Don's Weekly, 9 October 2023; Part 2

Kherson/Crimea

Russian depots, command posts and bases that were hit last week…

https://twitter.com/Misfit4Ukr68491/status/1708727312756453444

A Russian strike destroyed two inoperative planes at an airbase near Mykolaiv, but also killed two on the ground…

https://twitter.com/Misfit4Ukr68491/status/1708680562750459995

A Ukrainian base and train (probably carrying ammo) was hit by drones in the Mykoliav area…

https://twitter.com/WarTracking/status/1708032577204785606

A United Russia party official in the Russian-held town of Nova Kakhovka in the Kherson oblast was killed in a car explosion on Saturday, the Russian-installed regional governor said. Vladimir Malov, executive secretary of the town branch of Russia’s governing United Russia party, died in hospital, Vladimir Saldo said in a post on his Telegram channel. Saldo called the explosion a “terrorist attack”, meaning he was putting the blame on Ukraine. Kyiv has not claimed responsibility.

Ukrainian special forces conducted raids on Kinburn spit, Tendra spit and the west coast of Crimea. This video shows the boats and jet skis used in the raid on Crimea. Very few details, but Ukraine says they caused significant damage to Russian forces before withdrawing and that Russia pursued them with small craft, leading to an exchange of fire on the ocean. Ukraine reported they had no casualties…

https://twitter.com/Osinttechnical/status/1710038815220568072

Kherson and the right bank is hit with a dozen bombs a day…

https://twitter.com/Gerashchenko_en/status/1709248173208735999

Partisans have been filming prepared but unmanned Russian positions and firing point in Crimea, including this one near Feodosia…

https://twitter.com/Gerashchenko_en/status/1709890220361916451

Black Sea

As part of the sanctions, Russia was cut off from the Society for Worldwide Interbank Financial Telecommunications (SWIFT) system. SWIFT is a vast messaging network used by financial institutions to quickly, accurately, and securely send and receive information, such as money transfer instructions. Being connected to this system would help Russia evade sanctions, so they made connecting the Russian State Agricultural Bank to SWIFT a condition for continuing the grain deal.

This concession was not granted so Russia withdrew from the grain deal and started intense attacks on Ukraine’s port infrastructure. This not only hurt Ukraine’s economy, it had the potential to raise the price of grain causing a food shortage worldwide. The richer nations would be able to secure their food so it would be the poorer nations that would suffer. Russia hoped that the resulting humanitarian crisis would create enough pressure to force the west to let the Russian agricultural bank to be connected to SWIFT.

Ukraine could ship it overland but that would cost $2.75 per mile while transporting by ship only costs $0.80 per mile. A ton of wheat is only worth $345, so long overland transits aren’t financially viable. Moving the grain by ship was the only practical solution. In order to prevent a humanitarian crisis, produce revenue for Ukraine and eliminate Russia’s leverage for being reconnected to SWIFT, Ukraine needed to push the Russian navy out of the western Black Sea and continue loading grain on transports despite the ongoing missile and drone attacks on the port infrastructures. Capturing the oil rigs and conducting the missile attacks against Sevastopol did force the Russian fleet to move to eastern ports in order to survive…https://www.dailykos.com/stories/2023/10/3/2196511/-Ukraine-Update-Global-food-security-depends-on-Ukraine-winning-the-Battle-of-the-Black-Sea?fbclid=IwAR1wautWmwfeKU583TSAAmPAuuXtz4dT5M7HNdvuw_zw4cX2XZ1J8MxUH0Y

And early reports indicate that Ukrainian grain shipments are returning to previous levels. When Russia was participating in the Grain Deal, Ukraine was able to receive and load five ships a day. As it turns out, Ukraine can still receive and load up to five ships a day. A sample from October 1st showed three ships departing and five ships arriving from ships registered to seven different countries, including one from China…https://www.facebook.com/permalink.php?story_fbid=pfbid02VUV8kEvXmx1agGQDFLmGAxsBYAKLeGLwXEbDjwtKZkRKXH2UUzRP18dTbLyTFFJel&id=100003576664760

