Don's Weekly, 29 July 2024: Part 5

by Donald Hill

(…continued from Part 4…)

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Russia

After the Engels Air Base near Saratov was attacked in March, Russia moved its bombers to Olenya air base on the Kola peninsula. That increased the distance from Ukraine from 700 km to 1800 km, but Ukraine struck that air base with drones and reportedly hit a Tu-22M bomber. Dyagilevo air base, where bombers are stationed 160 km southeast of Moscow, and Engels air base were also hit. The results were unclear but smoke was reported at Dyagilevo. Polevava oil depot consists of ten tanks. Two were destroyed in February, and three more were destroyed last week. An Mi-8 helicopter burned at Kryazh airfield (900 km from Ukraine) on July 24, and on July 21, explosions were heard at a helicopter plant outside Moscow. An analyst confirmed the location of the fire and Ukraine reported that both an Mi-28 helicopter and a Ka-226 helicopter were reported destroyed.

A Su-34 went down of its own accord near Volgograd. The crew survived.

Three days ago, also one of Mi-28 attack helicopters, crashed while involved in UAV-hunting operations inside the Russian Federation, about 20km behind the border to Ukraine. The type is meanwhile notorious for its poor mechanical reliability, and susceptibility of its avionics to bad weather: thus, the VKS is keeping it away from the frontlines (or if deploying it there, then always herded by Ka-52s), and using its remaining Mi-28s to hunt Ukrainian UAVs.

The Tuapse refinery was attacked once again with drones. Russia said it shot down 75 drones, mostly in the Rostov and Krasnodar regions and over the Black and Azov seas. In the article, there is a video showing a flying drone impacting the refinery.

The attack on Russia’s energy grid continues as substations in Belgorod are hit.

The Russian army has mostly recruited the poor and minorities to sustain its force while residents from St. Petersburg and Moscow have been underrepresented. Russia is now offering $22,000 to Moscow residents if they join. If they are injured, they will receive $5,690-$11,390, depending on the type of injury. Their families will receive $34,150 if they are killed.

A Tu-160M that Putin flew on in February crashed in April due to maintenance issues.

An Su-34 was hit by a SAM but was able to return to base and land.

The debris of three Russian drones ended up on Romanian soil.

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Diplomacy

The EU has €210 billion in frozen Russian assets that earn about €3 billion a year in interest. The first €1.5 billion of that money has been transferred into a European fund. 90% of that money will be used to reimburse countries that sent arms or ammo to Ukraine. 10% will be used to build Ukraine’s defense industry or general reconstruction in case member nations, such as Hungary and Slovakia, object to the funds being used to send weapons and ammo to Ukraine.

After NATO held a meeting with Japanese and South Korean participation, Chinese troops held a 11 day joint military exercise in Belarus. They agreed to "oppose external interference and resist unilateral bullying”, saying that the alliance "keeps reaching beyond its boundary, expanding its mandate, stoking confrontation and acting like a bully on the world stage. … NATO should not use China to justify its insertion into the Asia-Pacific and attempt to disrupt regional dynamics." The Chinese leader Xi also visited Serbia and Hungary as their cooperation deepens.

At times, Russian missiles have briefly crossed Polish territory. In 2022, two Poles were killed by falling debris from a missile shot down by Ukraine. Poland wants to engage the missiles before they enter Poland to protect its citizens, they say.

In October, 2022, the German railroads were sabotaged in two places at the same time hundreds of kilometers away. On the opening day of the Olympics, the French rail systems was sabotaged simultaneously in three locations and a fourth attempt was defeated.

After saying Ukraine can use Storm Shadow missiles in Russia, and then clarifying the next they couldn’t, the UK is once again affirming that Ukraine can use Storm Shadow missiles in Russia, a statement they have yet to rescind.

In Mali this week, Tuareg rebels offered to send Russian prisoners to Ukraine, saying, "Dear Ukrainian brothers! We, the armed forces of the CSP-DPA, want to express our solidarity with you in your fight against Russian criminals. We have captured a significant number of Wagner mercenaries and want to hand over these prisoners to you as a sign of support and solidarity. This gesture is aimed at helping you in your struggle for justice and freedom. We hope that this will contribute to strengthening our ties and our common victory. With all our support, the CSP-DPA Armed Forces."

Mali had coups in 2012, 2020 and 2021. The UN, EU and African Union condemned the coup, the regime asked the UN peacekeepers to leave and Wagner mercenaries arrived in January, 2022 to support the regime. Tuareg rebels in the north ambushed a convoy, killing and capturing government and Wagner troops. One of the Russians killed was reportedly a Russian commander responsible for Bakhmut and Soledar offensives, a battle that was dominated by Wagner participation. After the rebels offered to send the Russian prisoners to Ukraine, Ukrainian private citizens responded with gratitude and one offered to send them drones.

In May, the leader of the Georgian Dream Party accused the US of “funding violence” and supporting “revolutionary processes” after the protests against the Kremlin-inspired foreign agent bill was passed. The party often accuses the US of wanting to open a second front against Russia to support Ukraine. As a result of these accusations, the US is conducting a full review of its bilateral relationship with Georgia and will not hold a joint military exercise with Georgia. The EU is freezing $32 million in military aid, halting Georgia’s accession to the EU and will be redirecting that money to the country’s civil society and media. Georgia’s foreign minister calls the decision "incomprehensible". Georgia had been one of the most pro-western Soviet successor states.

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Equipment

The Gebera drone is being used by Russia to ‘map’ Ukraine’s air defenses - through prompting these to activate and thus reveal their positions.

Russia started using inexpensive drones ($10k or less) in their strategic bombing campaign. They can fly up to 1,000 meters in altitude, out of machine gun range, and are used as decoys and to discover the dispositions of Ukrainian air defenses.

Boeing and Ukraine will now build drones together. Boeing has produced high-end drones with a high price tag for decades. It will be interesting to see what they develop on Ukraine’s budget and the impact it will have on the US military.

A 122 mm D30 howitzer, complete with anti-drone grill and explosive reactive armor.

The equipment US sent Ukraine was overvalued by $2 billion. This is not the first time this has happened. By the US’s own accounting rules, older equipment that is donated is assessed at a lower dollar value.

A brief look inside a Bradley fighting vehicle.

More aerial combat between drones.

Russian equipment losses since August 2023, as recorded by Andrew Perpetua