You wrote: «Andrew Perpetua believes that the Rubikon pilots are only average. He says that they use better tactics and have access to more resources. Rubikon has also expanded from a few select pilots to a much larger organization in a short time.» I have no reason to disagree with his assessment. The last sentence really drives it home. When an elite organization gets watered out the result is always mediocre. Unavoidable. It might still be an overall performance increase of course, but the unit in question looses something.
The skill of the Rubicon unit has not gone unnoticed by their opponents. Ukrainian drone commanders, like Lt. Col. Kyrylo Veres, have described them as “top-notch" ("Top guys, I hope they don't scale up)" urging their own forces to study Rubicon’s tactics to develop effective countermeasures. The legendary Azov Brigade’s Denys Mishchenko called them a “powerful enemy” that demands serious attention.
There's no doubt that Rubicon significantly increased the effectiveness of Russian FPV drones. More effective tactics, better equipment and more equipment will all increase their impact on the battlefield. The quality of pilots would either increase or reduce the impact. With a large expansion there will be a greater spread in talent.
Tbh there always a tension between quality and quantity.
I recall a WW2 british high officer, Field Marshal William Slim if I remember correctly, criticised the use of special forces as a waste of ressources because their deployment would always be limited, thus leaving regular troops to do the same task with a fraction of ressource investment in secondary fronts.
History is full of exemples where the creation of special forces or elite forces came at a cost too high for the regular army. From modern wars all the way to ancient warfare (like the Roman Comitatus from the third century)
One could even argue this happened to AFU during the peak of its manpower crisis when an handful of "elite" formation had no problem to recruit and so picked the best while the majority of AFU brigade received no replacements at all.
As for the drones forces in particular, arent Ukrainians doing the same anyway ? With the difference being that the name Rubikon is applied broadly to Russian operators while AFU is stuck into its incessant small unit name cult ?
Pardon me if I sound too critical of AFU, it is just that I have grown increasingly irritated at the constant forming and disbanding and reforming and merging and dis-merging of small AFU units as reported on the website militaryland. Like the recent drama around Kraken. Or the 475th Separate Assault Regiment “CODE 9.2”
The tension is definitely there. Give a unit special equipment, selection of personnel, special rules and allowances, special tasks.. well that is a definition of an elite unit. And of course a drain on resources for the other units. So they need to perform. This is certainly possible. And Rubicon might have done it. But if you then expand the unit you increase the drain, you reduce the quality of people and you increase the need of training. The cost increase is clear. Will you get the gains? Less likely at least.
You wrote «There are an estimated 80,000 people that lost at least one limb because of the war.» Just a (gruesome) clarification. We are talking about arms and legs here? Loosing a finger wouldn’t qualify? Arms and legs would be the normal interpretation of the word limb, but just to be sure.
The story of the gas stations was wonderful. And the funding of the war never stops to amaze me. I hope someone writes a book on it. So modern with Go fund me and digital direct support like the Richshaws. So traditional with people paying for their own or their units expenses.
Regarding drones over Denmark, even over Norway, there is a lot of speculation and fingerpointing at Russia. Now I wouldn’t definitely not rule out that Russia is doing this. It fits their pattern. Still I cannot but remember the futile hunts for Soviet submarines in Norwegian fiords in the eighties. We never found any. The Swedes did, but that was self inflicted casualties. The sub stranded itself. So I am not saying it isn’t possible or it doesn’t fit the modus operandi of the Russians. But I think that when you look hard enough after something you see that something. This may be Russian drones, they may not be or it can be a combination. We just don’t know yet.
Russians are good at using proxies. They are probably paying locals to fly some drones. The ones flying might not even know they are getting in restricted airspace etc and who is directing them to do it. Russians are well practices in playing these games. Comparing this to the hunt for the submarines is a mistake.
You may be right. If there are drones. Tv and newspapers are filled with pictures that basically only shows some lights. But. The possibility of this being Russia (including by proxies) are real enough and must be investigated. Here I believe the police in Norway and Denmark will do this. Still I think it is worthwhile to remember all the scares there were and that they were for nothing.
