Don's Weekly, 6 January 2025: Part 3

by Donald Hill

(…continued from Part 2…)

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Unknown Location

A report that the Russians shot down their own Mi-28, possibly in the Rostov area during a drone attack.

I don’t know when or where this happened, but it doesn’t seem like there was an explosive payload. At the end you see a fiber optic cable and the figure of a human arrives fairly quickly.

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Russia

Now that Russian gas is no longer flowing through Ukrainian pipelines, Ukraine will give up €800 million a year in transit fees and Russia will lose €5 billion a year in sales. The gas represented 5% of the gas Europe used. Fico of Slovakia questioned whether Ukraine had the right to damage the national interests of an EU member state. Hungary is still receiving Russian gas through a Turkish pipeline. Austria and the Czech Republic switched to alternate supply sources.

A Russian talks about how fast the price of butter is rising. A woman talks about high prices, the impact on pensioners, how maybe 90% of the people are below the poverty line and how things have been getting worse over the years.

A port near St. Petersburg was attacked by a drone.

Ukraine conducted cyberattacks on Lukoil, preventing consumers from paying.

Here is a thread of recent scams in Russia involving arson. At the end of the threat is a bonus story about old blankets, complete with a graph.

Because it’s Russia, Old Man Frost shoots down Santa Claus.

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Ukraine

Tartarigami wrote an article about fundamental issues with Ukraine’s military and solutions for these problems. All of these issues have been discussed in many publications. Many of the issues are discussed on this blog - for nearly a year now. The momentum for these conversations has increased as the months go by. It is good that the public pressure for military reform increases: without it, without massive external pressure, it is certain that nothing in the ZSU might ever change.

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Snapshots

The number of Russian assaults has continued to increase throughout the year. After relatively large Russian advances in November, they have slowed to moderate October levels

This is the same chart for territory gained by Russia from September to December 2024 - but: is compared to Russian casualties. During the partial collapse of the Vuhledar front in October and November Russia gained a lot of territory for fewer casualties. Now they are once again paying a heavy price for each square kilometer of territory they occupy

Russian artillery and MLRS attacks have been fairly steady since July but have seen a sharp increase in the last two weeks. It remains to be seen where they will level out.

The number of airstrikes continued to decline from an average of around 75 a day. But while there were only 12 airstrikes in the last week of 2024, there were 16 and 23 airstrikes on January 2nd and 3rd.

The number of Russian FPV attacks has increased with the number of Russian ground attacks.

In 2022, gas accounted for 22% of Russia’s income. It now accounts for 16%. 40% of the EU’s gas used to come from Russia. Now only 8% comes from Russia. There are a lot of US, Canadian and Mexican projects that are finally being completed and their gas production will double in the next two years.

EU imports of Russian crude oil and petroleum products were reduced from a high of 11.44 million metric tons in January 2022 to 0.71 million metric tons in August 2024.

Over the last five years, the ruble lost 44% in value. One US cent is worth more than one ruble. Despite the efforts of Russia to prop it up, it will continue to drop as the rate of inflation climbs.

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Diplomacy

The US will send to Ukraine $1.25 billion worth of equipment from its stockpiles and $1.22 billion in cash that can be used to buy military equipment. It sent another $3.4 billion to aid Ukraine’s budget. It is the last of the money approved by the Congress. It is possible that not all of the equipment will be sent before Trump takes office. He could then choose to stop the shipment but there is no indication whether he will or not. In total, the US spent $21 billion on Ukraine in 2024. Here is a partial list of equipment.

Trump used sanctions against Iran in his first term but said he will use them sparingly against Russia. While campaigning, he talked about using sanctions and then lifting them quickly so nations wouldn’t seek to replace the dollar as primary world trading currency.

One observer notices that Russia continues its series of attacks in the Baltic Sea because it hasn’t been met with any consequences it values. Denmark, Sweden, Estonia, Finland and Germany have debated international maritime law as the Russian and Chinese ships continue on their way, with or without a delay. Finally, Finland seized a ship that not only conducted the attacks but carried sanctioned oil and collected intelligence. “Metaphorically, Russia stabs soft societies with a bayonet until it meets steel. Russia will not stop until it is stopped.” If offending ships are impounded it is possible the attacks will be too expensive for Russia. If the offending crew are held legally responsible it is possible they will consider the attacks too expensive for themselves.

