Don's Weekly, 5 November 2023: Part 1
Good morning everybody!
Once again, starting this week with a summary of the last one, prepared by Don Hill.
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Ukraine is holding the line in the bitter battle at Avdiivka, Ukrainian keeps the pressure on Russians on the Dnieper, and another missile-launching Russian naval vessel is damaged in Crimea.
Western Luhansk
Russia destroys a Ukrainian tank 17 km east of Kupiansk. 49.701576, 37.866492…
https://twitter.com/EjShahid/status/1719011612152025088
Ukrainian losses are greater than I’ve been able to show due to the lack of posts from trustworthy sites, but they remain much smaller than ongoing Russian losses. Some images of the same near Kupiansk…
https://twitter.com/666_mancer/status/1719811393245864296
The "Sharp Kartuza" unit destroys the "LEER-3" radio-electronic warfare complex and the "R-419L1" radio relay station in Dachny, Luhansk region. Location: Dachne, Luhansk Oblast, Ukraine 49.398226, 38.088006...
https://twitter.com/EjShahid/status/1720477129257746796
In the fall of 2022, the Russian artillery outnumbered Ukrainian artillery 8:1 near Kupiansk. A high quality Ukrainian artillery brigade with average weapons used drones to spot and destroy Russian artillery repeatedly. After months of being dominated, Russia filled this sector with EW equipment, jamming the Ukrainian drones. It still didn’t give Russia an artillery advantage but it took away Ukraine’s advantage. Ukrainian drones were a force multiplier in that sector until they were largely nullified. Ukraine now hunts Russian EW assets (see above)…
https://twitter.com/jabuttee/status/1719801738432070046
Bakhmut
Russia periodically attacks Klishchiivka from Bakhmut and it always fails. I read that Russian forces digging in along the Opytne-Odradivka road were being targeted by artillery but heard nothing to indicate where Ukrainian forces were, or if they had advanced around Kurdiumivka.
A 3rd Brigade soldier east of Andriivka enjoys the view before being rotated to the rear. When the taxi arrives, no one wants to stick around…
https://twitter.com/666_mancer/status/1719053146004103513
Fighting along what used to be a treeline…
https://twitter.com/NOELreports/status/1720871467464724516
I posted the original video of this firefight about six months ago. This same video now has added context from one of the Ukrainian combatants. Russian indirect fire drove the Ukrainians into a bunker for better protection. Because of that, the Russian infantry were able to move to close range before they were detected. The rest is explained in the video…
Avdiivka
Russia was able to cross the railroad and was preparing to attack the village of Stepove when a Ukrainian counter-attack pushed their forces back across the railroad. Ukraine also attacked in the northern flank, penetrating at least one kilometer at one point, but I haven’t seen any evidence if they’ve sustained that position or moved forward or backwards from it. Russia has retained the Slagheap and is trying to attack into the steel works held by the recently arrived 47th brigade. In the south, the Russians gained 500 meters on a small front. Russian airstrikes and artillery bombardments were heavier this week.
Some isolated Ukrainian statements say that the defenses in Avdiivka are strong due to eight years of defenses being built in the area. It’s true that some small portions of the line dating from 2014 are still being held by Ukraine in the area, but that doesn’t explain 12 km penetration to the north (started in March of 2022) or the six km penetration in the south (started in August of 2022), leaving Avdiivka surrounded on three sides. Now there are reports that second- and third-line defenses were never created. Where Russia has moved forward, Ukraine is defending from hastily-constructed defenses that they dig under fire, not planned defenses that were constructed well, or even rudimentary trench lines. A statement by a Ukrainian fighter…
https://twitter.com/wartranslated/status/1719331765536379377/photo/2
Not all Russian vehicular losses since October 9th has been visually confirmed, but 191 of them have…
