Don's Weekly, 9 February 2026: Part 1
by Donald Hill (intro by Tom Cooper)
Hello everybody!
While most of Ukrainian official- and unofficial outlets are boasting about having stopped the Russian advance, pilots of Ukrainian fighter-bombers meanwhile have to take risks to strike a bridge 7km north-west of Pokrovsk.
Leaves me wondering why destroying a bridge ‘used by the Russians for their attacks’ well outside the town, if the town is still ‘contested’.
Must be my incompetence, and the resulting inability to analyse this war. The same issues like when watching a video showing an Ukrainian F-16-pilot using the M61A1 Vulcan autocannon to shot down a Russian Geran attack-UAV (video-still below), and reading reports about the better part of Ukrainian MIM-104 Patriot and SAMP-T SAM-batteries standing idle for most of the last two weeks. All because they’re out of replacement missiles…
…and are short even on APKWS II laser-guided rockets, a few of which have reached Ukraine back in early December, as ‘confirmed’ by the following video still (showing LAU-131/A 7-round launchers installed on one of PSU’s F-16AMs, together with a suitable targeting system):
With this… well, that’s about ‘introduction’ for this morning. Me thinks, this is perfectly enough, saying everything left to say right now.
Over to Don.
Sumy
The (much-announced, at least in Russia) biiiiiiiiiig offensive didn’t really take place. Indeed, there was no movement north of Sumy. As mentioned a week ago, though: there has been a slowly increasing Russian incursion 45 km southeast of Sumy.
Vovchansk
There was no reported movement in the front lines.
The UAV-unit of the 72nd Mechanised Brigade, ZSU - established with help of your donations for the Rickshaws for the ZSU - used several drones to destroy a TOS-1, causing a nice little detonation…
A Buk air defense system was destroyed in Belgorod with what appears to be a BONUS 155 mm shell. The round was designed to destroy tanks. The BONUS round with base bleed (see below) has a timed fuse ejects two submunitions over the target area. Each submunition has winglets that spins the round as it descends. While spinning, it uses IR and LIDAR sensors to spot a vehicle. Once a vehicle is detected, the submunition fires an explosively formed projectile (a kind of a shaped charge) that penetrates the weak top armor of a vehicle. Two different targets can be potentially hit, as seen here in a demonstration video.
Kupiansk
Yes, sure: there are still few Russians inside Kupiansk, and they are attacked. There were a lot of Russian airstrikes and bombardents throughout the sector. Ukraine conducted an airstrike in Petropavilivka, which is usually reserved for larger concentrations of troops or enemy UAV-teams.
Lyman
The 81st Airmobile Brigade destroyed 11 artillery systems and other targets in the Serebryany forest last week.
Sloviansk
A Ukrainian towed 122 mm gun is hit. Ukrainian forces in Nykyforivka are attacked.
Kostiantynivka
Russian targets are hit. A Ukrainian tank is destroyed.
A Ukrainian soldier was captured in the gray zone by two Russians, one of which was severely wounded. After the Russians received no help, the wounded Russian died and the survivor asked his Ukrainian prisoner to contact his side for evacuation.
Two Russians decided to surrender and a Russian drone kills one of them.
Pokrovsk
Four Ukrainians were captured by seven Russians. More than ten Ukrainian drones killed, incapacitated or distracted the Russians and allowed the captive Ukrainians to escape.
Three Russian vehicles, including a captured M113, used the fog to approach Hryshynyne but were destroyed.
A Russian hanger of vehicles and horses is discovered. A Russian self-propelled gun is destroyed.
(…to be continued…)
Just - ín case someone is interested...the western public speech is mostly calling out that until we start seeing operational / theatre level break throughs there is nothing to speak - well attrition/coertion strategy is really working differently - the below article calls out how we can be blind - like ín case of Taiwan we expect a full fetched invasion - which makes little sense - like the 2022 Russian raid back in Ukraine - playing through strength the area denial is the right Chinese strategy - by the Way we should apply the same logic for understanding the Russian movements. Really good read...
https://warontherocks.com/2026/02/deterrence-wont-fail-in-the-taiwan-strait-it-will-be-bypassed/