Don's Weekly, 5 May 2025: Part 1
by Donald Hill (intro by Tom Cooper)
Hello everybody!
Here we are: the first review in May this year.
As so often, it’s been a week of the claimed and perceived, opposed by the ‘facts’. The claimed and perceived were Pudding’s ‘cease-fire-offers’, Dumpf’s ‘peace negotiations’, Dumpf/Zelensky’s ‘Minerals Treaty’, and other nonsense, ambient sounds, and lots of babbling…
The ‘facts’ were packed with high explosives.
The Russians continued their campaign of missile- and UAV-strikes: 5 ballistic missiles and 170 UAVs on 1 May; 150 UAVs on 2 May, 2 ballistic missiles and 183 UAVs on 3 May, 165 UAVs on 4 May, 2 ballistic missiles and 116 UAVs the last night… Sure, the mass of the Russian UAvs was shot down or jammed. For example: yesterday alone, official Kyiv claimed to have shot down 69 and jammed 80… Still: far too many came through. Not only because the coordination of Russian missile- and UAV-operations is getting better, or because these are ever-better-supported by electronic warfare but, what’s worse, because Ukrainian stocks of surface-to-air missiles are critically low. So much so, over 50% of the Russian UAVs reported as felled are meanwhile shot down by Ukrainian F-16s and Mirage 2000s. What a surprise then, scores of civilians were killed and wounded, all over Ukraine…
The Ukrainians hit back, ‘almost in fashion’. In a - very complex - operation that lasted up to 24 hours, on 1 and 2 May, the SBU and the PSZSU deployed a total of about 255 UAVs, 14 attack drones, 8 Storm Shadow/SCALP air-launched- and 4 Neptune ground-launched missiles, plus an unknown number of ADM-141 TALD decoys, to strike numerous targets in the occupied Crimea. They systematically overpowered and/or knocked out the Russian air defences in Sevastopol, Yevpatoria, Saky, and Hvardiiske areas. Except for air defences, known targets included, for example, a major complex at Cape Fiolent, in Sevastopol (the, well-known, 475th Regiment/Electronic Warfare Centre of the Black Sea Fleet). Simultaneously, the Ukrainian Magura-7 naval drones also sortied to hit Russian-occuppied off-shore platforms with guided missiles. As the Russian Airspace Force (VKS) attempted to hit back - and its super-turbo Su-30s haven’t got any better weapons for that purpose but their internal 30mm autocannons and unguided rockets - it was taken by surprise: deploying AIM-9M Sidwinder (air-to-air) missiles, on 2 May the Ukrainian unmanned naval vessels shot down two Su-30s (one crew went in with the jet, the other ejected and was picked up by a Russian civilian vessel).
Additionally, F-16s, MiG-29s and Su-27s of the PSZSU continued striking foraward headquarters, supply depots, and troop concentrations of major Russian Army units (for example, on 4 May a single Su-27 hit the HQ in Vovchansk with two precision guided weapons). In turn, the VKS continued releasing scores of UMPK glide-bombs: fortunately, thanks to Ukrainian electronic warfare systems like Liwa, the precision of these remains minimal.
Mind that not one such operation is undertaken by ‘just one fighter-bomber’: sure, videos are showing single Ukrainian F-16s, or MiG-29s, or Su-27s releasing their PGMs… but, every single such sortie is supported by deployment of attack-UAVs to strike Russian air defences, as well as electronic countermeasures. And mind, the VKS certainly tried to intercept the incoming strikers: it just failed to kill the Ukrainian jet - that one Su-27, and all the others.
This time.
This is making this air war, actually, more intensive than back in February-March-, or May-June 2022. That is so because neither side dares appraoching the frontline without operating in multiple, well-coordinated formations, and with support of massive volumes of electronic countermeasures. It’s ‘just so’ that both sides are releasing next to no reports about it and thus there’s ‘little to see’.
It’s similar on the ground: the Russian ‘spring offensive’ is, reportedly, already in full swing. ‘Just’ making next to no progress (except in regards of increasing the Russia’s already deft casualty statistics). If nothing else, somebody there between the Keystone Cops in Moscow (the Russian General Staff) is keen to apease Pudding with yet another ‘major victory’ for 9 May. Several ZSU units have spent so many FPVs the last two weeks (as confirmed by dozens of videos released by them, too), there is a growing number of calls for help with replenishing their stocks…
Talking about 9 May: of course there is going to be a major military parade on the Red Square in Moscow. And of course Pudding offered a ‘cease-fire’ for that opportunity: after all, he wants to keep his show safe, not to be ashamed when half the world is going to watch his celebration on the TV. Of couse Zelensky turned this offer down: what’s the point of any additional of the Russian quasi-cease-fires?
With other words: make no mistake and think something else, this war is literally ‘raging’.
***
Kursk
Ukraine “permanently disabled” (not destroyed?) a 50- or 70-year-old P-19 radar. Such systems are available in dozens on both side of the frontline, and they can still track targets 160 km away.
4 km south of Basivka, Russian motorcyclists ride over mines and infantry are hunted by the 36th Brigade.
North Korea sent 12,000 troops in the fall of 2024 and 3,000 replacements at the beginning of this year. About 600 of them died and 4,100 were wounded. 2,000 injured soldiers were returned to North Korea this year. In 18 months, North Korea sent 5 million rounds of artillery shells and rockets, accounting for over 50% of the ammunition fired by the Russians. 120 170mm SPGs and 80 other pieces of artillery, and 220 rocket launchers were shipped. They sent over 148 short-range ballistic missiles and are expected to deliver another 150 missiles in 2025. In return, North Korea received oil and technical assistance for satellites, drones and anti-air missiles.
***
Belgorod
There was a minor breach of the border by Ukraine that advanced 500-1000 meters. Russian artillery has been targeting the new incursion.
Seven more wrecks were identified on the Russian logistical road to Goptarovka.
***
Kupiansk
‘We do not like’ what’s going on in this sector. Obviously, the ‘genious’ of the General of Fantastic News (Syrsky) can’t care less; Drapaty is busy elsewhere (Pokrovsk, plus the corps-command re-organisation), and the ZSU troops west of the Oskil River are understaffed and undersupplied. Result: continuous Russian advances. No matter how minimal… in grand total, they are becoming ‘unpleasant’.
The 429th Achilles drone regiment continues to destroy Russians, this time near Petropavlivka. South of Lozova, Russians on motorcycles are eliminated.
3 km behind the front line a Russian self-propelled gun is hit.
(…to be continued…)
Thanks Don and Tom. I heard Israel is releasing a Patriot launcher or maybe a battery to Ukraine. I hope what they have in storage will be available.
"2 May the Ukrainian unmanned naval vessels shot down two Su-30s (one crew went in with the jet, the other ejected and was picked up by a Russian civilian vessel)."
As usual, Don reposting UA claims without double-checking. Only one SU-30 is down, there''s even a video proof.
This, of course, does not diminish the level of idiotism of RU High Command that send precious birds and pilots to fight sea drones with unguided weapons.
"In turn, the VKS continued releasing scores of UMPK glide-bombs: fortunately, thanks to Ukrainian electronic warfare systems like Liwa, the precision of these remains minimal." Sad that "proven" UA sources do not mention that VKS started to use UMPK of new mod, less vulnarable to EW.