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Ammo

Russia started with an estimated 15 million artillery shells, produced one million shells last year and will produce 1.5 million this year. On the other side of the ledger, they started the war firing 63k shells a day. As stockpiles dwindled (and Russia lost over 5,000 guns) Russia is now firing 12k shells a day and is projected to fire only 7k a day by the end of the year. The end result is they may only have 700k rounds left in their stockpiles at the end of the year. This is why they are looking for ammo from North Korea or wherever they can find some. At North Korea’s border Tumangang rail facility with Russia there were 70 rail cars, considered unprecedented as there had only been at most 20 cars previously.

On the other hand, Russian drone production is increasing. Drones are Russia’s most effective means of counter-battery fire, and while they do not replace Russia’s diminishing firepower from artillery they are having a significant impact on the battlefield. Ukraine’s unarmored military and civilian support vehicles are particularly vulnerable and they have lost quite a few of them. Ukrainian personnel and armored vehicles try to increase their chance of survival through camouflage.

https://twitter.com/HerrDr8/status/1708813665174982674/photo/3

Over the course of the war, Ukraine has doubled its rate of fire from 4k rounds a day to 8k rounds a day. Before the year is out, Ukraine may actually end up firing more rounds than Russia on a daily basis. Currently, Russia is outshooting Ukraine 3:2 in terms of shells, but western artillery and Ukrainian fire direction control is generally more accurate than their Russian counterparts, and the DPICM round is very effective when compared to the standard HE round. Because of that, Ukrainian artillery is already having a bigger impact than Russian artillery.

But Ukraine would like to fire at an even higher rate but it’s already using more than than the allies are producing. Thanks to the release of the DPICM rounds, they can fire at this level of intensity for some months to come, but a higher tonnage of explosives on Russian positions would cause even more casualties, maybe to the point where they could not replace them fast enough.

It’s been at least 18 months of missed opportunities. Ukraine’s government hasn’t maximized their own internal production capabilities. Western governments haven’t committed to enough contracts. The defense industry won’t take the financial risk to build factories before they receive the contracts.

And then there’s the decades of national protectionism where countries make “standard” rounds that are optimized for the gun or mortar they produce. As a result, the 155mm round is able to be fired in other guns of the same caliber, but the different characteristics means Ukraine has to constantly change their calculations for accurate fire every time they are resupplied by another nation’s round. Some of the mortar rounds won’t fit in another tube of the same caliber until the fins are filed down. It is a NATO requirement that rounds be interchangeable between allied systems and these widespread domestic decisions directly impacted NATO capabilities…https://kyivindependent.com/investigation-eu-inability-to-ramp-up-production-behind-acute-ammunition-shortages-in-ukraine/?fbclid=IwAR1RkWbeB680f1EmFdTZQK01Sco64paa_9r04lWxET1QpkQXylA0frUWNQ

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Ukraine’s History of Military Reform

At independence, Ukraine inherited an army of 800,000 personnel, with thousands of tanks and 2,500 nuclear weapons. It could not pay for such a force, so it was reduced in size and then that was hollowed out by corruption. By 2014 it had an army of 130,000, but only 6,000 were combat ready. Of its 800 tanks, only a dozen were usable. Only 15% of its planes could fly. When Russia annexed Ukraine, 70% of army units and 70% of its naval ships joined the Russian military. When its army fell apart, Ukraine’s citizens joined the fight and raided armories for their weapons. From there, Ukraine conducted a fight against Russians, separatists and corruption to try and save their country, and they worked on reforming their army while confronting these three threats. It’s an effort that they’re still struggling with now, even after so much progress, and it’s documented in this article…https://www.bushcenter.org/catalyst/the-fix/how-ukraine-remade-its-military?s=08&fbclid=IwAR3jV8kzs6CJ6E6f3KaFROZEhLAtszsxpDbHOisZ_HcxFZW5o_9BceEJnkU