While we don't know everything, it has been reported that bases, infrastructure and other sensitive sites. The Germans boarded a ship that likely engaged in reconnaissance activies, including the use of drones.
Yes there has been reports about drones near infrastructure, airbases and so on. That is the place observations will be made because that is where the observers are. And currently we are all staring at the sky and suddenly seeing strange lights. Please understand I am not denying that Russia has the ill will to do it. They may have the capacity as well. But the evidence is really flimsy after quite some investigations. My point is simpler. I know the Russians are sending tons of drones against Kyiv and other Ukrainian cities. Therefore I don’t doubt the need to invest in drone defense. (I doubt the western ability to defend against drones, but I guess we will learn the hard way.) Neither do I need any more evidence of the perfidity of the Russians, see above. (Yes there are tons of other evidence, I know.) So I am all in favor for increasing our capabilities against drones. If these sightings lead to that, very well. But I think we should investigate very thoroughly and also understand and accept that observations of light in the air might be a lot of things.
The big drone scare last year over bases on the East Coast was never adequately explained, at least not to my knowledge. It wasn't all private aircraft and planets.
Thanks! Yet, Russia has so many ports with many of them out of reach for the sea drone last that it will be next to impossible to cut off oil exports. I wish Germany or Denmark would allow several Ukrainian sea drones to “appear” in the Baltics. But it travelled all the way from Odessa 😎
What constitutes a Heavy Mech. Bg. ? A normal mech. Bg. also has a single tank battalion. From reading the linked article, did I understood correctly that they disbanded all large tank formations (in this case Brigades/Regiments) and used those tanks to create one Heavy Mech. Bg. for every Army Corps ?
The components of Ukrainian units are not standardized. Most have a tank battalion. Some of two, some have none. I expect over time they will become somewhat more standardized by type as part of this major reorganization, but it will be a slow process and the designations of some units are currently aspirational.
In the end, a mechanized brigade will have one tank battalion and a heavy mechanized briage will have two tank battalions.
Regarding the foreword of this part. I totally agrre with Tom. IMHO Ukraine is on the right track and their timing is good. If everything works out as intented this will be a very cold winter for the RF and could break their economic backbone.
If it does happen, it will only affect a very small part of Russia. Ukraine, however, could face not only a cold winter due to damaged thermal power generation facilities and a blackout due to a disrupted power grid, but also a nuclear disaster.
A small part of the RF in a geographical sense maybe. The RF does it's own damage for some time already by neglecting maintenance to save money. Last winter they already had thei share of 'frozen fountains'.
If their pipeline network is disrupted they will have neither the money nor the means to repair it quickly and that will cause additional consequences on their own. They have only little capacity for storage and if the pipes get frozen....
Don't forget it is about permafrost soil. If the drills get frozen they will have to make new ones.
What I meant was that it is entirely possible that the population of Ukraine will freeze to death, and this will happen much earlier than the freezing of the Russian Boers.
"Russia knows no borders" and is constrained only by power, not laws. Russia uses words to deflect consequences and undermine the power of others. If it was strong enough, it wouldn't bother with words.
I really wonder— if you Americans know how pathetic you all look, to the outside world. You fight amongst yourselves.. Democrats V Republicans, black vs. white, religion against religion, actually you all fight over every single topic. From an outside perspective, you're like the bullies in the sand pit.. You think you should be number one, with every other country below you but never equal to you right? What're your saying?.. God bless America and no one else Right? You create the weapons, the war and interfere in every other country on the planet. “You're the eternal agitators”.. And not since Trump but since “ALWAYS”. It's clear anyway that no president is in charge. There is something much more sinister going on behind the scenes. All that money going to defence budgets and it should be providing every damn citizen— with Free healthcare, number one priority today.. Food in your stomach, number two.. No more of this bull shit, war mongering, money drainers. You want all your kids 18+ sent overseas to these wars? Dem or Rep— The only time your sons and daughters should be getting ready for war, is if you need to fight an invasion on your own soil.. And that could definitely happen 99% of the world's problems are caused by the American oligarchy/elite class. You all should be embarrassed to call yourself American, the world is really starting to hate you all. And for you Democrats.. the way you carry on like little children, sore little losers of the election.. And you guys fucking sucked— when you held all the seats and all the power.. Fucking disgusting all of you.
