Don's Weekly, 9 December 2024: Part 2

by Donald Hill

(…continued from Part 1…)

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Kurkahove

Considering what kind and how many assaults are the Russians conducting in this area, every single day - and that for months meanwhile - it’s actually astonishing to conclude that the lines, actually, barely moved since mid-November.

South of Lisivka, a Russian column runs into mines. Drones of the 46th Brigade take a toll on Russian units around Kurkakhove. GRAPHIC: To the south, the 79th Brigade also destroys Russian equipment and personnel. In turn, a HMMWV was destroyed in Kurakhove by a Russian drone.

Of course, regardless how slow are the Russian advances, and how massive their losses, the 79th Airborne is meanwhile at withdrawing in western direction, to avoid getting caught in another cauldron.

The 15th National Guard ‘Kara-Dag’ Brigade is a good-, well-trained unit. There’s just not enough of them. In one case, a drone unit was defending a village with little infantry support and they launched a drone to attack Russian infantry just 30 meters away.

There is a lots of talk about shortages of manpower within the Ukrainian Armed Forces. Actual fact is that the General Staff of Ukraine is systemically failing to manage the available manpower efficiently. Selydove was a town of 21,000 people before the war and the 15th could only spare 60 men to defend it. They were encircled and had to retreat with casualties. Right before the battle for Selydove they were sent 300 recruits without any training: the generals in Kyiv obvioiusly expected the troops in question to ‘learn by doing’ while fighting in the trenches.

Ukrainian drones are causing massive casualties to the Russians, but if they don’t kill the entire assault team then there is not enough infantry to kill off the survivors. This is what then enabled the Russians to advance: as long as anybody from their assault treams is alive, they immediately start reinforcing and the same cycle begins again.

And when soldiers are unsupported with squads to their left and right, they tend to fall back faster so they won’t get surrounded. The 60 men at Selydove stood, fought and paid the price. This is why establishing ever additional brigades when there is not enough personnel to reinforce the existing ones is making no sense. Moreover, sending untrained personnel to the frontlines is not only inexcusable but certain to lead to high casualties.

Actually, these are very basic concepts, and factors very much within the control of the GenStab-U. ‘Even’ the commanders of the insurgent Command of Military Operations in Idlib, in Syria, have learned such lessons, drawn corresponding conclusions, re-formed their units, and trained all their troops to the same standard before sending them to the battle. Only the Ukrainian generals are - ‘stoically’ - refusing to learn any kind of lessons (and that for, meanwhile, nearly three years).

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Velyka Novosilka

The Russians occupied Novy Komar, cutting off Velyka Novosilka from the northern roads. Three days later, the 48th Separate Assault Battalion attacked and reclaimed the village and the surviving Russian infantry retreated.

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Kherson

With artillery and drones, Russia continues the deliberate hunt of civilians in the Kherson area. 38 have been killed and over 500 wounded since late June - and Ukraine has no solution in hand.

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Occupied Ukraine

In Mariupol, Russian police searched 850 homes and set up checkpoints, stopping 48 cars with Ukrainian license plates. Residents were told to get Russian passports and Russian license plates immediately or face some unspecified consequences. The main objective was to find members of the resistance.

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Ukraine

Zelensky says that 43,000 Ukrainians have been killed and 370,000 have been wounded in the war by now.

The number of Shahed drones (red) used in Ukraine has significantly increased since August. The glide bombs (yellow) have decreased since mid-November. The cruise missiles (blue) are used periodically. In addition, Russia is only firing 1.5 artillery shells for every shell Ukraine fires.

The 123rd Territorial Defense Brigade had been fighting for three years without a single rotation to rest and repair. As reported several times since August, when the Russians were approaching Vuhledar the GenStab-U sent them in that direction with the hopes of slowing the enemy down. They had automatic rifles and said that 150 tanks were promised to support them but, in fact, there were only 20. Feeling betrayed, hundreds of the infantry abandoned their positions and returned to their homes in Mykolayiv. They held a public protest demanding weapons and training. A spokesman of the ZSU said the unit was fully equipped with weapons. Since then, some returned to the front, some are in hiding, and some are in pre-trial detention.

