Don's Weekly, 4 April 2024: Part 5
(…continued from Part 4…)
Diplomacy
It is no longer a question of if House Speaker Johnson will bring the aid bill to Ukraine for a vote, it is only a question of ‘when’ and ‘what it will look like’. The bill that the Senate sent the House provides $60 billion in aid for Ukraine as well as $35 billion to Israel, Taiwan and Pacific allies. Johnson has talked about modifying the bill by:
● Lowering the amount of aid to Ukraine.
● Sending the aid as a loan to be repaid.
● Separating the aid to Ukraine from aid to Israel, as many Democrats do not want to send military aid to Israel.
● Using frozen Russian assets to fund the aid. The US has $5 billion in Russian assets compared to $300 billion in other western countries.
● Tying aid to Ukraine to lifting Biden’s pause on the additional export of liquid natural gas due to climate concerns. The US already exports more LNG than any other country and their exports will double in 2027 based off of expansion already approved. The Republicans are against any export restrictions and Johnson’s argument is that Russia makes money off of LNG exports to other countries then US exports would lower Russia’s profits. Johnson is also from Louisiana, which would greatly benefit from a proposed export terminal in that state.
Trump urged Johnson not to send money for another country’s war and the MAGA caucus supports his call. NATO leaders have told Johnson how critical the aid is. A MAGA congresswoman made a motion to remove Johnson as Speaker but the Democrats said that if the aid to Ukraine bill is brought up for a vote they would vote for Johnson to remain as Speaker.
Republicans working with Democrats is seen as treasonous by MAGA members, but traditional Republicans have done so on many issues before. With Democratic support, Johnson’s job is safe for now, and he is searching for ways to minimize the damage, placate the far right and possibly gain other advantages from the Democratic and mainstream Republican support for Ukraine. How long the wrangling takes will determine how long it will be before aid to Ukraine is approved, but it will be approved…https://www.nytimes.com/2024/04/01/us/politics/mike-johnson-ukraine-aid.html?ugrp=u&unlocked_article_code=1.hU0.aloV.0V67wAO3DVUM&smid=url-share
This is a sample view of a non-MAGA Republican. He calls MAGA the “chaos caucus”, mentions ATACMS, and believes the Ukrainian aid in some form will be brought for a vote when Congress returns to session…
https://twitter.com/casualdiot/status/1774516849985662990
Sanctions increased the cost of shipping Russia oil by 50%…https://mbiz.censor.net/news/3450232/vartist_dostavky_rosiyiskoyi_nafty_morem_pidskochyla_na_50_pislya_sanktsiyi_ssha_reuters
In December, the US initiated new sanctions that made it even more difficult to conduct business with Russia without the risk of economic penalty. Since then:
Russian plans to export more natural gas to make of for lost oil revenues have been derailed…https://mbiz.censor.net/news/3464688/sanktsiyi_ssha_seryiozno_zashkodyly_planam_rosiyi_na_eksport_skraplenogo_gazu_reuters
Four entities that sold Russian oil above the $60 limit have been sanctioned…https://mbiz.censor.net/news/3472518/ssha_zaprovadyly_novi_sanktsiyi_cherez_porushennya_obmejen_tsiny_na_rosiyisku_naftu
Russia made organizational changes to obscure ownership of ships. These ships are called the “shadow fleet”, and they transported Russian oil in violation of the sanctions. Half of them have now stopped transporting oil because of enforcement of the sanctions…https://mbiz.censor.net/news/3473168/polovyna_tankeriv_tinovogo_flotu_prypynyla_vozyty_naftu_z_rosiyi_cherez_sanktsiyi_ssha
A Turkish terminal received 11.7 million barrels of oil from Russia last year, seven times more than all the oil it received in 2021. The last shipment of 511k barrels of Russian oil arrived on February 19. It will no longer accept Russian oil. "The new approach of GTS is an additional measure designed to eliminate the consequences of actions outside its sphere of influence and control, despite the company's efforts to comply with all applicable sanctions rules," the company explained…https://mbiz.censor.net/news/3476914/turetskyyi_terminal_vidmovyvsya_pryyimaty_rosiyisku_naftu_cherez_sanktsiyi_ssha
