Don's Weekly, 4 March 2024: Part 4

(…continued from Part 3…)

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Russia

According to official Kyiv, Russia suffered 983 casualties a day in February, which is the highest monthly average. Russia suffered a total of 355,000 so far…

https://twitter.com/DefenceHQ/status/1764244391630184736

A graph of the monthly averages of Russian casualties, by year…

https://twitter.com/DefenceHQ/status/1764245317283668041

A warehouse in a suburb of Moscow caught fire…

https://twitter.com/OSINTNic/status/1763132642638127491

A Russian icebreaker in St. Petersburg is on fire for one reason or another…

https://twitter.com/Gerashchenko_en/status/1763200377548145151

Russia claims that three drones were electronically disabled while trying to attack one of the largest factories of explosives in Dzerzhinsk, 770 km from the Ukrainian border. There were no other reports to verify this…https://www.pravda.com.ua/eng/news/2024/03/1/7444452/

A Yekaterinburg power plant is supplying energy to three military factories - and was hit by a homemade explosive device…

https://twitter.com/EuromaidanPress/status/1763933732321239151

A police shootout in Ingushetia resulted in two wounded policemen, five dead gunmen and one dead civilian…

https://twitter.com/Tendar/status/1764045852467773934

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Ukraine

The defensive positions throughout Ukraine continue to be improved…

https://twitter.com/front_ukrainian/status/1761691309025173537

Syrskyi has evaluated the brigades and singled out the 54th Mechanized, 25th Airborne, 47th Mechanized and 79th Airborne Assault brigades for praise. He also said the 110th Mechanized will be pulled off the front line after two years of hard fighting under difficult conditions. His concerns are with the brigades that had the same capabilities as others and failed to effectively stop the Russians. Some brigades have issues with untrained staff within the headquarters and he sent personnel to those units to observe and train them. With other brigades, he felt the commander was part of the problem and he removed them…https://www.pravda.com.ua/eng/news/2024/03/2/7444637/

A collaborator in occupied Ukraine discusses some of the war crimes he committed…

https://twitter.com/Tendar/status/1763966153427243224

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Diplomacy

France reversed its policy and now supports buying artillery shells outside the EU market. The Slovakian prime minister, who does not support Ukraine, released a restricted document that said a number of NATO and EU member states were considering sending troops to Ukraine on a bilateral basis. Macron replied, "There is no consensus today to send ground troops officially but ... nothing is ruled out. We will do whatever it takes to ensure that Russia cannot win this war. The defeat of Russia is indispensable to the security and stability of Europe.”…https://www.politico.eu/article/emmanuel-macron-doesnt-rule-out-sending-troops-to-ukraine-ammo/

The next day, Germany, Poland and other NATO countries said they wouldn’t send troops to Ukraine. The French defense minister clarified that there had been discussion but no consensus on sending troops to train and help remove mines and ordnance away from the front lines…https://apnews.com/article/nato-stoltenberg-ukraine-troops-france-slovakia-5d4ed747861a3c0edb8f922fa36427c2

And then Macron said that the EU should only by weapons and ammo from the EU or Norway, even though he supports the Czech initiative of buying artillery shells outside the EU and supports France buying non-EU materials with French money…

https://twitter.com/shashj/status/1763160820903485557

Putin then threatened the west with nuclear war if they sent troops to Ukraine. Putin previously threatened nuclear war at the outset of the open invasion in February, 2022 and after the Kharkiv offensive in the fall of 2022. This is the third time he’s made the threat…https://www.cnn.com/2024/02/29/europe/putin-nuclear-war-state-of-nation-russia-ukraine-intl/index.html

It will cost $2 billion to pay for the 800,000 shells. Half of it has been funded and the first shipment could arrive in Ukraine in weeks. To put the quantity in context, in two years of war, the US supplied 2 million shells. European shell production continues to increase and this stockpile will be a nice bridge until those A Czech representative said the effort shows that the EU and Canada are actually doing something instead of waiting for the US….https://euromaidanpress.com/2024/03/02/bloomberg-ukraine-may-receive-first-shells-through-czech-led-artillery-initiative-within-weeks/

Finland will not place any restrictions on weapons it sends to Ukraine and urges Germany to send the Taurus missile…https://www.politico.eu/article/finland-ukraine-strike-russia-territory-provided-weapons-antti-hakkanen/