The Greek-owned and -flagged tanker “Happy Lady” made several trips to St. Petersburg.

19 billion euros of EU funding for Hungary was frozen in 2022 because Hungary violated rules on public procurement, control and transparency. 1 billion of that funding is now lost to Hungary after a December 31st deadline passed. Orban constantly undermined EU values and supported the Russian invasion of Ukraine. He said, “They constantly try to take the money of Hungarians by a variety of means and a variety of methods.” Autocrats portray themselves as victims to invoke rage and to justify their actions. An opposition demand for early elections was viewed by nearly 2 million people out of a total population of 9.6 million.

Russia and Ukraine exchanged 150 prisoners of war. Some of the 150 soldiers Ukraine received were captured around the Chernobyl nuclear power plant and in Mariupol in the first months of the war. Ukraine also received 37 border guards and two civilians. The United Arab Emirates brokered the exchange and said that so far they’ve facilitated the exchange of 2,184 people from both sides. The country influences the war in other ways, as well. The Eagle S is a shadow fleet ship that carries sanctioned Russian oil and cut two power cables and four internet cables in the Baltic Sea. There was also surveillance equipment on the ship operated by an intelligence officer and a report that the same equipment is on another ship, the Swiftsea Rider. Both of those ships are owned by a UAE company.

The gas from Russia was turned off and Transnistria relies on it for central heating and industry. People are advised to dress warmly and the streets were deserted on the first day. The largest power plant switched to coal but only has enough fuel for 50 days. Heating points are being set up and there are hotlines to help find firewood. All industries other than food production have been shut down. Moldova believes that Russia wants to destabilize the country so that anti-EU parties can win the next election. For their part, Transnistria refuses help from Moldova and prefers to wait on Gazprom resuming supplies.

Gazprom shipped gas to Moldovagaz, which then shipped it to Transnistria. Gazprom said it stopped shipping gas because it said Moldovagaz didn’t pay for it. Gazprom owns 50% of Moldovagaz. Transniestria owns 13% of Moldovagaz and the Moldovan government owns 35.6% of the company. This ownership structure was set up in 2013, and Moldova is preparing to nationalize the company, saying, “These facilities were also taken away from us once ... And we should return them to state ownership.”

Poland is taking over the rotating EU presidency from Hungary. Poland did not invite Orban or the Hungarian ambassador to the ceremony. Hungary granted asylum to a former Polish government official accused of misappropriating public funds.

There are growing protests in Serbia against the corruption of the government. At one point the regime cancelled train and bus lines to Belgrade. “Bella Ciao” has been invoked. The Belgrade Philharmonic Orchestra lent their support. There were protests a year ago, as well.

Attempts to stop people travelling to the capitol did not prevent large crowds from forming in Serbia.

China has pretty strict control over domestic social media. This is a Chinese viral video that calls for taking advantage of Russia’s weakened state and seize a lot of territory. China still remembers the Treaty of Aigun and the “Century of Humiliation”. Recent Chinese maps label Vladivostok and Khabarovsk by their Chinese names of Haishenwai and Boli. Taiwanese politicians have asked that if a threat to Taiwan is about territorial integrity, why aren’t they working on regaining the Far East territories? For decades, Chinese politicians have insisted that the past, however unfair, is a settled matter. There was an eight month Sino-Soviet border conflict in 1969, even as Soviet aid to North Vietnam used China’s rail system. The conflict was the only time China placed its nuclear forces on full alert status - and is covered in full detail in three books published in Helion’s Asia@War series:

• The Sino-Soviet Border War of 1969, Volume 1 (a book co-authored by an officer of the Russian General Staff),

• The Sino-Soviet Border War of 1969, Volume 2, and

• When Brothers Fight (recollections of veterans of the People’s Liberation Army).

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(…to be continued…)