Don's Weekly, 4 April 2024: Part 4

(…continued from Part 3…)

Russia

After Russian TV announced that Shahed construction was taking place in Tartarstan, a Ukrainian drone hit it after traveling 1200 km. A refinery was also reportedly hit in Tartarstan. The video is here.

As big as Ukraine is, Russia is much larger. As the range of the Ukrainian drones increase, the more air defense Russia needs to provide or it will risk losing facilities. Russia is already losing air defense systems faster than they are being produced. This development places additional pressure on Russian air defenses and military production.

The Russians are organizing mobile machine gun and cannon vehicles to counter Ukrainian drone attacks. How much it will help depends on how many of these anti-drone assets are created, on Russia’s ability to detect and track drones and communicate with air defense units, and how these units are deployed. They are most effective when they are located at the target that is being attacked, but there are so many potential targets that it would take more resources than Russia has to protect them all. Russia could deploy them near the border to hit any drones that travel past, but they can only move so fast in the vehicles and they only have an effective range of 1000-3000 meters…and Russia is a big country…

https://twitter.com/RALee85/status/1773929665058468010

Ukraine has a 1200 km land border with Russia and the targets include not just oil refineries, but air bases, power plants, raw material refinement facilities, military industrial factories, ammo depots, headquarters and communication facilities…

That is a LOT of military facilities, industrial complexes and territory for Russian air defenses to defend… and they have had some difficulties detecting and tracking already when much more powerful, as shown in this 1987 video.

Several villages in Vornonezh lost power because at low altitudes ‘power lines are a terrain feature’…

https://twitter.com/BabakTaghvaee1/status/1772268645390889262

Now we know what started the fire at the military factory in Yekaterinburg and that fire suppression is substandard…

https://twitter.com/igorsushko/status/1774870718469300480

Another fire where they produce electrical insulation…

https://twitter.com/Gerashchenko_en/status/1774796313642635658

A third of Russia’s budget is dedicated to the defense industry. Due to shortages of labor, machine workers are making as much as lawyers and white collar workers are joining the industrial force…https://www.moscowtimes.ru/2023/11/15/indeks-delovogo-klimata-frb-nyu-yorka-v-noyabre-neozhidanno-rezko-vosstanovilsya-a113301

The same story continues for thousands of Russians. They sign up for the money. 85% of them die. No one gets their money…

https://twitter.com/Gerashchenko_en/status/1772936779676430489

Between now and July 15, 150,000 Russians will be called up for the annual conscription. As is tradition, Russia once again says that none will be sent to Ukraine…

https://twitter.com/Gerashchenko_en/status/1774350894118658298

Some pro-Russian videos tend to overstate accomplishments and others are presented as current when the event happened months ago. A Ukrainian did a parody of Russian videos, showing this devastating Ukrainian attack on Russian positions last week…or, maybe it was last summer…

https://twitter.com/Teoyaomiquu/status/1772290955686597053

Distillation towers produce gasoline and other products from oil. Russia already banned the export of gasoline for six months to reduce domestic gas prices and lower inflation. The drop in gas production from drone attacks means the gas prices will continue to rise, or Russia will have to subsidize the prices, or they will have to import gas…

https://twitter.com/jakluge/status/1773084536114483589

During the raid inside Russia, Russia dropped bombs on Russians fighting for Ukraine. 14 unexploded bombs have been found inside Russia in the last two weeks….

https://twitter.com/Gerashchenko_en/status/1774688860607259077

A November 2022 article on why Russia eliminated its ability to produce artillery barrels in the past and how the Russian defense industry works…https://novayagazeta.eu/articles/2022/11/02/the-barren-barrels-en

Only the 2S19 Msta-S (self-propelled 152mm) is being produced now in numbers. Refurbished parts are created for other weapons. 30-50 barrels are produced a year and most of those are refurbished barrels from stockpiles…

https://twitter.com/bentanmy/status/1760324422165213340

Based on satellite photos, an estimate that Russia will be able to refurbish tanks for 2-2.5 years. Also included is why one depot is increasing the number of tanks in storage while all others are decreasing…

https://twitter.com/Jonpy99/status/1774755162101252427

Posted a month ago, a thread on Russian artillery units in storage…

https://twitter.com/bentanmy/status/1762117582935687218

Russia relied on the west for machining tools. It cannot significantly expand its production without them…

https://twitter.com/waffentraeger/status/1772956976823079260

***

Ukraine

Syrsky gave an interview which is summarized below (the full interview is attached, too). The points I want to highlight is that commanders and their staff will be continually evaluated and held accountable. Those that have demonstrated competence will be retained. Those that have not will be replaced by others that have demonstrated competence.