https://twitter.com/GeoConfirmed/status/1719553325102690801
These are Russian vehicles that were killed before the offensive and were still on the field, but not counted…
https://twitter.com/GeoConfirmed/status/1719553327992569976
A Ukrainian journalist’s assessment of the situation…
https://twitter.com/wartranslated/status/1720118662885994942/photo/1
Russia keeps losing men and equipment. It also keeps slowly pushing forward in the north…
https://twitter.com/NOELreports/status/1719743194114441614
This video doesn’t have any details, but the person that posted has been reliable and says that two Bradley’s were damaged at the railroad, a kilometer northwest of the Slagheap. That is where the 47th Brigade is. 48.190438, 37.697134…
https://twitter.com/EjShahid/status/1719807247180497096
Russian infantry could not push the Ukrainian infantry off the Slagheap but Russian artillery did. Now, Ukrainian artillery and drones attack Russian infantry that are occupying the Slagheap…
https://twitter.com/EjShahid/status/1719474677117006220
Another small assault is destroyed by mines and ATGMs. 48.209410, 37.691379…
https://twitter.com/region776/status/1719308458565251300
Russian artillery attacks Ukrainian infantry that penetrated a kilometer inside Russia’s northern flank…
https://twitter.com/giK1893/status/1719690625421869465
Russian thermobaric weapons can be extremely effective. Ukraine has been destroying a steady number of them of the last couple of months and it’s satisfying to seem them burn. 48.2062473, 37.7965904…
https://twitter.com/Osinttechnical/status/1719169272105037915
DPICM at dusk, among other things, just north of the Slagheap. 48.188, 37.710…
https://twitter.com/RALee85/status/1719459699710447950
A battalion of Russian troops were hit hard far behind enemy lines…
https://twitter.com/bayraktar_1love/status/1719326674913739139
Compilation of Russian infantry hit by drone bombings 500 m west of the Slagheap. 48.18267, 37.70558…
https://twitter.com/GloOouD/status/1720797106762404244
A Russian fuel train at a siding in Donetsk was hit by Ukrainian artillery…
https://twitter.com/NOELreports/status/1719480973773918464
Another view…
https://twitter.com/Osinttechnical/status/1719398138480373962
The 47th Brigade is in the steel works…
https://twitter.com/NOELreports/status/1720464594655654299
A Russian Ka-52 operating 11 km east of Avdiivka…
https://twitter.com/EjShahid/status/1720829027026412006
Vuhledar
The 72nd brigade has a long history of repelling Russian attacks. Here’s another one 6 km southeast of Vuhledar at a village named Mykilske. 47.75650415635694, 37.329478252760225…
https://twitter.com/NOELreports/status/1720108247875461158
93 km from the front, a Russian ammo depot is ignited. 47.068079, 38.157663…
https://twitter.com/bayraktar_1love/status/1721227283208311282
Robotyne
The only advance reported is west of Robotyne on a 3 km front advancing 500-1000m.
The attrition remains heavy even if territorial changes are small…
https://twitter.com/wartranslated/status/1718253036856918224
An S-300 component near Tokmak is destroyed…
https://twitter.com/NOELreports/status/1720472217308270825
A Russian EW system was hit near Lankove, about 26 km from the frontline. 47.182137, 35.947999…
https://twitter.com/bayraktar_1love/status/1719770818203336743
In the village of Zarichne, 18 km behind friendly lines, Ukraine held an awards ceremony for the best artillery crews in the 128th Mountain Brigade. They were observed and hit by an Iskander missile, killing the brigade’s top artillery commander, many officers. Reports put the casualties at 28 dead and 53 wounded. 46.64561364072328, 32.783622724075535…
https://twitter.com/Just_A_Tweeter_/status/1721109481776459828
An analysis of the missile attack…https://www.facebook.com/butusov.yuriy/posts/pfbid02jq87GCSvHTMVf32DxQk1fjo1LMqmx2ste95zB6iVtgPdogKZRhmwTX73DSKbRhxvl
Kherson
Most of what we know in the Kherson sector is from what the Russians post because Ukraine is saying very little. Krynky seems secure and might be expanding its perimeter in the surrounding woods. Ukraine is also pushing near Poima, and the Russians are complaining about persistent and effective drone attacks.
