Don's Weekly, 4 April 2024: Part 2

(…continued from Part 1…)

Avdiivka

The Russians hold Stepove but all the armored assaults on Berdychi originate from the coke plant. The vehicles drive to Stepove and then turn left. At least 22 Russian armored vehicles were known to be destroyed or damaged on that route. Russian bombardments and infantry attacks were heavy, as well, and another M1 tank was lost.

While some Russian vehicles were lost in the vicinity of Orlivka, the Russians conducted an attack with just infantry on Semenivka, only 600 meters away. All the attacks on Orlivka and beyond also originated in the coke plant as small groups of infantry were ordered to make their way to Orlivka. At the village, they assembled into their attack groups. The details of the assault come from the testimony of the survivors.

This is the area both Tom and me were monitoring with… ‘special attention’…the last week or so. At first, there were reports about the Russians not only managing to capture entire Orlivka, but also about them crossing the Durna and then attacking Ukrainians in Semenivka from the south.

The Durna river is quite small. Infantry can easily cross it. The soil condition and river banks determine how easy it is for a tracked and wheeled vehicle to cross it. Google Maps has a close up view of the river here. If you rotate 180 degrees you can see one of the small lakes that are part of the river system.

Semenivka had been heavily bombarded with artillery and airstrikes before, but the Russians were ordered to form three groups and try to approach Semenivka without being detected. The first group was detected and came under heavy machine gun-, mortar-, and artillery fire. The other two groups joined the attack without friendly fire support and also suffered heavy casualties. At some point, “someone” gave the order to retreat to the coke plant. The size of the assault groups were never given but the 15 survivors were ordered to gather ammo and move back to Orliva for more assaults. They refused.

Eventually, some three or four days ago, all the related reporting has ceased: apparently, one - or (and more likely) several - Ukrainian counterattack(s) have pinned the surviving Russians west of Orlivka down, then threw them back across the river. And, they did not try again (at least not for the time being).

West of Tonenke, the Russians launched what may be the largest single assault group in the war. It was reported that 36 tanks and 12 BMPs were in the group but video coverage is still fragmented. Such a large number of vehicles, and a ratio of three tanks for every BMP, suggests Russia was trying to blast their way to their objective using firepower and mass. The attack was stopped early but the trail of destroyed vehicles indicate that they were headed for southern Umanske, a street of 45 houses on the southern side of the small lake, and Yasnobrodivka, a small village that has as many houses as it does letters in its name.

(….all of which is a ‘nice’ illustration about what would happen even if the Russians would ever come to the idea to ‘assault Kupyansk with 500+ tanks’….)

While all this was going on, the Russians advanced 1200 meters in Pervomaiske.

The initial report was that the Russian attack west of Tonenke lost 12 tanks and 8 BMPs. The image shows blue coordinates of Ukrainian losses. In this image of one portion of the battlefield, red coordinates are Russian losses…

https://twitter.com/giK1893/status/1774399776634597518

Partial footage of the attack…

https://twitter.com/IAPonomarenko/status/1774754538756378921

More…

https://twitter.com/NOELreports/status/1774855677824872954

One of the T-90 tanks that was abandoned in the assault is destroyed…

https://twitter.com/giK1893/status/1774205749108805748

As is another…

https://twitter.com/giK1893/status/1773803082867982350

The following is a 7 minute compilation of videos from the massed attack, much of it being video of immobilized and abandoned tanks that are being destroyed by Ukrainian drones. It is extremely helpful that Russian crews that abandon their vehicles leave the hatches open. At 3:53 you see a tank with a barrel that burst and fuel pooling in the crew compartment. At 5:08 you see two Russian tanks with rollers that are used to detonate mines.

A small Ukrainian counter attack west of Tonenka…

https://twitter.com/moklasen/status/1774571773561839809

The Russians that participated in the attack on Seminivka discuss their experiences…

https://twitter.com/wartranslated/status/1774030242467786885

A Russian tank tried to use the wreck of an M1 as cover…

https://twitter.com/giK1893/status/1773664935236522164

A Russian tank and two BMPs fire on Ukrainian positions at Berdychi and survive Ukrainian attacks to withdraw…

https://twitter.com/EjShahid/status/1773088775985328393

Most artillery shells do their damage by pressure waves and fragmentation from nearby detonations. When enough shells are fired, though, one of them will be a direct hit…

https://twitter.com/bayraktar_1love/status/1773996740867133910

The Russians set up a mortar in the coke plant. A DPICM shell destroyed it…

https://twitter.com/Osinttechnical/status/1772037674011939177

Two Russian BMPs were attacked by drones, one of which was defended by a rifleman…

