Hidden Gears of the Realpolitik

Hello everybody!

Early yesterday (Thursday, 30 July), the border at Ceuta - Spain’s little toe on the northern Africa’s coast of the Mediterranean - suddenly ceased to exist. Thousands of Moroccans didn’t just cross; they flooded in. Using everything from the Tarajal breakwater to coastal barriers they scaled like Spiderman, or simply swimming over from Enideg and Belyounech, they turned a stroll into a sprint.

The surge hit its maximum velocity between 12:00 and 16:00 local time: within just four hours, an estimated 40,000 people - almost exclusively Moroccan nationals - strolled across. By this morning, the headcount hit 60,000. It wasn’t an invasion; it was a migration event on fast-forward.

Now, ignore the screeching from the usual right-wing echo chambers and their white supremacist fan clubs bleating about ‘open borders’ and damning the Spanish prime minister Pedro Sanchez in particular: I’ll get to that point, don’t worry. What’s important is that the Spanish reaction was anything but passive. The Guardia Civil, the National Police, and even specialised rescue divers were deployed almost immediately. The Spanish Army wasn’t just on standby; several units were mobilised and rushed to Ceuta to backstop the overwhelmed border agents.

The reaction was prompt, drastic, and militarised.

And so, while the mass of mainstream- and social media is still indulging in hornily ‘showing shocking videos of invader hordes’ from Ceuta, as of this afternoon, at least 48,000 of ‘migrants’ had already packed up and gone back to Morocco. The rest is currently collected and processed.

And, don’t worry, clueless Germans, Italians, and Austrians that are now ‘in panic mode’: even ‘in peace’, nobody gets from Ceuta to Spain without particularly stringent controls.

There’s no 'Schengen’ there.

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How could this happen?

Well, for typical extremist idiots and all sorts of wiseacres dominating the social media, things are simple: it was the ‘leftist Spanish government’ that withdrew the border guard, and the Guardia Civil run away, and this is the downfall of Europe…and whatever other nonsense, lies, and mythology.

…and not one of talking-heads I’ve tried to listen to today came to the idea to ask himself: and how the f..k do 60,000 civilians organise themselves so well and cross exactly at the few points where the Guardia Civil had no immediate presence?

…even less so is anybody wondering: and WTF were Moroccan authorities doing?

Actually…

…well, the notion of a masterful tactical withdrawal by Spanish authorities is, frankly, giving them too much credit. The reality is far more mundane: the system simply choked. When migrants began bypassing traditional gates - swimming around maritime breakwaters or scaling the fence at multiple points simultaneously - Guardia Civil and National Police found themselves overwhelmed by sheer numbers. That was no ‘retreat’, but they were swept away, buried under the sheer volume.

Indeed, if anyone there was on a cigarette break, then the Moroccan side. Pay attention: Morocco isn’t some ‘banana republic’ that’s easily losing track of tens of thousands of people amassing on its borders, but actually a police state monitoring its own population 24/7. Therefore, it does take super-incompetence to look the other way while enabling 60,000 to gather in Findeq and advance toward the Tarajal crossing under circumstances that can only be described as 'unusual.' Add to this a potent dose of disinformation: human trafficking networks weaponised a recent Spanish Supreme Court ruling, spreading rumours that Madrid would no longer deport maritime arrivals. It wasn't a stand-down order that triggered the rush, but a lie that spread like wildfire.

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Revenge, served cold

Lots of fuel to the fire was then added by… (drums) Israel. (Yes, who else, eh?). That shining star of ultra-Zionism named Danny Danon - and serving as Israeli’s UN Ambassador - began mocking Spain’s ‘hyporcisy’: quasi, Spain is lecturing Israel on its borders while struggling to secure its own…

…and what a surprise, multiple Spanish politicians - and mind that the Spaniards are generally known as super-cool people, who simply can’t get upset - began firing back. Indeed, what a surprise, most of the government in Madrid quickly concluded this was Israel’s ‘revenge’ for Spain pushing new EU trade sanctions against Israel, imposing an arms embargo, etc.

But, I’m an anti-Semite? …’seeing Israel everywhere’ - and now descending into conspiracy theories, too, eh?

Yup. Have heard the same about the IRGC in Syria, some 10 years ago, too…

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Israel… erm.. no: Moroccan Pegasus Spyware Affair

Fact is this: if you think this is just about a few thousand people climbing some fences or swimming across a border, you’re missing the delightful tangle of realpolitik in the background.

Thanks to the Abraham Accords, Morocco - or at least its ‘king’ - and Israel are practically best friends now. In exchange for Israel recognising Moroccan sovereignty over Western Sahara (a former Spanish colony illegally occupied by Morocco since 1975 and ever since mercilessly exploited) - which, of course was a move that didn’t ruffle any feathers in the international community. For Rabat, this opened the doors to deep military cooperation. We’re talking high-tech Israeli defence systems and a modernised Moroccan military that looks suspiciously well-equipped for a nation supposedly uninterested in escalation: has absolutely no irredentist policy vis-a-vis all of its neighbours, especially Algeria…

…and is chronically short on cash (at least whenever not kept afloat by Saudi petro-Dollars).

