Don's Weekly, 7 July 2025: Part 3 (Ukraine & Equipment)

by Donald Hill

(…continued from Part 2…)

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Ukraine

Andrew Perpetua helps with fundraising and explains that some equipment is barely functioning, but, the brigades keep using it because the government won’t replace it. The government won’t supply some equipment and they won’t place it on a list for foreign allies to send it. For some brigades, 5% of their equipment comes from private donations that the government will not provide. Some brigades don’t have a private donation program and simply do without.

A fuel tank in a commercial facility was hit in Kyiv.

Shortly after a phone call with Trump, Putin launched the largest attack to date on Kyiv. About 550 drones and 11 missiles arrived over the capital in an eight hour period. One person was killed and more than 20 were wounded. Trump said he was very disappointed with his conversation but wasn’t disappointed enough to provide new aid to Ukraine, resume the flow of old aid, penalize the entities that are violating sanctions, or impose tariffs on Russia like he has on the rest of the world. His disappointment didn’t prevent him from diverting 20,000 rockets to the Middle East even though they were promised to Ukraine. Trump’s disappointment with Putin still isn’t deep enough to sell Patriot systems to Ukraine but Germany is trying to convince Trump to let them buy the systems on behalf of Ukraine as well as resume shipments of previously approved aid.

The III Corps ZSU is testing the Impulse digital system that will reduce the time needed to report, collect or analyze personnel data, allowing them more time to plan and conduct operations. The corps is also creating a drone regiment and will establish a professional non-commissioned officer corps, having trained over 500 of them in 2024. They’re also expanding the anti-aircraft unit from the 3rd Brigade to create a regiment for the corps.

The SBU arrested an officer of the PSU with the rank of major - for collecting coordinates of potential targets. They also arrested the leaders of a battalion in Odesa for taking money from locals, avoiding conscription and selling military fuel on the black market.

Eric Schmidt worked at Google for 19 years and was its CEO for ten years. He also headed the US Defense Innovation Advisory Board and was a member of the National Security Commission on Artificial Intelligence. He spent millions of dollars in Ukrainian startup programs for drones and in 2025 plans to deliver cheap, mass-produced drones with AI, with interceptor drones being the priority.

When Ukraine repairs the damage caused by missiles and drones, they often take the opportunity to improve on the Soviet-era construction. Instead of an old consolidated energy system they create multiple decentralized and smaller facilities. Buildings that are repaired or rebuilt have better insulation and multiple-glazed windows to reduce heating costs. The layout of streets are changed to create bike lanes, pedestrian amenities and more public transport to reduce the number of cars on the road. They are also increasing access for disabled people, especially with the rise of injuries from the war.

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Diplomacy

According to the Pentagon, the US has everything it needs to conduct any mission, anywhere, anytime, all around the world. Yet, the Pentagon policy chief, who is focused on the Chinese threat, partially halted aid allocated for Ukraine because he believes stockpiles of artillery shells, air defense missiles and precision munitions were too low. Senior military officials found the aid package would not jeopardize US ammo supplies. Both Democratic and Republicans that support Ukraine criticized the move and explanation. All the munitions sent came from US stockpiles with money allocated to replace them, or came directly from the factories paid for with money earmarked for Ukrainian support. This is the third time Hegseth stopped Ukrainian aid without coordinating with the White House, State Department or Congress. The other two times occurred in February and May and were reversed in days. The White House is now publicly defending the action.

On the other hand, US aid to Israel will only be threatened if Israel doesn’t halt Netanyahu’s trial.

Since the consolidation of the US military industrial base after the Cold War it has been unable to produce enough weapons to sustain a near-peer conflict, in this case, Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. The US has not taken any steps to significantly increase its production capabilities. 550 PAC-3 missiles were annually produced in 2024 and a new plant would increase it to 650 missiles by 2027. An alternative to increased US production is licensing production in other countries for profit. Japan and Germany are licensed to produce PAC-2 missiles but they are not as effective as PAC-3 missiles. Poland will build 48 Patriot launchers for themselves, but it takes 12 months to build a radar and 24 months to build the components for the radar.

Many Republicans are angry with Trump over his Ukraine policy but few are this bold unless they declare that they will not run for re-election, like this former Air Force general: “Mr President, your policy towards Russia is not working. While we negotiate, Putin bombs Ukrainian cities. Here is Kyiv today. It is time to change strategy. We and our allies must arm Ukraine to the teeth & we need the toughest sanctions. Putin is mocking you and America.”

The foreign minister of the People’s Republic of China frankly told the EU that they don’t want Russia to lose in Ukraine because the US would then focus on them. Putin is travelling to China in September.

The US will determine by the end of summer or early fall how many of their 80,000 troops in Europe they will withdraw.

Germany is considering spending $29 billion to buy 2500 GTK Boxer armored vehicles and 1000 Leopard 2 tanks that would equip the seven new brigades it promised to build in the next ten years.

A Czech company is accused of sending missile components to Russia. A Turkish company sends 99% of its deliveries to Russia. And a German steelmaker that said it exited the Russian market is still operating there.