They weren’t the only ones to desert. 60,000 personnel deserted from January to October in 2024, almost twice as many that deserted in 2022 and 2023 combined. Some desert while training in allied countries. (12 leave each month from Polish bases). Almost all the deserters are worn out from fighting on the front line and 20% of them eventually return to their units. Ukraine’s parliament passed a law that drops desertion charges against first time offenders if they return to combat.

A 16-year-old Ukrainian female took images of radars and air defense systems as she rode in taxis in the Chernihiv area. When she returned home she prepared reports for the GRU handler that recruited her through anonymous chat in a messenger app. She was arrested and faces life in prison.

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Diplomacy

After meeting with Trump and Macron in Paris, Zelensky said, "President Trump is, as always, resolute...we all want this war to end as soon as possible and in a just way. Peace through strength is possible.” Biden sent two aid packages worth $725 million and $988 million in a last minute bid to send as much aid as possible before Trump takes office.

Several Georgian ambassadors have resigned in protest over the decision to put EU accession on hold. Hundreds of civil servants and over 3000 teachers signed letters condemning the decision. The protests are still strong at 5 AM. Police have beaten journalists and protesters. A Georgian protester aims fireworks at police and protests have spread to other cities. The government then arrested opposition leaders and said it wasn’t repression, it’s prevention of a revolution.

In response to Russian sabotage, back in May the Russian diplomats in Poland were limited in where they were allowed to travel. The sabotage and espionage continued until Poland closed a consulate in Poznan. Russia closed a Polish consulate in St. Petersburg in response, and Poland is considering closing the other two Russian consulates in Krakow and Gdansk.

After intelligence showed that Russian influence altered the Romanian election, the constitutional court annulled the results and the election process will begin again.

A Russian cargo ship fired signal flares at a German helicopter in the Baltic Sea. Germany said that nothing was hit and no one was in danger. NATO nations respond to repeated incidents with “de-escalatory measures”.

Three months ago China stopped exporting drone components to Ukraine and said it was opposed to the use of its drone components for non-peaceful activities. At the same time, documentation was discovered indicating that a Chinese company was developing and producing a long-ranged drone and sending it to Russia. The EU is in the process of determining if the Chinese government knew about it and what sort of sanctions it might impose.

An Iranian official said Ukraine should stop supporting terrorist groups in Syria, and that Iran was always against the war in Ukraine and has never been involved in the conflict.

In October, 72% of South Koreans thought the North Korea-Russian alliance was threatening, but 66% said they should only provide non-lethal support to Ukraine and 16% said no aid at all should be provided. In 2022, 72% said they supported non-lethal aid and 6% said no aid at all should be provided. The government did send 600,000 155 mm shells to the US, allowing the US to send 600,000 shells of their own to Ukraine.

South Korea has only been a democracy for 34 years, less than half its existence, and has a history of dictatorship, coups and martial law. The deeply unpopular president declared martial law to thwart “anti-state forces” such as the media and political opposition. Martial law can be rescinded with a majority vote in parliament. Security forces were sent to the National Assembly building to prevent lawmakers from entering. Crowds quickly formed to prevent the forces from taking over the building and to help members of parliament to enter by climbing over fences. Enough members made it inside to hold a vote and they unanimously agreed to end martial law. This included members of his own party. They’ve now told him to resign or be impeached.

Despite the unanimous vote to overturn martial law, all but three members of the ruling party sat out the first impeachment vote. Support from eight members of the ruling party are needed to reach the two-thirds threshold needed to impeach the president. Tens of thousands of protesters stood outside the National Assembly in the freezing temperatures demanding his impeachment. When it failed, the crowd started to leave at 9 pm, and a smaller crowd of presidential supporters cheered at a different location in the city.

Given the recent events of martial law, impeachment and North Korean troops entering Ukraine, it is unknown if this will change the public stance on sending or selling weapons to Ukraine. Public opinion and a law would have to change first, so it is not likely to happen anytime soon.

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(…to be concluded in the Part 3…)