Don's Weekly, 8 April 2024: Part 2

(….continued from Part 1…)

Russia

There were at least 23 Russian aircraft at Morozovsk air base, 290 km from from Ukrainian lines…

https://twitter.com/NOELreports/status/1776018707589796104

There were several explosions at the air base…

https://twitter.com/NOELreports/status/1776009937413345656

There were fires in Kursk after a drone attack…

https://twitter.com/NOELreports/status/1775975900833583571

The explosions…

https://twitter.com/NOELreports/status/1775956183955759379

Morozovsk, Yeysk, Kursk and Engels air bases were attacked. Media reported that unnamed Ukrainian officials said that six planes were destroyed and eight damaged…https://apnews.com/article/ukraine-russia-war-drone-attack-a8bafd70e1ea07cc53b1229790097a4f?utm_source=copy&utm_medium=share

Satellite images from Morozovsk, Yeysk and Engels do not show any definitive damage. It cannot indicate if there was any shrapnel damage or not…

https://twitter.com/kromark/status/1776613142757314743

The Son ar Chistr song was written in 1929 in the Breton language (lyrics here). The song became famous when Breton native Alan Stivell played it in other countries around 1970. It was covered by a Dutch group in 1976. German and Russian covers of the song were also made. Here are the lyrics of the cover song in English. Given that the lyrics mention a “struggle no one knows how long” “for a life without bondage”, and “We hold together, no one fights alone!”, it makes sense that one of the drones was playing that song as it was flying to attack the Morozovsk air base…

https://twitter.com/tendar/status/1776163715756220705

10-15% of Russian refinery capacity has been damaged for an unknown amount of time…

https://twitter.com/NOELreports/status/1775950536052789531

Jet-powered drones were used on targets in Belgorod oblast. A description of the drone is here…

https://twitter.com/Osinttechnical/status/1777011719354610110

An attack on Krasnodar…

https://twitter.com/PStyle0ne1/status/1777125600135680241

On the border with Kazakstan, the Russians built a dam for a billion rubles. It started with a leak that turned into a hole. When the undercut dam finally breaches, a Russian filming it cheers. At 11 meters, this is the largest flood in the history of the region and it was man-made…

https://twitter.com/Gerashchenko_en/status/1776899467595206660

Ukraine

Everyone’s experience in the war is different. This post is how one family in Odesa lives with the threat of missile and drone attacks.

It’s easier for Russia to attack Kharkiv because it’s so close to the front line, and the damage is growing…

https://twitter.com/3_bm15/status/1776988091649028164

The drivers of these fire trucks were killed in Kharkiv…

https://twitter.com/99Dominik_/status/1775789454961127457

This rescue worker found out his father was killed…

https://twitter.com/NOELreports/status/1775839208831172613

The State College of Physical Culture at Kharkiv is hit by two Russian bombs…

https://twitter.com/giK1893/status/1774947897131380933

Zaporizhzhia was hit. This is the second missile that was launched when rescuers and journalists were on the scene…

https://twitter.com/bayraktar_1love/status/1776279660285837732

A Ukrainian MLRS was destroyed in Kharkiv…

https://twitter.com/lost_warinua/status/1776587787447259298

A logistics center was hit by the Russians…

https://twitter.com/JulianRoepcke/status/1777068619576254626

Defensive positions near Belarus…

https://twitter.com/ZelenskyyUa/status/1776261378182955032

Ukraine formed a Ranger regiment that includes a UAV, artillery and sapper companies. They will be trained to NATO standards both in Ukraine and abroad…https://militaryland.net/news/special-forces-form-ranger-regiment/

US Aid Package

Jeff Jackson is a Democratic congressman from North Carolina. He writes on events in the US congress from an insider’s point of view. This is the link to the full post. Below is the section about the Ukraine aid bill:

Here’s what’s going on with congressional support for Ukraine.

For the last several weeks, the Speaker has privately told people that he wants to find a way to pass a bill to support Ukraine. He started saying this more publicly a few days ago.

His challenge isn’t policy - it’s politics. He’s trying to figure out a way to pass it without getting fired by his right-flank, virtually all of whom oppose Ukraine support.

He’s got two basic options:

First, he could take the Ukraine bill that already passed the Senate and try to pass that. But that doesn’t solve his political problem because that bill was passed by a Senate that is controlled by the other party, so it would lead to a perception that he was doing their bidding.

Second, he can create his own Ukraine bill and make it as right-flank-friendly as possible. This is where he’s at right now, and I think we could see his version within the next week or so.

BUT even that approach wouldn’t actually earn support from the right-flank. He’s just trying to minimize his odds of getting fired by basically saying, “You’re not going to like this, but I hope you’ll give me enough credit for at least trying to make it more acceptable to you that you won’t come after me.”

But Jeff, what if the minority party agrees to provide the votes to save the Speaker if he allows a vote on Ukraine?

The main issue there is whether the Speaker would be willing to strike that deal, given what a devastating political defeat it would mean for him personally.

