Don's Weekly, 8 July 2024: Part 2

by Donald Hill

(….continued from Part 2…)

***

Toretsk

Russia was able to make lateral advances but didn’t push any further west. Meanwhile, Ukraine brought in reinforcements to help stabilize the lines. But further south, at Yurivi, Russia was able to make a narrow push 3.5 km long and one kilometer wide. Those types of advances have a tendency to become wider. As, meanwhile, usual, this advance is characterized by heavy bombardments and infantry assaults. Russian vehicles, armored or otherwise, have been largely absent.

The Russian push in this sector can be characterized by heavy bombardment followed by advancing infantry. Artillery hits a Ukrainian tank and the crew evacuates on foot. Then a Ukrainian position is hit by artillery until they evacuate and Russian infantry moves in behind them…https://x.com/OmskRedArmy/status/1808314341847904693

The 95th Brigade was previously shown to be in the Terny area. It’s now in the Toretsk area and a tank and BTR from the brigade were aggressively hunting Russian infantry on the eastern edge of Druzhba…https://x.com/TOGAjano21/status/1809191200919851502

Ukrainian airstrikes on Pivnichne…https://x.com/CinC_AFU/status/1808526587429626363

Ukrainian infantry fighting in Pivnichne…https://t.me/donbass1422/20149

There are tall slag heaps that may have aided Russian observations in the area. In this view, Shumy is in Russian control, Zalizne is in Ukrainian control and both sides are fighting in Pivnichne.

***

Avdiivka

Centered on Sokil, Russia advanced on a six kilometer wide front anywhere from 500-3000 meters. Further south, Russian forces continue to slowly advance along both sides of the Karlivka reservoir. Yasnobrodivka has repulsed every Russian attack so far but the Russian advances at Karlivka and Umanske are threatening its supply routes. Since Ukrainian counter attacks are not a tactic of choice, Ukraine will need to withdraw from Yasnobrodivka soon, if it hasn’t already.

An attack out of Ocheretyne to the west was stopped

While both sides have dropped AT mines from drones (see Bakhmut section), Russians have started to throw AT mines, much like the satchel charges from WW2. While they are effective, a three-second time-delay adds an element of additional risk…https://x.com/EjShahid/status/1808200565253419158

***

Marinka

Russia managed to advance 1500 across a 3 km front in the far south but expended a lot of men and equipment without progressing anywhere else. They continue to make very slow progress in Krasnohorivka. The map indicates how much progress they made in that city in the last month.

11 km from the front, two civilians were killed and eight others were injured when a 220 mm rocket (thus probably a 9M27 from the BM-27 multiple rocket launcher) landed in their village. First responders provided aid and transported them to a safer location where they were transferred to ambulances that would take them to a hospital…https://x.com/AndrewPerpetua/status/1808488734347952549

The 79th Brigade continues to take a toll on Russian men and equipment…https://x.com/front_ukrainian/status/1809298312756912353

Once again, a ‘usual lesson’: when the Russian infantry walks towards an assault there is plenty of time for Ukraine to react with indirect fire and drones. The purpose of Russian armored vehicles is to move infantry into combat quickly. In the absence of armored vehicles, golf carts and motorcycles are used when available. They provide no protection other than speed. If a Ukrainian position is well defended then it usually results in heavy Russian losses. If it is not well defended, Russia may be able to take it. Despite the heavy casualties among the light vehicles, more Russian infantry make it to Ukrainian positions with the vehicles than without them.

***

Zaporizhzhia

There is still a moderate amount of shelling and drone warfare around Robotyne but the front lines there haven’t changed in a month.

75 km to the east, at Staromaiorske/Urozhaine, the front lines had also been static for a month, when the Russians conducted their last big push with armored vehicles. Since then, there have been periodic massive bombardments with airstrikes (a high of 40 on one day in Urozhaine), rockets from helicopters (a high of 55 on one day in Urozhaine), and artillery, isolated destruction of lone armored vehicles, and small scale infantry assaults, but the Ukrainians survived them all.

In between Robotyne and Urozhaine is Dorozhnianka. This week the Russians bombarded a treeline on the front line with incendiaries to burn away the cover and concealment…https://x.com/moklasen/status/1808980308639035876

Another Nebu-SVU radar is destroyed. The first one was destroyed in Crimea on May 29/30, 2024 by drones. The $100 million radar can track up to 100 aircraft (drones, cruise missiles, jets) up to 500 km away. It was designed to detect stealth aircraft with a smaller radar cross section, as well.

It is an acquisition radar, meaning it can detect aircraft in a very broad search pattern. To actually shoot down an aircraft or missile, the data has to be passed to a fire control radar, also known as a tracking radar. Tracking radars provide very precise data at a rapid rate that allows missiles to intercept the target, but they have a very narrow search pattern and must be told where to look.Kherson

Russians place one AT mine on top of an underground position and then throw another AT mine on that, this time with a longer fuse…https://x.com/EjShahid/status/1808222781798244861

Russian positions near Hola Prystan burn down…https://x.com/MrBijl/status/1808963047492300854

A Ukrainian drone spots a boat landing five Russians on an island 2.5 km north of Hola Prystan. FPV drones attack them in the homes they occupy with explosives and incendiaries.

***

Unknown Location

Ok, this is just funny…https://x.com/IAPonomarenko/status/1808532571543757134

An ammo dump is destroyed, but the bomber drone cannot escape the blast…https://x.com/AndrewPerpetua/status/1808231346000515110

(…to be continued…)