Get it together or there will be suffering on this planet like never before and you will be to blame..
Fuck make America great again, how about make the world great again— 2000 years of peace, is what you all should be fighting for.. Abolish the insurance companies.. Stop letting corporations and billionaires run the show..
Stand up for yourself for fuck sake.
Much love to the peacekeepers..
From a New Zealand Grandmother
(with free healthcare and a 4% unemployment rate) You could have that too, if you work together.. Dumb ass’s.
You wrote: «Andrew Perpetua believes that the Rubikon pilots are only average. He says that they use better tactics and have access to more resources. Rubikon has also expanded from a few select pilots to a much larger organization in a short time.» I have no reason to disagree with his assessment. The last sentence really drives it home. When an elite organization gets watered out the result is always mediocre. Unavoidable. It might still be an overall performance increase of course, but the unit in question looses something.
The skill of the Rubicon unit has not gone unnoticed by their opponents. Ukrainian drone commanders, like Lt. Col. Kyrylo Veres, have described them as “top-notch" ("Top guys, I hope they don't scale up)" urging their own forces to study Rubicon’s tactics to develop effective countermeasures. The legendary Azov Brigade’s Denys Mishchenko called them a “powerful enemy” that demands serious attention.
https://t.me/lost_armour/6322
https://dronexl.co/2025/09/17/russia-rubicon-drone-unit-nightmare-ukraine/
There's no doubt that Rubicon significantly increased the effectiveness of Russian FPV drones. More effective tactics, better equipment and more equipment will all increase their impact on the battlefield. The quality of pilots would either increase or reduce the impact. With a large expansion there will be a greater spread in talent.
Andrew didn't mention the large expansion but I added it as a possible supporting fact.
Tbh there always a tension between quality and quantity.
I recall a WW2 british high officer, Field Marshal William Slim if I remember correctly, criticised the use of special forces as a waste of ressources because their deployment would always be limited, thus leaving regular troops to do the same task with a fraction of ressource investment in secondary fronts.
History is full of exemples where the creation of special forces or elite forces came at a cost too high for the regular army. From modern wars all the way to ancient warfare (like the Roman Comitatus from the third century)
One could even argue this happened to AFU during the peak of its manpower crisis when an handful of "elite" formation had no problem to recruit and so picked the best while the majority of AFU brigade received no replacements at all.
As for the drones forces in particular, arent Ukrainians doing the same anyway ? With the difference being that the name Rubikon is applied broadly to Russian operators while AFU is stuck into its incessant small unit name cult ?
Pardon me if I sound too critical of AFU, it is just that I have grown increasingly irritated at the constant forming and disbanding and reforming and merging and dis-merging of small AFU units as reported on the website militaryland. Like the recent drama around Kraken. Or the 475th Separate Assault Regiment “CODE 9.2”
The tension is definitely there. Give a unit special equipment, selection of personnel, special rules and allowances, special tasks.. well that is a definition of an elite unit. And of course a drain on resources for the other units. So they need to perform. This is certainly possible. And Rubicon might have done it. But if you then expand the unit you increase the drain, you reduce the quality of people and you increase the need of training. The cost increase is clear. Will you get the gains? Less likely at least.
You wrote «There are an estimated 80,000 people that lost at least one limb because of the war.» Just a (gruesome) clarification. We are talking about arms and legs here? Loosing a finger wouldn’t qualify? Arms and legs would be the normal interpretation of the word limb, but just to be sure.
