Don's Weekly, 31 December 2024: Part 3
by Donald Hill
(…continued from Part 2…)
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Unknown location
Russian units are complaining that they are being contacted by people that present themselves as volunteers. These volunteers arrange a time and place to meet and provide the unit with humanitarian aid equipment. Then they are hit with HIMARS/MLRS rockets. A report says that after the evacuation team arrived they were attacked by drones.
A golf cart unloads infantry after it runs over an anti-personnel mine. Then it runs over an anti-tank mine designed to immobilize armored vehicles.
A ground drone recovers a downed aerial drone.
A Ukrainian sniper engaging a target 2,069 meters away.
Russian drones engage Ukrainian drones by ramming. Here’s 5 minutes of them ramming Ukrainian Vampire drones. A Ukrainian drone eliminates a Russian drone with a pair of shotguns that seem to work quite well.
A Leopard-1 fights the mud. Civilian logistical vehicles have even less of a chance to defeat the mud. A crew unloads the trailer behind their ATV.
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Russia
Russia’s official numbers show that inflation is 9.7%, food inflation 11.4%, fruit and vegetable inflation is 25.74%. Individual items with high prices are potatoes (90%), onions (46%), cabbage (42%), beets (32%) and cucumbers (22%). A report of 740 rubles for a kilogram of cucumbers.
The Central Bank did not raise interest rates, but they will lift that cap restrictions on consumer loans that Russian banks can charge their customers. This means the commercial banks can raise interest rates and the loans for customers will be more expensive.
The mayor of Moscow said they repurposed a hospital built for Covid patients to handle the needs of the 600,000 wounded from the special operations, providing anything from artificial limbs to psychological treatment.
The Russian cargo ship Sparta briefly broke down before the main fuel pipe to the engine was repaired. The ship was removing military equipment from Syria. The new government in Syria is asking Russia to leave by February 20th in hopes of lifting international sanctions.
Two electric cables between Finland and Estonia were damaged and the most likely cause was the Eagle S, listed as - surprise, surprise - a United Arab Emirates-owned ship. It will take several months to repair them. Later reports said that four internet lines were also broken or damaged. Flagged in the Cook Islands and having departed from St. Petersburg, it had all the characteristics of Russia’s shadow fleet that transports oil to evade sanctions. In addition to earning money for the war effort, it was part of Russia’s hybrid war against the West. A Finnish coast guard crew seized the cargo and the ship was moved to Porvoo for an investigation on the evasion of sanctions and the destruction of the cables.
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While inspecting the ship, they found high-tech equipment used to monitor NATO naval ships and aircraft operated by an individual that was not a sailor. The keyboards had Russian and Turkish lettering and the report says that Russians, Turks and Indians were operating the equipment. Officers that questioned the situation were replaced and the crew was threatened. Similar equipment is supposedly on another ship owned by the same company, the Swiftsea Rider.
In October 2023, the New Polar Bear, a Chinese ship, damaged a gas pipeline and telecommunications cable between Finland and Estonia. Despite requests, the ship did not stop. The Chinese eventually admitted the ship was responsible but said it was an accident. In September 2024, Putin said that lifting long range weapon restrictions would mean that Russia would be at war with NATO countries. On November 17, the US lifted restrictions. The same day, a telecommunications cable between Sweden and Lithuania was cut. The next day, a telecommunications cable between Finland and Germany was cut in Swedish waters. The Yi Peng 3, a Chinese bulk carrier with a reported Russian captain, was in the location of the damage and had a damaged anchor, sat in Danish waters for a month and allowed investigators on board but would not allow Swedish prosecutors on board or return to Swedish waters. There is evidence it acted under instructions from Russian intelligence and has since sailed away. And then there is the destruction of four cables but the shadow fleet ship Eagle S. There are various interpretations of international sea law but the NATO Secretary General said they will enhance their military presence in the Baltic Sea.
An Azerbaijani commercial jet (an EMBRAER 190 airliner) was approaching Grozny when an air raid alert was initiated because of Ukrainian drones, at least one of which was shot down by a Pantsir-S1 air defense system. The first drone was engaged at 8:30. The commercial jet was denied permission to land at Grozny several times and decided to divert to Baku. Soon after, they lost their GPS, maybe as a function of jamming because of the drone attacks. At 8:16 they report a loss of control to what they think is a bird strike and they request directions to the closest airport. At 8:20 they start to lose control of their plane. At 8:23 they report the loss of hydraulics. The jet crashed at 8:28. There was evidence of damage throughout the plane before the plane crashed. 32 of 67 on board survived. While his authorities first rushed to ban any kind of reportinga bout the Azeri jet being shot down by the Russian armed forces, Putin meanwhile apologized for the ‘crash’ and an investigation was opened to determine the cause.
As reported previously, the largest refinery in southern Russia was shut down for the third time this year after its main processing unit was hit by drones. The previous attacks in March and June reduced its capacity from 2.7 million tons in January to October, compared to 4.8 million tons for 2023. Drone attacks and repair issues due to sanctions reduced refinery output by 13% in 2024.
A drone storage and repair facility in Oryol was hit by Storm Shadows.
65 drone fuselages and components for 400 Shahed drones were destroyed in a drone attack in the Alabuga special economic zone in Tartarstan. The factory produced 2,738 drones in 2023. After increasing the size of the factory by 55%, they produced 5,760 from January-September 2024 . Cheaper decoy drones account for a lot of the increase. If 150 drones are launched in an attack, 20 to 30 might have warheads. Part of the workforce is Russian students as young as 15 and African immigrants who work long hours and face tough punishments as they assemble parts imported from China.
An ammo depot at a training ground in Rostov was hit.
Freight cars at a rail station near Moscow blew up.
A political office in Arkhangelsk and a gas station was firebombed. A pensioner set off fireworks in a bank, and another was set on fire and one arsonist wasn’t quite sure how fuel and fumes worked. An arrest after an attempt of arson at a bank and an ATM. A report of 10 arsons/pyrotechnic explosions at banks in 24 hours. According to the FSB, Ukraine revived an operation in which scammers pose as bank employees or law enforcement and convince victims to transfer money. The victims are then told that if the conduct arson attacks they can recover their money. From December 13-22, 34 attacks were committed, targeting banks, police cars, post offices and government service offices. There are more videos of such arson than the 34 attacks posted so it’s possible that some of these events had nothing to do with the scam.
Kotelny Island is 200 km north of the Siberian land mass and is home to the Temp (Pace) airbase. Here is a video of a military parade on May 9, 2015. With the war in Ukraine still fresh, the last vehicle has graffiti that says, “Alaska, ask Crimea how to return home!” In May, the average daily temperature is -8°C (16°F). Here was this year’s May 9th parade when life was still good. There is a report that their helicopters cannot fly, food isn’t being delivered, and the dead are not being removed from the island. Their public complaint caused them to be noticed, and they will now be sent to Ukraine as soon as transportation can be arranged.
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(…to be concluded in the Part 4…)
Thx. Regarding those stationed up north, I think they are pretty safe. Will be hard to find transportation. Of course this might be the case for other things as well, like supplies…
thx!