Don's Weekly, 6 May 2024: Part 3

(….continued from Part 2…)

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Ukraine

Four people were killed and 29 were injured in a strike by an Iskander missile with cluster munitions on Odesa. Also, a dog was killed. A civilian in Odesa is comforted after being wounded…

https://twitter.com/sternenko/status/1784985346968560070

Russian attacks killed more than 50 children in Ukraine in March, double the number from the previous month. According to the UN, a total of 604 civilians were killed or injured in Ukraine in March. This figure is 20% higher than in February…

https://twitter.com/Gerashchenko_en/status/1784997803636228136

The cluster munition attack in Odesa, designed to kill people…

https://twitter.com/sternenko/status/1785237562426036323

A warehouse in Odesa was hit…

https://twitter.com/3_bm15/status/1785767780832219284

For the record, this facility in Berlin does not contribute to the war effort…

https://twitter.com/deaidua/status/1786385396294619366

About a week ago, an undated video surfaced in the social media, showing a Kh-101 cruise missile being pursued by an air-to-air missile with a sonic boom…

https://twitter.com/Tendar/status/1785042588522688646

There is one crossing point between Russia and Ukraine. It is a 2 km walk even if you are unable to walk. Ukrainians escaping from the occupied territories tell of their experience…

https://twitter.com/Gerashchenko_en/status/1785989843660537996

A funeral procession in Kyiv…

https://twitter.com/saintjavelin/status/1786454638645948478

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Diplomacy

Israel’s Patriot systems will be retired in favor of domestic air defense systems. Although multiple Israeli intelligence services (see AMAN, Shin Bet etc.) can’t stop repeating that there is no trace of evidence for all the claims about ‘Hamas attack ordered by Tehran, Moscow….(or the Mars People)’….while Netanyahu remains one of Pudding’s closest buddies, official Israel is ‘concerned about Russian actions in Syria and their alliance with Iran’.

This is why, dear readers, it’s extremely unlikely Israel is going to permit the USA to ship these systems to Ukraine…https://breakingdefense.com/2024/05/israel-retires-patriot-air-defenses-as-native-air-defense-systems-step-up/#:~:text=The%20Israel%20Air%20Force%20had,use%20and%20its%20personnel%20will

Italy is sending more aid, including a SAMP-T air defense system, which probably was pulled from Slovakia after the nation elected a pro-Putin government…

https://twitter.com/front_ukrainian/status/1786313672228274438

500 Ukrainian soldiers have been hospitalized after exposure to toxic gasses. One has died after suffocating on tear gas. Besides tear gas, Russia is accused of using chloropicrin, used as a poison gas in WW1. It causes irritation of the lungs, eyes and skin and can cause vomiting, nausea and diarrhea. In 2017, the Organisation for the Prohibition of Chemical Weapons said Russia destroyed the last of their Cold War stockpiles but Russia is accused of making an incomplete declaration…https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-68941220

As of February, 2024, Ukraine says Russia conducted 815 chemical attacks, 229 in January, 2024 alone. Russia said that Ukraine used chemical weapons in February, 2023…https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/ukraine-accuses-russia-intensifying-chemical-attacks-battlefield-2024-02-09/

Chinese companies are being sanctioned for sending drone propellers, signal jammers, sensors, engines, cellulose and nitrocellulose. A UAE company was sanctioned for making 6,800 transshipments of parts from other countries. Almost 300 companies were sanctioned…https://www.ajot.com/news/us-sanctions-firms-in-china-uae-for-support-of-russiaas-war

At least 2% of Estonia’s population donates to Ukraine…

https://twitter.com/MoD_Estonia/status/1785195093160304762

Latvia is spending €300 million over five years to strengthen their border with Russia…

https://twitter.com/nexta_tv/status/1786349452225130859

Finland proposes limiting access to Kaliningrad in retaliation to GPS jamming from that location that interferes with air traffic…

https://twitter.com/lassaperd/status/1786491251463790712

On the 20th anniversary of Hungary joining the EU, Orban says that “this is not the EU we joined.” It’s certainly not the Hungary that joined…

https://twitter.com/Maks_NAFO_FELLA/status/1786468797395693955

Georgia is about to pass their version of the “foreign agent” bill. Called the “Russian bill” by some, it will stifle dissent against the government. The president said she would veto the bill but the parliament says they have enough votes to override it. There were clashes between the police and demonstraters protesting the bill…https://www.rferl.org/a/georgia-protests-foreignagent-law-russia/32928795.html

The leader of the Georgian pro-Russian party has his own views…

https://twitter.com/shpapuashvili/status/1786456262651068432

For three weeks, Georgians gather to protest in front of parliament. Medical teams tends to the protesters. Tear gas was used by the police. Respirators and protection masks are being sold in Tblisi. A scrum against the water cannon. Also, in the opera house. “Glory to Georgia! Glory to Ukraine!”