That's arms and legs. I've seen a report that says they don't track toes and fingers.
Thanks for the clarification. Sad as it was.
The story of the gas stations was wonderful. And the funding of the war never stops to amaze me. I hope someone writes a book on it. So modern with Go fund me and digital direct support like the Richshaws. So traditional with people paying for their own or their units expenses.
For some units, 5% of their budget comes from public donations.
Public donations here not meaning public authorities I guess? Actually it’s more like private donations?
Donations received from the public through social media.
This is how I understand private donations in English:
https://www.collinsdictionary.com/us/dictionary/english/private-donation
Ok.
Regarding drones over Denmark, even over Norway, there is a lot of speculation and fingerpointing at Russia. Now I wouldn’t definitely not rule out that Russia is doing this. It fits their pattern. Still I cannot but remember the futile hunts for Soviet submarines in Norwegian fiords in the eighties. We never found any. The Swedes did, but that was self inflicted casualties. The sub stranded itself. So I am not saying it isn’t possible or it doesn’t fit the modus operandi of the Russians. But I think that when you look hard enough after something you see that something. This may be Russian drones, they may not be or it can be a combination. We just don’t know yet.
Russians are good at using proxies. They are probably paying locals to fly some drones. The ones flying might not even know they are getting in restricted airspace etc and who is directing them to do it. Russians are well practices in playing these games. Comparing this to the hunt for the submarines is a mistake.
You may be right. If there are drones. Tv and newspapers are filled with pictures that basically only shows some lights. But. The possibility of this being Russia (including by proxies) are real enough and must be investigated. Here I believe the police in Norway and Denmark will do this. Still I think it is worthwhile to remember all the scares there were and that they were for nothing.
While we don't know everything, it has been reported that bases, infrastructure and other sensitive sites. The Germans boarded a ship that likely engaged in reconnaissance activies, including the use of drones.
https://united24media.com/latest-news/german-forces-seize-cargo-ship-suspected-of-launching-russian-spy-drone-11512
Yes there has been reports about drones near infrastructure, airbases and so on. That is the place observations will be made because that is where the observers are. And currently we are all staring at the sky and suddenly seeing strange lights. Please understand I am not denying that Russia has the ill will to do it. They may have the capacity as well. But the evidence is really flimsy after quite some investigations. My point is simpler. I know the Russians are sending tons of drones against Kyiv and other Ukrainian cities. Therefore I don’t doubt the need to invest in drone defense. (I doubt the western ability to defend against drones, but I guess we will learn the hard way.) Neither do I need any more evidence of the perfidity of the Russians, see above. (Yes there are tons of other evidence, I know.) So I am all in favor for increasing our capabilities against drones. If these sightings lead to that, very well. But I think we should investigate very thoroughly and also understand and accept that observations of light in the air might be a lot of things.
The big drone scare last year over bases on the East Coast was never adequately explained, at least not to my knowledge. It wasn't all private aircraft and planets.
Thanks! Yet, Russia has so many ports with many of them out of reach for the sea drone last that it will be next to impossible to cut off oil exports. I wish Germany or Denmark would allow several Ukrainian sea drones to “appear” in the Baltics. But it travelled all the way from Odessa 😎
What constitutes a Heavy Mech. Bg. ? A normal mech. Bg. also has a single tank battalion. From reading the linked article, did I understood correctly that they disbanded all large tank formations (in this case Brigades/Regiments) and used those tanks to create one Heavy Mech. Bg. for every Army Corps ?
The components of Ukrainian units are not standardized. Most have a tank battalion. Some of two, some have none. I expect over time they will become somewhat more standardized by type as part of this major reorganization, but it will be a slow process and the designations of some units are currently aspirational.
In the end, a mechanized brigade will have one tank battalion and a heavy mechanized briage will have two tank battalions.
Thanks for the reply ! I am assuming these heavy mech. brigades will act as a operational reserve for their respective Corps.
Not necessarily. Their tank battalions would, though.
