Don's Weekly, 4 May 2026: Part 1
by Donald Hill (intro by Tom Cooper)
Hello everybody!
Four years of uninterrupted monitoring of wars are showing their effects. Nope, I’m not sitting there in some filthy trench, scarred, hungry, tired, dusty and sweaty, listening for the sound of an incoming shell or UAV, and wondering what is it going to hit. But, copying with all the mass-hysteria and group-idiotism, genocide and terror - is exhausting. Thus, have taken a few additional days off - not off the work, but off the social media. Cannot but conclude, the life is ‘astonishingly quiet’ without constantly checking what’s up. Especially without all the hatred flying around. And, after 40 years in this ‘business’, cannot but conclude that clearing the head is good for one’s mental health.
Of course, you’re not here to read about walks in quiet nature, enjoying the nature in spring and similar. Thus, I better hand over to Don.
Overview
Ukraine continues to attack oil pipelines, refineries, export terminals and tankers, and they are repeating attacks to further degrade oil exports and refining. This may force further reduction in oil extraction from the ground because there will be nowhere to send it. This is important because oil prices continue to rise.
Russian aircraft were struck too - with long-ranged drones at a range of 1,700 km. Buildings do not move, but aircraft move around and also are stationary for long periods. It is unknown if the aircraft were hit because of an assumption they would not be moved or if there was terminal AI guidance or if they were piloted. Russia will need to protect its aircraft with some form of cover - or move them out of range. Again.
Russia continues to lose air defense assets at a pace that should concern them. Their only hope now is to commit more manpower to drone interception teams and they plan to add 78,800 people to their drone forces by the end of 2026. When the reorganization is complete, they expect to have a strength of 210,000 compared to 100,000 for Ukraine’s drone forces. This could impact Ukraine’s long-ranged drone attacks but any counter-drone force must be integrated into a sensor system that can detect incoming attacks and a command and control system to move personnel around.
Ukraine conducted more long-ranged strikes than Russia. Russia conducts some tactical drone attacks up to 50 km, but a lot less than Ukraine, and the Ukrainian tactical strikes are regularly reaching 150 km.
The tactical situation in each sector ranges from stable to nearly stable. Ukraine is conducting very small counterattacks to eliminate Russian penetrations of up to 7 km west of Huliaipole.
Vovchansk
The 57th Brigade hunts Russians around Vovchansk.
Kupiansk
Russia continues to infiltrate, including north of Kupiansk. Ukraine has been eliminating the deep penetrations. A Russian assault group gathered in a building in Kindrashivka. UGVs with explosives attacked the building.
A Russian assault in between the two Pishchanes was stopped.
Borova/Lyman
Russian artillery and tanks were hit 6-18 km from the front lines.
A Russian airstrike in northwestern Lyman.
Individual Unmanned Ground Vehicles (UGVs) have taken Russian positions or held a defensive position for 45 days. In December 2024, Ukraine’s 13th Brigade conducted an assault using only aerial and ground drones. By the end of this year, the goal of Ukraine’s 3rd Corps is to replace 30% of its infantrymen with UGVs. Eventually, they hope to replace 80% of the frontline troops with drones. The remaining 20% of the infantry will become an elite specialized force that would perform tasks that the drones could not perform. The 3rd Corps is working with the 2nd Corps to improve training and standardize combat operations for the entire army. The 13th Brigade is part of the 2nd Corps.
Sloviansk
A Ukrainian self-propelled gun is hit.
Kostiantynivka
Russia continues to pound southwest Kostiantynivka with airstrikes and then try and slip infantry into the rubble through Illinivka. Attacks from Stupochky continue, and Russia can’t make progress towards Stepanivka yet.
A Ukrainian SPG is destroyed. Russian medical evacuations around Bakhmut.
A Morning Walk into Kostiantynivka
This video was made in early March.
