Don's Weekly, 30 June 2025: Part 2

by Donald Hill

(…continued from Part 1…)

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Pokrovsk

This is just one video of some of the sixty airstrikes in the area between Shakhove and Popiv Yar. The airstrikes were on the routes that Ukraine took to supply and reinforce that sector, and Russian advances were limited to that location.

The areas shaded in red, some of them overlapping, is where the known Russian airstrikes took place.

Insulated ponchos block the thermal radiation of the body. If the ground is warmer than the poncho, though, the temperature differential still stands out, even more so in an open field.That was their first mistake. The second mistake they made was lying down so close together that they’re all in the blast zone of a single grenade. The third mistake they made was invading Ukraine. The 59th Brigade just transitioned from a motorized to an assault brigade, joining the 3rd, 5th and 9rd Brigades in having that status. They made sure the Russians wouldn’t make those mistakes again.

Depending on the terrain, tanglefoot wire can be difficult to see if you’re not paying attention. One soldier on the way to Udachne became stuck in it and another soldier catches up to him, making a group target for a drone bomb

The 3rd Special Purpose Regiment operates in the Donetsk Oblast. In the first two months of the war they attacked Russian rear areas. When they received Javelins and NLAWs for the first time their training consisted of watching videos and then they would use them in battle. When they captured weapons, such as mortars, they’d study them for about two days and use them on missions. Like everyone else, they became proficient with the constantly changing capabilities of drones. Whenever they can, they use drones instead of humans. But when they need a prisoner, that becomes a ground operation.

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Komar

DeepState reports that units in this area are submitting false reports about holding a village or position when they are not. Incomplete or incorrect information certainly makes it more difficult to conduct a proper defense. The responsibility lies not just with the front line units that are lying, but with their superiors, who

a) should not have created the system of lying in reports, first and foremost, and

b) should be aware of lies within a couple of days, through regular tours to inspect different units and other means of gathering information.

In Ukraine, in the ZSU, however, it was nobody less than the General of Fantastic News who has created this system of lies. He has grown it through deploying too many small units into the same sector, and then losing the ability to command and control - which is no surprise because too many disparate battalions are increasing the difficulties of command and control. And, his buddies in the General Staff are bolstering Syrsky’s failures.

For everybody’s orientation: the units marked in dark blue belong to the XX Corps, ZSU. The 17th Heavy Mechanized Brigade is also part of the XX Corps, but: it’s still in the Pokrovsk sector. The light blue large units are brigades unrelated to the XX Corps. Smaller squares are marking disparate battalions from a miscellany of other brigades… This is how Syrsky is commanding this battle (and not only this one: he’s commanding this way already since 24 February 2022, but especialyl since Slovyansk and then Bakhmut), and what is nowadays on Drapaty to sort out, and that every single day a new…

A drone hits a North Korean rocket launcher in Prechystivka, 25 km from the front lines. A rocket is triggered and flies through the cab of the vehicle and the flame from the engine flashes through the cab. Two crew members tumble out alive. It is unknown how far away they were when the entire vehicle exploded.

After a heavy bombardment and airstrikes, Russian infantry secured the village of Yalta. And after a heavy bombardment, Russian infantry secured the village of Shevchenko. A camouflaged Ukrainian position in Myrne is hit and the rest of the village is bombarded. Russian rockets bombard the fields 4 km southwest of Komar.

A bridge layer was destroyed by the Mokri Yaly river near Vesele. A HUMMWV was destroyed near Shevchenko.

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Zaporizhzhia

The June 22nd attack on a Russian fuel train involved the Khortytsia Operational Strategic Group (OSU), the Zaporizhzhia Tactical Group, the State Special Communications Service’s Next Group, the Security Service’s Alpha unit, the 65th Brigade and the Defense Intelligence’s Kabul 9 unit. They released a video of the attack. Here’s another video from a reconnaissance drone.

Based on just the videos that were meanwhile released through the social media Stepnohirsk was bombarded by at least nine air strikes and Kamianske was hit by at least 36 rockets.

Three different angles of a Ukrainian drone being destroyed by the rail line in Tokmak.

A two story building in Nesterianka is reduced to a single story by a Ukrainian airstrike. Malynivka is shelled by the Russians.

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Kherson

Ukraine still has a presence in Dachi on the southern end of the Antonivka bridge.

In the 70s and 80s, trees were planted to prevent the Oleshky Sands from spreading. The Russians used the trees near Novaya Mayachka as an organizational site 15 km from the Dnieper river. Last week the Ukrainian air force bombed it. Russian targets on the left bank were also attacked.

KABs have a range of about 70 km. The Grom-E1 is a glide bomb with an engine. It has a 315 kg warhead with a range of 120 km if dropped at an altitude of 12 km and a range of 35 km if dropped at an altitude of 5 km. Grom’s have been used before but one was shot down near Dnipro, gliding over 100 km for the first time.