Organizational structures are being evaluated. Rear-area support units that have more personnel than are required to perform that unit’s missions are being reduced in size and thousands of soldiers are being reassigned to combat units.

Units that have been on the front line since 2022 are being rotated to the rear for rest, repairs and replacement of equipment. New units will be sent in their place to gain combat experience. These rotations will sustain each unit’s combat capabilities throughout the multi-year conflict…

https://twitter.com/wartranslated/status/1773634829965299826

In addition to the 190 missiles and 140 Shahed drones two weeks ago, Russia was dropping 100 glide bombs a day…

https://twitter.com/KyivIndependent/status/1772026730825371764

A composite image of the flightradar24 data and the Ukrainian warning system data on 3 March, 8-9 pm GMT.

A week ago, a thermal power plant and all the electrical substations were destroyed in Kyiv…

https://twitter.com/KyivIndependent/status/1771969412054073427

That same night, a power plant in Odesa was hit…

https://twitter.com/KyivIndependent/status/1772046241263669648

Three more power plants were later hit…

https://twitter.com/maria_avdv/status/1773602278391304499

Another night of attacks on the energy grid…

https://twitter.com/Gerashchenko_en/status/1774373273330942246

A Shahed drone was shot down over Dniepro…

https://twitter.com/RALee85/status/1773929665058468010

DTEK provides 20% of Ukraine’s energy. 80% of their capability was destroyed in March…

https://twitter.com/KyivIndependent/status/1774127344774480326

The damages in Kharkiv alone exceed $10 billion. The city ended its heating season early…

https://twitter.com/Gerashchenko_en/status/1774886761371517260

Kharkiv decided not to turn on street lights to save energy.

Ukraine is now rationing its energy and is importing some from Poland, Slovakia and Romania…https://en.topwar.ru/239422-ukrainskie-chinovniki-v-rezultate-udara-zmievskaja-tjes-razrushena-polnostju.html

The Russians are extending the range on their glide bombs. Cities next to the Russian border without dedicated air defense systems to threaten the aircraft launching the bombs are in increased danger…

https://twitter.com/Gerashchenko_en/status/1773280919408755122

There were 601 Shahed drone attacks in March and 85% were shot down…

https://twitter.com/ShahedTracker/status/1774630338821554308

Ukraine was once the main supplier of military equipment to the Soviet Union, but that ability withered after three decades of budget cuts and reversing that trend has taken a lot of effort. Ukraine had one Bohdana in 2022, a 155 mm artillery gun with a 30km range that they built domestically. To restart production, they reassembled designers and engineers that had been assigned to menial military tasks elsewhere.

The German company Rheinmetall, three French companies, the UK’s BAE, Sweden, the Turkish Baykar company, are all setting up production facilities for IFVs, multiple varieties of drones, and ammo, and repair facilities for armored vehicles and artillery. The US is in discussion for setting up production facilities for 155mm shells.

Ukraine’s research and development budget increased from $162 million in 2022 to $1.3 billion, and military procurement has increased from $1 billion to $10 billion, ($1 billion of which is spent on drones). Still, Ukraine says that they could produce more if they had more money, and Ukraine’s bureaucracy sometimes slows progress even as a new generation of ministers try to streamline both administration and production methods. Ukraine’s long term goals is greater domestic capabilities and military exports once the war is won…https://www.nytimes.com/2024/04/02/us/politics/ukraines-war-weapons-industry-russia.html?unlocked_article_code=1.hU0.KAVy.frdDhV-XR82K&smid=url-share

Defensive positions are not impregnable but the stronger they are, the more likely they are to keep a defender alive and enhance the destruction of enemy forces. They have no combat power of their own but are a combat multiplier for soldiers, the weapons they use and how the weapons are integrated into a system.

The strongest positions cannot be constructed while under fire, so the concrete structures and trenches reinforced with logs are built behind the front lines. In this five minute video, an engineer operating a specialized trench-digging vehicle says he can dig 70 meters an hour, and the closest he’s dug was 700 meters from enemy positions. Another engineer builds roads, some of them paved. These are vital for moving vehicles and supplies. Strong defensive positions are being built on the border with Russia, Kupiansk has three rings of defenses, Donetsk, and Zaporizhzhia. For some reason, they are also being built in Odesa, although the only Russian threat in the area is the 1,500 troops in Transnietria.

