Don's Weekly, 5 May 2025: Part 4 (Russia, USA & Ukraine, Equipment)
by Donald Hill
(…continued from Part 3…)
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Ukraine
Rostec has 700 companies and produces more than half of Russia’s military equipment. Ukraine has a list that identifies 243 enterprises and their relationships to each other. They say if these facilities are neutralized through sanctions or destruction the remaining Rostec enterprises wouldn’t be able to make up the difference.
Ukraine believes 8,000 prisoners of war are in Russian captivity, but every time prisoners are exchanged they receive people Russia had previously denied holding. Russia is also holding 2,000 civilians. In three years 4,306 Ukrainians prisoners have been returned. Taganrog seems to be the worst prison by consensus.
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Diplomacy
After backing out of a nuclear deal with Iran in his first term, Trump wants to negotiate a new nuclear deal and he wants to stop Iranian support of the Houthis in Yemen. To that end, he threatened to put sanctions on anyone that buys Iranian oil. Chinese state-owned refiners stopped buying sanctioned oil from both Russia and Iran but small independent Chinese refineries buy up to 90% of Iran’s oil exports.
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Equipment
Ukraine has been working on its own technology to reduce thermal signatures. They also incorporate forms of camouflage to break up the outlines of individuals, and the suits are resistant to moisture and can be used in hot or cold weather. When such a poncho is used in terrain and the soldier is stationary it can be very difficult to detect him.
Ukraine has been relying on drone-dropped mines to immobilize Russian vehicles. They now have anti-tank mines that were produced this year, although the rate of production wasn’t disclosed.
Estonia is building a factory that will produce 600 tons of RDX each year starting in 2028. That is enough explosive to fill 100,000 155mm shells.
Rheinmetall broke ground with a factory in February 2024 and projected to produce 50,000 shells in 2025 and 200,000 155mm shells and 1900 tons of RDX by 2027, but they now plan to make 350,000 shells.
One NASAMS unit destroyed 150 missiles and drones. Over 900 targets have been destroyed by NASAMS and 94% of their engagements are successful.
After repairs, an Israeli Patriot system will be sent to Ukraine. Germany or Greece is considering providing another system. Ukraine has eight systems but two need to be repaired. Ukraine is still critically short of missiles.
Ukraine’s Delta combat information system integrates different platforms and just passed a NATO standards test.
F-16s donated by Denmark, Netherlands and Norway removed their Link 16 digital transfer systems at the insistence of the US out of worry that Russia might get their hands on the system. After months of negotiations, Ukraine’s F-16s were recently re-equipped with Link 16 and Sweden sent two ASC 890 early warning and control aircraft. The Ukrainian air force says that they usually only intercept two-thirds of incoming Russian cruise missiles because of gaps in radar coverage, low flight paths and shortages of air defense systems. The ASC 890 can track aircraft 400 km away and can detect low-flying aircraft, such as cruise missiles. With the Link 16 system they can guide F-16s and Mirages to intercept incoming missiles and drones that are not in range of any air defenses. Its radar does have a blind spot to the front and rear of the aircraft and can track objects within a 120 degree arc on both sides of the aircraft.
The US stores retired aircraft for parts, training and occasional restoration. They are sending F-16s to Ukraine for parts.
The US is halting purchases of HMMWVs and their replacement, the JLTV just as it was starting production. They are also cancelling that M-10 fire support vehicle that has had typical developmental issues with changing requirements since 2013. The AH-64E helicopters will remain but the AH-64D’s will be retired along with high-value drones. The efforts to replace the Bradley and Stryker vehicles might also be cancelled. Because of the demonstrated evolution of warfare in Ukraine, the money from these programs will be diverted to other efforts that will have a greater potential impact. The US favors overmatch capabilities, which cost money to develop and don’t always work, but these are the capabilities they wish to acquire and the target dates by which they hope to become operational:
● A Precision Strike Missile with terminal guidance (to be operational in 2027)
● Electronic Warfare and UAV dominance (by 2027)
● Division-level strike drones (end of 2026)
● Motorized and Mechanized anti-drone capabilities (2026-27)
● 3D printing and other advanced manufacturing in frontline units (2026)
● AI augmentation of command and control at corps and divisional headquarters (2027)
$36 billion will be spent on modernization in the next five years. Initially, ten divisions will receive 1,000 drones each that will conduct reconnaissance, strike operations and provide logistical support, such as providing ammo to front line units. They plan to integrate phones, tablets and internet technologies (sound familiar?), and invest $3 billion in drone interception and EW systems. Frontline manufacturing and 3D printing will probably play a role in drone replenishment. Acquiring the equipment is not enough. “We have to learn how to use drones, how to fight with them, how to scale them, how to produce them, and how to use them in our battles so that we can see beyond the line of sight,” said the commander of a cavalry regiment.
