F-47: Subscription to Trumpism

Hello everybody!

I’m not of the kind ‘hanging’ on every bit and piece of news about modern fighter aircraft. At least I haven’t been that way for some 45 years: since back in the 1970s, when the headlines in this ‘business’ were dominated by designs like Northrop F-5 Tiger II, Grumman F-14 Tomcat, McDonnell-Douglas F-15, General Dynamics F-16, McDonnell-Douglas F/A-18 Hornet, Dassault Mirage F.1 and then Mirage 2000, MiG-23, MiG-25, PANAVIA Tornado, Saab JA.37 Viggen and similar.

Things slowed down so much ever since that one was happy to witness the appearance of a new sub-version of any of these - not to talk about new designs – perhaps two or three times in a decade. However, amid all the reports related to Trump contracting Boeing to design and manufacture the F-47 stealth fighter jet in series, the first few ‘headlines’ of the last few days I’ve caught were all related to this project. Thus, can’t but avoid some analysis. If for no other reason, then because so many ‘reports’ about this project have prompted me to guess: what shall one think about F-47?

***

Have emphasised this several times, but let me repeat it: for me, the entire humanity is a system of systems, with lots of sub-systems. Thus, the way I monitor appearances of the kind like F-47 is similar: it’s a system of politics, business, technology, military requirements, and – in our days – also lots of pomp, bragging, chest thumping, and not little testosterone and chauvinism.

Yes, the USA are ‘still’ the leading technological superpower. However, late the last- and early this year, the People’s Republic of China (PRC) clearly demonstrated that they’re not only ‘catching’, but about to surpass in this regards. Europe didn’t move: why should it? There was no requirement and so far it was so much more opportune to subscribe to the US defence services by buying stuff like Lockheed-Martin F-35. Yes, also when this meant obvious abandonment of capability of independent/sovereign national defenc… or keep a few corporations busy with ‘low-priority’ projects like FCAS (Germany, France, and Spain) and…erm… FCAS… which is: GCAP/Tempest II (UK, Italy, Japan, Sweden).

Thanks to Trump being so wise as to ‘unfriend’ – if not alienate – almost all the US allies in ‘the West’, this situation has experienced a dramatic change in the last few weeks. Nowadays, Canada is ‘reviewing’ its order for F-35s, and eyeing an alternative; Portugal has already cancelled its order for F-35s, and few others might follow in fashion. At least a few people ‘up there’ within circles of political decision-makers (not to talk about the oligarchy dictating them what to think and do) have figured out that an overdependence on the USA is simply not the best idea.

But, lets get back to the USA and check what’s up there in regards of the Boeing F-47.

Official release showing the Boeing F-47 from the front. The image is massively photo-shopped; so much so, it seems somebody darkened the two fins (either side of the top of the cockpit, and the lower portion of the US flag in the background), and intakes - which are nearly certainly under the wing.

From my point of view, the program is a ‘subscription to Trumpism’: something like the official ideology of the Trump II Administration. That’s the politics of gorilla-like chest-thumping and bragging, grandiose announcements, incredible corruption and self-enrichment at the cost of the entire society, and complete ignorance of consequences. Contrary to gorillas, though, Trumpists are doing that without any trace of substance, foresight, and vision (beyond dismantling the USA as a democracy and a functional administration), and then in complete disregard for even the internal security of the USA (not to talk about its defence- and economic alliances).

Kind of ‘unsurprisingly’, the jet was designated F-47: quasi to commemorate the Republic P-47 Thunderbolt of the Second World War-fame; then the year in which the US Air Force was officially separated from the US Army and established as an independent branch of the US Armed Forces (1947)… and then, by pure accident, of course, because Trump is the 47^th president of the USA.

Actually, ‘the USA’ – read: the Trump II Administration – must brag with a project that’s ‘better than the Chinese’… and easily outmatching whatever the ‘leftist European snowflakes’ might come up with. Reason: revealing a new US fighter is ‘great television’, and ‘fantastic news’. It’s ‘making America great again’.