A pro-Ukrainian source says that surprise announcements are likely coming…
A Russian report says that Ukrainian drones and artillery are preventing Russian counter-attacks against the bridgeheads. This is also the first report I’ve seen describing how Ukrainian kamikaze drones are flown to a spot where a Russian advance is expected and then set on the ground. They attack when the Russians are close…
https://twitter.com/wartranslated/status/1718916013952004400
/photo/1
Another Russian report that Ukrainian forces are “improving” defenses around Pidstepne and moving from Krynky towards Kozachi Laheri, which is 9 km to the west…
https://twitter.com/astraiaintel/status/1719399783436054893
/photo/1
Yet another Russian report says the Russian headquarters for this sector was hit, supposedly with an ATACMS…
https://twitter.com/HolgerLinius/status/1719750321314857242
The Russian commander in the Krynky sector was fired…
https://twitter.com/Tendar/status/1718685910634463694
Drones are hitting targets east of Korsun. 46.74852184537527, 33.217954936142576…
https://twitter.com/NOELreports/status/1720023419062784410
Thirteen Ukrainian troops move quickly westward in Krynky. 46°44'21"N 33°05'35"E…
https://twitter.com/NOELreports/status/1719788134391599306
A Russian assault on Krynky is cut down…
https://twitter.com/NOELreports/status/1720513701101424951
7 km southeast of Pidstepne, a Russian MLRS operates at night and is hit by a drone soon after firing. The damage itself wasn’t filmed by another drone. 46.617975, 32.962583…
https://twitter.com/sternenko/status/1719320805392134529
A small Russian boat is hit by a drone on the Konka river near Poima. Also, take note of the terrain. A lot of the flat lands without trees are marshy. There’s 1500-3000 meters of this land between the Dnieper river and firm land to the south and the only road across it is at the site of the destroyed Antonovskiy bridge. This limits the movement of combat and supply vehicles. 46.64561364072328, 32.783622724075535…
https://twitter.com/NOELreports/status/1720095908623478948
A Russian long range reconnaissance group is destroyed near the mouth of the Dnieper. 46.52456, 32.36127…
https://twitter.com/NOELreports/status/1719969129384313333
A drone attack on Russian trenches near Poima. 46.642533, 32.811564…
https://twitter.com/foosint/status/1721126604007502001
A drone spots for M31 GMLRS strikes on Russian targets, the last being located at Tendra spit. 46.321920, 31.514079…
https://twitter.com/EjShahid/status/1720596026338238731
A glimpse at Ukrainian ferrying operations and survival techniques…
https://twitter.com/Teoyaomiquu/status/1719756161291837797
Crimea
Ukraine used ATACMS, unmanned boats and maybe cruise missiles in an attack on Cape Tarnakut…
https://twitter.com/wartranslated/status/1718902201471348773
In response to Ukrainian attacks on Russian air defense systems in Crimea, Russia is now moving them more often, using decoys and creating new positions…
https://twitter.com/HamWa07/status/1718762429146861934
More details on the topic…
https://twitter.com/kromark/status/1719356480137101799
A shipyard in Kerch was attacked. A closer look at resulting fire is also included…
https://twitter.com/NOELreports/status/1720869745304420566
Unconfirmed reports is that the corvette Askold was damaged…
https://twitter.com/Tendar/status/1720856205063577620
Russia
After the Russian invasion, Lukoil urged the end to the conflict. Six months later, a statement was released regretting the death of the chairman of Lukoil after a severe illness, making no mention of his fall from a hospital window. He was one of several businessmen to die mysteriously…https://www.politico.eu/article/chairman-of-russian-oil-producer-lukoil-dies-after-reportedly-falling-out-of-window/
His successor died last week of “acute heart failure”…https://www.newsweek.com/russia-oil-magnate-vladimir-nekrasov-dead-lukoil-1837300
There was a fire at an explosives plant…
https://twitter.com/FreudGreyskull/status/1719288224785539380
A Russian instructor says the penal Storm troopers are being misused, 40-70% of units are dying, in part because they’re not being evacuated even when conditions allow it. He says regular troops are also dying in large numbers but are at least taking some Ukrainian troops with them…
https://twitter.com/wartranslated/status/1719120355279659327
Ten S400 launchers with an acquisition radar and an engagement radar were deployed at the Rostov-on-Don airport…
https://twitter.com/HamWa07/status/1719805781485244523
On Friday, there were eight explosions near that airport that officials tried to pass off as fireworks. There is no word on any damage, destruction of Ukrainian missiles or what the alleged fireworks might have been celebrating…https://charter97.org/en/news/2023/11/4/570258/
In eastern Russia, an oil depot was burning in Abakan…
https://twitter.com/Activatica/status/1720771498753831065
Forward Observers
Artillery dominates the battlefield and causes over 80% of the casualties of both sides. Since the crew firing the artillery cannot see the target, someone must spot the target and relay the information back to the Fire Direction Center, who then calculates the data the gun crew needs to fire a round close to the target. Drones are very effective in spotting since they can see targets behind enemy lines and targets that would be obscured from the ground. But drones can be shot down, jammed or just in need of a re-charged battery. The forward observers (FO’s) of the Presidential Brigade, 15 km north of Avdiivka, keep their eyes on enemy lines 24 hours a day…
https://twitter.com/wartranslated/status/1718592222482821465
The “Krapiva” mentioned in the caption in the previous video is actually the Kropyva system (see below). At 2:10 is in the video, the FO sees men moving a trench in a manner that suggests they are storing ammo at that location. Movement to stock ammo or retrieve it is one of the more common ways to identify depots. At 2:30 in the video, a soldier is using binoculars that he describes as having laser range-finding capabilities up to 5000 meters and thermal vision. Some also have star light (low light enhancement) capability and can transmit data wirelessly.