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US Relations with Ukraine
A critical component of all diplomacy with the US now is how Trump feels about the interaction. Bad deals can’t be called out for what they are without risking Trump’s wrath and the inevitable retaliation that will follow. Understanding this, diplomats try to frame agreements that provide some appearance of victory for Trump while holding firm against proposals that would be detrimental to their interests.
Trump’s objective was to quickly end the war and normalize relations with Russia. The conditions of a peace agreement were of little consequence. Since Ukraine depends on allied aid and the US provided the bulk of the military aid, Trump believed he could force Ukraine into an unjust deal while giving Putin most of his demands. This led to the ambush in the oval office on February 28th and the suspension of intelligence and equipment deliveries for a week on March 3rd.
But Ukraine and its allies have an advantage because Russia cannot afford the political cost of stopping the war. On March 29th, President Stubb of Finland spent a day in Florida socializing with Trump. It helped that Stubb was a good golfer in his youth and that he and Trump teamed up to win a tournament staged by Trump’s golf club. Stubb was also able to explain how Russia does not negotiate in good faith and has no desire to support a ceasefire, despite their rhetoric with the US.
Three weeks after Stubb’s visit, the Pope died on April 21st. Two days later, Trump told Vladimir to stop the unnecessary attacks on Ukrainian cities and said that “things will happen” if the attacks continue. The Pope’s funeral created an opportunity for brief visits with Macron, Starmer, and most importantly, Zelensky. Equally important, Vance and Witkoff of the pro-Russian faction were not in Rome. Trump left Rome before a possible second meeting with Zelensky the next day, but he publicly stated that there was no reason for Putin to attack civilians with missiles and he wondered if Putin was just stringing him along and wasn’t interested in peace after all. He suggested that Putin might need to be coerced with more sanctions.
With the change in momentum, the minerals deal was finally signed, one that had better terms for Ukraine than the deal they were willing to sign in February. Ukraine currently earns a total of $1 billion a year from all of its natural resources although it holds trillions of dollars in untapped resources. But the minerals won’t be mined within Trump’s lifetime. Soviet-era maps of the resources have not been modernized or vetted. 99% of mineral exploration fails. Of the 1% that succeeds, 99% will never end up as a producing mine. It takes an average of 18 years to construct a mine that can operate for 30-80 years. Each mine also needs infrastructure (electricity, rails, etc.) to support operations. It is a century-long investment that will span the evolving politics of several generations. The deal does not exclude Ukraine from integrating with Europe, nor does it force Ukraine to pay for military aid that was provided in the past. It does not provide Ukraine with security guarantees but, importantly, the deal can be portrayed as a success and a sign of progress.
Soon after the minerals deal, the White House approved the modest sale of $50 million worth of hardware and services to Ukraine. Ukraine would like to buy up to $50 billion worth of US weapons, focusing on items that only the US could provide, but previous attempts to purchase weapons had not been approved. These are purchases, not free aid, but they are important because the US is the only source for some weapons. HIMARS systems and missiles are important, but Patriot air defense systems and missiles are critical. Zelensky’s offered to buy ten Patriot systems for $15 billion, and would like to receive a license to build the systems and missiles in Ukraine, but neither proposals have been approved.
