Don's Weekly, 5 February 2024: Part 2

(…continued from Part 1…)

Ukraine

In 2022, NATO worked with Ukraine to establish a ten year plan to rebuild its defense industry. Ukraine produced three times the amount of equipment in 2023 than they did in 2022. Part of the plan was to shift away from Soviet equipment…https://www.politico.com/news/2022/10/12/pentagon-chief-ukraine-support-00061387

Ukraine will start producing quantities of 155mm shells in two, maybe three years…https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/ukraine-us-companies-jointly-produce-155-caliber-ammunition-minister-2023-12-07/

Recognizing that most of its 122/152mm artillery ammo is produced by its biggest threat, Ukraine started to develop a 155mm artillery system in 2016. Last July it was revealed that they’ve been using it in combat and are alreadys producing more. Ukraine produced a small amount of 155mm shells to aid in its development…https://www.criticalthreats.org/analysis/ukraines-long-term-path-to-success-jumpstarting-a-self-sufficient-defense-industrial-base-with-us-and-eu-support#_edn11c429156abe858e9eb3ea4dadd30ca914

Rheinmetall will help Ukraine set up a factory that is supposed to produce 400 KF51 tanks a year. The KF51 uses the Leopard 2A4 hull and a new turret with an autoloader for its 130mm gun…https://www.defensenews.com/global/europe/2023/03/21/how-realistic-is-it-for-rheinmetall-to-build-a-tank-plant-in-ukraine/

They already signed a deal to produce 105mm guns with BAE…https://www.thedefensepost.com/2023/09/01/bae-produce-arms-ukraine/

A $40 million from a contract to provide mortar ammo was embezzled. Five people were arrested…https://www.nytimes.com/2024/01/28/world/europe/ukraine-corruption-defense.html?te=1&nl=the-morning&emc=edit_nn_20240129

207 Ukrainian POWs were returned home in a deal brokered by the UAE. 36 had serious illnesses or injuries. They were captured in Mariupol, Snake Island, Kherson and Kharkiv. 195 Russian POWs were returned. This is the first POW exchange since the Il-76 was shot down. Russia claimed that 65 Ukrainian prisoners were on board but has yet to produce any bodies…https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/2024/01/31/russia-ukraine-prisoners-war-exchange/

Ukraine blocked 10,000 surveillance cameras connected to the internet that Russia can hack and use for surveillance, much like a drone. A month ago they did just that, using a car park camera and an apartment surveillance camera on a balcony to target Kyiv, which lost four people and wounded 70 others in that attack. They changed the angle on the apartment camera and connected it to YouTube so they could see what the camera was recording…https://www.businessinsider.com/russia-used-kyiv-surveillance-cameras-huge-missile-attack-ukraine-2024-1?r=US&IR=T

Ukraine has enough of its own gas that it won’t need to import any this winter…

https://twitter.com/KyivIndependent/status/1752634987726156161

The rumors of Zaluzhny being fired were denied by Zelensky’s spokesman on January 31st, and the Ministry of Defense stated on Telegram that it wasn’t true. Media reports continue to say otherwise…https://www.independent.co.uk/news/world/europe/ukraine-army-chief-valeriy-zaluzhnyi-zelensky-b2487088.html

There is strong support for Zaluzhny among the military…https://www.kyivpost.com/post/27438?fbclid=IwAR36PiWyF_Z4xkFr0PMk9Sh9N0lUoYPzoFXxwsqPflDNLVK7mtPQGF3FbuY

Zaluzhny wanted to conduct an attack in Zaporizhzhia in 2022. Ukraine had less equipment then but Zaporizhzhia didn’t have its extensive defenses. Because of concerns about Ukraine’s ability to conduct multi-brigade operations, the US encouraged them to attack in Kherson instead. By March, 2023, Russia was already digging trenches and establishing minefields in Zaporizhzhia. Instead of attacking then, Ukraine waited to train more units with western equipment that recently arrived. By June, when the offensive was launched, the defenses included some of the densest and deepest minefields the world has ever seen…https://www.businessinsider.com/ukraine-wanted-a-bold-counteroffensive-but-us-disagreed-book-2024-1

Shahed drones likely brought down by electronic warfare…

https://twitter.com/Tendar/status/1751239481737220190

Mud will stop a vehicle in its tracks…

https://twitter.com/AndreiBtvt/status/1751690256104013864

***

Russia

A Ukrainian drone traveled 900 km to an oil refinery in Yaroslavl but was defeated by local electronic warfare jamming or spoofing…

https://twitter.com/front_ukrainian/status/1751901022891499595

Russia’s invasion drove some Russians to offer to spy for the CIA. The Wagner revolt created a lot more. The CIA has been created videos on Telegram and YouTube to recruit spies. They won’t say how many came forward but the videos are working and they say it’s a generational opportunity…https://www.nytimes.com/2024/01/30/us/politics/cia-burns-putin-russia.html?te=1&nl=the-morning&emc=edit_nn_20240131

Many Russian soldiers don’t receive proper medical attention when wounded. Some of them are being sent back to assault units without being healed…https://www.kyivpost.com/post/25337

There was widespread internet outages in Russia last week. It was likely caused by Russia trying to move all users to a national domain server so they would have more control over the flow of information…https://www.newsweek.com/russia-internet-outage-blackout-1865520

***

Diplomacy

Some of EU leaders told Orban he risked legal suspension. Others sympathized with him when he complained about everyone opposed to him because of ideological differences. In the end, he voted for the €50 billion aid package for Ukraine…https://www.nytimes.com/2024/02/01/world/europe/eu-hungary-ukraine-fund.html?te=1&nl=the-morning&emc=edit_nn_20240202

The International Court of Justice says that Russia is not a terrorist state and will not order it to pay reparations to Ukraine. It does urge Russia to abide by treaties, though…https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/world-court-rule-whether-russia-violated-international-treaties-ukraine-2024-01-31/

….as if that is going to help, considering the West is wholeheartedly supporting exactly the same behaviour by a certain of its ‘special allies’…

And then the US governance… The US House Speaker now wants to vote on aid to Israel separately, something Biden says he would not support. They refuse to consider the immigration bill the Senate negotiated because Trump wants to preserve it as a campaign issue. Republican Senator Lankford of Oklahoma is urging them to reconsider. The Oklahoma state Republican party censored Lankford and said they will not support him if he continues to hold this position.

Useful read on the US politics: Letters from an American (sometimes more hopeful, other times describing a hopeless situation, full of systemic incompetence… but always excellent for your orientation).

In December, the US created a policy to disconnect any company that aided Russia from the US financial system. Since then, some Turkish banks are suspending Russian accounts that opened after February of 2022. Other Turkish banks are suspending most Russian accounts. A lot of different ways in different countries were used to evade sanctions and this was one of them…https://meduza.io/en/feature/2024/02/01/turkish-banks-reportedly-cracking-down-on-russian-accounts-in-response-to-u-s-secondary-sanctions

$16.2 billion in profits from frozen Russian assets will soon be heading towards Ukraine…https://kyivindependent.com/ft-eu-billions-in-profits/

(….to be continued…)