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Russian Drones

The number of attacks by Iranian drones increased sharply in September…

https://twitter.com/konrad_muzyka/status/1707780936329224421/photo/1

SensusQ did analysis on some Russian drones. Their designs are similar to existing Israeli drones:

• Lancet Loitering Munition, 40 km range, proximity fuse, HE or HE fragmentation warhead…https://www.sensusq.com/blog/286294ac-9ded-414e-8d32-d8a23ea2ec83

• Orlan-10 Reconnaissance, small munitions, 120 km range, https://www.sensusq.com/blog/0908603f-69a8-4951-8e7b-bce3a1a8c575

• Orlan-20 Reconnaissance, small munitions,120 km range…https://www.sensusq.com/blog/20d6f398-1865-439c-a204-1c47ccefd863

• Lastochka Reconnaissance, small munitions, 40 km range…https://www.sensusq.com/blog/0509abf3-f279-401a-b52c-c533ebf72a75

• Zala family of reconnaissance drones, 25-50km… https://www.sensusq.com/blog/sensusq-analysis-on-the-zala-421-16e-zala-421-16e2-andzala-421-16em-reconnaissance-uavs?fbclid=IwAR0myfcfY4RgcVUEwtHMMU2tVTm2-0gZBqHPD7LUReUSfx0aTlT0ab8bOYM

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Long Range Russian Attacks

From October 2022 to April 2023, Russia attacked Ukraine’s energy grid with 1,200 missiles and drones. About 250 of them hit, causing $10 billion in damage and damaging or destroying 22 of 36 power plants. 12 million civilians were affected by power outages and the average Ukrainian household lost power off and on for a total of five weeks. On August 13th, Ukraine had repaired 62-86% of the various categories of infrastructure to pre-war capabilities. Hospitals, schools and kindergartens were at 86% and were expected to be at 100% by now. There will be less backup capabilities in the public sector this winter as transformers take a year to build and Russia can destroy them fairly quickly. The private sector bought 670,000 generators as personal backup systems. The power grid was built in the Soviet era so the Russian engineers know the weak points. “Those people used to be our colleagues and partners, and now they are the enemies and war criminals who use their knowledge to make millions of people suffer,” said a Ukrainian energy company official. Many experts say that Ukraine needs to build decentralized backup power generators over time to lower the risk of power outages.

On September 21st, Russia attacked a number of Ukrainian energy sites for the first time in six months and there is every expectation that they will conduct more this winter. While Ukraine isn’t fully recovered from last winter’s attacks, they have been stockpiling transformers and they have stronger, but still insufficient, air defenses than a year ago. In addition to the Patriot, NASAMS, Iris-T and SAMP-T air defense systems that intercept missiles, the German-supplied Gepard has been very effective against drones. By December, the number of Gepards will have been more than doubled to 82 vehicles. In addition, 160 Australian Slingers, with similar capabilities to the Gepard, and the first ten will arrive in December, as well. 110 of them will be mounted on M113s, which suggests they may be deployed just behind the front lines to protect personnel and equipment. The light Slinger system can also be deployed on a civilian truck, which would have greater mobility and lesser maintenance issues than an M113 in a civilian defense role…

https://twitter.com/RALee85/status/1708964749831000340…https://www.technology.org/2023/06/26/ukraine-double-number-of-gepard-guns/…

Over the course of the war, Russian missile attacks have declined but their drone attacks have increased. 87% of the 2227 drones and 77% of the 1673 cruise missiles have been intercepted while only 42% of the 67 ballistic missiles have been intercepted. The interception rate is roughly the same regardless of whether 10 or 130 missiles and drones were launched…

https://twitter.com/FRHoffmann1/status/1709191669630058527

25 civilians were reported injured when two missiles hit Kharkiv…https://www.facebook.com/hromadskeua/posts/pfbid02Z97wgFELM5a87MyYf7mEehF6G9ZGwjacGzj7zSRWrDjfWEKJgBzHjvbMMXc9NHQCl