Remember - the previous Speaker didn’t get fired because the other party refused to support him. He got fired, in part, because he knew that if he accepted support from the minority party, his goose was cooked. He might still hold the title of Speaker, but his life would become a living nightmare as the entire partisan media ecosystem went to work on him 24/7 for being in debt to the other side. He never asked for help because he couldn’t imagine paying the price for accepting it.

The new Speaker is in an identical situation. If he 1) holds a vote on Ukraine, and 2) faces a revolt within his party, and then 3) is saved solely by virtue of support from the minority party, he will never, ever return to the level of influence that he currently holds. He may survive as Speaker for some amount of time, but he’ll take an enormous hit that will define him politically going forward.

He’s trying to avoid that, with very little time left on the clock.///End

27 more signatures are needed to force Johnson to bring the aid bill up for a vote. MAGA is opposed to the bill. Many Democrats oppose it because it also includes aid to Israel…https://clerk.house.gov/DischargePetition/2024031209?CongressNum=118

***

Diplomacy

After the Czech initiative to find artillery ammo, Germany is taking the initiative to find air defense systems around the world that can be sent to Ukraine…

https://twitter.com/NOELreports/status/1775890466212593835

Estonia found about another million shells and rockets on the world market. The €2-3 billion cost still needs to be funded. The ammo includes 122 mm rockets, 122 mm shells, 152 mm shells and 155 mm shells. The countries selling the ammo do not want to be named. The Czech and Estonia ammo acquisition is beneficial in two ways: First, it acts as a bridge to providing Ukraine enough ammo until the western production ramps up. And second, any 122 mm and 152 mm ammo that is bought for Ukraine is ammo that won’t end up in Russia, which is also seeking to buy it…https://euromaidanpress.com/2024/04/02/estonia-found-e2-3-billion-in-shells-missiles-for-ukraine-needs-funding-from-allies/

Germany will provide Ukraine €7.6 billion in 2024…

https://twitter.com/NOELreports/status/1753407611402076582

The Swedish island of Gotland, in the middle of the Baltic Sea, was demilitarized in 2005 but re-militarized in 2016 following Russia’s first invasion of Ukraine. Russian fighters violated Swedish airspace at Gotland in March, 2022. They are now calling the build up on the island a provocation…https://www.atlanticcouncil.org/blogs/new-atlanticist/a-glimpse-of-sweden-in-nato-gotland-could-be-a-game-changer-for-baltic-defense/

Thousands in Hungary protested Orban in a rally led by Magyar, a former insider in Orban’s party. 15% of Hungarians polled said they would vote for Magyar. Opposition leaders are concerned he would split the oppostion vote…https://www.theguardian.com/world/2024/apr/06/protest-march-budapest-hungary-peter-magyar-viktor-orban-government

Macron said the EU shouldn’t be cowards. For all his talk, France still only produces 3,000 shells a month and while he says he supports the Czech initiative, France hasn’t contributed to it while Germany is paying for 40% of it. 18 other countries, some outside the EU, are contributing to the initiative…https://www.politico.eu/article/macron-urges-europe-not-to-be-cowards-on-ukraine/

***

Equipment

Russian infantry used thermal cloaks to reduce the signature that Ukrainian drones could observe at Avdiivka. RUSI said in May, 2023, that Russian vehicles started using thermal camouflage. I haven’t seen any reports to confirm that so maybe it’s working. Here’s a ten minute video on how thermal camouflage works.

Ukraine will soon receive drones with a range of 2000 km or more, made by ten different manufacturers. One drone will have a 3100 km, enabling it to reach the Murmansk air bases containing strategic bombers that launch missile attacks on Ukraine…

https://twitter.com/Gerashchenko_en/status/1776251029245300929

The coming E-300 drone will have a 3100 km range but that range is reduced if it carries a full payload of 300 kg. Most of Russia’s air bases, military factories and refineries are in this area...

https://twitter.com/ukraine_map/status/1776205766015299928

The D-80 UAV is the size of a hang glider and can carry 80 kg of cargo. The E-300 is almosts the size of a Cessna. It can carry up to 300 kg (for an unknown distance), or an unstated smaller payload if it flies 3100 km. The E-300 is stabile enough to us a 40x magnified lens and can fly for 23 hours. Both drones can land to deliver cargo and take off again. In an emergency, a parachute is deployed for an uncontrolled landing. It started production a year ago and, depending on the configuration, costs between $250-450,000…https://en.defence-ua.com/events/d_80_discovery_and_e_300_enterprise_uavs_platforms_for_carrying_equipment_weapons_and_defeating_enemies-9859.html

