Don's Weekly, 5 December 2023: Part 2

Dec 05, 2023

(….continued from Part 1….)

Russia

The Committee of Soldiers' Mothers of Russia, (later called Union of the Committees of Soldiers' Mothers of Russia), was formed in 1989 and was representative of the internal resistance to the war in Afghanistan. They fought for the rights and better treatment of soldiers. But Putin is not Gorbachev. In 2014, after saying that 100 wounded soldiers were transferred to a hospital in St. Petersburg were probably fighting in Ukraine, the organization was labeled a foreign agent. In 2021, the group stopped many of its activities after a list was created of 60 actions that would be considered actions of foreign agents.

Against this history, several requests to hold an outdoor protest rally, but in Novosibirsk and Chelyabinsk, authorities compromised with protestors and allowed them to hold indoor rallies in an auditorium and city hall. Only family members were allowed to attend. Some of the slogans they used were, “Do only the mobilized have a homeland?”, “Make way for someone else”, and “No To Indefinite Mobilization”…https://www.nytimes.com/2023/11/27/world/europe/russia-ukraine-protests-women.html

People line up to buy eggs in Saratov…

https://twitter.com/Gerashchenko_en/status/1730945242965172692

There are two rail lines through Siberia and Ukraine detonated explosives as a train passed through a 15 km tunnel on the northern route. When train traffic was diverted to a local bypass above ground, explosives were detonated on that train that was carrying oil and aviation fuel. Until the damage is cleared and repairs made, the northern route is effectively blocked. No estimate has been declared for when the rail line will be fixed but while Russia is very effective at maintaining and repairing rail lines, this is Russia’s longest tunnel and it was equipped with heaters to prevent ice from forming and they had issues with water when digging the tunnel. The southern route is still open but it has a steeper grade, limited the size of the load the trains can carry…https://www.kyivpost.com/post/24856

This is video of the bypass sabotage…

https://twitter.com/NOELreports/status/1730596415712219144

The actual ability to shoot isn’t as important as understanding that war is an important part of society…

https://twitter.com/Lyla_lilas/status/1729333603224396202

A market burns in Rostov-on-Don…

https://twitter.com/NOELreports/status/1730305606290899386

Factories are only sending four of the nine charges that normally arrive with 120mm mortars. The more charges on a mortar bomb, the farther it can travel, up to 9 km with nine charges. With only four charges, they only have a range of 6 km. This means the mortar teams have to fire closer to the front lines, putting them in greater danger…

https://twitter.com/wartranslated/status/1729073003076452373

Redut is presented as a Russian mercenary company but it is a GRU front for recruiting. The Russian MoD pays the salaries but there are no official records of service…https://www.rferl.org/a/redut-fake-russia-gru-pmc-ukraine/32708853.html

Russia’s defense budget is 1/3 of its budget for next year. Sociall spending is 2/3 that of defense spending and business taxes will be increased…https://meduza.io/en/feature/2023/11/24/militarizing-the-economy

“Russia’s national defense budget for all of 2022 was 5.5 trillion rubles; as of October, it already stands at 6.4 trillion rubles for this year (Euromaidan Press, October 23). These figures make it seem as if the budget has been steadily increasing. Devaluation has been so severe that the current budget would have to grow to at least 6.8 trillion rubles ($72.65 billion) by the end of year to be comparable to last year’s budget.”…https://jamestown.org/program/third-quarter-arms-production-undermines-the-kremlins-narrative/

“The Russian manufacturing industry is experiencing unprecedented growth and is showing rapid growth, shifting its focus from traditional export industries. But, economists are sure, the limit is already coming in this sector of the economy, which “took off” only due to “three letters” - the military-industrial complex.”…https://newizv.ru/news/2023-11-23/v-obrabatyvayuschey-promyshlennosti-rf-nablyudaetsya-burnyy-rost-no-eto-predel-423993

Diplomacy

There was a report that Russia refused to exchange prisoners since last August, and a single report that there are 16,000 Ukrainian prisoners of war…

https://twitter.com/ChrisO_wiki/status/1730995200917393585

Zelensky says that unit commanders continue to exchange prisoners. It’s possible that Russia isn’t officially exchanging prisoners but Russian commanders are…

https://twitter.com/NOELreports/status/1730959161842659376

The wife of Ukraine’s head of intelligence, and several other employees, were poisoned. Budanov himself was not poisoned…

https://twitter.com/Lyla_lilas/status/1729448326657888422

Not for the first time, Russia threatens Moldova. At the same time, they accuse everyone of being anti-Russian. "In fact, Moldova is destined to be the next victim in the hybrid war against Russia unleashed by the West." - Lavrov at the OSCE meeting…https://www.newsweek.com/russia-issues-ominous-warning-about-next-victim-1848565

The president of the Czech Republic says that next year will be good for Russia if Ukraine isn’t given more weapons…

https://twitter.com/Lyla_lilas/status/1729404671112970568

Russian propaganda can be laughable at times, but they are very good at manipulating social media…

https://twitter.com/Lyla_lilas/status/1729380188415279350

"Give me 75 billion euros a year for 2-3 years, and I will make sure that the Ukrainian army wins"…

https://twitter.com/Lyla_lilas/status/1729332992248574131

The US Senate is controlled by Democrats who support aid to Ukraine, as do the non-MAGA Republican senators. The House is in a difficult situation, as it is barely controlled by the Republicans. All of the Democrats and most of the Republicans in the House support aid to Ukraine, but the MAGA Republican representatives do not. You might think that with 3/4 of the House supporting Ukrainian aid it would pass, but it’s not that simple, and it's all because of the voters that support Trump.