Chinese banks have stopped doing business with Russia. 80% of Russian businesses have switched to countries that do not recognize the sanctions. Turkish and UAE banks have also limited transactions with Russia…https://biz.censor.net/news/3479895/sanktsiyi_pratsyuyut_kytayiski_banky_vidmovlyayutsya_pryyimaty_plateji_z_rosiyi_navit_u_yuanyah
Payments to Russia for the oil that is sold in compliance with the sanctions is delayed by a couple of weeks to a couple of months. The delays reduce Russia’s income for the oil and increases instability in its monetary flow without impacting the supply of oil in the world…https://mbiz.censor.net/news/3480957/rosiya_misyatsyamy_ne_moje_otrymaty_groshi_za_svoyu_naftu_cherez_sanktsiyi_ssha_reuters?fbclid=IwAR0joK8ecOJjwFhu2jwumb9rAJ6S82fHNkHbSWfT6BZ9im1_Xkdvc4Ml7y4
Ukraine denied they were asked by the US to stop attacking Russian refineries out of fear of raising the price of energy. The US declined to comment. If all the Russian refineries were destroyed, unrefined Russian oil would still be avaiable on the world market but Russia wouldn’t receive the revenue for the refining…https://www.politico.com/news/2024/03/22/ukraine-says-west-not-pressuring-it-to-end-attacks-on-russian-oil-facilities-00148673
Stating the obvious, Taiwan’s foreign minister says that if the US abandons Ukraine then China will be more likely to attack Taiwan…https://www.nytimes.com/2024/03/28/us/politics/taiwan-china-ukraine-aid.html?ugrp=u&unlocked_article_code=1.gU0.WvLt.uHz3NjfOUFG3&smid=url-share
In addition to backing social media influence campaigns, Russia is accused of paying EU lawmakers after investigations involving several countries. Immediately after this article is an interview with an MEP candidate from France’s far right National Rally party. He favors Trump over Biden and still supports his party’s plan to take France out of NATO, but not until after the war in Ukraine is over. “The proposal we’ve always advocated … did not factor in war,” he said…https://www.politico.eu/newsletter/brussels-playbook/russias-operation-to-sway-eu-opinion/
I’m not sure why 10,000 shells from Germany to Ukraine is being publicized. That’s 3-5 days at current rates of usage. On the other hand, it’s a little over three months of French production…
https://twitter.com/Gerashchenko_en/status/1774080274336186406
Not everyone in Hungary is happy with Orban…
https://twitter.com/wartranslated/status/1772900338221097028
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The Precision Strike Missile and ATACMS
The Precision Strike Missile (PrSM) is the next generation missile to replace ATACMS, both of which are fired by HIMARS or MLRS. PrSM has a better engine, warhead and GPS antenna. Two missiles are in a pod instead of one, and it has a 500 km range instead of 300 km…https://www.lockheedmartin.com/en-us/products/precision-strike-missile.html?gad_source=1&gclid=Cj0KCQjw8J6wBhDXARIsAPo7QA-zKMA1-ac8nmbYCRRZtdFOshxN5hzNJ4i-uuF7vbsoiI9LqbbUdLYaAglHEALw_wcB
The PrSM isn’t important to Ukraine because they will receive it, because they won’t. It’s important because the US is now more likely to send ATACMS to Ukraine…
https://twitter.com/RALee85/status/1767991689052839950
The US Joint Chiefs of Staff said the risk of escalation is not as high with regards to ATACMS. No mention was made on whether the risk of escalation was still high with regards to using US weapons inside Russia…
https://twitter.com/KyivIndependent/status/1773763371533250637
The number of ATACMS sent might be related to the acquisition rate of the PrSM, or it could just be related to the technical milestones that PrSM production has met. The more certain the US is of future production, the more likely it is willing to accept risk by shipping its stockpiles to Ukraine…
https://twitter.com/ColbyBadhwar/status/1768006031538270596
***
Russia lost 232 IFVs in March, the largest monthly loss since November, 2022. Russian tank losses have remained steady at 70…
https://twitter.com/verekerrichard1/status/1774736878379377063
Russian attacks on infantry by drones is down a little. Ukrainian attacks on infantry by drones is rising…
https://twitter.com/bentanmy/status/1774674144724123860
Russia began the war with 40 240mm Mortars on active duty. There is visual confirmation that 42 were lost, 11 of which were destroyed in the first three months of 2024. 205 have been removed from storage. 198 are still in storage but 30 of those have been cannibalized for parts…
