Don's Weekly, 29 September 2025: Part 3 (Russia & Ukraine)

by Donald Hill (with commentary by Tom Cooper)

(…continued from Part 2…)

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Russia

Naval and aerial drones attacked Novorossiysk, and two oil terminals suspended tanker loadings.

Now, this might appear as ‘nothing’ to many. ‘Meh, what’s the point of attacking oil(-loading) terminals?

Me (Tom) thinks it is far more than is catching the eye. Thus, let me add some commentary at this point: striking loading terminals - and especially: striking loading jetties on such terminals - is far more effective than sinking tankers. Possibly, more effective than striking refineries, too.

Essentially: it’s like striking nerve centres in a nerve system.

Should there be any doubts: ask the Iranians and Iraqis about their related experiences from the 1980s (and yes: do so, don’t guess their experiences would be ‘irrelevant’, especially not if you feel ‘offended, because some clueless non-academic is comparing your holy homeland with “some camel-riders there in the Middle East”’). Repairing terminals, repairing jetties in particular, is not only requiring lots of know-how and skilled work-force, but specialised machinery and specialised spare parts - the mass of which Russia has to import. And then import from ‘the West’.

Arguably, back in the 1980s, the Iranians have had a lot of both (plus an industry capable of manufacturing a lots of spares at home): thus, usually, it took them between 2-3 days and 2-3 months to repair - for example - pipelines leading to their principal oil exporting terminal at the Khark island, or (the longer the war went on) terminals and jetties at Khark but also further south in the Persian Gulf. Nevertheless, the cumulative effect of Iraqi air strikes on such targets was felt: out of, for example, 20 jetties at the Sea Island Terminal as of 1980, only some 2-3 were still operational by the end of the war (actually: some haven’t been repaired until this very day). If the Iraqis ever came really close to cutting off the Iranian oil exports, then by striking such jetties.

Arguably, related operations by the Iraqi air force back then were so complex, and so costly, that Saddam Hussein was regularly ‘losing nerves’ and concluding them for ‘pointless’. As a true micromanager as he was he would then regularly discontinue such strikes, and order yet additional air strikes on civilian population of Iran, or similar, symbolic targets - in turn offering the Iranians plenty of opportunities to repair.

Make no mistake: getting Ukrainian unmanned surface vehicles (‘drones’) inside the ports like Novorossiyk, and then also striking such terminals (i.e. jetties in them), is not less complex than what the Iraqis were doing to the Iranians on the Khark Island back in 1984-1987. The only difference is that Ukraine is not losing precious pilots, nor Mirage or Sukhoi fighter bombers in the process.

One thus must hope there’s no micromanager in Kyiv ‘losing nerves’ over the ‘minimal effectiveness’ of such operations, and ordering attacks somewhere else instead…

Erm…How, Ukraine/ZSU is/are commanded by, essentially, three micromanagers, knowing everything better, you say…?

Hkhm… better I stop here - before comparing any of saint heroes in Kyiv with Saddam..

…back to Don…

The office of the Caspian Pipeline Consortium was damaged and two people were killed. Seven buildings and 20 cars were damaged. The oil terminal of the Tuapse refinery was hit while the tourists watched. A naval drone was spotted in Sochi, too. Russia captured a Ukrainian naval drone in Tuapse that was carrying fiber optic drones.

The theme for refineries is “again”. The Salavat refinery was hit again. The Astrakhan refinery suspended operations after an attack. Two oil pumping stations in Volgograd were hit while the refinery was hit again. The Afipsky refinery was hit again. The Kyubyshev refinery in Samara was hit again.

The Kanevskaya railway substation was hit.

Long lines for gas seems to be the norm in St. Petersburg. Moscow is running out of different grades of gasoline. Here is a video that tracks the shortages of gas throughout Russia.

Russian aviation safety has been compromised by sanctions and they say planes may crash without spare parts. It is difficult to order spare parts through indirect channels and they often have to cannibalize other planes for parts. They are appealing for relief by arguing, without irony, “Unlawful coercive measures violate the human right to freedom of movement regardless of nationality and citizenship.”

Back in June, insurance companies were forced to pay for the planes Russia stole from leasing companies in 2022.

The internal security force Rosgvaria will add tanks, anti-tank guns, self-propelled artillery and MLRS artillery to their forces. In June 2023, the Wagener mercenaries reached the outskirts of Moscow before Prigozhin was convinced to stop it. Prigozhin and several senior Wagner officials were killed in a plane explosion two months later.

A Ukrainian drone is intercepted over Taganrog.

The former chairman of the St. Petersburg Committee for Transport Infrastructure Development fell from a window. Putin’s transport minister died in the same manner after being fired in July. They had both been on the same government team. And a multi-millionaire former customs chief was found in a toilet with his wrists slit after fleeing a court case.

Because it’s the Russian navy, a submarine in the Mediterranean Sea is leaking fuel in the bilge compartment and the crew doesn’t have the spare parts or qualified personnel to fix the problem. And a missile corvette is severely damaged after colliding with a tanker in the Azov Sea six weeks ago. Also in early August, a new tugboat, not yet in service, flooded and sank at a pier in St. Petersburg.

