Few Examples for Assadist/Loyalist & Russian Aerial Activity over NW Syria

Over the last five weeks, I’ve intensively monitored whatever was reported about aerial activity of the Russian Aerospace Force (VKS) and…

Over the last five weeks, I’ve intensively monitored whatever was reported about aerial activity of the Russian Aerospace Force (VKS) and the Syrian Arab Air Force (SyAAF) over north-western Syria (Aleppo and Idlib Governorates, but Homs and Hama too). I scanned an average of 400–700 related tweets, FB-posts, e-mails from my own sources, media reports and similar ever single day.

The resulting data is not perfect. For example, I’m sure that a significant number of additional sorties are flown by VKS helicopters over eastern Syria, and by the SyAAF over central and southern Syria. But, I do consider it ‘at least 80% complete’ — and thus ‘representative’ — for the area between Aleppo in the north, Homs in the south, and Lattakia in the east.

Information from all the sources in question was collected into daily summaries. Here few examples of these (note; all times provided are local times):

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13 November

Aerial activity was more intensive than in the days before. It began around 00.15hrs, with reports about take-offs of four VKS aircraft from Hmemmem AB. The next wave — again by the VKS — was launched about 1 hour latter, i.e. around 01.15hrs, and consisted of at least 7 take-offs from Hmemmem AB.

The third wave began another hour later: it commenced around 02.30, and consisted of at least 3 take-offs. The fourth and fifth wave were much smaller: they followed around 03.30 and 04.30hrs, and included a total of 3–4 take-offs.

Around 06.30hrs, the VKS launched four aircraft that all went in direction of Idlib.

Between 07.30 and 09.00hrs, the VKS launched 6 further air strikes — this time in direction of Western Aleppo. Around 09.00hrs, two possible aircraft of the V-MF (they were not positivelly identified, but area of reporting and their very high altitude is indicating they might have come from aircraft carrier Kuznetsov) were observed underway over Jishr ash-Shughour.

Means: between the midnight and 09.00hrs, the VKS launched a total of 26 air strikes, the V-MF might have added two — most of these on Idlib and Western Aleppo.

Example of targets bombed during the given period of time and in the stated area (western Aleppo): Air strikes batter two hospitals in Aleppo countryside: monitor, medic.

The SyAAF began its ‘working day’ by launching MiG-23s from Hama AB, around 09.00hrs. By 11.00hrs, a total of 5 take-offs by MiG-23s, 8 by Su-22s, 13 by Su-24s and 9 by helicopters were recorded. Their activity slightly decreased between 11 and 13.00hrs, but 7 Su-22s (several of which bombed Sarqib), and 3 Su-24s were still launched during that period of time.

Around 13.00hrs, the SyAAF launched its next major wave, once again starting with a MiG-23 from Hama AB. This seems to have bombed something in Ariha area. Around the same time, 8 Su-22s took off: one bombed the very centre of Ra’astan. Two unknown aircraft — possible V-MF — were reported from Jabal Kurd in NE Lattakia. Most of these air strikes seem to have targeted various towns in northern Hama (link to YouTube video) and around Idlib.

Russians became active again around 16.00hrs local time, launching a wave of 8 aircraft in direction of Idlib and Western Aleppo. At least one of these bombed an unknown target inside Idlib city with RBK-500s filled with termite, around 17.46hrs.

Around 19.00hrs, SyAAF L-39s became active, launching a total of 7 sorties from T.4 and Kweres AB, all of which went into northern and western direction, respectively. Several of them bombed Latamina and nearby Latameah.

Totals for 13 November 2016:

L-39s: 13
MiG-21: 1
MiG-23: 7
Su-22s: 31
Su-24s: 19
helicopters: 20

VKS + V-MF: 61 combat sorties
VKS helicopters: 1 
VKS reconnaissance aircraft: 2 sorties

Bombardment was continued primarily by Russians from Hmemmem and L-39s after midnight, i.e. well into the morning the next day.

***

21 November

Following quite a long break during the night (not a single sortie flown between 00.00 and 06.30), the VKS commenced flying at 06.30 by launching four aircraft from Hmemmem AB. Shortly later, a single UAV was reported airborne over Jishr ash-Shughour, and two SyAAF helicopters reported while underway from as-Safira in direction of Aleppo.

SyAAF fighter-bombers began launching only at the usual business hour - which is 09.00. As usually, Russians flew next to nothing during the following two hours.

A series of particularly devastating strikes against East Aleppo was flown by about a dozen of helicopters from as-Safira, plus several Su-22s and Su-24s between 11.00 and 12.00hrs. These included deployment of up to ten bombs filled with chlorine, most of these purchased from Jordan (as evident on the photo here, too), on Sakhur District; then CBUs against Rashidin, and barrel bombs on Haydariya, Sukkari and Maysar.

It’s unclear whether it was Assadists or Russians that bombed Rif Muhandisin and Urum al-Kubra, west of Aleppo, around the same time.

Russians followed by few sporadic strikes primarily against Khan Sheikhoun area. SyAAF helicopters continued pounding Eastern Aleppo, while Su-22s and Su-24s were striking the Kfar Zita and Latamina in northern Hama (apparently because of reported concentration of ex-Darayya FSyA combatants there), and Southern Aleppo area most of the afternoon. L-39s appeared around 17.00hrs, were very active the entire evening, and primarily targeted Latamina and Ra’astan-Talbiseh Pocket. The VKS then took over for the rest of the evening.

Statistics

L-39s: 13 (no training flights)
MiG-21s: 1 (Hama)
MiG-23s: 4 (Hama)
Su-22s: 25
Su-24s: 18

Helicopters: 32 (nearly all from as-Safira)

UAVs: 5

VKS: 30 (4 of these possibly related to Kuznetsov).

***

Further cross-examination of such reports, plus those about ‘results’ of air strikes in question enabled creation of weekly summaries. ‘Total summary’ for period 25 October — 25 November is to follow, but it is already possible to draw a number of useful conclusions — as described in the article Syrian Regime Bombs Eastern Aleppo While Russia Focuses Its Bloody Strikes Elsewhere.