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Equipment

Few of the western tanks that have been knocked out were catastrophically destroyed. The lightly damaged vehicles were repaired close to the front line. The heavily damaged vehicles were sent to Poland for repairs. The first of these vehicles is now being sent back to Ukraine…

https://twitter.com/PGZ_pl/status/1708826673905311753

From 2017-2021, Russia was supposed to produce 270 T-90 tanks. At the end of 2021 they had produced 80. In 2022, they produced 60. In nine months of 2023, they produced 52, for a total of 192 of the 270 tanks that were supposed to be completed by 2021…

https://twitter.com/JanR210/status/1708450360283504750

Ukraine says they will begin joint production with the US of an unnamed air defense system inside their country…https://nv.ua/ukr/ukraine/events/shcho-mozhe-zabezpechiti-efektivniy-zahist-portovoji-infrastrukturi-vidpovid-vms-zsu-50358185.html

Turkey supplied Ukraine with 600 heavy machine guns…https://www.middleeasteye.net/news/turkey-ukraine-supplies-hundreds-heavy-machine-guns

Another Patriot battery from Germany will be sent to Ukraine sometime this winter…

https://twitter.com/deaidua/status/1709968701179441600

Spain will send six 60-year-old Hawk air defense batteries to Ukraine. Jane’s says that it has an 85% chance to shoot down a short-range tactical missile…

https://twitter.com/front_ukrainian/status/1709963100667928775

Russian airliners are increasingly having problems maintaining their aircraft due to sanctions. It’s probably not a good time to fly in Russia…

https://twitter.com/Gerashchenko_en/status/1709171833323266339

On the other hand, French equipment was in a Russian tank built last year. It is not just French equipment. Sanctions can be avoided by selling to parties in a non-sanctioned country who then pass it on to Russia…

https://twitter.com/thetoitoi/status/1709131660267003968

A driver’s view of the PzH-2000…

https://twitter.com/Osinttechnical/status/1710403137041797576

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Diplomacy

NATO believes that 300,000 personnel would be sufficient to deal with Russia if a conflict between them broke out. Also, they are likely to increase their air defense systems in the next ten years. Presumably, they will expand their stockpiles, as well…https://www.ukrinform.ua/rubric-world/3769263-nato-rozrobilo-regionalni-plani-proti-rosii-ta-teroristiv-golova-vijskovogo-komitetu.html

The long process of Ukraine joining the EU will begin in December…https://www.politico.eu/article/ukraine-eu-membership-ukraine-accession-talks-december/

Yet another threat by a Russian to absorb former Soviet states. After the last 100 years, it’s no wonder why they joined NATO…

https://twitter.com/NOELreports/status/1709265619189735708

Almost all ethnic Aremenians have left Nagorno-Karabakh. “Several” remain. The Russian peacekeepers are still at their base…

I don’t have any context for why the Belarus dictator said the Zelensky is acting appropriately, although last week a Russian politician said that eventually all former Soviet states would return to Russia voluntarily or otherwise and Belarus was one of the countries mentioned specifically…

https://twitter.com/Gerashchenko_en/status/1710670901530820714

Bulgaria joins Norway, Finland, Estonia, Latvia, Lithuania and Poland in banning entry to their country any car with a Russian license plate…

https://twitter.com/Gerashchenko_en/status/1708773656262791391

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Russian Fires

After the sound of explosions, a substation near Kursk is on fire…

https://twitter.com/Gerashchenko_en/status/1709998977578340582

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Recruitment Videos

One of Russia’s latest recruitment videos…

https://twitter.com/Gerashchenko_en/status/1709254411275440547

This one is promising free land in Odesa after the war…

https://twitter.com/Gerashchenko_en/status/1709142482749960361

Ukraine answers their recruitment videos…

https://twitter.com/Gerashchenko_en/status/1708916282244857971

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Misc.