https://twitter.com/HighMarsed/status/1774772309439414299
A report from the beginning of March that Russia deployed 2127 Desertcross 1000-3 vehicles, commonly referred to as golf carts. They have been used in assaults and to evacuate casualties. I’ve probably seen a hundred videos of them being destroyed…
https://twitter.com/JulianRoepcke/status/1764693596291182747
Russia is experimenting with nets for counter-drone warfare…
https://twitter.com/JanR210/status/1773647785570550156
Two inexpensive drones collide mid-air. Given the speed of the drone, the lag time of the video transmission and the operator commands, and the short amount of time that the opposing drone was visible, there was no time to react. The reason one drone of roughly equal value is expended on another is because it denies the enemy reconnaissance information and disrupts any potential attack on a friendly target…
https://twitter.com/bayraktar_1love/status/1772736214082211967
The advantage of self-propelled artillery is that once they fire their rounds they have the potential to move before counter battery radars can track the trajectory of their rounds, trace it back to the point of origin and fire their own artillery rounds on that site. In this war, there are a lot more drones and therefore a lot more chances to see a vehicle moving and attacking it with a drone or with a missile once it stops moving.
Some Ukrainian artillery crews prefer towed artillery. They’ll dig a position that provides some protection for the gun, and dig another position that provides even more protection for them, fire their gun and then run into the shelter…
https://twitter.com/AndrewPerpetua/status/1773365994708230454
The Wild Hornets volunteer organization revealed a mother ship that will carry cheaper FPV drones to extend their ranges, release them and then act as a relay unit for their video and command radio frequencies. Depending on the EW environment, this will allow FPV drones to operate past their normal limits of 10-15 kilometers…
https://twitter.com/EuromaidanPress/status/1773817545297932596
Ukraine didn’t state any quantities, but they say they now produce drones that fly more than 1,000 km. The ones that attacked the refineries flew 700-1000 km…
https://twitter.com/front_ukrainian/status/1774851501455708646
Ukraine received its first Skynex of two air defense systems: they are modular in design, needing a control node, an acquisition radar and weapon as a minimum, but many components can be added.
● The Skymaster Battle Management System is the control node.
● The acquisition radar can track aircraft, helicopters, cruise missiles, drones and mortar shells at 25 to 50 km.
● The detection radar has a 30 km range. This is useful to protect the acquisition radar, which can remain dormant and undetectable until a target approaches the range of the weapons.
● It has a 35 mm revolver gun module that fires 1000 rounds per minute with an effective range of up to 5000 meters that detonates rounds at the same range of the targets, as seen here. The explanation of how the rounds work is here.
● It has a twin 35 mm cannon module that fires 550 rounds per minute for each gun and has an effective range of 4000 meters.
● A High Energy Laser (HEL) module is designed to engage Low, Slow and Small (LSS) targets, such as drones, and is a Counter-Rocket, Artillery and Mortar (C-RAM) weapon. In a seven-year-old promotional video, Rheinmetall says that multiple HEL modules were to engage the closest target and destroy it before engaging the next target. These are supposed to augment, not replace, other air defense modules. The effective range seems to be just over 1000 meters.
● Various missiles can also be added to the system. Some, such as Chiron, Mistral and Stinger, have ranges of 6-8 km, while the Sidewinder has a 35 km range.
An electronic warfare system can also be added to the system.
Thanks Don!
Tom, there was finally a massive drone attack on Russian AB - let’s see the results.
My feeling is, Speaker Johnson will continue delaying the help to Ukraine using all kinds of dirty tricks and procedures available to him.
That's how you destroy the American hegemony and goodwill accumulated over a century