Don's Weekly, 6 May 2024: Part 1
Hello everybody!
1 May has passed, and now the anniversary of the Allied victory in the Second World War - 8-9 May - is approaching. Indeed, the Little Green Men are already diligently exercising for the parade on the Red Square.
Seemingly, it’s because of this that the top Ukrainian political- and military leadership is expecting Pudding and the Keystone Cops in Moscow to ‘try extracting some kind of significant victory’. Of course, intensified combat air patrols of VKS’ Su-35s over the Belgorod area, together with the arrival of the XXXXIV Army Corps and several Spetsnaz units, plus intensified attacks by artillery rockets and glide bombs on Kharkiv Oblast in Ukraine are adding their sort of ‘argumentation’, too.
But then, that’s one of crucial problems with populist dictatorships of Pudding’s kind: they’re babbling nonsense all the time, that’s sure. Lots of people love getting deluded by this: those of us serious and sane enough to retain our ability to think and analyse logically must take this nonsense seriously, otherwise… well, it is so: we could be taken by surprise, too.
And if the Keystone Cops are doing all of this as a sort of maskirovka (don’t tell me you don’t know what ‘maskirovka’ means?): well, since when does it matter what has some character like Pudding, Trump, Le Pen, Macron, Johnson/Sunak, Orban, Fico or Kickl said two days ago….?
They’re the first unable to recall their own statements.
***
Ah yes, and: before anybody asks….
1.) no, I do not know about any kind of ‘NATO troops’ (in sense of ‘complete combat units’) being deployed in Ukraine. Even less so ‘1,500 from the (French) Foreign Legion’. If characters like Macron can be depended for anything at all, then to make lots of unsubstantiated statements - always in order to improve their public standing by 1-2% through ‘public presence’ (in the media). Because our media is simply unable to analyse and always horny about bombastic sensations.
This is also extremely unlikely to ever change (except, of course, the war is over and Ukraine officially joins NATO). Indeed, i would characterise such rumours as, ‘typical wishful thinking when times are hard’.
Right now, all the possible NATO generals are busy war-gaming ‘Russian attack on NATO in 2029’ - because, and just like their political masters, they can’t see forest of the trees.
Of course, there are dozens of US, British, Polish etc. advisors in Ukraine, all present in different advisory functions. And there are members of the Ukrainian Foreign Legion, plus foreigners with dual citizenship serving in different other of ZSU's units. But, no NATO troops in form of coherent combat units.
2.) And no, no ‘NATO troops’ are deployed to ‘hunt down Ukrainian men in Poland and elsewhere, so to return them to Ukraine for their military service’. Even if, that would be the job of the local police, not that of ‘NATO’.
With this, I’m handing over to Don:
***
Luhansk
Russia swarmed Kyslivka and pushed into the adjacent village of Kotliarivka, and advanced about one kilometer. 1500 meters to the north, Ukraine lost 2 BMPs and 2 M113s.
South of Terny and Yampolivka, Ukraine cleared out a treeline for about a kilometer in length. I have not seen any reports about Russian assaults this week.
In northern Luhansk, ATACMS missiles with cluster munitions hit a Russian training site…
https://twitter.com/auto_glam/status/1785618763796070481
The casualties at one site were heavy…
https://twitter.com/EcoTerrorist101/status/1785738085059178501
Russian positions are cleared out 2.5 km southeast of Yampolivka (see inset map). The trash and camo net indicates the position has been occupied a while, in this case, since the end of February. Trash is an indicator of poor unit discipline…
https://twitter.com/Jamie04381095/status/1786363834548015405
***
Bilohorivka
Russian bombardments were heavy and they lost nine vehicles and infantry without making any progress.
Ukrainian drones stop a Russian assault. The locations of this video is indicated by the four yellow triangles on the map…
https://twitter.com/Teoyaomiquu/status/1786561419598532978
***
Bakhmut
At the beginning of the week, Russia hit the southern part of the forest just east of the canal district with heavy airstrikes. They never bombarded the northern part and Ukraine did. Later Russian bombardments were focused on the eastern edge of the canal district and not the forest, so the Russians are very likely in control of the forest and are fighting to enter the town.
Just north of Chasiv Yar, Russian shelling destroyed a dump truck and a small bridge crossing the canal…https://t.me/warhistoryalconafter/161737
In between Chasiv Yar and Ivanivske, small Russian teams reached the canal. Ukraine said they eliminated them but there is a report that Russia still has a presence there. Crossing the canal here doesn’t mean crossing the narrow open waterway. It is solid ground and the canal water is carried in pipes, like the one see at the 0:18 mark in the video…
https://twitter.com/giK1893/status/1785282955142660491
In between Klishchiivka and Ivanivske the Russians attack with tanks…
https://twitter.com/EjShahid/status/1784955707046973618
The “turtle” or “barn” tanks of Krasnohorivka were effective enough to be used in Ivanivske. Some drones now try to hit the treads and there is a report that bomber drones are dropping anti-tank mines in front of the tank while it is driving. …
https://twitter.com/Teoyaomiquu/status/1786068113043214390
***
Avdiivka
The 3rd Assault Brigade has been withdrawn from the front line. Two battalions of the 47th Brigade are already resting and reorganizing in the rear (don’t worry: it’s safe to say this in the public; meanwhile, even the Russians have figured this out). The other is providing support with its Bradleys and M1 Abrams. While this does not mean Russia will not continue to make gains in this sector, it does indicate that Ukraine does not consider the present situation to be the highest level of crisis.