Naturally, this chafes Spain. It’s one thing to watch away as Israeli genocidaries are earning handsome profits in Rabat: it’s another to have your neighbours spying on your top politicians - like Moroccans are doing, with Israel’s support - already for years. See the Pegasus Spyware Affair. Which, by sheer and distilled accident, of course, was dragged back into the light by a few Spanish whistleblowers, just a few days ago.

The allegation?

This time, the Moroccan intelligence utilised Israeli-made software to hack the phones of just the Spanish Prime Minister… and ‘few other European leaders’.

Meh… if you’re not a Spaniard, it’s nothing worth attention.

…and so, it’s 2022 all over again: that ‘king’ expects continuous concessions from the European Union (especially in regards of international recognition of its claim over Western Sahara), and whenever tensions flare, the Border Guards are told to look the other way.

…and what a better moment to do so but at the time the Spain’s government had opened an amnesty application scheme that drew over 1 million applications from undocumented migrants seeking legal assistance, right?

How was the operation organised?

Via social media: specific channels on TikTok, WhatsApp, and Telegram began broadcasting exact meeting points, times, and routes, and announced that Spain would now open the borders’ and was ‘granting automatic residency to anyone who could swim or walk across’…

…must by that itch in my small toe, once again, that is a reason why this reminds me so strongly about another ‘spontaneous popular’ action of this kind, instigated by Morocco back in 1973, and named the Green March. Certainly not that I researched and penned stuff like Showdown in Western Sahara, Vol.1 and Vol. 2…

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Where’s the actual Problem?

It’s the Realpolitik. In this case, the version named ‘the Global Fertilizer Collapse’.

Mind: to produce food - really: lots of food - one needs fertilisers. Really: lots of fertilisers. And to manufacture fertilisers, one needs phosphates.

And, guess who’s the biggest exporter of fertilisers?

Well, normally, that would be countries like Saudi Arabia, UAE, Qatar, Kuwait, Iran, and Morocco. However, because of US-Israeli-Emirati idiocies with Iran - wholeheartedly supported by most of Europe - no phosphates and no fertilisers are leaving the Persian Gulf since February.

Indeed: the Middle Eastern fertilizer pipeline is effectively dead. As first, Qatar has been forced to take the Qatar Fertiliser Company (QAFCO) offline following military escalations and drone strikes. This isn’t a minor hiccup; QAFCO is the largest single-site exporter of urea in the world, controlling 14% of the global supply. Then there is the sulfur bottleneck. You cannot produce phosphate fertilizer without immense amounts of sulfur, and the Gulf States (Saudi Arabia, the UAE, Qatar, and Kuwait) control 41% of that trade. Thanks to the ongoing blockades in the Strait of Hormuz and the Red Sea, shipping has ground to a halt. Agricultural experts are calling it a ‘food security timebomb’. That is polite speak for ‘starvation is incoming’.

You don’t need to believe me anything of this: just mark your food prices right now. And then again during the coming winter.

With the Middle East knocked out of the value chain, Morocco has become the undisputed gatekeeper of Western agriculture. They hold nearly 70% of the planet's remaining phosphate rock reserves. The cherry on top? A massive portion of this is mined from the Bou Craa mine in occupied Western Sahara and transported via the world's longest conveyor belt to Atlantic ports. The desperation is so severe that the Trump administration explicitly suspended tariffs on Moroccan phosphates, happily ignoring international law regarding Sahrawi sovereignty. Just to prevent an agricultural collapse in the USA.

And when such German super-incompetents like some Ursula von der Leyen or Friedrich Merz then ‘react’ to ‘Ceuta affairs’, they’re speaking so super-softly, can’t say. See: ‘Morocco is a close partner… so sexy… oh my…’ With other words: they know they’re blackmailed, they know they’re trapped in a predicament of their own making (or at least that of their political predecessor, because the Western Sahara issue could’ve been sorted out - peacefully - decades ago), but also know nothing better but to brown their pants.

Bottom line:

• the EU knows it is being blackmailed;

• Spain knows it is being blackmailed (and subverted by Israel);

• even that melon in Rome knows ‘she’s’ being blackmailed.

…and yet, even when it’s about such a existential threat like this one, they all haven’t got the faintest idea how to get out. No idea how to solve the problem.

I mean… hand on heart: I can understand the super-rich tax-avoiders that are bribing our politicians. They have a motive. Profit. But useful idiots with nice titles and pensions called our politicians…? They are signing away the continent’s future because they neither know the basic math, nor can read maps. But are so good at staging press conferences and summits…

Yes, this ‘Garden Europe’ is a tragedy written by a committe of clowns.

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Ah yes, and before you burst in tears from worries about the Moroccan ‘king’: nah, no need to worry. While dozens of thousands of his precious - but typically impoverished - subjects were trying to find a way out of their daily misery, and risking life and limb to cross into Ceuta, King Mohammed VI was enjoying his annual summer holiday just down the road. Principally somewhere between his luxurious estates in the M’diq and Cabo Negro, or on his 70-metre superyacht Badis 1, designed by Lamborghini.

Full revelation: now I’m really jealous. That damn wreck is 5 metres longer than mine!