Don's Weekly, 28 October 2024: Part 3

by Donald Hill

(…continued from Part 2…)

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Russia

The Russian defense industry has over 1,300 companies that employ two million people. Rostec has 700 of these companies and employs 500,000 people. The CEO of Rostec says that the high interest rates on loans consume the profits and don’t allow for investment. He warns that Russian industry is threatened by mass bankruptcies. And the interest rate is not coming down.

Many expected the Russian Central Bank to raise their rate to 20% last Friday but they raised it to 21%, and the rate may rise to 22 or 23% in 2025. In June 2023, the interest rate was 7.5%. The inflation is being driven by trillion dollar funding for the military-industrial complex, the rising wages need to attract workers when there are few unemployed workers, and sanctions. Banks are charging customers 24.9 to 27.4% interest. The only way to prevent further inflation is to drastically scale back defense production.

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Kremniy El is one of Russia’s largest microelectronic plants that produces components for radars and missiles. It was attacked in August 2023, three times in September 2023, in December 2023, and a little over a week ago. The company said that production, administrative and power supply buildings were hit. As a result, production was halted and they were working to repair the buildings. The CEO said, “The primary task now is to restore electronics production as quickly as possible. However, not everything depends on us – there are challenges in obtaining spare parts needed to restore technological equipment and the energy infrastructure.”

If your company isn’t part of the Russian oligarchy then it’s risky to provide military equipment to the government. You have to separate accounting for your government contracts from non-government work and before you get paid for equipment delivered, you have to endure an audit. Paying your workers or buying raw materials above the average market price draws heavy scrutiny even if a superior product is created, and any suspicion can result in criminal charges for charging the government too much. Individual initiative, creativity and non-standard solutions are suppressed in favor of production from approved companies. All of this impacts the volume and productivity of Russian industry.

A Russian pilot involved in the bombing civilians was killed in an apple orchard. The head injuries were likely caused by a hammer.

There was turmoil in the Russian air force because they weren’t being paid what was promised.

Ukraine says that 40 North Korean instructors and 50 Russian soldiers were in a forest about 60 km north of the fighting and 10 km from the Ukrainian border to the west. The North Koreans were teaching Russians how to use balloons in military operations and the Russians were teaching them infantry tactics based on their experiences. After training was over, the North Koreans were left without food or any instructions or timelines for what to do next. 18 North Koreans left to find someone in charge. Two days later, they were found 60 km away and detained. All 40 North Korean soldiers have been moved closer to the fighting and may be pressed into assault missions.

Ukrainian hackers convinced the wives of pilots from the Russian 960th Assault Aviation Regiment to pose for calendars as part of a fundraising effort. The images helped reveal the identities of the pilots who are accused of bombing the Mariupol theater, a maternity hospital and hundreds of homes and businesses.

Chechen rebels killed three Russian soldiers near Grozny.

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Occupied Ukraine

Back in June, Crimean school kids were given a lower grade if they didn’t write a thank you note to their Russian occupiers. Recently, students in Mariupol were required to thank the Russians for liberating their city.

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Ukraine

Roman Hladky was a member of Naval Command when he and his wife made many unauthorized crossings of the Russian border in 2014 and 2015. From February 27, 2015 to January 1, 2016 he was head of the surface and underwater forces. He also made eight crossings in that time period. From July 2016 to 2018 he was Chief of Staff and First Deputy Commander of the naval forces but was dismissed for improper performance of duties. The media reported that he had financial and economic violations, that his wife had Russian citizenship, that she and their children still lived in occupied Crimea, and that a daughter swam for a Russian army club.

On July 25, 2024, he was named Chief of Staff of Ukraine’s Unmanned Systems Forces and the navy said he passed the security checks. The SBU later said they never conducted a check because it wasn’t a required procedure. Then the FSB Border Service database was leaked and an OSINT team discovered the many crossings he and his wife made across the Russian border. He was suspended on September 3, and last week Colonel Oleksiy Halabuda, former commander of the 28th Brigade (See Toretsk), was appointed as his replacement. Hladky remains under investigation for high treason.

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Ukraine is already encouraging North Korean soldiers to stay in their new POW camps with good food and large, warm and bright rooms. In order to see the message, the North Koreans probably have to borrow a cell phone from their Russian colleagues.

A helicopter gunship shoots down a Shahed drone.

A retired Ukrainian artillery officer says that at their current rate of advance Russia won’t reach the Donetsk borders in 2025.

The Korets Monastery is 230 km west of Kyiv. They have nine months to change ownership from the Russian Orthodox Church to the Ukrainian Orthodox church. Parishioners bury Ukrainian soldiers and bow their heads in prayers to the Russian patriarch Kirill. This 25 minute video has interviews with the local population to learn their views on the issue.

A child was two years old when her father was captured. 30 months later he returned as one of 95 prisoners that were exchanged. In this 15 minute video, loved ones gather to await their arrival. While they wait, they talk about what’s changed in the months their loved ones sat in prison. Nine minutes into the video, the buses arrive. Those that don’t have family at the site are given phones to call home. Mothers hug their sons, wives hug their husbands. Children start to become acquainted with their fathers again.

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Diplomacy

The greatest threat to South Korea is North Korea. South Korea provided non-lethal and defensive aid to Ukraine and sent artillery shells to the US as a form of indirect aid to Ukraine but refrained from sending offensive aid directly to Ukraine in hopes of avoiding a North Korean-Russian military alliance - and because its own laws are prohibiting arms and ammo deliveries to countries at war. But Russia is providing oil and presumably nuclear and missile technology to North Korea, in return for artillery ammo and ballistic missiles.

A stronger North Korea is a threat to South Korea so South Korea has an interest in seeing both North Korea and Russia failing. As such, they are considering sending offensive weapons directly to Ukraine and sending intelligence troops to monitor North Korean troops and interrogate any that are captured. On the other hand, most South Koreans oppose arming Ukraine and any decisions will probably be made after the US elections.

The US Republican House Intelligence chair said that if North Korean troops enter Ukraine then the US should consider taking direct military action. This is hyperbole, of course, because the US has no idea what the North Koreans might do.

The US wants to provide Ukraine with a $10 billion economic loan. Another $10 billion loan is planned for military support but…this action depends on congress taking action by mid-December.

With Russian interference, to include vote buying, Moldova voted to join the EU with a 50.39% majority. There were 11 candidates for president and the current president won 42% of the vote. In the November 3 runoff, she will face a pro-Russian candidate who won 26% of the vote.

In August, the ruling pro-Russian Georgia Dream party threatened to ban opposition political parties. Accused of misinformation, intimidation, buying votes and stuffing the ballots, they won 53% of the vote.

A fake video showing election officials tearing up Trump ballots was created by Russia.

BRICS was founded in 2009 with the belief that international institutions dominated by the West do not serve the needs of developing countries and they wanted to create an alternative to the World Bank, UN Security Council and G7 groups. The main objective of Putin at the conference is to develop a new platform for international payments that would be immune to Western sanctions. Also, NATO member Turkey wants to join BRICS but India blocked them due to their relationship with Pakistan.

The UN Secretary General declined to attend Ukraine’s invitation to the Global Peace Summit in Switzerland. He accepted an invitation to the BRICS summit from Putin, who has warrants for his arrest, and is hosting the summit in Kazan after invading another UN nation. He shook hands with Putin and embraced Lukashenka.

Two more Russian drones probably entered Romanian airspace.

A remembrance of the 1956 Hungarian revolution against the Soviet Union.

(…to be continued…)