Don's Weekly, 28 July 2025: Part 3 (Pokrovsk)

by Donald Hill

(…continued from Part 2…)

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Pokrovsk

Because firepower in a modern war is so deadly, the front lines on both sides are thin. Because of this, Ukrainian forces are able to penetrate Russian defense lines to attack positions further to the rear and capture prisoners, and Russians are able to send small teams into Ukraine’s rear. Some Russian teams entered Pokrovsk before they were eliminated. Others moved 6 km to cut the E50 highway on the west side of Pokrovsk. They were also eliminated but the number of Russian infiltration teams led to friendly fire incidents between Ukrainian forces.

Ukraine has a shortage of infantry - which is adding to the gaps in the line. They try to compensate for that shortage with drones, but when Rubicon started covering the Kostiantynivka and Pokrovsk sector in May, the Russians reacted by bolstering their drone-teams, and these began intercepting Ukrainian drones at a much higher rate. They were also more effective at attacking Ukrainian drone teams. Even if a drone team isn’t killed or wounded, the increased danger requires them to take protective measures, such as not launching from as close to the front, or taking more time to launch, especially close to the front. The threat of attacks suppresses the speed of operations even more than the effects of the attacks themselves. Any gap in drone coverage, combined with gaps in infantry coverage, means the chances of penetration by Russian infantry are higher.

If you see a drone stalking you while in an unarmored vehicle, the rule is to abandon the vehicle. The EW jammers were defeated by a fiber optic drone, or target acquisition AI or use of a frequency that was not being jammed.

A Russian propagandist was traveling in the Pokrovsk area on a motorcycle, which was a poor decision. Ukraine dropped gas and incendiary grenades on houses. The 155th Brigade hits Russian targets near Shevchenko.

Using satellite photos, Clement Molin marked every known airstrike in the Pokrovsk sector. Red dots on the map below are impacts from before 11 June. Orange indicates impacts between 11 June 11 July. Blue are the impacts from 11 July 18 July. This is a position still held by Ukraine that has been bombed for three months, before and after images.

The intensity of the airstrikes is increasing from about 120 impacts a week from mid-April to 11 June, to about 240 impacts per week from 11 June 11th to 11 July, to 450 impacts a week for 11-18 July.

These bombardments hit Ukrainian defensive positions and logistic routes. When combined with artillery and drone attacks, it is extremely difficult to evacuate casualties to the rear, and send replacements, ammo, water and food forward.

The 962 impacts from mid-April to June 11th., about two months, with the front lines of June 11th in brown.

The ~700 impacts from June 11th and July 11th, in one month, with the front lines of July 11th in brown.

The ~450 impacts from July 11th to July 18th, just one week, with the front lines of July 18th in green

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Komar

Russia advanced into Maliivka. Russian-occupied houses in Zelenyi Hai and targets in Vilne Pole are hit by drones. Russian airstrikes hit Sichneve. A Leopard 1A5 fires on Russian-occupied houses in Komar. The sector remains unstable.

Since mid-April, the airstrikes supporting the Russian advance around Komar have been heavy, but the airstrikes around Pokrovsk have been about ten times heavier.

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Zaporizhzhia

The Russians pushed into Plavni but the 128th Mountain Assault Brigade and 210th Assault Regiment counter attacked in Plavni and Kamianske, using drones and infantry to clear houses. 290 meters away from the clearing operation, a Russian drone attacks a house.

A Russian command post 5 km from the front line is hit by an airstrike.

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Kherson

Atesh destroyed a relay cabinet, halting rail traffic between Safonove and Novooleksiikva.

A Ukrainian reconnaissance drone carrying FPV drones was attacked by a Russian FPV drone. The regional police directorate in Kherson was hit by an airstrike. A transformer was destroyed. Just outside of Kherson, Sadove was hit by an airstrike.

On the eastern side of Oleshky, Ukrainian helicopters approached so a Russian fired a man-portable air-defense weapon (MANPAD). This can be seen in the opening second of the video. There are no reports that it hit a helicopter. The area was hit by a rocket barrage.

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(…to be continued…)