Any bipartisan deals that both the Democrats and Republicans might agree upon risks angering Trump, and therefore the voters that support him, and a Republican representative might lose the next primary vote (where parties choose their candidates) to a more conservative candidate. So the Republican leader of the House has to navigate a very tricky situation, even if he supports a particular issue. Aid to Israel, which most of congress supports? He links that to cuts to the IRS budget “to pay for the aid”, even though the expanded budget will bring in more revenue by enforcing existing laws that the wealthy are avoiding. Aid to Ukraine? He ties that to a border wall with Mexico. Both of those add-on measures are opposed by Democrats and supported by the MAGA politicians. These extra measures may not even be included in the final aid packages after Senate opposition and negotiations, but there has to be at least the appearance of hard-core confrontation. Against that entire background, the Speaker of the House says that he expects that a bill giving aid to Ukraine will pass within a month, even though it won’t be as big as the Biden administration wants…https://www.axios.com/2023/11/27/speaker-johnson-aid-ukraine-israel-house?fbclid=IwAR0Kw1tdQfdiuWhcFScd1WwlZlilA3L2or6s4YNz6lca8yJi4MWuHz9DoC0

We already know that 90% of the US military aid given to Ukraine is spent in the US. Here are some details…https://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/2023/11/29/ukraine-military-aid-american-economy-boost/

The EU will provide Ukraine with 5 billion in military aid for each of the next four years and 50 billion euros in that same time period.…https://www.radiosvoboda.org/a/news-ievrokomisia-oboronna-stratehia-es-ukraina/32709498.html

Germany provided Ukraine with 300 million euros to help repair the $8.8 billion of damage to Ukraine’s energy grid…

https://twitter.com/MJaegerT/status/1729150570005471675

If Hungary supports Russian imperialism, as expected, then each individual country will create its own aid package to Ukraine and the collective sum will be the same amount. "Hungary risks bending the stick. We would love to have them in the lineup, but there comes a point when people get sick of Budapest holding everyone hostage. The workaround is tedious, but we have it if needed," said one EU official. …https://www.radiosvoboda.org/a/news-yes-plan-b-uhorshchyna-veto-ukrayina/32679320.html

In 2014, Ukraine lent a Dutch museum hundreds of artifacts from Crimea to display. A month later, Russia invaded and annexed Crimea. For nine years there have been legal battles between Russia and Ukraine over ownership of those artifacts, as incredible as that seems. Last week, they were returned to Ukraine, who said they will be returned to the Crimean museums when the Ukrainian flag flies over them again…https://www.nytimes.com/2023/11/27/arts/design/crimea-gold-treasures-return-ukraine.html?campaign_id=9&emc=edit_nn_20231202&instance_id=109149&nl=the-morning&regi_id=139486627&segment_id=151531&te=1&user_id=130c8cdcea44369e69823bf647237422

Last year, thousands of African migrants traveled to Russia and were then sent through Belarus to the borders of Poland, Lithuania and Latvia. In response, Poland built a 5.5 meter high, 186 km wall. This year, Russia sent hundreds of migrants to within 20-30 km of the Finnish border and provided them with bicycles to complete the trip as an old Finnish-Russian agreement said that people needed to cross the border in a vehicle. Finland specifically banned bicycle crossings and closed all of its border crossings for two weeks. It’s begun a 200 km wall to protect part of its 1800 km border. With temperatures ranging from -15 to -20 C, it’s fortunate that Russia is providing shelter for most of the migrants. Some migrants bought dilapidated Russian cars to drive to the border and they are waiting in Finnish emergency heated tents to be interviewed by border guards. In the meantime, piles of bicycles are abandoned on the border…

Hungary will never supply weapons to Ukraine because it wants peace…

https://twitter.com/NOELreports/status/1729951808846430429

Equipment

Confirmation that a Patriot was used to shoot down five aircraft in one operation back in May…

https://twitter.com/deaidua/status/1729172210265243965

The Russian S400 cannot effectively intercept ballistic missiles. The missiles for the S400 have fragmentation warheads which are effective against aircraft and cruise missiles, but not against ballistic missiles, which is a large object intercepted on its downward trajectory already heading towards the target. The fragmentation can damage the missile but it won’t destroy it or change its trajectory.

