Don's Weekly, 9 October 2023, Part 1

Hello everybody!

Here the next issue of Don’s weekly, essentially covering the week from 2 to 8 October 2023.

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Overview

Ukraine conducted three amphibious raids from the Black Sea. There were few territorial changes and those that happened were small. A Russian attack on civilians resulted in one of the highest casualty rates of the war for a single attack.

This week I added regional maps showing airstrikes, artillery strikes and drone attacks as recorded by Andrew Perpetua. He geolocates Ukrainian government reports and videos on a map each day and while it cannot be 100% complete, it does provide a very good indication of intensity by location and weapon type. He also records Ukrainian strikes but neither the Ukrainian or Russian government comments on them so he can only use video evidence.

Russia

Russia knows Ukraine will not send conventional forces of Ukrainian nationals across the border so they garrison the border with just enough to minimize the damage from Russians and Poles fighting for Ukraine.

After another patrol into Belgorod, pro-Ukrainian forces claimed 5 Russians killed and 13 wounded…

https://twitter.com/legion_svoboda/status/1709807138233549177

Western Luhansk

Attritional warfare continues but Russian attempts to gain territory have failed.

A Czech drone operator fighting for Ukraine shows how they are constantly looking for Russian artillery while the Russian artillery is constantly looking for them…

https://twitter.com/VozimDrony/status/1708717887832154322

Northwest of Kreminna, the 25th Airborne brigade destroys a Russian BMP…

https://twitter.com/NOELreports/status/1710616319610290619

The crew of a tank from the 25th Airborne talk about their experiences shelling Russian targets…

https://twitter.com/wartranslated/status/1710253483524251662

18 km northwest of Svatove, two Ukrainian drones combine to destroy a 152mm gun (49.585017, 38.003205…)

https://twitter.com/AlexRaptor94/status/1710560502223364465

21 km southwest of Svatove, a Russian T-90 on a solo direct fire mission is destroyed in front of the 66th brigade. Looking at the longer video (third in this thread), the tank is hit by something at the 9 second mark that seems to set off the smoke grenades on the right-hand side. After the tank fires three times, a puff of black smoke emerges at 20 seconds. The tank fires three more times and explodes at 34 seconds after struck by an ATGM. 49.220251, 38.025206…

https://twitter.com/Osinttechnical/status/1710918079633297841

A Russian vehicle, artillery piece and EW system are destroyed…

https://twitter.com/GloOouD/status/1710243931668046249

30 km from Kupiansk is the village of Hroza. Its prewar population of 330 shrank to 150 people and 52 of them were killed by a Russian missile while attending a wake for a Ukrainian soldier.

Two adults and two children are still missing and genetic testing is being conducted to determine if they were in the cafe. The dead soldier died last year in an artillery strike fighting elsewhere while his village was occupied by Russians. His body was disinterred to be reburied in his village where he was well-liked growing up. His entire family, his widow, daughter, son, daughter-in-law, the parents of the daughter-in-law, uncles, aunts and other relatives were all killed in the attack.

A day after the attack, workers used backhoes to grade the land around the cemetery in order to expand it so it could accommodate new graves. Family members reserved plots with wooden stakes, tape and the name of the person that was going to be buried there…https://www.nytimes.com/2023/10/06/world/europe/hroza-ukraine-missile-strike.html

A patriotic song plays on a damaged phone inside a body bag. About 60 villagers were at the dinner for the wake. 52 are now dead…

https://twitter.com/Gerashchenko_en/status/1710243739321434499

A collection of phones that will never be answered…

https://twitter.com/Gerashchenko_en/status/1710191999582716362

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Bakhmut

There is a report of a Ukrainian advance and Russian prisoners near Orikhovo-Vasylivka, but no details about how far that advance was. In the report below, Ukraine says that they seized the woods north of Klishchiivka and close to Bakhmut. And there are reports of Ukraine moving east of the railroad and north of Kurdiumivka but not how far these advances have progressed.

Ukraine’s 5th Assault brigade conducted an operation to clear the forest north of Klishchiivka. Control of that patch of forest would give it fire control over the approaches to Klishchiivka in the lower terrain to the immediate east, and a different view into the terrain just to the west of Opytne 3.5 km away.

The defences in this area have been fairly static for months but the Russian positions were disrupted by their repeated attacks into Klishchiivka. Prior to the assault, Ukrainian patrols scouted the route the vehicles were going to take and removed any mines they found. Since the road ran along the edge of a small forest that they controlled, that was relatively easy to do. During the assault, a tank moved off the road and into a field. This route could have been cleared by sappers at night, as they commonly do, and it might also have been scouted by drones looking for thermal differences between the mine and the grass around sunset.