Troops usually stay in the city for about 2-4 weeks before they rotate out. Moving into or out of the city is not easy. In January, they used armored vehicles to drive into Kostiantynivka for rotation changes but they can’t do that anymore because of the Russian drones. Even before they drive into Druzhkivka by truck they have to wait until there are no drones overhead. Infantry are dropped off at dawn, when the drone operators are switching from night optics to daylight optics, and they walk the last 11 km to the front.
The UGV (ground drone) traffic is heavy and the hulks of destroyed UGVs or armored vehicles are left on the roads. An occasional armored vehicle with a cage or an ATV screams up or down the road. The sound of rifle fire indicates that another Russian drone is not too far away. UGVs used for casualty evacuations speed down the road. The rifle fire is constant and it’s always aimed at drones, not Russian infantry.
Fuel and food are carried on foot during rotation. The heavier supplies are sent by UGVs. They see another UGV wreck on the road and recognize it as one from their unit because of the Starlink mount welded onto it. They take a smoke break in the courtyard of a bombed out house. A stroller sits outside. An accordion sits in a window without glass.
One infantryman described being in Kostiantynivka horror, fear, just horror. The adrenaline is pumping hard. Like a horror movie. The Russians infiltrate in groups of 1-3 people into the city and the Ukrainians hunt them down and either kill or capture them.
They pass a four-man team rotating out of the city as another UGV drives down the road. They were asked what was going on and they replied, what isn’t going on? The outgoing team said a fiber optic drone just destroyed another UGV and everything is on fire. They were there for a month and there are ‘enough’ engagements with Russian infantry. The Russians advanced far enough forward that mortar fire could reach the city. They didn’t want to linger and kept marching to safety.
In 2-3 weeks there will be more greenery that will provide concealment, but the Russians know this and will drop mines into the vegetation. One of the soldiers said that in an earlier rotation a rocket landed three meters from their bunker and destroyed a generator so they went to get the generator from the mortar team. On the way, he spotted the mine 20 cm from his foot, otherwise, it could have been bad, he said.
The closer they get to Kostiantynivka, the more wrecks there are. The road is littered with shell casings from rifles firing at drones. Another UGV drives by.
They are standing near a traditional rest stop near the road. A cat is dozing outside as distant rifle fire engages a drone. Now the team is engaging the drone from a distance. It’s a fiber optic drone and they don’t hit it. Soon, there’s an explosion. It might have hit an armored vehicle in the distance. A soldier takes a quick nap sitting up next to the cat. A four-man team walks by them on the road, heading into the city.
For all the hell in the city, there are still civilians there. One soldier says he put civilians in touch with Bohdan Zuyakov, well known for helping civilians evacuate. Others leave the city to get groceries and then return. From where they were standing, he pointed to a car and said one man left in that car, got groceries and then the back of his car was hit by a drone on the return trip. He was unhurt, so he took the groceries out of the car and walked the last few kilometers back into the city. Civilians are killed on that road every week. A father, mother and son tried to evacuate at night even though they were told not to. A Molniya drone attacked them and killed the mother.
More rifle fire from where they just came, then an explosion. Over the radio, a report that they just shot down an FPV and expended 20 rounds. Two older soldiers arrive on electric scooters. Boxes of supplies are attached to the scooters with plastic wrap. They’re an ATGM team that just finished a 25 km round trip to Druzhkivka after charging their scooters with a generator.
Pokrovsk
Russia continues infiltration attacks aided by heavy bombardments but is making little progress. The heavy Ukrainian airstrikes and a small Ukrainian presence in Rodynske may represent a small counterattack, but Russian passage through that village was at least disrupted. Russia was unable to expand around Hryshyne.
One of several Ukrainian airstrikes on Rodynske. A T-80 south of Pokrovsk was hit by drones until it burned. Russians in Hryshyne were bombarded.
The Russians used rockets, bombs and artillery shells to bombard Vodianske.
(…to be continued…)
Thanks for the update!
The 'Morning Walk into Kostiantynivka' video is really something :o
Thanks for the update. Tom, I would love to read about your reflections on nature and being of social media. I have no problems with your need for a break. Just take it. Regarding Dons summary that was very nice. But the gem here was the morning in Kostiantynivka. Really. Thank you for that.