Deep State, which publishes the map I often use, provided their summary of the state of the war…

https://twitter.com/RALee85/status/1708316924197609878

Two laser-guided rounds are delivered to a Ukrainian self-propelled gun. Either a drone or someone on the front lines illuminates the target with a laser and the artillery shell is guided towards the end of the beam…

https://twitter.com/externalPilot/status/1710219465877606867

A Ukrainian medic shares his experience with a patient and the tools of the trade…https://www.facebook.com/igor.krivoruchko.5/posts/pfbid0DFyCwKghvmYkw4gCvxwQVAuLw8JxpYSipFRL6kjhwdfDtmpA121cTcbTuVUZgcPFl

The medic at this casualty collection point came from Moscow to save Ukrainian lives…

https://twitter.com/Kochevenko/status/1708355816695209993

In the opening days of the war, a war crime is documented as civilians are shot on a road. There is an article in the tweet…

https://twitter.com/Gerashchenko_en/status/1708455450692264398

The Russians claim that two Ukrainian jets flew 50 km into Russia to drop bombs near Bryansk. They are now filing a criminal case against those involved in the attack for illegally crossing the border and conducting a terrorist attack that endangered the lives of ten civilians…

https://twitter.com/front_ukrainian/status/1708810319403827442

A UK-supplied air defense system shoots down a Russian drone near the front lines…

https://twitter.com/NOELreports/status/1708040337522925604

A Russian drone was stopped by a camouflage net…https://www.facebook.com/reel/2296789713862550

These are the dates and locations of the five Russian planes shot down by friendly fire, including the two in September…

https://twitter.com/Gerashchenko_en/status/1710638706120421742/photo/1

Russian social media reports another friendly fire incident after a jet crashes near Mariupol. The cause of the crash is unconfirmed…

https://twitter.com/Gerashchenko_en/status/1710290364819554587

An incomplete list of journalists and commentators that feed into Russian propaganda…https://fakesperts.theins.ru/

This article says that 10% of Russians use drugs, from marajuana and hash to bath salts to intravenous drugs that sometimes result in overdoses. Many of the users used drugs before they were shipped to Ukraine and while some drugs are smuggled from Russia, most are supplied locally by citizens or separatists. In occupied territories, demand drove up drug prices from 2.5 to 6 times the pre-war cost. In some instances, local drug dealers are beaten and tortured for their product. In others, FSB agents took dealers into a room and everyone emerged unharmed after agreements were made.

Some units ignore the problem, saying it’s just a few soldiers using marajuana. Others crack down on it with searches and urine samples, which is often evaded by providing urine from a non-user. Those that are caught are sent to a penal battalion and used as a stormtrooper, which is virtually a death sentence, no trial needed…https://verstka.media/kak-rossiyskie-soldaty-upotrebliayut-narkotiki-na-voyne

The Ukrainians changed the last nuclear reactor status from a hot shutdown to a cold shutdown to reduce the chance of a nuclear mishap. The Russians just put it back into hot shutdown mode…https://biz.liga.net/all/tek/novosti/na-zaes-rossiyane-pereveli-energoblok-4-v-goryachiy-rejim-eto-usililo-veroyatnost-avarii?fbclid=IwAR3-PMgp2hBmih-3XSC5qMIiJZeZ6y9iOthtxheZLQKrOCEJtZSBrAJxA2M

A former POW medic is interviewed a year after her release…

https://twitter.com/Gerashchenko_en/status/1710396699938558264

An economist-turned-medic helps civilians when Russians shell them in the Donetsk region…

https://twitter.com/Gerashchenko_en/status/1708858837434810879

If you have a captured Russian tank that isn’t functioning, it makes sense to call Russian tech support. The conversation ended when a Russian factory director asked him to describe the problems in detail on WhatsApp which would reveal that the call came from a Ukrainian phone.

One of the phone calls ends with both the Russian and Ukrainian laughing…

https://twitter.com/Gerashchenko_en/status/1709206136065302600