Russia continued to attack east and south of Ocheretyne to reduce the logistical threat to their advance here. West of Ocheretyne, they were able to advance one kilometer north. Because of the instability of the lines and a continuing shortage of artillery ammo and ATGMs, Ukraine had to commit its armored vehicles to engage advancing Russian forces. Because of that, four Bradleys, an M1 tank and two BMPs were damaged or destroyed.
Ukrainian forces withdrew from between Ocheretyne and Keramik. They also withdrew from Arkhanhelske since the terrain made it very difficult for Ukraine to supply the isolated position.
You can see on the elevation map that the open fields, small river and ponds would make it very difficult to supply Arkhanhelske from across the river. It is not uncommon to wait too long before withdrawing but in this case the Ukrainians withdrew before the Russian pressure was too heavy. The method of their withdrawal still made them vulnerable to indirect fire, though.
The area north of Arkhanhelske is also a tenuous defensive ground for Ukraine. Open fields in a valley, with the only cover being two thin treelines. Ukraine may put a small skirmish force in this location but if Russia makes a push, Ukraine will likely fall back. Even if Russia takes this area, it will have to contend with the same issues Ukraine did: In a valley, open fields and only two treelines for cover. In the age of artillery, the treelines would soon be reduced to a few upright poles.
Novooleksandrivka and Sokil and the territory in between is important. I know there were defensive positions at Sokil but I don’t know about the rest of the area. All the money and resources spent building concrete positions at Odesa and Kherson sure would be handy here.
Russia advanced 1500 meters south of Pervomaiske so that will likely lead to a withdrawal of the territory northeast of Nevelske, which would increase the pressure on Nevelske itself.
About 25 Ukrainian soldiers withdrew from Arkhanhelske, probably because it is difficult to supply it across the small river and open fields. They move in a single column, all at once, and are too close together. It is not surprising they are targeted with indirect fire…
https://twitter.com/GirkinGirkin/status/1786570838172467566
In between Sokil and Soloviove, Russian infantry are harrassed by artillery…
https://twitter.com/EjShahid/status/1785567180748120248
A Russian MT-LB with infantry is engaged by Bradley and artillery fire…https://t.me/brygada47/667
The 3rd Brigade hunts Russia’s supply network at night…
https://twitter.com/BBS3AB/status/1785676222451552339
Two months after withdrawing from Avdiivka, the 110th brigade claims they shot down an Su-25…https://t.me/Tsaplienko/53123
A Bradley puts 25 mm holes in an MT-LB after it drops off infantry…
https://twitter.com/AndrewPerpetua/status/1785979782405964016
A Russian 152 mm SP gun is destroyed…
https://twitter.com/NOELreports/status/1785753164492280249
A BMP meets a Ukrainian drone…
https://twitter.com/wartranslated/status/1785948417648214063
Artillery immobilized the Russian tank. A drone destroyed it…
https://twitter.com/bayraktar_1love/status/1785648199736205329
The 47th Brigade spearheaded the offensive and was then moved to the heavy fighting at Avdiivka. They’ve lost 40 of their 200 Bradleys and 5 of their 31 M-1’s…
https://twitter.com/UKikaski/status/1785995725995753502
GRAPHIC: This YouTube video is 7 minutes of a Russian soldier walking in what used to be a a treeline. The ground is littered with Russian corpses throughout the video. This is a 500 meter walk by Stepove. The dead are likely a result of drone and artillery fire targeting troops walking towards an assault on Berdychi. Even though the fight is beyond Berdychi, Russian troops are still using the route to make their way to the front 6 km from this location…
https://twitter.com/moklasen/status/1785367674555384303
The 115th Mechanized Brigade was recently accused of running away as Russia pushed into Ocheretyne. Their public response is that they endured 20-30 anti-aircraft missile strikes, 60-90 artillery strikes, hit the brigade's positions with Grads, mortars, and a large number of FPV drones, dropping drones, including chemical substances, and that several of their positions were destroyed. They say they were outnumbered 10 or 15:1, that assault groups that were normally five people attacking one at a time became up to 15 people attacking two or three places at once. They said they transferred control of Ocheretyne (on its right flank) and Keramik (on its left flank) to other brigades. An investigation is being conducted and the results will be made public…https://suspilne.media/donbas/737553-u-115-j-brigadi-vidreaguvali-na-zvinuvacenna-pro-krah-oboroni-oceretinogo-na-doneccini/
(…to be continued…)
Don & Tom: a few questions.
1) TURTLE TANKS: any information or intelligence that the RuSSians might start prefabricated TURTLE KITS for specific tank models to the front instead of the troops at the front "Jerry-Rigging" everything?
2) 12 GAUGE FLECHETTE SHELLS: any information or intelligence that Ukrainians or RuSSians are using this type of ammunition, like the Reaper Defense 2.75" 12 gauge shells?
3) TANK CANNON CANISTER ROUNDS: any information or intelligence that Ukrainians or RuSSians are using this type of ammunition, like the M1 Abrams 120mm M1028 Canister Cartridge was developed for close-in defense of tanks against massed assaulting infantry attack and infantry concentrations?
Oh, Don: Thank you. Last week you posted s few pics of a RuSSian ASSault that involved the heavy use of VEHICLE SMOKE SCREENS, i.e. dumping fuel into the vehicle exhaust. I had asked if the RuSSians were using that tactic as I had not seen or heard about them using it. So, again, THANKS. :o)
Interesting about the shooting down of the SU-25. I was seeing the videos of them flying low in Bakhmut, reading Tom’s reports about their increased use but was somewhat skeptical.
Does it mean that ZSU has even run out of Soviet manpads and was waiting for Stingers? I thought they have thousands of Igla (which should be also produced by other countries in the former Eastern block) or whatever the Soviet system was named.