Don's Weekly, 5 August 2024: Part 4

by Donald Hill

(…continued from Part 3…)

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Russia

In 2014, Ukraine was surprised by the war started by separatists and the subsequent invasion by Russia. Ad hoc units were formed in desperation, including one unit composed of Ukrainian air force personnel formed to fight as infantry, defending the outpost of Zenit south of Avdiivka. In February 2023, all Ukrainian air force ground units were consolidated into a single brigade. They have long been trained as ground forces. In 2024, Russian mechanics and ground crew personnel, trained to support aircraft, are now being sent to the front as infantry. That is also desperation.

Morozovsk airbase was hit by drones and an ammo storage facility was destroyed.

Ukraine continues to work on Russia’s electrical grid, hitting four substations.

The Omsk refinery caught fire for some reason.

A warehouse in Rostov burned. No reports on the cause or content. Oil storage units in the region were hit by six drones.

In this region, civilians signing contracts with the army get 210,000 rubles. This is causing resentment for those that signed for 40,000 and 15,000 rubles, especially since they have to buy a lot of their own equipment.

Russian forces near Sumy and Chernihiv are conducting sabotage and reconnaissance activities. Five of their special forces troops were killed as they tried to cross the border.

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Ukraine

Syrskyi said quite a few things in an interview: The front line is 3,700 km long and active combat is taking place on 977 km of it. Russian casualties were three times or more than Ukraine’s casualties and refused to update Zelensky’s figure of 31,000 Ukrainian deaths since 2022 that he provided in February. He’s committed to preserving lives and would rather give up ground than defend ruins to the death. F-16s will allow more accurate ground strikes and will help against Russian cruise missiles but will have to remain 40 km or more from the front line to avoid being shot down. Ukrainian strategic drones have hit about 200 Russian infrastructure sites. The Kerch bridge is still an objective. “But I know that we will win. I know how I have to do it. And I’m sure that we will do it.”

A Russian ballistic missile (probably Iskander-M) was intercepted over Dnipro. An intercepting missile has to directly hit a ballistic missile to be effective.

After a Russian bomb fell on a house Velykyi Burluk, located in the Kharkiv region, a firefighter responded to the call only to find out it was his house.

The number of Ukrainian athletes at the Olympics is the smallest in its history. Hundreds of athletes have been killed. The home of one athlete was destroyed but here parents were unhurt. As they evacuated through the Russian lines, her mother wore her daughter’s Olympic silver medal from Tokyo around her chest because Russians were confiscating anything of value from civilians passing through their lines. One athlete was fighting on the front line as he trained for the Paralympics. While Ukrainians train under air raid sirens, Russians train in peace, and Ukraine decided they will not compete in any activity that includes a Russian or Belarusian athlete. Ukrainian judo athletes have their opinion of Putin’s judo skills, service members and a member of parliament take leave to train for the Olympics.

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The Prisoner Swap

In 2018, the daughter of the founder of the Chinese telecom company Huawei was arrested in Canada for violating US sanctions on Iran. Shortly after, two Canadians were arrested in China for espionage. They were held incommunicado and later given trials behind closed doors. The Chinese national was living in her Vancouver mansion and roaming the city with an ankle bracelet monitoring her location. In 2021, the Chinese executive admitted she misled financial institutions about her dealings with Iran and if she completed her obligations under an agreement the US would drop criminal charges. As she flew back to China, the two Canadian men were also flown home, having lost a lot of weight. One had been sentenced to 11 years in prison and the other was awaiting sentencing when he was released. China denies their arrests had anything to do with the Huawei case.

A week after Russia’s open invasion, Brittney Griner was arrested in Russia for having a vape cartridge with marijuana. She was sentenced to 9 years in jail. Viktor Bout was arrested in 2008 for weapons trafficking to terrorist organizations and sentenced to 25 years. The two were swapped in 2022. The US also wanted to bring Paul Whelan home but the Russians refused. Bout was subsequently elected to a regional government seat as a member of a far-right nationalistic political party.

Whelan, who bragged about knowing an FSB major, was arrested for espionage when he arrived to attend a wedding in Russia. The list of 15 other Russian, German and US citizens were released after being charged with crimes such as espionage, treason, terrorism, possession of cannabis and speaking against the war (a 25 year sentence). The eight prisoners released to Russia were accused or convicted of espionage and hacking as a criminal enterprise. And then there was Vadim Krasikov, who shot a Chechen fighter in broad daylight in Berlin in 2019. Putin wanted him released for Griner, but he was a German prisoner. He was willing to pay a lot for him but didn’t want it to seem like it was a lot. It was not an easy decision for Germany to release him. The negotiations involved seven countries. Besides Russia, the US, Germany, Slovenia, Norway and Poland held prisoners. Turkey facilitated discussions and was the location for the swap. Left behind is a teacher and a musician who had marijana, a US-Russia citizen visiting her family, arrested for donating $51.80 to a Ukrainian charity, and hundreds of political prisoners. They are all bargaining chips for the future release of Russian operatives.

The Americans was a TV show in which Russian agents raised their kids as Americans that didn’t know they were Russian. Two of the Russian spies that were exchanged had children that were born in Argentina and spoke Spanish. Their parents then moved the family to Slovenia. He had an IT startup. She had an art gallery. They were arrested in 2022. The 8 and 11 year old children only learned they were Russian as they boarded a plane from Turkey to Russia. Putin greeted the children in Spanish with “Buenas noches”, as they did not speak Russian. He later wiped a tear from the daughter’s eye.

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Diplomacy

Ukraine’s foreign minister visited China and China said it would amend drone export controls without mentioning Russia or any other details.

Hungary made it easier for citizens and spies from Belarus and Russia to enter their country and the EU.

Russian efforts at sabotage are increasing but the former MI6 head in the UK reminds us that Russia is using social media to increase the social divisions. Last week they had a direct hand in escalating the clashes in the UK. He said, “People just don’t seem to understand the extent of the Russian attitude to conflict and the way every aspect of their relationship with us will be seen as a basis to attack us. I think we are slightly complacent, and I don’t think people necessarily understand the danger that we’re in.”

For two years Hungary and Slovakia chose not to find energy alternatives to Russian oil and Hungary even imported 50% more Russian oil. Now that Ukraine cut the Lukoil exports, the two countries' oil imports have been reduced by 33% and they want the EU to help. They demanded that the EU must take up the matter with Ukraine within three days. The EU said they need time to study the situation and will make a decision when it is time to make a decision. The two countries have threatened to withhold diesel and electricity from Ukraine but that would bring repercussions from the EU. All EU nations are required to keep 30 days of oil stored, and the two countries are looking for legal loopholes that allow other countries not affected by sanctions to transfer the oil. An observer said, “They have been actually benefiting directly economically from their close proximity to the Ukrainian market reselling cheap Russian energy sources at a huge premium,” all “while withholding supply of weapons and while also being trojan horses for Russia in Europe.”

Angry with Ukraine for stopping Russian oil shipments and wishing to emulate Orban, the leader of Slovakia’s far-right party will meet with Putin in Russia.

(…to be concluded in the Part 5…)