https://twitter.com/giK1893/status/1772776575357820952

A Russian soldier walks away from a drone attack trailing smoke…

https://twitter.com/giK1893/status/1772358405425922122

The Russians try to build up enough troops to launch a large assault. The Ukrainians try to kill them before they can do that…

https://twitter.com/wartranslated/status/1773281043505664508

Russia used ground assault drones at Berdychi. Ukraine answered with airborne drones…

https://twitter.com/RALee85/status/1774123912881754622

Besides providing observation, the coke plant is an elevated platform 4 km from the front line and the Kornet ATGM has a range of 8 km. A Ukrainian drone team engages one such ATGM team…

https://twitter.com/JohnH105/status/1773237927847326013

A 25th Brigade soldier with a US flag on his helmet fires a Javelin that has a range of 2500 meters. The missile travels 140 meters per second and it took 17 seconds to reach the target, so the target was about 2400 meters away. The video ends with an English language phrase of joy…

https://twitter.com/Damien94475559/status/1774765785023730139

This T-80 tank was also hit by a Javelin 500 meters west of Tonenke. It’s viewed by a 53rd Brigade drone looking from the northwest to the southeast, but that is close to the operational boundaries of the 53rd and 25th brigades so the Javelin gunner could have belonged to either organization…

https://twitter.com/bayraktar_1love/status/1773396069243568347

Russia advanced over a kilometer along Pervomaisk…

https://twitter.com/EjShahid/status/1774520183350030368

Soldiers that are grouped together are more likely to be attacked than soldiers that are by themselves…

https://twitter.com/bayraktar_1love/status/1774154782988533969

Ukrainian operators hunting a Russian soldier lose control of their drone, either due to EW or terrain that blocked the signal. The drone landed without exploding until the soldier fixed it…

https://twitter.com/bayraktar_1love/status/1773970965166252468

A semi-GRAPHIC drone view of Russian vehicle and body images on the road to Berdychi…

https://twitter.com/NOELreports/status/1774732115587784813

Sometimes it’s difficult for the geolocators to identify a vehicle…

https://twitter.com/AndrewPerpetua/status/1774898609437266001

When Russia captured Orlivka, they used its ruins as an assembly point to gather enough troops for a massed assault across the small river. If you rotate 180 degrees you can see one of the small lakes that are part of the river system. As scattered Russian troops move towards Orlivka, Ukraine uses drones to attack them, or artillery if the group is big enough. When they reach Orlivka, the Ukrainians use artillery, drones and direct fire to reduce their numbers. This nine minute video here shows an attack by the 3rd Assault Brigade from a couple of weeks ago trying to clear out the Russians. The Ukrainians fired the RPG a few times using ammo they say they recovered from the Russians at Bakhmut and during the Orlivka assault. When an FPV flies into their building at 6:00, the sound is edited to reflect the effects on a human.

A 120 mm mortar round lands just a few meters from a Ukrainian soldier assaulting Orlivka.

***

Surviving Avdiivka

Back on December 14th, four Ukrainian men were on the front line in Avdiivka when they were attacked by the Russians. They beat off the first assault and two of them went downstairs. The Russians attacked again and while the defenders killed some of the Russians, the two upstairs were overwhelmed by the numbers. One pleaded for his life before he was shot. Both men in the basement knew they could not surrender even though one was wounded in the legs and a hand. On the fourth day, the house was blown up and the entrance to the 4m x 4m basement was blocked. After two weeks, the wounded man decided to try and escape before his wounds killed him with infection. He moved some debris and climbed out. Soon after, there was automatic gunfire.

The other soldier stayed in the bunker, even when his food eventually ran out. He reached through the hole the other man made and grabbed handfuls of snow to drink. At times, he heard the Russians upstairs debating whether to attack him or leave him there. Then it was quiet for two days and the sound of fighting died away. On January 23, he heard a voice calling his name. When he emerged, he saw there was only one house left standing and there were dead Russians everywhere. He had been in the bunker for 41 days and his partner had made it to friendly lines after a two day journey. The defenses started collapsing soon after he was rescued and the Russians recaptured the basement, but he made it out alive…https://www.nytimes.com/2024/03/24/world/europe/ukraine-war-avdiivka.html?ugrp=u&unlocked_article_code=1.g00.sjpQ.iDHAu5wTls1Y&smid=url-share

***

(….to be continued…)