…whatever then actually happens with the project… WTF cares? Trump ‘can’t recall’ his own statements from ‘5 minutes earlier’…

As next, being a gorilla means threatening around too. Because that’s ‘making America great gain’, as well. Better than Obama. Correspondingly, Trump went on to ‘stress’, the F-47 will be offered to allies, but only in (at least) ‘10% downgraded form’, because, you know, one can’t know if they are going to remain allies…

Makes me wonder how important was the fact that Boeing was lately in troubles because nearly every single of its designs currently in production is suffering from problems related to insufficient research and design, and poor quality control – all of which were sacrificed in the name of extracting higher profits?

…which, for anybody having to regularly deal with what was left of the US industry, is, actually, nothing new: in order to extract higher profits, the USA have outsourced its production abroad, already decades ago. No surprise what’s left of that industry is driven by extracting profits, can’t soberly research and design, and has poor quality control…

Makes me also wonder how important is the fact that the US Air Force is not delighted about immense costs of operating F-35s, while in turn receiving a type that is still struggling to reach better full mission capability (FMC) -rate than 50%.

What is the FMC and why does it matter?

The FMC stands for the statistics about how many of jets acquired are operational on average. See, if your air force has got, say, 20 F-35s, a FMC rate of 50% means that only 10 of them are fully mission capable on average.

…and, well, if you buy a (very expensive and luxurious) car, but you can use it only 50% of the time you need it… and, it turns out that this splendid new car is usually not operational precisely when you need it the most… well, then it’s about the time to start wondering WTF did you pay for it.

That’s at least the way you, estimeed reader, and me might think. Our politicians didn’t think that way when buying F-35s, though.

Now, why is the FMC-rate of the F-35 so low? Because it has proven far more complex and costly to maintain and operate than Lockheed-Martin was bragging it would be. Because the Lockheed-Martin was fabricating figures for the purpose of pitching its type, exactly the way major corporations in ‘the West’ are doing for decades already – all in order to increase the worth of their shares.

…which is something about which there were countless warnings over the last decades. But, why should have anybody listen? Political masters of so many countries were still dumb enough to pay for it – using taxpayer’s money.

Of course, Lockheed-Martin is solemnly swearing this is not truth, and it’s supporting and committed, and dedicated and whatever else, and there are about 2.85 million explanations about all the possible reasons, but: the fact is that as much as delighted by the jet’s capabilities, air forces operating F-35 are ‘not happy’ with it. Because these are more complex to maintain and operate than ‘expected’ (see: calculated and bragged about by Lockheed-Martin). This is even more valid for air forces of so many foreign customers – who, BTW, have contributed so much money and know-how necessary for the research and development of the type, and are involved in its production (i.e. manufacturing different of parts, sub-assemblies, and software for F-35s), only to now find themselves facing the fact that the USA (read: the wise and reliable ally in form of President Trump) can ‘turn off’ their F-35s by, literally, doing as little as ‘clicking on that kill switch’.

…all of which is bad news, while Trump II Administration has only one objective: great news. Because great news are making America great again…

***

That much about politics. Lets move over to military requirements… where, actually, it’s already since several decades that these do not matter. What does matter is what the CEOs of top corporations in the defence sector think for what should the politicians waste taxpayer’s money. Whether the results of the project then turn out to be what they were promising in return… or something massively overpriced while not working….? Well, see the F-35…

With other words: instead of the armed services explaining the industry what they actually need, the corporations are promising armed services something they think they can make work – and then force these to buy. Because, between others, that’s ‘saving jobs’, you know.

….because all the shareholders are so concerned about saving jobs, that they’ve outsourced production abroad…

And the top brass of the armed forces is then obliged to (re)write corresponding requirements… or it’s not going to deftly cash once it retires from military service – usually as CEOs of different corporations and think-tanks.

It’s really that simple.

Of course, things in regards of military requirements are getting even more complex considering how advanced is the modern-day high-technology. Often so much that military services have no trace of an idea what they might need in some kind of future conflict, and even less so about what the industry and technology can (at least in theory) deliver. This is so because the mass of military services in ‘the West’ have not fought a single war against a ‘peer’ opponent in something like 80 years, while the highly-paid people advising them excel only in the discipline of commenting commentary. Means: they all have no trace of clue what exactly they might need if, for example, anybody from ‘the West’ might end up fighting an opponent like the PRC… or the Russian Federation.

Don’t make a mistake: the industry has no clue either. But, it’s excelling at advertising and bribing.

