Don's Weekly, 3 February 2025: Part 4 (Ukraine & Equipment)

by Donald Hill

(…continued from Part 3…)

***

Ukraine

OSG Khortytsia is responsible for the territory from Kharkiv to Velyka Novosilka. Zelensky appointed Drapaty to take command of the Operational Strategic Group. He will also retain his role as commander of all the ground forces. That is a lot of details and responsibilities for one individual to manage. Hopefully, he can make some organizational changes throughout the command.

Servicemen in the Air Force are still being transferred to the infantry. It started with recently mobilized personnel but now includes specialists with years of experience. Many will be from units that shoot down Shahed drones. Some infantry battalions have 18-19% strength so support units with 80-90% strength are being transferred to the frontline. In the past, brigade commanders that transferred artillery and other support troops to the front lines without training have been removed from command. DeepState says Air Force personnel have been transferred to Ground Forces since mid-2023 and often only receive 3-5 days training.

Zelensky ordered the formation of the 158th, 159th, 160th and 162nd brigades be halted and the new troops be sent to existing units instead. The 156th Brigade continued its formation and training in Europe because it was further along in its formation.

As Russian drone production increased, primarily at Alabuga, the number of drone attacks increased. Many drone components are coming from China. There were concerns that Russia would also be able to develop AI that would make it easier to avoid Ukrainian defenses and more accurately attack targets. They haven’t been able to do so yet, but they are using computer vision algorithms that can match video images to pre-loaded terrain maps. This means they don’t have to use GPS, which can be jammed or spoofed to believe it is somewhere else than its actual location.

A large number of Russian drones are still being suppressed with electronic warfare, which means there are a large number of drones which aren’t navigating by pre-loaded terrain maps. The number of suppressions means that the number of successful Russian attacks have stayed fairly steady despite the increased number of drones being used. Still, Russia signed individual AI-development agreements with Iran and China, and another AI-development agreement with all the BRICS nations. If the AI is developed, and Russia receives the components to support on-board AI, the threat from Shahed drones will increase significantly.

The number of Russian drone attacks has dramatically increased in the last six months.

The last eight months of Russian drone attacks

Russian attacks in Odesa hit the historic concert hall and a hotel. A missile hit an apartment building in Poltava. The toll keeps rising but it’s at least 15 killed and 22 wounded.

***

Diplomacy

Fresh off yet another ‘election victory’, Lukashenko installed dragon’s teeth on Belarus’ border with Ukraine - for the ‘case Ukraine decided to invade’, of course.

After a fibre optic cable between Sweden and Latvia was damaged, the Latvian navy identified three ships that were in the area at the time of the damage. One ship had been drifting in the area for a week and a visual inspection showed nothing unusual. Another was the LNG tanker Pskov sailing from Turkey to Russia but no damage or suspicious behavior on board was observed.

The third ship was the Maltese-flagged, Bulgarian-run and Chinese-owned Vezhen, which had been moving at a steady pace before coming to a near stop for ten minutes at the site of the damage. It had been travelling from Russia to Denmark and it’s anchor showed signs of damage. Since the damaged site was in Swedish waters, the Swedish Coast Guard intercepted the ship and escorted it to Karlskrona and an investigation was opened. A Bulgarian spokesman denied any intentional damage and blamed bad weather for dragging its anchor. The ship visited Russia twice in the last 12 months and visited Canada 48 times in the last two years. Last December, Canadian authorities inspected it and noted only that there was inadequate safety fencing around dangerous machinery and that the crew’s contract papers were unclear.

Grey and Dark Fleet ships are rarely inspected and are often uninsured and unsafe. Since international law provides little grounds to stop ships that are believed to be evading sanctions or conducting hybrid warfare, ships that do not provide proof of insurance or appear unsafe and a threat to the environment will now be the grounds for boarding and detainment.

On January 28, Russia said it supported the changes in Syria and "reiterated its unwavering support for the unity, territorial integrity, and sovereignty of the Syrian Arab Republic, along with its readiness to extend essential assistance to the Syrian people in their post-crisis national recovery.” For its part, Syria is willing to consider Russian bases remaining in their country if Russia provides reparations focusing on compensation, reconstruction and recovery. Syria insists that Russia must also address past mistakes, respect the will of the Syrian people and serve their interests. Assad must also be returned to Syria.

***

Equipment

Russian total equipment loss rate has been consistent but the composition of what has been destroyed is changing. Their tank and artillery losses have been reduced since last summer and their APC losses are lower as well. This is a reflection of their diminishing numbers of armored vehicles. As a result, unarmored vehicles represent a larger percentage of Russian losses, particularly when they hit anti-tank mines.

The loss of Russian unarmored vehicles is increasing in total numbers (as noted in the image above) and as a percentage of total losses (indicated in the image below). They are increasingly being used in assaults and their losses are having an impact on logistics. One Russian report says that soldiers have to walk 10-35 km per day, depending on the task, because of the threat of drones and the impact it has on vehicles.

A Russian report says Ukrainian drones are dropping audio and visual sensors from drones that send data to Ukrainian forces.

A Patriot battery with 90 PAC-2 missiles have been sent from Israel to Ukraine.

All of Ukraine’s Black Hawk helicopters support special operations.

Denmark sent more equipment to Ukraine, including some mystery 2S1 122 mm self-propelled howitzers that they’re never used.

(As far as not mobilised to serve as infantry) Ukrainian teams are developing a drone that fires rockets.

The Steel Hornets were working on airburst canister ammo that wouldn’t destroy the drone at least a year ago.

Ukraine has been using E300 and A22 drones in Russia for a while. A kamikaze version was used in the attack on the Alabuga drone factory 1200 km away last April. Last week a drone was equipped to drop a FAB-250M-54 bomb calibre 250kg and two 15kg mortar rounds calibre 120mm on an oil pumping station less than a hundred kilometers from the border in Bryansk. It’s not known if the drone successfully returned. They were also reportedly used to attack the oil depot at Engels 700 km away in early January.