The US found out about the ineffectiveness of fragmentation warheads on ballistic missiles when it claimed to have shot down 97% of the 42 Iraqi SCUD missiles. Later analysis reduced the claim to 55% shot down and finally they realized just 9% of the missiles were shot down. That led to the development of a new missile designed to impact the incoming missile with a direct hit. This “hit-to-kill” kinetic weapon proved to be very effective and was implemented in other western missile systems.

The S400 doesn’t have a “hit-to-kill” missile. Therefore, we can infer that it cannot intercept a ballistic missile…https://en.defence-ua.com/weapon_and_tech/unwillingly_russians_admit_their_s_400_cannot_repel_ballistic_missiles_even_with_newest_40n6_interceptors-8519.html?s=08&fbclid=IwAR0auf2ffsBn9my-5d2H7EMxHLPJwCoRBL0lHVlYA-hjv_dfblNmip_YGlY

Ukraine isn’t supposed to use weapons received from the west inside Russia, but they have their own ballistic missile, the Tochka. In 1991, they had 500 of them, but rocket fuel expires and in 2022, they only had 90 left. They fired two at a Russian airbase in Rostov on February 24, destroying an Su-30SM. Most of the others they fired on occupied land inside Ukraine, using most of them up by the summer of 2023. But they built the missiles for the Soviet Union so they have the capability of building either Tochkas or its upgrade, the Hrim-2. After a six month absence, Tochkas were used in Belgorod, just over the border with Russia, and in the occupied Donetsk. It’s one more weapon that can be used for deep strikes and something the S400 isn’t very good at stopping…https://www.forbes.com/sites/davidaxe/2023/11/23/after-a-six-month-lull-the-ukrainians-are-lobbing-tochka-ballistic-missiles-again/?sh=6a9bf0347adb

Ukraine completed testing of one EW system and is currently testing two other systems. These systems are designed to detect and jam frequencies used to operate drones and from GPS (US), GLONASS (Russia), Galileo (EU) and Beidou (China) that help guide artillery and missile strikes…https://armyinform.com.ua/2023/12/01/zahyst-vid-bpla-u-minoborony-dopustyly-do-ekspluatacziyi-novi-zrazky-okopnoyi-reb/

60 F16s have been promised to Ukraine...

https://twitter.com/NOELreports/status/1730495435528098071

The GLSDB deliveries are delayed until 2024…

https://twitter.com/NOELreports/status/1730372200698433767

The owner of a Ukrainian drone company says that Ukraine produces 50,000 drones a month and Russia produces 300,000 drones a month. I would like to see other reports before accepting those figures…https://forbes.ua/innovations/ukrainski-inzheneri-pratsyuyut-u-boeing-ta-airbus-virobniki-droniv-strazhdayut-cherez-defitsit-kadriv-yak-rozvyazati-tsyu-problemu-20112023-17379

The latest guess on the delivery of the GDSDM is the end of December…

https://twitter.com/RALee85/status/1730385735511879740

Russia has around 100 Su-35 fighters and maybe 80 Mi-28 helicopters. They sold some of them to Iran. Iran will also be licensed to build Mi-28 and Ka-52 helicopters…https://mil.in.ua/en/news/iran-to-arm-itself-with-russian-mi-28-helicopters/

Electronic Warfare

Electronic warfare is a very detailed and technical subject but I thought I’d talk about a few broad concepts. The three categories of the discipline are electronic attacks (jamming and spoofing), electronic support and electronic protection.

Jamming

Radio frequencies can be jammed to block communications between units, between the drone and the operator, or between a GPS-guided weapon and the GPS* satellite. It is simply a powerful transmitter that overpowers or interferes with radio waves on a particular frequency. A single frequency can be jammed or an entire range of frequencies can be jammed by a single transmitter, but the more frequencies that a transmitter jams, the weaker the interfering signal will be on each frequency. The distance a system can jam is determined by the power of the transmitter and environmental factors. Since radars create and receive radio waves, they can be jammed, as well.

*You can substitute other satellite navigation systems for GPS, such as GLONASS (Russia), Galileo (EU) or BeiDou (China).

Synthetic Aperture Radar (SAR) is a radar on a satellite or plane that can create images unaffected by clouds or smoke. They are affected by other radio signals, whether the intent was to jam them or not. The SAR sends out energy on a certain frequency and some of that energy is reflected back to the receiver and some is not. Algorithms then arrange both the returned signals and the lack of a returned signal into an image.

If another radar on the ground is sending signals where the SAR is scanning, the SAR receives them, as well. The SAR cannot differentiate between the signals it sent and the signals the ground radar sent, so it uses both to create the image. But very little of the ground radar’s signals scatter away from the SAR receiver. It’s as if the ground radar is shining a flashlight into the face of the SAR, effectively blinding the SAR, and the resulting image reflects that.

The image below was created by a civilian SAR satellite. You can probably make out two overlapping boxes, indicating that there are two ground radars sending signals to the SAR receiver. An optical satellite using visible light would be able to see the two ground radars but this is the cloudy season and one observer said that there might be only 2-3 days a month in which a commercial optical satellite could get a clear view of the emitters…

https://twitter.com/ReinaldoDMM/status/1728434064728658122