In any case, the two APCs and tank moved quickly along the road at the forest’s edge and the tank split off to provide supporting fire from the field. The two APCs continued to the dismount location where the infantry moved along the treeline to the objective while the APCs turned around and returned along the same road. I don’t know why the Ukrainian infantry didn’t just walk to the dismount point since it was at the edge of the territory they controlled, but I also don’t have all the information that Ukraine had. There was a limited amount of Ukrainian artillery support on the objective as the APCs advanced to supplement the tank’s suppressive fires from the field. There was heavy Russian artillery and MLRS strikes, and one round landed 20 meters in front of an APC, but there didn’t appear to be any damage. The APC was aided by the fact that the Russian artillery was firing from the northeast of Bakhmut, so most of the splinter pattern crossed its front diagonally. If the artillery and been fired from the east the APC probably would have been hit by the splinters…

https://twitter.com/branflake2267/status/1710401879099019387

A compilation of drone attacks on 38 targets: https://twitter.com/Osinttechnical/status/1710481979576140260

Russians walking by a body on a stretcher are attacked by grenades from a drone…https://twitter.com/GloOouD

8 km northwest of Bakhmut, the 56th brigade collects POWs after a successful assault…

https://twitter.com/GloOouD/status/1710302825752695118

Ukrainian soldiers talk about taking Klishchiivka…https://twitter.com/Gerashchenko_en

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Donetsk

Russians near Avdiivka are harrassed by drone munitions. 48.210325, 37.705380…

https://twitter.com/GloOouD/status/1709823168062402687

Mokri Yali Valley

Russia launched a counter-attack 1 km east of Zavitne Bazhannia and lost six tanks, three BMPs and an estimated 30 dead to drones, javelins, mines, mortars and DPICM…

https://twitter.com/Danspiun/status/1708807245054501310

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Southern Ukraine

Robotyne

Ukraine is putting more pressure on the Kopani to widen the flanks. There are still reports of heavy fighting Novoprokopivka, Verbove, and the ridge line in between the two, but not a lot of visual evidence or reports about the change in territory. There are, however, plenty of reports of the heavy artillery fire and drone attacks from Ukraine. There are also a lot of Russian airstrikes and drone attacks, and there are a lot of Russian artillery attacks, but almost half of them are MLRS attacks. Almost all the Russian artillery attacks are defensive fires. Russian interdiction and counter-battery in this sector is conducted by airstrikes and drones.

Southwest of Tokmak, a Russian air defense system useful for shooting down reconnaissance drones was spotted by a reconnaissance drone and destroyed soon after. 47.145937, 35.627727…

https://twitter.com/PStyle0ne1/status/1708378056291697137

Ukraine discovered through a signals intercept that Russian reserves would be gathering 30 km south of the battlefield. A drone pinpointed their location and 5 BMPs, two trucks and an ammo dump was destroyed. 47.150175, 35.846264

https://twitter.com/Osinttechnical/status/1709087525560561958

A Leopard firing at sunset at Russian positions. Ukrainians often have western tanks fire at long range during the night or dawn to take advantage of their accuracy and night vision devices…

https://twitter.com/GloOouD/status/1710066503570075965

A month ago, Ukraine’s foreign minister, told how Robotyne was liberated: After two months of fighting a brigade (probably the 47th) was exhausted. The commander chose 31 motivated soldiers to form an assault force. A third of these had no combat experience. Their first mission was to take a tree line outside the village, which they did, driving the Russians out and holding it for two days until reinforcements arrived. The soldiers then marched for 10 km through multiple minefields to reach the village. Upon arriving, they paused to catch their breath and then stormed the Russian positions, driving them out and holding until the main forces arrived.

In the next 40 days, this unit conducted six assaults and two reconnaissance missions. Seven were wounded, including one that stepped on a mine. None were killed. Their actions greatly contributed to Ukraine’s advances on this front…

A Ukrainian radar used to determine the altitude of aircraft is destroyed by a drone…

https://twitter.com/WarVehicle/status/1708489365167460553

A Russian truck and 152mm SP artillery vehicle is destroyed during resupply…

https://twitter.com/UAWeapons/status/1709861744779153919

A cache of mines is detonated by a Ukrainian HE shell…

https://twitter.com/Osinttechnical/status/1710436121644081246

When a Russian vehicle is immobilized and Ukraine believes that Russia may recover it before they do, Ukraine tries to destroy it…

https://twitter.com/Osinttechnical/status/1710388209652261140

An Excalibur round was reportedly used to destroy a Russian 152mm gun in the vicinity of Verbove…

https://twitter.com/Osinttechnical/status/1710057756386857173

If you have enough ammo, you can destroy a lot of enemy formations. Ukraine’s 71st Jaeger brigade uses an HE round, followed by a DPICM round, followed by a drone, then another DPICM and another HE round. Not counting the body already on the ground, it looks like there were at least five dead and one wounded…

https://twitter.com/GloOouD/status/1711083131237797916

Four Russian tanks destroyed in one day by drones…

https://twitter.com/GloOouD/status/1710966603318284488

A Russian TOS-1 was destroyed…

https://twitter.com/GloOouD/status/1710603683069620279

A crew member of a Stryker vehicle of the 82nd brigade likes the speed, maneuverability and protection, especially compared to older vehicles, and he likes that the sensors tell him when an ATGM is aiming at his vehicle…

https://twitter.com/wartranslated/status/1710257397795524926

Somewhere near Kamianske, Ukraine’s 128th brigade advances through an exposed minefield towards a Russian position. Eight Russians were seen running away but five bodies remained on the field…

https://twitter.com/NOELreports/status/1710225719677034947