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Equipment

The GPS-guided Excalibur 155 mm shell had an efficiency rating of 70% that dropped to 6% in six weeks because of jamming. The shell has been withdrawn and the manufacturer is implementing a known solution. GMLRS was also impacted by GPS jamming until a solution was implemented. GLSDB has issues with the rocket booster separating from the glide bomb and they are working on that fix…

https://twitter.com/PStyle0ne1/status/1785899086178066721

JDAM bombs have been impacted by GPS jamming. They’ve been altered so that they will now target jammers that were targeting them…https://www.twz.com/air/jdam-er-winged-bombs-with-seekers-that-home-in-on-gps-jammers-headed-to-ukraine

There is yet another report that Russia is using Su-57's to launch Kh-59/69 missiles…

https://twitter.com/UKikaski/status/1785654907518763224

(Actually, considering the state of ‘development’ of the Su-57, this is extremely unlikely. It’s approximately the same like with the ‘deployment of T-14 Armata in Ukraine’. But, well, one can never know, and thus here you are: we’re posting this ‘for the records’.)

It looks like 480 BTR-82’s and some portion of 360 BMP-2/BMP-3’s are being produced in Russia each year. If you count the repaired and restored vehicles, there are about 1670 infantry carriers being created or returned to the field each year…

https://twitter.com/Jonpy99/status/1785973924716589275

Germany will deliver sensors that detect radar, incoming heat signatures and lasers. These sensors will be used on attack helicopters…

https://twitter.com/Osinttechnical/status/1786102457665282502

The US produced 14,000 155 mm rounds per month in February, 2022. By October, 2023, the US was producing 28,000 rounds per month and the goal was to produce 60k/month in 2024, 80k/month in 2025 and 100k/month in 2026. By March, 2024, they were still producing 28k/month because additional funding was needed but the plan was advanced to producing 70-80k/month in 2024 and 100k/month by the summer of 2025. Now, in May, the Scranton facility is producing 36k/month. (The original goal was 37k/month in 2027). The reason for the faster timeline is because the US asked for $3.1 billion for producing 155 mm shells and received $5.3 billion. (Logistical and transportation costs increase that figure to $6 billion.)

By the end of 2024, Rheinmetall is expected to produce 60k/month and Finnish, Czech, Canadian and British manufacturers hope to produce 20k/month by then. Rheinmetall hopes to produce over 91k/month by 2027.

The US defense industry had 3.4 million workers in 1992 and that was reduced to 1.1 million now. If the political decision was made, it would take 5-10 years to reestablish an industrial base of that size. Having experienced boom and bust cycles, US defense industries are conservative in their investments, especially in legacy systems. Because of this, companies charge less for multi-year contracts. Given the time needed to ramp up production, the US signed contracts with companies in Canada, Poland and India to increase shell production.

This production increase is pretty fast, but context is needed to highlight Ukraine’s needs: If Ukraine’s allies stopped sending ammo, it would take them 3-5 years to restock the amount they already sent.

NATO didn’t have enough ammo for themselves, let alone Ukraine.

Lockheed produces 550 PAC-3 missiles a year and that will increase to 650 a year in 2024. Ukraine uses over 1900 per year. Between 2017 and 2022, 2,000 PAC-3 missiles were produced. Many of them have been sent to Ukraine along with some missiles from Japanese stockpiles…https://www.politico.com/f/?id=0000018e-e7dd-d182-abcf-e7ff68100000

Cotton linter is used to create nitrocellulose, or smokeless powder. China produced half the cotton linters for the world and 70% for Europe. Russia produces very little and imports most of what it uses for gunpowder. Rheinmetall said it stockpiled a large source soon after Russia’s 2022 full-scale invasion and is creating a factory to produce more in Germany. A French/Belgium/Swedish company will start delivering propellant charges to Ukraine in 2025 at a rate of 500,000 per year…https://mil.in.ua/en/news/eurenco-to-start-mass-production-of-gunpowder-in-europe/

$20 billion will address the US production bottlenecks of solid rocket motors, cruise missile motors, counter-drone technologies and also issues such as ball bearings, printed circuit boards, processor assemblies, castings, forgings, microelectronics, and seekers for munitions. There have also been recruitment and retention issues for skilled labor, such as welders and engineers…

https://twitter.com/JackDetsch/status/1786387601890427243