The EU delivered 500,000 shells by March when their goal was 1 million shells. Their target for all of 2024 is 1.4 million shells and another 2 million shells in 2025…

https://twitter.com/NOELreports/status/1753361393636516168

Spain is training Ukrainian personnel on the Patriot system…

https://twitter.com/NOELreports/status/1753545568826061109

Bulgaria started sending 100 BTR-60s a couple months ago…

https://twitter.com/NOELreports/status/1753545571434938416

Norway is increasing the size of its military and will double the number of NASAM air defense systems…

https://twitter.com/Osinttechnical/status/1776234340692701452

Russia produces 60-70 X101 cruise missiles a month. This chart tracks the estimated stockpile of the missiles…

https://twitter.com/ukraine_map/status/1776499890798858245

A Russian drone minelayer was destroyed by a Ukrainian flying drone…

https://twitter.com/bayraktar_1love/status/1776693337447161876

A 26 post thread that shows Russia’s depleted storage facilities for armored vehicles. These vehicles are refurbished and sent to Ukraine…

https://twitter.com/Jonpy99/status/1776883876687663277

One analysis estimates that Russia will run out of tanks in 18 months, Self-propelled Artillery in 24 months, and then APCs. As the levels of the stockpiles fall, the quality of the vehicles will be lower. Once the stockpiles are depleted, Russia will have to rely on new production only. More Russian vehicles are being destroyed now than and being refurbished from stockpiles or being newly produced. Once the stockpiles are depleted, the number of vehicles in the Russian army will decrease at a much faster rate …

https://twitter.com/PhilK186/status/1776962588871463135

Rheinmetall produced a containerized repair shop that can be used close to the front lines. Inside is a 3D printer, a metal 3D printer and a Computer Numerical Control unit that runs the machine…

https://twitter.com/chheinzel/status/1776453935156560020

Russian and Ukrainian artillery losses from March 8-April 7, as confirmed by Andrew Perpetua and his team…

https://twitter.com/partizan_oleg/status/1776881054718275876

Russia produces 400 new BMPs each year and refurbishes 600 BMPs from open air stockpiles…https://www.technology.org/2024/01/13/russia-is-losing-bmps-faster-than-it-can-make-them/

This chart shows the monthly losses by type of vehicle that Andrew Perpetua visually confirmed. There’s about a thousand IFVs (which include BMPs) lost in this 8 month time period. By the end of 2025, the stockpiles of IFVs that Russia uses to refurbish 600 a month will be gone. Also, Russian artillery losses are heavily influenced by the availability of Ukrainian artillery shells.

He also relayed a story that a Ukrainian battery commander told him: During the summer offensive, the battery commander was told by his battalion commander that he was authorized to fire on any target that he felt was worth the expenditure of ammo. After the offensive was over, he was moved to the east to support defensive operations. His new standing orders was that any target he found needed to be approved by not the battalion commander, but by the brigade commander. Right away he found Russian artillery that wasn’t located in defensive positions. They were just in the open, uncamouflaged and in range. He asked the brigade commander for permission to engage and was refused. They were so short on artillery shells that they had to save them for the larger Russian ground attacks. So the Russian artillery in that area largely got a free pass for over a month.

Perpetua goes on to say that artillery crews throughout Ukraine say they now have ten times more ammo than they used to have (which highlights how little they used to have more than how much they currently have) and it was implied that they once again have the authority to fire on any target that is viable. The commander that Perpetua talked to said he took out three Russian artillery pieces in one day.

Zelensky said that Ukraine needs the equivalent of 25 Patriot systems with 6-8 batteries each…https://kyivindependent.com/zelensky-ukraine-needs-25-patriot-air-defense-systems-to-be-completely-covered/#:~:text=I%20can%20say%20that%20to,where%20systems%20must%20be%20set.

***

Jamming Resistant Antenna

Operator-controlled drones need one frequency for its video feed and one frequency to send controller commands. If the enemy sends a radio signal powerful enough to overwhelm either of the drone signals then control over the drone is lost. Some drones have methods to resist jamming.

The radiation pattern of an antenna creates “nulls”, where radio waves in opposite phases cancel each other out, as they do in noise canceling headphones. They also create waves in identical phases that reinforce each other, creating a stronger signal, such as the main lobe and back lobe. The antenna can be steered, either mechanically or electronically (see phased array), towards the jamming source to create a null wave to cancel or reduce its power. Not all antennas can be steered.

Digital Signal Processing techniques can be used to estimate and cancel the jamming signal. If any jamming signals are close enough to the estimated signals they are ignored. The jammer can overcome this if he can mimic the desired signal close enough to confuse the algorithms.

A spread-spectrum technique uses a signal across a very large bandwidth, but very little power on each particular frequency. The larger the antenna, the larger the bandwidth can be and the more effective it is. A jammer then has to have enough power, (maybe 500 times more power), to jam enough frequencies on the bandwidth used to block enough of the signals being sent to cause loss of control.

A similar technique is frequency hopping, in which both the sender and receiver change frequency at the same time, many times a second. The more frequencies that are used, the harder it is to jam. Also, the longer the pattern used to hop frequencies, the harder it is to detect, similar to a weak and strong password. Without detecting and duplicating the pattern, the jammer would again have to have a lot more power to jam all the possible frequencies that are used.

Sometimes jamming only 10% of the signal is enough for the operator to lose control, but if the operator includes redundancy in each packet of signals, then there may be enough overlapping information to recreate the original signal.

A bigger antenna provides a bigger spectrum of frequencies that can be used, which gives the operator more choices in communicating and overcoming jamming. Physical size and the price of the components is why larger drones tend to be more EW resistant than smaller drones…https://electronics.stackexchange.com/q/83292