***

Which is bringing me to the issue of technology…

Trump said – and the Chief of Staff of the US Air Force de-facto repeated that – that a ‘demonstrator’ (for the F-47) is flying for ‘more than five years’.

This is so important, I cannot emphasise it enough. For Trumpists. It is important because it means that the F-47 is the ‘first 6^th Generation fighter to fly’.

It means the USA are the first.

Not the PRC.

As such, that stands for: ‘America is great again’ and that ‘fact’ is therefore bragged up and down the social- and mainstream media, too.

How much is this true is hard to gauge. Fact is: the mass of technology guessed as being used in the F-47 project was envisaged, researched, and developed secretly. See: as a part of different ‘black projects’. Projects funded by the Pentagon, but never officially revealed in the public.

Arguably, a few of these did become known in the meantime. That’s a few of different projects run by the DARPA: the Defence Advanced Research Projects Agency (of the USA). Perhaps one of the best-known results of these is the Aurora Flight Sciences X-65: a full-scale technology demonstrator for what is known as the CRANE. That stands for Control of revolutionary Aircraft with Novel Effectors:

A model of the DARPA Crane design, made for wind-tunnel testing.

Essentially, the CRANE is a design made to demonstrate something called ‘active flow control’. This means that contrary to what the aircraft are using ever since the Wright Brothers catapulted their Flier down the beach at Kitty Hawk, back in 1903, aircraft with the ‘active flow control’ are not using control surfaces (fins/rudders, flaps, canards, leading edge extensions, slats, etc.), this new design is using a sort of ‘jets’ - pipes blowing hot air – from a pressurized source, to shape the flow of air over the aircraft control surface. The control of the aircraft in roll, pitch, and yaw is thus obtained by distributing several such jets around the airframe, and these blowing as and when necessary.

Why doing this?

Because it’s eliminating the necessity for moving parts in form of control mechanisms and steering surfaces. Because that’s making the construction of the aircraft simpler and lighter: no need for steering controls, no need for complex hydraulics and servos moving the control surfaces, just for example. That, so they say, is ‘significantly reducing weight, complexity, and thus the maintenance requirements’ of the aircraft, while – at least theoretically – promising to improve its flight performances.

How comes?

Ah, that part is simple physical laws, resulting in the fact that any aircraft with lighter construction can fly faster, higher and – especially – further.

…on the other hand, one is left to wonder if anybody really wants to fly a ‘stealth’ fighter jet that’s full of hot holes blowing hot air all over its structure in order to enable it to manoeuvre…

But, hey: this is the time of Trumpism. Lets not waste time and energy with considering such ambient sounds…

BTW, except for the Aurora, another of contracts for such designs is known to have been issued to the BAE Systems, which designed the MAGMA drone, demonstrated in 2019. That one looks like this:

***

One of principal issues in the case of any projects of this kind is that of its price tag. AFAIK, nobody mentioned this in clear, but the Chief of Staff USAF, said something like that the F-47 should ‘cost less than Lockheed-Martin F-22’.

If truth, that would be quite an achievement - especially considering the F-22 is meanwhile some 30+ years old…

…while voices spreading fake news, I guess, have it that a single F-47 is going to cost ‘as much as three F-35s’ – which would move its single unit cost beyond US$ 300 million. Add the (Trump-inducted) inflation, and it’s going to be more. But hey: who cares about the Trumpists wasting taxpayer’s money? Musk is going to cover up everything with help of his DOGE. And that in addition to flourishing from doing exactly what is the actual principal purpose of that DOGE: to establish him in position of monopoly. Read: he’s cancelling federal contracts with other major enterprises (yes, in the USA), and contracting himself instead.

Which, in Trumpism, is entirely unimportant. Important is only that you, dear taxpayer, diligently pay your taxes and have a memory of the fish. Thanks a lot. Much more important is that revealing this F-47 is such great television. Super news. Making America great again…

….and then, the jet is made by Boeing, and thus it’s sure: nothing can go wrong.