This is a good time to bring back this article about the Kropyva system, presented by Tom Cooper on behalf of Adrien Fontanellaz. Simply put, it is a Ukrainian designed communication application that shares observations and data, quickly and securely, so that Ukrainian artillery, mortar and drone teams can act on the information. It is technology that shortens the OODA loop. Notice that the term “force multiplier” is also used in the article…https://medium.com/@x_TomCooper_x/kropyva-ukrainian-artillery-application-e5c6161b6c0a
Diplomacy
Estonia issued a two euro coin supporting Ukraine…https://www.euronews.com/2022/11/30/estonia-introduces-new-two-euro-coin-into-circulation-to-support-ukraine
An Uzbekistan gave one of its citizens a five year sentence for fighting as a mercenary for Russia…https://www.rferl.org/a/uzbekistan-prison-ukraine-separatists/32662140.html
The new far-right Republican speaker of the US House passed a separate bill for aid to Isreal and also remove funds from the IRS which would be used, among other things, to help claim unpaid taxes from the rich. This is an attempt to tie domestic politics and foreign policy together. Biden prosed a joint bill that provided aid to both Israel and Ukraine. The Senate won’t even consider the House bill and will propose their own bipartisan aid package to both Israel and Ukraine…https://www.nytimes.com/2023/10/31/us/politics/israel-aid-republicans-mike-johnson.html?campaign_id=9&emc=edit_nn_20231101&instance_id=106613&nl=the-morning®i_id=139486627&segment_id=148844&te=1&user_id=130c8cdcea44369e69823bf647237422
The US Government and Accounting Office says there is almost no category of US weapon system for which demand is not outstripping production rates.
An admiral of the Dutch navy said, “We give away weapons systems to Ukraine, which is great, and ammunition, but not from full warehouses. We started to give away from half-full or lower warehouses in Europe” and those stores are now running low. He added that NATO nations desperately “need the [defense] industry to ramp-up production at a much higher tempo.” The “the just-in-time, just-enough economy that we have built together in the last 30 years” is not suitable for the realities of modern combat, Bauer argued, saying the system “led to higher prices, even before the war.”
A Norwegian CEO said the munitions industry is at risk of “breaking its neck” if governments don’t put out longer, more reliable contracts. Getting longer contracts, industry has argued, would come with more willingness to expand production sites. Single-location factories that manufacture items with no backup facilities or other substitute options create production shortfalls and leave no surge capacity to call on to meaningfully increase output…https://breakingdefense.com/2023/10/production-and-politics-the-twin-concerns-that-could-derail-arming-ukraine/
Ukraine has never had enough ammo or equipment to overwhelm the Russian army. Much of what it’s received has been very useful, but it has arrived slowly and in small numbers. The ammunition production is slowly being increased over a two year period. The small number of armored vehicles arrived almost a year after they could have been sent. The UK stopped producing tanks in 2017. Germany ordered 18 new tanks to replace the ones sent to Ukraine and they should be delivered in 2025…https://apnews.com/article/germany-leopard-tanks-ukraine-6d718265ded5e9d2e291dbae5f7487fc
Defense companies will not increase production without a contract. Governments will not spend the money to provide the overwhelming force needed for a quick victory. If they continue aid Ukraine over the years, this will end up costing them more money.
The Israeli war is now competing for resources and there is the possibility that it may escalate. China is using its growing economic strength to threaten Taiwan, and there is instability in the Caucasus, Balkens and Africa. World politics are increasingly unstable and climate change will only add more pressure. If the US and its allies want to save money…and lives…it needs to spend money not just to build the factories, but to secure the resources used in the factories. Currently, they have dwindling reserves, little resiliency in their supply and production lines and little to no surge capacity. The slow political response to these challenges will result in increasing the number of challenges.
(….to be continued….)
Thanx for report.
By the way, "Sharp Kartuza" you mentioned it's just Ukrainian translation of "Peaky Blinders"
Thank you so much.