Don's Weekly, 8 July 2024: Part 1

Good morning everybody!

It’s Monday, but the action from yesterday is still going on. So, for example, while that Russian ammo dump in Voronezh is still burning (reportedly, it was full of air-to-air missiles, surface-to-surface missiles, SAMs, tank- and artillery ammo), the 110th Mech claimed another Russian Su-25 (sadly, though as so often, there’s no visual evidence…. at least not yet).

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Kharkiv

The battle lines in the east of Vovchansk didn’t change and the situation in the west remained fluid. The area of the high rise buildings has been named the “Citadel”. Ukraine still holds almost all of it but Russia was attacking from the north and west and were able to grab some buildings, at least temporarily.

In the “Corridor”, there is one position 180 meters west of the aggregate plant (indicated in yellow on the map) that has changed hands multiple times. Last week, Ukrainian drone attacks indicate that Russia held onto it for the entire week…https://x.com/EjShahid/status/1807354681133265224

Ukrainian forces are still in the northeast of Vovchansk, as shown by this video in which a Ukrainian soldier is being shelled by Russian artillery…https://x.com/giK1893/status/1808970180757700677

Ukrainian soldiers from the Lyut brigade fighting in Vovchansk…https://x.com/Maks_NAFO_FELLA/status/1809192789898351028

Around Hlyboke, Russia reports a build up of additional Ukrainian troops. Ukrainian drones interdict any Russian vehicles that approach the village, which is mostly trucks, but also a few armored vehicle now and then. Last week, Russia tried to send a couple groups of armored vehicles to the village. They were all eliminated before they came within 2500 meters of Hybloke.

Video was posted of accurate Ukrainian strikes on the center of Hybloke. That same day, video was posted of Russian artillery attacking Ukrainian positions in the northern and southern sections of Hybloke. It is very likely that Ukraine now has control of the village.

GRAPHIC: Bomb drops by drones wounds one Russian in Hlyboke and he is ignored by his teammates…https://x.com/Teoyaomiquu/status/1808899388653383729

While approaching Hlyboke, four Russian vehicles are destroyed 3 km away…https://x.com/giK1893/status/1808879534881575376

The 3rd Assault Brigade uses the Strela air defense system to shoot down a Zala drone. Each battalion in the brigade is about as strong as a traditional brigade so part of the 3rd is in the Kharkiv area and part of it is 16 km from Svatove, as well. They only used one battalion to cover the withdrawal from Avdiivka. Magyar’s Birds is a drone unit that has also grown in size so part of it is in the Kharkiv area and part of it remains in the Kherson region.

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Eastern Luhansk

There was a lot of combat in this sector but the only significant change in territory was at Makiivka, a little more than 10 km north of Terny.

The 3rd Assault Brigade has a battalion operating 15 km southwest of Svatove. Each battalion is almost the size of a regular brigade. This is where they said the Russians were preparing for an attack towards Borova. A 14 minute video shows them clearing a trench to spoil Russian offensive preparations.

At Kolomyichykha, Russia pushed hard but failed to gain any territory and lost men and equipment in the effort…https://t.me/osirskiy/747

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Bilohorivka

The Russian flag was flown in the ruins of Spirne…https://t.me/Ratnik2nd/5553

Rozdolivka is either contested and may be under Russian control. These are very small villages and represent a kilometer or less in Russian advances.

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Bakhmut

Here’s one answer to those asking how are UMPK glide bombs having effects upon developments on the frontline: after Ukrainians pushed the Russians out of the eastern half of the canal district, they’ve had to withdraw because the Russians started pounding the ruins of the Kanal District. As a result, the Russians re-gained control over the entire district this week. The value in holding onto the district was the defensive terrain itself and as the buildings deteriorated it became harder to move and exist in them. Staircases and hallways collapsed in some of them, forcing soldiers to run outside the building to move around in some cases.

And then there was the supply route: each vehicle that arrived with supplies and replacements and rotated casualties and other troops out had to run a gauntlet of accurate indirect fire. The vehicle could not remain in the district because the fire would not end. The vehicles would unload on the western side of buildings so that the buildings would provide some protection from the trajectories of shells being fired from the east, but the high trajectories of mortar shells could still land in close proximity. Once the drop off and pick ups were completed, the vehicle would have to run through the shell fire again and not every vehicle survived the round trip.

Always mind: while ‘losing terrain’ might not appear opportune for the ‘public’ (see: civilians, journos and especially politicians), in military sciences the cold fact is that the terrain is only useful if it provides you an advantage over the enemy. If the cost of holding it is higher than the advantages, then it’s time to withdraw.

On the southern outskirts of Klishchiivka, the 93rd brigade clears out isolated Russian positions.

17 km north of Bakhmut, the Russians clear a Ukrainian position a kilometer outside a village…https://x.com/EjShahid/status/1808238622057062773

20 km south of Bakhmut a Russian drone drops an AT mine near Maiorsk where they are pushing hard…https://x.com/EjShahid/status/1808434800694329640

Out of a pre-war population of 10,000 people, Toretsk still has 5,000 people even though they are now only 4 km from the front and undergoing heavy shelling. The police have evacuated 711 people in three days. Two medics are helping with the evacuation when their vehicle is hit by shrapnel from a nearby shell…https://x.com/AndrewPerpetua/status/1808485952945275078

A Russian drone rams a Ukrainian drone over Chasiv Yar, but the Ukrainian drone is the only one that survives.

We’ve talked about the OODA loop in the past: The side with the smaller loop can observe and react faster than the other side. It’s the reason why Russia wants to rush troops to the front line as fast as possible, preferably with an armored fighting vehicle. If that isn’t available then a golf cart or motorcycle is better than walking. This video is a good example why. At least 11 Russians walk towards the canal 2500 meters away after their AFV is immobilized. Because they’re walking, there is plenty of time to call in mortar fire or drone strikes. Indirect fire is good for large groups because there’s a greater chance you’ll hit someone, and if you do, there’s a greater chance you’ll kill or wound more people. The slower a target is moving, the easier it is to guess where they will be when firing the next shot. Drones are good for all occasions and it’s easier for them to adjust to the speed of a target. In the end, two Russians find a motorcycle and are wounded by a drone.

Looking back on the timeline provides context to the scope of the battle for the canal district of Chasiv Yar. By October, 2023, the Ukrainian summer offensive ground to a halt. The 3rd Assault Brigade reached the limit of their advance south of Bakhmut and was soon to be withdrawn. By October 23rd, Russia made its first small advances to the west of Bakhmut.

●     By February 13th, Russia had advanced 2700 meters and conducted its first airstrikes on the canal district, dropping eight bombs. There would be a total of 167 bombs dropped on just the canal district that were recorded on video and Andrew Perpetua’s map, all within 1500 square meters. Countless high explosive, incendiary and thermobaric artillery shells, plus ground- and helicopter-launched rockets also landed in the canal district before the Russians took complete control.

●     By March 23th, Russia controlled half of Ivanivske and reached the outskirts of the forest northeast of the canal district.

●     By April 14th, they were firmly lodged in the forest, Bohdanivka had fallen in the north, and the Russians controlled the high ground north of Ivanivske.

●     By May 26th, most of Ivanivske was under Russian control, they had a toe hold inside the canal district, and had entered the eastern edge of Kalynivka.

●     On June 9th, Russia had control over the eastern half of the canal district.

●     After briefly pushing Russia out of the eastern half of the district, Ukraine fell back to the western half before deciding to withdraw completely.

(…to be continued…)