Russia has fertilizer plants in other nations and they’ve avoided the toughest sanctions because they are considered critical to global agriculture. EuroChem in Switzerland planned to send 40,000 tones of nitric acid to plants in Russia that make explosives. EuroChem and other chemical plants inside Russia have been repeatedly attacked to disrupt production of explosives.

Andrew Perpetua believes that the Rubikon pilots are only average. He says that they use better tactics and have access to more resources. Rubikon has also expanded from a few select pilots to a much larger organization in a short time.

Russian desertion rates doubled from 2024 to 2025 and could reach 70,000 by the end of the year. Common means of desertion are leaving the military base before deploying to Ukraine, not returning from leave, leaving the hospital, escaping the combat zone despite the checkpoints and military police, and using forged papers or bribery near the front. Russia has expanded its ability to prevent desertions and capture them, both at the front and in Russia, and about 82% of them are caught.

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Ukraine

The Ukrainian Air Force is forming an interceptor drone command to intercept Russia’s long-ranged drones. Working with radars, interceptor units are stationed on the front line, and additional units are located in echelon throughout the country.

An F-16 shoots down a drone.

Hungarian spies were arrested in Ukraine back in May. Last week, two Hungarian drones flew over Ukrainian airspace. The Hungarian foreign minister said that Zelensky is going crazy with his anti-Hungarian obsession and is starting to see things that aren’t really there. Ukraine’s foreign minister said, “We are beginning to see many things, Peter, including the hypocrisy and moral degradation of your government, overt and covert activities against Ukraine and the rest of Europe, serving as a lackey of the Kremlin.”

Fashion shows were canceled for two years, but they returned in 2024. One was interrupted by an air raid and make-up artists worked from a bomb shelter. This year, the war was featured with adaptive clothing that had zippers and velcro, and ten of the models were amputees or burn victims. There are an estimated 80,000 people that lost at least one limb because of the war.

The 12th Tank Battalion is the foundation for the new 12th Heavy Mechanized Brigade. The 29th Tank Battalion is the foundation for the new 29th Heavy Mechanized Brigade. There will be a heavy mechanized brigade in each corps but it wasn’t reported where the 12th and 29th brigades will be assigned. All tank units are now assigned to a regiment or brigade with the exception of the 300th Training Tank Regiment, so there are no more independent combat tank units.

Territorial Defense Forces were regional reserve forces that operated as separate battalions. There are currently 51 separate TD battalions and they will all be assigned to a TD brigade. This will simplify the command structure and is very much in line with the spirit of the Corps-Brigade reorganization.

There is yet another change of command for the 47th Mechanized Brigade. Col. Yatsishen was dismissed for unreported reasons. His replacement is 26-year-old Maksym Danylchuk, who was the Chief-of-Staff of the 30th Mechanized Brigade and became the 47th’s fifth commander.

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Gas stations provide fuel for generators during blackouts, meeting points between troops and volunteers providing crowdfunded equipment, and is often the first oasis of civilization for troops coming off the front line. With energy drinks and sausages on grills, it seems “like Las Vegas” to some soldiers.

At one station, screens inside the store tracked donations to the army being made at the pump. One chain of stations donates two Hryvnia to the army for each hot drink sold. Another donates one Hryvnia for each liter of gas sold and raised $34 million so far. That same chain offers free coffee, tea and hot dogs to service members near the front. Since 2022, more than 12 million of those items have been handed out.

Gas stations near the front display flags and patches that the soldiers provided.

A station employee that used to work in Kostiantyniva said, “They’d come in and say, ‘We need 15 hot dogs.’ Or, ‘We need 30 Americanos with milk, five without milk and one double espresso.’ They’d take the coffee and hot dogs, and bring them straight to the front line.”

Gas stations record the battles around them. When the Russians approach at a distance, they start to become damaged by shrapnel, like this gas station in Izium. When they get closer the windows are boarded up. A lot of gas stations are now in occupied territory.

One group of eight soldiers came straight off the front line. All were dirty, some wounded, and some had to be carried in. Desperately thirsty, they went into the bathroom and drank the water from the tap.

One infantryman travelling from the north stopped at a station on his way to the south. His unit is being redeployed because the Russian attacks in the north have dropped off. There were 44 in his unit once. Now there are just six. The rest were heavily wounded or killed.

The Okko station at the southern edge of Kostiantynivka was one of the first places soldiers coming off the front lines would visit. Zelensky visited it several times. When the Russians came within 16 kilometers, some of the staff left. Those that remained boarded up windows, piled sandbags against the wall and worked reduced hours. On May 28th, the Russians were 12 km to the northeast, 12 km to the southeast, and 12 km to the southwest. On that day, a Russian drone destroyed the station. The company posted a video of the station burning, writing, “Pain. The story has ended. But the people are alive, and that’s what matters most. As a result of an enemy drone attack, our last fuel station in Konstasi was destroyed.”

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(…to be concluded in the Part 4…)