Don's Weekly, 31 December 2024: Part 4

by Donald Hill

(…continued from Part 3…)

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Ukraine

On Christmas eve in Kryvyi Rih one person was killed and 11 wounded after a four-story apartment complex was hit and the street was showered with debris.

Now that - with 1 January 2025 - Russia gas will no longer be flowing the Ukrainian pipelines, the country’s 38,600-kilometres-long network of pipes, storage facilities and power sources are at risk of Russian attacks.

A series of time-lapse maps of territorial control based on the DeepState maps.

Christmas in Kharkiv. There were 11 explosions in 27 minutes. Unlike Kyiv, there’s little time to reach a shelter in Kharkiv, but some spent their Christmas morning at the metro. A pair of videos: In the first, Iran wishes Ukraine a Merry Christmas. In the second, a Shahed drone explodes at a playground on Christmas Eve.

A Marine fighting in Kursk reports that he is spending two weeks at home for his first Christmas and second vacation since 2022. Here’s a three minute video of various soldiers operating in the winter weather.

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Diplomacy

Trump’s pick for special representative to Ukraine said, “Large-scale missile and drone attacks on the day of the Lord’s birth is wrong.”

The Biden administration is considering sanctions on the ships carrying Russia oil illegally and revoking the license that enables banks to process Russian energy transactions. They haven’t done so earlier because of the concern about gas prices rising. Since supplies are projected to be higher than demand next year, making it more difficult for Russian oil to reach the markets may not significantly raise gas prices.

South Korea says that 100 North Koreans were killed and another 1,000 were wounded. Ukraine believes that 200 have been killed and a little more than that wounded. North Korean wounded seem to be driven to the bigger hospitals in Kursk rather than the closer village hospitals used by the Russian wounded. About 11,000 troops have been sent so far and they may send a total of 100,000 troops over time. North Korea has a population of 25 million people and an army of one million people, a size that is difficult to maintain with its small economy.

South Korea impeached its president over two weeks ago because of his use of martial law. His case will be decided by the Constitutional Court, which will either uphold the impeachment or restore him back to power. Six of the nine judges are needed to uphold the impeachment. There are three vacancies and the interim president refuses to fill those vacancies so the National Assembly impeached him, as well. Even though the North Korean alliance with Russia is a threat to South Korea’s national security, its focus is likely to remain on domestic issues.

The US believes that North Korea offered their troops to Putin for future assistance and diplomatic support.

Many Republicans in congress have concerns about spending, corruption in Ukraine and the direction of the war. A respected Republican political operative that has been solving Ukrainian issues with his international connections is also rallying support for Ukraine among the Republican skeptics. One of his selling points is that of the Pentagon’s $750 billion budget, 15% of that money has helped turn the second most powerful army in the world to the second most powerful army in Ukraine, and not a single American soldier was killed.

Day 27 and day 28 of the protest in Georgia and the thugs were out. Some protestors were arrested at random. December 29 is the inauguration day for the president appointed by the regime-dominated electoral college. The current President called his appointment illegitimate and says she will not leave office. She said that if an agreement on new parliamentary elections isn’t reached by December 29th then the new elections will be achieved through the overthrow of the regime. On December 29th, she lost her immunity and her supporters said they will physically defend her. When the pro-Russian former football/soccer player was elected, many gave him a red card. He is the first president to be elected by the electoral college and not the voters.

Slovakia’s prime minister Fico went to Moscow and said Putin was “wrongly demonised” by the West. He joins Hungary’s Orban and Austria’s Nehammer as the only EU leaders to travel to Moscow since 2022. Supposedly, the meeting was about securing gas for Slovakia. The Czech Foreign Minister said they secured enemy independence from Russia and was thinking of all the Ukrainians who could not spend Christmas with their loved ones because of Putin. Zelensky said Fico refused compensation for the lost profit during the transition period and is interested in the profits in Russian oil and gas totalling $1 billion. "We are losing people as a result of the war that Putin started, and we believe that such [financial] assistance to Putin is immoral," said Zelensky. Thousands in Slovakia protested Fico’s trip. After the protest, the crowd chanted "Enough Fico" and "Glory to Ukraine".

Orban says the last four years have been the most difficult for him since he took power, and he believes, "The war will end in 2025. It will either end through peaceful negotiations or the destruction of one of the warring parties."

Austria’s far-right political party FPÖ party signed yet another (actually: ‘renewed’) cooperation pact with Russia’s ruling party. The party calls for the removal of sanctions against Russia. In September this year, after campaigning with clearly anti-Ukraine and anti-immigration posters, FPÖ came out first, winning 28.85% of the vote (voter turnout was at 77.68%, and this was the first time a far-right party won the most seats in the Austrian parliament since 1945).

Italy’s right-wing prime minister Meloni said, "We have to understand the [Russian] threat is much wider than we imagine."

