Don's Weekly, 4 April 2024: Part 1

Good morning everybody!

A ‘lil’ bit late this week, here’s Don’s review of the last week’s developments in the War in Ukraine - with few additions from me.

In general, it can be concluded that contrary to what was expected by many in the West, after the capture of Avdiivka, the Russians did not make an operational pause to regroup and restore the combat effectiveness of their formations, but attempted to exploit their success and Ukrainian shortages of artillery ammunition and heavy vehicles by the means of continuous assaults.

Through March they kept on assaulting west of Avdiivka. Indeed, they have launched an offensive west of Bakhmut, too: ever since, they are constantly feeding ever additional units into these two efforts.

The result are several paradoxes: although the Russian troops are meanwhile better trained than the mass of those rushed to the frontlines between October 2022 and summer 2023, the quality of their equipment is gradually decreasing. Yes, they still have ‘enough’ T-80s and T-90s, and even more of BMP-1s and MT-LBs, and their artillery remains present in large numbers, regardless what old pieces is it using. However, and while all of this is a ‘far cry’ from what they used at the start of war, it still has to be destroyed if Ukrainians want to stop it. Whatever vehicles and troops are the Russians deploying, their destruction is taking ammunition - which, thanks to abysmal failures of the (collective) ‘West’ of the last few months (indeed: the last two years), remains in far too critical supply. So much so that the essence of defences by Ukrainian Armed Forces (ZSU) of these days can only be summarised with ‘FPV-drones, mortars, and machine guns’. The result is another paradox: the losses of the Armed Forces of the Russian Fedeeration (VSRF) have reached ‘record levels’ in March - but they continued advancing, because the ZSU lacks the ‘volumes of firepower’ necessary to prevent them from doing this. This is a ‘discipline’ in which FPV-drones (still) cannot replace the ‘conventional’ artillery.

…and that is unlikely to change for weeks (if not for months) longer…

***

Kharkiv and Western Luhansk

There’s been a lot of talk of Russia massing 500 tanks in the Kupiansk region for a pending offensive, and it’s normal for observers to repeat the observations of others, but there are indications that a large offensive is not happening anytime soon. Tabaivka was partially taken by Russia at the end of January, and a Russian regiment that was spotted in that tactical assault has now been located in the Terny region. Also, Russia has a pattern of holding troops in this area as a reserve. They train this reserve when they have enough people on the front lines. When there is an urgent need for troops, either because a Ukrainian offensive is threatening to break through or a Russian offensive is running out of manpower, the training is cut short and the troops are moved to where they are needed. The close proximity to Russia also makes it easier to support these reserves logistically.

After heavy losses in local attacks on Synkivka, Russian forces have paused to regroup. Ukraine is using this pause to push Russian forces further back and extend the gray zone. The further away Russian forces are, the more losses they will suffer in their next assault. They killed or chased small Russian forces out of houses and woods 500 meters to the northwest of Synkivka and the survivors either withdrew to the large forest to the north or to treelines a kilometer away. In the forest, Ukrainian drones made night time attacks on Russian personnel to reduce their massing of troops and delay further attacks. It is easier to spot Russian targets at night when there is a strong difference in the temperature of a body and the surrounding environment.

At Terny, Russian attacks continued but they did not gain any ground. There are reports that Ukraine pushed the Russians back but there are no details on how far that might have been nor was there any video evidence. Russian vehicles and infantry are being attacked by drones as far as 10 km behind the front line. These attacks intensify closer to the zero line and, when combined with artillery, they force the Russian infantry to seek cover, which destroys their momentum. Instead of moving forward, they become static targets waiting for drones or an artillery shell. Ukrainians in Terny and Yampolivka must endure artillery and airstrikes while sheltering in defensive positions.

Outside Tabaivka the Russians were kind enough to leave the door open on a BMP they abandoned…

https://twitter.com/giK1893/status/1773478364184990110

Russian losses near Terny increase…

https://twitter.com/StettingerN/status/1772527420584726724

A Russian assault group near Terny…

https://twitter.com/bayraktar_1love/status/1774746122457579976

4 km east of Kreminna, a Russian jammer is destroyed…

https://twitter.com/thisisnotdirk/status/1772745281311773065

A radar from a Russian air defense system was hit by an FPV drone. When a second drone arrives to assess damage, a second radar drove up so it was attacked…

https://twitter.com/bayraktar_1love/status/1773712435565703426

A SP 152mm gun is destroyed…

https://twitter.com/EjShahid/status/1773314712777658423

Ukrainians try to use a fire extinguisher after a radar and S-300 launcher is hit…

https://twitter.com/EjShahid/status/1774496075803402689

If humans make questionable decisions in war then it makes sense that animals might, as well…

https://twitter.com/MrFukkew/status/1772727392668193188

***

Bakhmut

Russian air, artillery and drone strikes continue to be heavy between Bohdanivka and the canal district to support Russia’s attempt to control the forest between the two areas. The attacks on Bohdanivka and Ivanivske were conducted entirely with dismounted infantry and the western half of Ivanivske is a gray zone. Russia suffered heavy casualties in these attacks, but as usually: in grand total, these do not matter - whether to Putin or to the MOD in Moscow and thus the assaults are continued. Ukrainian losses under the heavy bombardments are unknown, but even when nobody is wounded by fragmentation: concussions are frequent.

Russian logistical movement is only conducted at night and Ukrainian drones with night vision capabilities have been attacking the trucks on the roads. This slows down Russia’s ability to launch attacks but does not stop it. Not a lot of territory has changed hands last week, but the usual pattern of degrading Ukrainian defensive positions through constant bombardment continues. When the defenses are too dangerous for Ukraine to occupy it will become a gray zone or fall under Russian control.

Russians in Kurdiumivka are hunted by drones...

https://twitter.com/giK1893/status/1772756470104207670

A Ukrainian drone drops a TM-62 mine which is not aerodynamic, as seen by its descent, but it does have 7.5 kg of explosives…

https://twitter.com/giK1893/status/1774552893577626049

Russian drones attack Ukrainian positions in Bohdanivka…

https://twitter.com/EjShahid/status/1773018430817320983

A Russian assault group of six vehicles was stopped…

https://twitter.com/bayraktar_1love/status/1774704161180750336

A Russian tank is destroyed near Klishchiivka…

https://twitter.com/giK1893/status/1774142272231162351

Russia is using anything that launches a missile, including this anti-submarine missile launcher that was destroyed on the eastern outskirts of Bakhmut…

https://twitter.com/bayraktar_1love/status/1773282037400539160

Because of private donations, the 92nd Brigade has thermal imaging drones…

https://twitter.com/Teoyaomiquu/status/1774879813490163852

A Russian medical team on an ATV has to navigate drone and indirect fire attacks…

https://twitter.com/RALee85/status/1774904409572376686

***

Horlivka

6 km north of Horlivka, a Russian air defense vehicle is hit inside a warehouse…

https://twitter.com/giK1893/status/1773341933127008662

***

(…to be continued…)