and factories the US-israelis are bombing - accompanied by outright mass-murder: at least by two powers that not only do not care about ‘collateral damage’, but are intentionally targeting even the very history of Iran’s 2,600-years-old homeland. They can’t expect any kind of mercy already now, before facing a land-invasion, too.
The IRGC-regime’s most effective tool - and the only tool in their hands left - is that of resistance: whatever that resistance might be, or whatever might be left of it (‘and if it is one missile a month fired at Israel’) it is sufficient to deepen the crisis caused by the aggressors to almost unimaginable levels.
So what shall they negotiate about?
The US-Israel have started this aggression: their war of aggression has clearly misfired. It’s on them to swallow their pride, stop it, and withdraw. It’s as simple as that.
Unsurprisingly, multiple members of the IRGC-regime have made it crystal clear, again and again: they’re not going to negotiate, no matter what.
Kill them, but be sure: their replacements are going to tell you the same.
Bottom line: no three seizures of the Khark island (or any other of Iranian islands in the Persian Gulf) are going to create any kind of ‘automatism’ that would result in at least a cease-fire. Not to talk about what ‘the West’ might actually want from Iran - like capitulation, disarmament and some sort of a peace deal. This is not going to happen.
From IQ47’s point of view, the best solution would be to do the same like the last year in June: declare this one a ‘victory’ and go home.
He’s has proven himself as as corrupt, as incompetent and as ill-advised as to start this adventure - actually, though definitely: on behalf of Israel. Now the question is if he might prove as sane enough to end it, too.
On time, please.
For the record: The USS Tripoli (LHA-7) do not carry LCAC or such things as it's do not have well deck. The USS America (LHA-6) and the USS Tripoli is the two "air-oriented" LHA within the USA America class, which means they exchange their well deck for more hangar space to bring more F-35B's and MV-22's...
This is right only for this two ships as the decision makers hit the brake and reverse gear to bring back the well deck from the USS Bougainville (LHA-8) and the later ships of the USS America class.
Trump is the new Saddam. An idiot (or puppet, or both) being played off against Iran for the benefit of third parties.