Ukraine will cut off the flow of Russian gas through its country on January 1st and some of that gas went to Transnistria, which is part of Moldova but is occupied by Russian troops. Russia could transport the gas through Turkey but they say they won’t do that because Transnistria hasn’t paid its bills. Moldova denies Russia’s claim, saying it was invalidated by an international audit.

Fico threatened to halt electricity supplies to Ukraine but they can receive enough electricity from other nations.

The pope has called for peace and criticizes arms deliveries to Ukraine, calling it hypocritical. He talks about a lack of personal ethics and has yet to condemn Russia’s invasion.

Allied support of Ukraine’s economy is just as important as the collapse of the Russian economy. The UK and Japan sent $1 billion in social and humanitarian aid. Almost all of Ukraine’s taxes are spent on the war effort. Ukraine should receive $38 billion in 2025 to cover the budget deficit.

The effort to defeat imperialism that endangers even their own peace is inconvenient for many of Ukraine’s allies.

Syrians ask Ukrainians to not give up so they can also be free of Russians - but, why should anybody in ‘the West’, or in Ukraine care about such sentiments between ‘Syrian Jihadists’…?

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Equipment

60% of Russia’s artillery and mortar shells and 30% of their ballistic missiles come from North Korea.

Ukraine says Russia can produce about 135 Kalibr/Kh-101/Iskander missiles per month and have more than 1430 in reserve.

Russia is running out of armored vehicles so they’ve turned to golf carts, motorcycles and, increasingly, civilian cars to achieve some sort of speed across the open ground. Their assaults have a higher chance of success if they move quickly and give Ukraine less time to react with the movement of their own troops or with drones and other defensive fires. The reason why Ukraine is increasingly using drones to drop mines is to remove that mobility and give their forces more time to react to assaults. Even motorcycles lying unused on the ground are attacked by drone bombs or FPVs to prevent them from being used again. Speed, and denying speed, is important.

The British army successfully tested a Radio Frequency Directed Energy Weapon (RFDEW). It can disrupt or damage electronic components in drones up to 1 km away. The vehicle is a testbed and is not ready for production.

A German-developed drone can move at 300 kph as far as 20 km. Designed to intercept other drones, they are collaborating with Ukrainian developers in order to learn from each other.

Portugal donated six inoperable helicopters and Ukraine restored at least one of them to a working condition.

The US is spending $253 million to build engines and increase the production of Harpoon, Joint Air-to-Surface Standoff Missiles (JASSM), Long Range Anti-Ship Missiles (LRASM), Tomahawk, and other precision strike weapons. These engines had been the biggest obstacle to increasing production. Some of those weapons are earmarked for Ukraine.

Two Polish F-35A fighters arrived at a National Guard base in Arkansas for training. The six months training for Ukrainian pilots and mechanics on Mirage 2000’s has ended.

Latvia sent 612 vehicles confiscated from drunk drivers to Ukraine. They were valued at €2.25 million. The prime minister said, “100% of Latvian society supports Ukraine – even those who drive drunk.”

Organization and Leadership

The Ukrainian army has a wide spectrum of capabilities ranging from excellent to incompetent. It all depends on the individual leader. Generally speaking, if an individual leader is competent, then the units subordinate to that leader eventually become competent.

In this war, there are no operational or strategic secrets. Both sides know where each other’s units are. But there can be a misinterpretation of the known facts which functions as a surprise.

The Ukrainian army doesn’t spend enough time interpreting the known facts to determine the enemy’s likely courses of actions, and it does not spend enough time developing plans to counter those actions. Such planning can take the form of physical defenses that are competently built and placed, or making sure units are properly supported with resources, (including personnel), and with supporting units on the flanks and in reserve. It is possible they do not have the capacity to make such assessments, or it is possible that they are too focused on micromanaging that they cannot see the big picture. But then, micromanagement is itself a form of incompetence.

The Ukrainian army spends too much time reacting, and then its reactions are too late. It is in a constant state of emergency. Its belated actions, such as detaching units from a hundred kilometers away to throw in front of a gaping hole in the lines, or throwing trained support units to the front line as untrained infantry, simply sets the conditions for future emergencies. A successful army is an army of systems. Ad hoc actions should be an exception but for the Ukrainian army it is the norm.

Generally speaking, if an individual leader is competent, then the units subordinate to that leader eventually become competent. Ukraine needs a competent leader at the highest level.

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Yuri Butusov wrote an article about Ukraine’s organization and leadership. What he says has been said before - indeed, has been said on this blog for most of this year already - and what he says is true. In turn, the Zelensky admin then engaged him as a sort of an intermediary for its negotiations with different online platforms in Ukraine, that are growingly critical of the Zelensky government’s, and Syrsky & Buddies’ conduct of the war…

…one is left to hope, Zelensky & Co KG GesmbH AG SPA might realise, their enemies are the Russians, not critics at home in Ukraine…