Senator Lindsey Graham, who is always open to changing his firm convictions, called Zelensky a great ally and fighter in early February, but after the oval office meeting at the end of February he doubted the US could ever do business with Zelensky again. Still, Trump mentioned the possibility of Russian sanctions, and with the changing winds, Graham co-sponsored a bill with 72 senators to impose tariffs of 500% on anyone that buys oil, gas or uranium* from Russia, even if they purchase oil below the price cap. Current sanctions only apply to entities that transport or buy Russian oil above the $60/barrel price cap. This is the actual representation of the US political support for Ukraine when the intimidation of Trump is removed.
If the sanctions bill is brought up for a vote and passes in the Senate it would still have to pass in the House. The MAGA faction does not support Ukraine in any way, and with a very narrow Republican majority in the House they could once again cause trouble for Speaker Johnson, much like they did when US aid for Ukraine was withheld a year ago. With the support of the non-MAGA House Republicans and the Democrats, plus the support of Trump, the House could once again find a path towards passing a bill that aids Ukraine. An alternative route is that the State Department could impose the tariffs/sanctions based on Trump’s approval.
In an unstable political environment, the last couple of weeks have given Ukraine reason for hope. The pro-Ukrainian faction in the Trump administration and Republican party seem to have made some progress but the anti-Europe faction is still arguing their case. Ukraine and her allies still need to negotiate the shifting ground to keep the pressure on the Russian economy and to gain as much US equipment as it can, even if it’s purchased instead of given.
After Trump won the election last November, a former UK diplomat said that losing Ukraine would be worse than losing Afghanistan, which Trump blamed on Biden and called a national humiliation. When Trump cut off aid and intelligence to Ukraine in March, Senator Graham bravely echoed the remarks about Afghanistan. Trump excluded the Afghan government from the negotiations with the Taliban just as he excluded Ukraine from the peace talks as he negotiated with Russia. He provided the Taliban with much of what they wanted in return for few concessions, much as he provided Putin with much of what he wanted in return for few concessions. And yet, he has shown in the trade wars and the peace negotiations that changes in his initial demands can be made.
While Ukraine expressed support for a ceasefire and peace under certain conditions, Russia has shown less enthusiasm in words and deeds. Since he is not inclined to provide military aid to Ukraine, the only leverage Trump has over Russia is increased sanctions. Several Trump administration officials have talked about backing away from the peace talks, saying they will stay engaged for the next 100 days, but they will not mediate and any progress in the peace talks must come from Russia and Ukraine, not the US. They also made it clear that any failure of the peace talks will be the responsibility of the combatants, but should any success be realized, that would be solely because of Trump’s negotiating skills. In the meantime, they will not lift any sanctions on Russia, and there is still the Senate bill on increased sanctions pending.
A former US diplomat to Ukraine believes that “irritation and impatience and even frustration with Putin is way up,” and that Trump might be less “star-struck” by Putin than he was in his first term. He adds that Trump is in a stronger position relative to Putin than he was in his first term because Putin is now the junior partner to the Chinese and his economy is in very bad shape.
It’s important for Ukraine and its allies to maintain the diplomatic momentum they have with rhetoric and engagement that protects their interests and still provides Trump with the cover of success and progress. Theoretical future aid from the US would be nice, but if the US continues to allow the sale of equipment and maintains or increases the sanctions on Russia then Ukraine and its allies continue to grow in strength while Russia will increasingly struggle to maintain its wartime production.
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*The US buys half of Russia’s uranium exports - for US$1 billion a year. Russian uranium imports cover 25% of US annual demand.
As a Norwegian I am somewhat particular towards Nasam. When you write: «One NASAMS unit destroyed 150 missiles and drones. Over 900 targets have been destroyed by NASAMS and 94% of their engagements are successful.» it seems that they are making a worthwhile contribution and is a good system. (Actually seeing Tupolev 16 attacking the claim enhances the feeling. Because when he bothers he feels you are on to something. Otherwise he ignores.)
How many brain cells did you lose re-capping all of Trump's erratic and illogical proclamations? Anyway, THANKS!