Regarding the foreword of this part. I totally agrre with Tom. IMHO Ukraine is on the right track and their timing is good. If everything works out as intented this will be a very cold winter for the RF and could break their economic backbone.
If it does happen, it will only affect a very small part of Russia. Ukraine, however, could face not only a cold winter due to damaged thermal power generation facilities and a blackout due to a disrupted power grid, but also a nuclear disaster.
https://glavred.net/ukraine/ataka-byla-celenapravlennaya-letelo-bolee-20-shahedov-kakaya-seychas-situaciya-na-chaes-10703099.html?utm_source=ukrnet_news
There is no defense against such massive attacks. Absolutely any energy facility could be at risk.
https://24tv.ua/vidklyuchennya-svitla-chernigivshhini-yakim-ye-grafik-vidklyuchen_n2925612
https://24tv.ua/vidklyuchennya-svitla-sumshhini-pislya-ataki-1092025-yakih-rayonah_n2925640
A small part of the RF in a geographical sense maybe. The RF does it's own damage for some time already by neglecting maintenance to save money. Last winter they already had thei share of 'frozen fountains'.
If their pipeline network is disrupted they will have neither the money nor the means to repair it quickly and that will cause additional consequences on their own. They have only little capacity for storage and if the pipes get frozen....
Don't forget it is about permafrost soil. If the drills get frozen they will have to make new ones.
What I meant was that it is entirely possible that the population of Ukraine will freeze to death, and this will happen much earlier than the freezing of the Russian Boers.
https://gazeta.ua/articles/regions/_rosijski-vijskovi-atakuvali-odesu/1231744
Sorry, but IMHO this is utter nonsense and wishful thinking of the Kremlin.
Fact is this https://t.me/pilotblog/24599
They are economically almost hanging in the ropes, so Ukraine has to keep up the pressure.
Addition: Got this minutes some new information.
https://t.me/pilotblog/24600
Thanks, Don.
“Unlawful coercive measures violate the human right to freedom of movement regardless of nationality and citizenship.”
Funny how that did not apply to Russia when they shot down MH-17.
"Russia knows no borders" and is constrained only by power, not laws. Russia uses words to deflect consequences and undermine the power of others. If it was strong enough, it wouldn't bother with words.
Thank you again and again.
I really wonder— if you Americans know how pathetic you all look, to the outside world. You fight amongst yourselves.. Democrats V Republicans, black vs. white, religion against religion, actually you all fight over every single topic. From an outside perspective, you're like the bullies in the sand pit.. You think you should be number one, with every other country below you but never equal to you right? What're your saying?.. God bless America and no one else Right? You create the weapons, the war and interfere in every other country on the planet. “You're the eternal agitators”.. And not since Trump but since “ALWAYS”. It's clear anyway that no president is in charge. There is something much more sinister going on behind the scenes. All that money going to defence budgets and it should be providing every damn citizen— with Free healthcare, number one priority today.. Food in your stomach, number two.. No more of this bull shit, war mongering, money drainers. You want all your kids 18+ sent overseas to these wars? Dem or Rep— The only time your sons and daughters should be getting ready for war, is if you need to fight an invasion on your own soil.. And that could definitely happen 99% of the world's problems are caused by the American oligarchy/elite class. You all should be embarrassed to call yourself American, the world is really starting to hate you all. And for you Democrats.. the way you carry on like little children, sore little losers of the election.. And you guys fucking sucked— when you held all the seats and all the power.. Fucking disgusting all of you.
Get it together or there will be suffering on this planet like never before and you will be to blame..
Fuck make America great again, how about make the world great again— 2000 years of peace, is what you all should be fighting for.. Abolish the insurance companies.. Stop letting corporations and billionaires run the show..
Stand up for yourself for fuck sake.
Much love to the peacekeepers..
From a New Zealand Grandmother
(with free healthcare and a 4% unemployment rate) You could have that too, if you work together.. Dumb ass’s.