Slovakia sent its S-300 system to Ukraine after Russia’s open invasion. Initially, the US provided long-ranged air defense to Slovakia with a Patriot system. It was then sent to Ukraine and was replaced by the SAMP/T from Italy. With Slovakia’s new government openly hostile to Ukrainian aid, Italy is withdrawing its SAMP/T, saying it’s needed elsewhere…https://newsukraine.rbc.ua/news/italy-decided-to-withdraw-its-air-defense-1709435486.html

The Latvian parliament banned Russian wheat imports but this is not supported by Lithuania because of world hunger and the need to ship it out of ports.…https://www.lrt.lt/en/news-in-english/19/2206094/lithuania-not-planning-to-follow-latvia-in-banning-russian-grain-imports

Transnistria is a breakaway region of the small country of Moldova that is occupied by 1500 Russian troops. They’ve asked Putin for protection against Moldova…https://www.politico.eu/article/breakaway-moldovan-region-transnistria-invites-russia-invade/

Two polls taken in November 2023 and February 2024 show that US support for Ukrainian aid increased from 52% to 60%. Democratic support is currently at 80% while Republican support is at 43%. Eight in ten Americans view Putin unfavorably while four in ten view Zelenskiy favorably. Six in ten support using US troops if a NATO ally were attacked…https://apnews.com/article/poll-ukraine-aid-congress-b772c9736b92c0fbba477938b047da2f

The President, Vice President, Senate majority and minority leaders and the House minority leader met with the House majority leader Johnson to convince him to bring the Ukraine aid bill up for a vote, where it is widely expected to pass. Johnson then repeated that the US must solve its border problem first, even though he won’t bring up the bi-partisan Senate bill that would be expected to pass…https://www.cbsnews.com/news/ukraine-aid-white-house-meeting-chuck-schumer-mike-johnson/

Mitch McConnell, the Repubican leader in the Senate and a strong supporter of Ukraine, will relinquish his leadership position in November. 22 of the 49 Republican senators voted for the Ukrainian aid bill that is now stuck in the House…https://www.usnews.com/news/politics/articles/2024-02-28/mcconnell-will-step-down-as-the-senate-republican-leader-in-november-after-a-record-run-in-the-job

Orban will visit Trump in Florida next week…https://thehill.com/homenews/campaign/4497620-hungarys-orban-visit-trump-mar-a-lago-next-week/

Five Bulgarians were arrested in the UK in February, 2023 and charged with spying ofr Russia. As part of that investigation, a sixth Bulgarian was arrested…https://www.bbc.com/news/uk-68419311

Zelensky traveled to Saudi Arabia, which negotiated the return of 300 Ukrainian prisoners in September, 2022, and might be able to help return more prisoners and deported personnel. They also talked about economic ties and help with reconstructing Ukraine…https://kyivindependent.com/zelensky-arrives-in-saudi-arabia-to-meet-crown-prince/

57% of India’s citizens have a positive view of Russia, 59% have a positive view of Putin and 71% say maintaining access to Russia’s oil and gas market is more important than condemning Russia for invading Ukraine. Russia says they’re making progress on joint production of military equipment and Germany is conducting negotiations for hundreds of thousands of artillery shells…https://kyivindependent.com/der-spiegel-germany-india-ammunition/

288,000 Russians and 20,000 Ukrainians have traveled to Sri Lanka since 2022 and many of them are still living there. Any Russian or Ukrainian with a visa had it extended until February 22, 2024. Some locations are called “little Moscow '' for the density of Russian inhabitants and in one such location a Russian organized a party with a white dress code and also stated “Face control: White” in the announcement. The party has since been canceled and the organizer left the country and has apologized. For those still in the country, their visa expired without renewal and they have until March 7th to renew it…https://www.kyivpost.com/post/28749

In November, Armenia said it would not leave the ollective Security Treaty Organisation (CSTO) led by Russia. Armenia now says they’ve frozen their membership in the organization, joining Belarus, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan and Tajikistan that already left…https://www.reuters.com/world/asia-pacific/armenia-freezes-participation-russia-led-security-bloc-prime-minister-2024-02-23/

France and Armenia are working on deals for night vision goggles, Mistral missiles, artillery, anti-drone systems and assault rifles. Armenia is also looking to buy weapons from India. There are no plans to close down the Russian bases in Armenia that hold 10,000 troops…https://www.politico.eu/article/france-seeks-to-up-ante-in-former-soviet-union-with-new-weapons-for-armenia/

A Russian media outlet released transcripts reportedly showing German personnel discussing how to transport Taurus missiles to Ukraine and train Ukrainians should Germany theoretically approve of such a transfer…https://bnnbreaking.com/conflict-defence/military/german-military-discusses-taurus-missile-transfer-to-kyiv-amidst-political-tensions

(…to be continued…)