In May 2024, Moldova and the EU signed a security agreement. Since Russian drones and missiles violated Moldovan airspace, the EU promised to send air defense equipment of some type at some point in 2025. Moldova will update a 2012 law with clear procedures for intercepting aircraft and drones.

Ukraine now has four minesweepers that the UK and Norway donated but Turkey won’t allow them to enter the Black Sea until the war is over citing the Montreux Convention. Turkey also said they won’t allow ships of nations not on the Black Sea to pass through the Turkish Straits, nor any warship they believe that can be pulled into the war. The minesweepers transferred to Romania have also been denied entry. While they are biding their time, the minesweepers are taking part in a NATO exercise.

The EU is providing €76 million to construct the Eurorail line between Lviv and the Polish border.

Trump lifted sanctions against building a Russian nuclear plant in Hungary.

35% of Poles support Ukraine’s entry into the EU and 42% oppose it. 37% supporting Ukraine joining NATO and 42% oppose it. Discuss in the comments.

The Trump administration extended the Biden-era sanctions against Russian banks and energy. Trump lifted sanctions against Syria which removed Russian banks, companies and individuals connected to those sanctions. Trump has not issued new Russian sanctions (he issued 280 against Iran), which are important to counter activities that avoided the older sanctions. That is especially important with the gaps created by lifting the Syrian sanctions. Biden issued an average of 170 new sanctions a month from 2022 to 2024. 130 companies in China/Hong Kong are advertising the sale of restricted chips to Russia. A chip from a Hong Kong company that was incorporated nine months ago was in a Kh-101 missile that killed ten civilians in Kyiv. That company is linked to four other companies that were established within the last three years. An economist said that with sanctions, you need to run just to stand still. Trump is not ‘running’ and the gaps created by lifting the Syrian sanctions have him walking backwards. Three Democrats are investigating the five-month pause on new sanctions.

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Equipment

‘The Drone Coalition’ seeks to aid Ukraine with increased production and technological advances of drones. Latvia and the UK head the coalition, and Belgium and Turkey just joined. The other nations in the coalition are Ukraine, Australia, Belgium, the Czech Republic, Denmark, France, Estonia, Italy, New Zealand, Canada, Lithuania, Luxembourg, the Netherlands, Norway, Poland, Türkiye, Germany, and Sweden. They committed to providing €2.75 billion for drone projects this year and have delivered €180 million so far.

UADamage built a drone that uses RGB and infrared cameras, a magnetometer and a ground penetrating radar to develop an integrated map showing the locations of mines. It can survey up to 10,000 square meters a day, and 3,000 square meters on a 30 minute charge.

Drones started off by dropping grenades. The munitions grew in size with the Vampire drone being reported to have a lift capability of 15 kg, the weight of a 120 mm mortar shell, and could carry 10 kg for 20 minutes at 40 kph. Ukraine says the Vampire drone can now carry 122 mm and 155 mm artillery shells. A 122 mm shell weighs 22 kg and a 155 mm shell weighs 45 kg. Ukraine modified drone-dropped RPG rounds to reduce weight. There were no details about Ukraine modifying the artillery rounds.

A German company working in Ukraine announced a platform into which drones and other sensors input data, which is consolidated and displayed at varying scales. It is designed to consolidate data and reduce data overload for mission planners. One of the objectives of the Drone Front initiative is to establish coordinated operations between all the drone units within a sector. An integrated platform will not only increase effectiveness in identifying and attacking targets, it will also allow senior leaders to observe how subordinate units conduct operations.

Ukraine approved a 5.56mm round that fragments without damaging the rifle barrel and provides a greater chance of hitting a drone with multiple fragments. At 100 meters, the fragments spread into a 25 cm diameter. Soldiers will be expected to carry a magazine of anti-drone rounds on them to use when threatened. Anti-drone rounds of other calibers are being developed.

The Raven air defense system from the UK has been operating in Ukraine for two years. 400 missiles have been launched and 70% hit their target.

This Raven team hit a lot of reconnaissance and Shahed/Geran drones and also one cruise missile.

The Wild Hornets are delivering interceptor drones and anti-aircraft FPV drones. A video in May showed an interceptor drone catch up to a Shahed drone at high altitude.

China detonated a hydrogen-based bomb that created a fireball of 1000 C for more than two seconds, which is 15 times longer than a TNT blast. When a silvery powder (magnesium hydride) is activated by conventional explosives it undergoes rapid thermal decomposition and releases hydrogen gas that is ignited. They created a plant that can produce 150 tons of magnesium hydride a year. Binding magnesium to hydrogen requires high temperatures and pressure. Exposure to air during the manufacturing process can lead to an explosion. The precision of the explosion makes it useful for directional weapons and could be used to power submarines. China is also developing electric-powered warships, hybrid-powered tanks and electromagnetic space launch systems.

In 2023, the US spent $784 billion and China spent $723 billion. The US just passed a bill that cut 56% of the $9 billion National Science Foundation funding and reduced staffing and fellowships by 73%, which will impact future generations of scientists. For every dollar the government spent on research over the last 75 years there’s been a 150-300% return on investment.

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(…to be concluded in the Part 3…)