***

…which is returning me to Trumpism: in its own official release about the F-47, Boeing is claiming credits for aircraft it never designed. Like North American P-51 Mustang, McDonnell F-4 Phantom, McDonnell-Douglas F-15 Eagle, McDonnell-Douglas F/A-18 Hornet… Sure, hair-splitters are going to say, but hey, over the time Boeing bought corporations that used to design and manufacture such aircraft, therefore it has the right to claim that. Where, actually, the last of Boeing’s own fighter designs were such like the overweight and slow XP-29, or the overweight and unreliable XF8B – both so immensely successful that neither ever entered series production, some 70-90 years ago….

Boeing XP-29… was meant as an improved P-26, but ‘didin’t really work’…

…while the Boeing XF8B was a design where neither Boeing nor the US Navy knew is it a torpedo bomber (a task for which it was overpowered) or a fighter (a task for which it was underpowered and too large)…

But hey: Boeing was a sub-contractor in so many of recent projects, and thus knows what is it doing. Even more so because since it bought up the former McDonnell-Douglas, it’s the owner of the factory in St Louis still manufacturing F-15s and F/A-18s. Therefore, Boeing is the right choice. And has the right to claim whatever it wants.

Even more so in the era of Trumpism…

***

Having discussed the backgrounds and context, lets move to the ‘looks’ of the F-47. The – heavily photoshopped – illustrations released by Trump & Co KG GesmbH AG, are showing a design blending some of Boeing’s earlier experimental designs, ‘but’ - with canards:

I.e. plan-form-wise, something like this:

On the contrary, Trump’s Deputy Chief of Staff of the White House, has released this:

…which is particularly surprising because that design is not only lacking canards visible on illustrations released by Trump, but - if one adds canards - closely reminiscent of something recently released by AIRBUS in relation to the FCAS (Future Combat Aircraft System), and looking something like this:

…but, then, back during the times of the Trump I Administration, Trumpists were also celebrating the US Navy with photos of Russian Navy’s warships… (and, not to be outdone: Putin’s PRBS-industrialists are often praising the Russian armed forces with photos of US warships, aircraft, or scenes from Iwo Jima in 1945)…

***

Overall, one can expect this F-47 to be a single-seater, slightly smaller than F-22 (but with, apparently, an unusually large cockpit transparency for a jet of its size… guess, that’s ‘yet another pro-stealth’ feature); less than 20m long; to weight between 20 and 40 tons empty and full, respectively; to be capable of reaching – and maintaining over extended periods of time – speeds well over Mach 2 at operational altitudes up to 70,000ft (21,300m), perhaps even higher; while carrying either 6-8 air-to-air-, or 2-4 air-to-surface weapons in its internal bays… and still be relatively manoeuvrable at slower speeds.

Why all of that? Because that’s what can be deducted on basis of what is known about it by now.

And yes: I doubt it’s ever going to be exported. At least not under the current administration in the White House – which, gauging by its own actions of the last two months, is not intending to let anybody ever replace it. At least not in a democratic, peaceful fashion. Instead, Boeing can now extract higher profits while saving on research, development, and quality control while depending on the DOGE to cover-up any kind of cost over-runs, which are meanwhile not only ‘the norm’ for projects of this kind, but the rule.

Again: all of this is a subscription to Trumpism. And the US-Americans - as well as citizens of any countries the governments of which might still be as stupid as to pay for this - are going to be so kind and pay. And then quickly forget about the entire story. Because the Trumpism is going to forget about it, and then amaze everybody with its next TV-show…

***

Ah, and those with serious interest in ‘Ukraine’ might now wonder: and, how is that related to Ukraine?

Not the least. Right now, it doesn’t look like Ukraine might ever ‘get’ something of this kind from the USA. But, and foremost: contrary to their government (which is always lagging between 12 and 24 months behind), the Ukrainians are already a few steps ahead. Instead of wasting time and trillions on super-turbo-superstar fighter jets, they’re working on AI-controlled swarms of interceptor UAVs. Which is the only logical alternative to all the over-expensive, yet limited in capabilities, and actually obsolete ‘air defence systems’ supplied to them by the ‘wise’ and ‘highly experienced’ – indeed: better-knowing – ‘the West’, over the last three years.

The only question is whether this is going to be rushed into service sooner, rather than later?

Like in so many similar cases that might appear as depending on connections and bribery. To their endless luck (and our shame, here in ‘the West’): the Ukrainians are meanwhile experts in evading even such obstacles.