More images of defensive construction…

https://twitter.com/RALee85/status/1738310655797604708

Views of what one OSINT researcher found with commercial satellites…

https://twitter.com/clement_molin/status/1774780075491078173

This is how dragon’s teeth are born…

https://twitter.com/AndrewPerpetua/status/1774780536004718625

Last spring, a lot of farmers were injured or killed when their equipment ran over mines or unexploded ordnance. This spring, several have become casualties as new fields were worked. Since 2022, 50% of Ukraine’s 400,000 cows have been killed and half the farmers are in the army. Ukraine went from being a milk exporter to being unable to meet their own needs…https://www.abc.net.au/news/2024-02-18/ukrainian-dairy-farmers-battle-bombs-to-keep-milk-flowing/103469886

The 1st Assault Company was formed in 2014 as part of the Right Sector right-wing nationalist coalition in Ukraine. It later grew into a battalion and was named the DaVinci Wolve’s after the call sign of its commander. In 2022, it became part of the 67th Separate Mechanized Brigade and its commander was killed in 2023 while fighting in Bakhmut. In January, the medical unit and a large number of the battalion left due to issues with the command personnel and joined the 59th Motorized Brigade, taking the social media accounts with them. They opened a recruiting center in Kyiv and are looking for 500 personnel as members of the DaVinci Wolves. The rest of the unit still associated with the Right Sector stayed with the 67th Brigade…https://militaryland.net/news/part-of-da-vinci-wolves-breaks-ties-with-right-sector/

Critics of Ukraine’s national recruiting effort say it is aggressive, similar to a Soviet-style bureaucracy, and corrupt. It also doesn’t allow people to choose their position and many are afraid that they will be sent to the front with little to no training. There have been reports that justify these fears.

The brigades that receive the recruits say that most of them are old, out of shape and do not want to fight. A member of the Da Vinci wolves (in the 59th Brigade) said that out of 200 personnel sent to them by the government, only 25 were willing to fight. So the individual brigades run their own recruiting programs with the help of marketers that volunteer their time. They interview potential recruits and try to match their skills and desires with available jobs. One recruiter describes it as a date, where they explain what they expect from the recruit and what the recruit can expect from them. They have instagram videos advertising jobs for sappers, drone operators, and a combined arms team conducting and assault exercise. 500 army units use Lobby X, a job search platform, to advertise 3,200 positions that received 80,000 applications.

A recruiting poster for the 67th Brigade in Kiev. There is more advertising for brigade recruitment than there is for national recruitment.

While the national recruiting system is sending them mostly unmotivated draftees, the brigades are competing with each other for motivated recruits. The 3rd Assault Brigade is currently the most successful because of their large social media presence and narrative of success. They hold tournaments in which civilian combat teams compete against each other with weapons that shoot plastic projectiles. Recruits are allowed to take part in training and if they don’t like it they can drop out. None of the brigade recruiters think that their efforts will change the minds of those that don’t want to join, but they believe it motivates those that are hesitant to join…https://www.nytimes.com/2024/03/30/world/europe/ukraine-military-recruits.html?te=1&nl=the-morning&emc=edit_nn_20240331

Ukrainian soldiers that were conscripted before 2022 and whose service term has expired can be demobilized…

https://twitter.com/Maks_NAFO_FELLA/status/1774904539855888718

Last August, a Russian Mi-8 helicopter pilot flying near the Ukrainian border turned off his communication gear, flew under six meters to evade radar and landed 16 km inside Ukraine. Surprised Ukrainian soldiers opened fire, hitting the pilot in the leg. The two unarmed passengers were killed because they reportedly would have killed the pilot and returned the helicopter to Russia. The pilot was given $500,000, a Ukrainian passport and a new name. He was offered a chance to fight Russia or live in Ukraine under the protection of the intelligence agencies. He chose to live in Spain and Russian operatives swore on national television that they would kill him.

He chose to live in a coastal community known for its British and eastern European tourists and for its Russian organized crime activity. There, he went to bars frequented by Russians and Ukrainians, drove a Mercedes S-class car and burned through the money he was given. In February, two men driving a stolen car waited in a parking garage. The pilot parked his car and was walking towards the elevators when the two men called out his name and shot him six times, mostly in the torso. The pilot ran for a bit before collapsing. The two men ran over him in the car when they left and later burned the car…https://www.nytimes.com/2024/03/31/world/europe/russian-defector-murder-spain.html?te=1&nl=the-morning&emc=edit_nn_20240331

Sofia has a lot of jokes…

https://twitter.com/wartranslated/status/1774748407636033734

A Yakutian talks about Russia…

https://twitter.com/Gerashchenko_en/status/1774365088335475135

Nature still exists in wartime…

https://twitter.com/Gerashchenko_en/status/1774775116502601920

“How can we be broken?”…

https://twitter.com/radiosvoboda/status/1772229696916263110

(….to be concluded in the Part 5…)