A Russian boat was destroyed off the west coast of Kherson. One of the drones used in the attack was the Turkish-built TB-2 Bayraktar. The TB-2 was important in the opening months of the war for dropping munitions and spotting targets for artillery fire and inspired a song. When defensive lines were formed Russian air defenses started shooting them down and Ukraine lost 26 of them in 2022-23. At $5 million each they were too expensive to replace, especially since cheaper drones were developed to perform the same functions. They were withdrawn from front line service and only used in areas where they knew it was safe from air defenses. The fact that they were used in an operation in Kherson indicates Russian air defenses were absent.

A 72-minute documentary of Kherson citizens describing the invasion and the occupation that smelled of burnt skin and hair. They waited in long lines for bread, risking their lives for food because of the checkpoints and patrols that were arresting people, interrogating, torturing and killing them. Children were evacuated, they were confiscated for health improvement and sent to Russia, and they were smuggled to safety. Kherson became part of Russia, by proclamation, but was liberated soon after. The Russians destroyed and stole what they could before they left. A week after liberation, the Russians started shelling indiscriminately. Aerial bombs followed. The Russians destroyed the Kakhovka dam and flooded the land. Attempts to rescue flood victims on the left bank were met with Russian gunfire. They supplied some people with water by drones. Then the Russians started stalking people with drones. The human safari happens every day. Some day, the left bank will be liberated and they will have peace.

In the meantime, the human safari continues.

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Mykolaiv

For the fifth time since March, a Ukrainian training center was hit, this time by a drone. Only one person was wounded since the site was following safety protocols.

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Crimea

Four radars and a launcher - all part of a S-400 air defense system of the Russian Air-Space Force (VKS) - were destroyed during the same Ukrainian strike (it’s always funny to read resulting commentary in India, where ‘nothing of this kind can happen: Indian S-400s are so much better…and then they’re going to get the Russian S-500s as next, which are even better….)

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Black Sea

Junior naval officers had been reportedly sabotaging ships and subs to prevent them from conducting operations. Now there is evidence that senior officers may be skimming money off the continual repairs and are repairing ships that should be decommissioned.

After Russian jets and helicopters were shot down by naval drones, Russia started engaging the naval drones with Lancet and Kh-31 missiles.

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Baltic Sea

A shadow fleet tanker that was escorted by a Russian warship in the Mediterranean and English strait sailed through the Baltic Sea unchallenged and into Russian waters.

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Occupied Territories

The Peklo jet drone has been used in the Luhansk region. It has a range of 700 km and can fly 700 kph.

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Unknown Location

Somewhere in the south, Ukrainian drones detected movement of what they say is a drone team, a target that is worth an airstrike.

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Russia

As all of NATO (except Spain) pledge to increase their defense spending to 5%, Russia is spending 7.2% of its GDP on the military. Putin admitted that defense spending led to inflation and Russia’s GDP growth will be slower this year. He also said Russia will reduce defense spending for the next three years. The leader of Russia’s Central Bank said the country ran out of spare labor, industrial capacity is idle and two-thirds of the reserve currency has been spent. Russia’s largest steel and mining company warned of possible large-scale bankruptcies due to high interest rates and falling demand. The interest rates are high to fight inflation but they make it difficult to take out loans and remain profitable.

A company that built microelectronics is on the verge of bankruptcy and stopped production operations. The price of the components is set by the military and the company cannot refuse to produce at those prices or they would be sanctioned by the government. The fate of the company is uncertain.

With the deescalation of the attacks on Iran, the price of Russian oil dropped steadily last week. OPEC continues to produce high volumes of oil.

Ukraine says that between January and May, Ukrainian strikes caused $1.3 billion in damages to Russian industrial facilities and infrastructure and $9.5 billion in disruption to industrial activities, such as oil refining, fuel and lubricants that can be sold, and energy and transport support that sustains the economy. Syrsky says the ratio of the cost of the attacks to the cost of the damage is 1:15.

Missile fuel and other fuel supplies were hit in Bryansk. A storage and repair site for artillery was also hit. While the damage is unknown, a black column of smoke filled the air.

NASA FIRMS satellite service show that some of the 32 petroleum tanks were burning 70 km east of Luhansk on the Russian side of the border. These tanks were also attacked in August (twice) and November 2024.

The Atlant-Aero plant in Taganrog produces Orion drones, EW systems and digital integration for FPV drones. Drones set it on fire.

The unrest in Ingushetia continues with an explosion at a police college. 370 km east of Moscow there was ethnic unrest.

Russia received two more Su-35s, the third such delivery in 2025. 50 km west of Volgograd, Russians were preparing for flight operations at Marynovka airbase when Ukrainian drones arrived, hitting four Su-34s and some of the infrastructure. While long-ranged drone attacks on static buildings have been common, engaging parked aircraft requires intelligence on their specific location (with imagery or local observation) and a belief based on behaviors that they will still be at that location while the drones fly 4-6 hours to attack them.

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(…to be continued…)