Don's Weekly, 28 December 2023: Part 2

(…continued from Part 1…)

Avdiivka

Near Stepove, we’ve discussed how defensive positions are destroyed over time primarily by artillery and tank fire. If you look at the October 19 video (below) you’ll see that a lot of trenches are still intact nine days after the offensive began. That is no longer the case. Because of that, the lack of defensive positions makes the ground too dangerous to hold after Ukraine clears it with a counterattack. Since the Russians are constantly attacking, there isn’t enough time to dig new defensive positions. Any partially dug positions would just be used by Russians who are willing to risk higher casualties to hold ground.

This has been shown before but it’s a reminder of what artillery can do to trenches. With enough shells, the positions disappear. The fact artillery and tank shells can terraform terrain impacts how the battle is fought…

https://twitter.com/TheDeadDistrict/status/1674717005591576576

Currently, Ukraine is using the railroad treelines to isolate Stepove from the rest of the battlefield. As Russian troops and vehicles move out from Krasnohorivka across the open fields, Ukrainian artillery and drones reduce their numbers. They remain under fire until the assault loses momentum and stops. Ukraine then counterattacks, sometimes with Leopards and often with Bradleys raking the treelines with 25mm cannon fire. Bradleys also transport small assault teams that clear out Russian stragglers from time to time. Once Stepove and the treelines by the railroad are clear, or mostly clear, of Russian troops, Ukraine pulls back to their functional defensive positions and waits for the next Russian attack.

Constantly pushing the Russians back helps preserve the defensive positions Ukraine currently occupies. This tactic is much easier for the 47th Brigade to use because of the firepower of the Bradley, which can engage Russian armor and has done so, and its cannon fire is very effective against Russian infantry even when they are in cover. If you watch the October 19th video below, it also talks about the Bradley’s ability to survive RPG attacks and keep functioning. This not only keeps the crew alive, it gives them the confidence to aggressively attack the Russians, which makes a huge difference.

The 110th Brigade is defending the coke factory and the treelines in front of it. They are doing the same thing as the 47th Brigade, attriting the advancing Russian forces as they approach the rail line trees, blasting the Russians that make it to the treeline and then send assault teams to mop up the survivors before retreating. They have one advantage in that the thick walls of the plant provide them with several machine gun positions, both on the ground and in elevated positions, and they are within 700-1500 m of the treeline. Another advantage is that the 47th Brigade often supports their assaults with Bradleys.

Small groups of Russians approaching Stepove are killed, six with one shell. Considering that $150 billion has been given in aid and it’s generated around 300k casualties, that averages to $500k per casualty so six casualties for an $800 shell is a pretty good deal if you can manage it…

https://twitter.com/NOELreports/status/1736499471138062840

More Russian assault groups are attacked by artillery, Bradley’s and drones…

https://twitter.com/wartranslated/status/1736707539985723452

An aerial view of the coke factory, which suffered heavy artillery fire and airstrikes but is well built…

https://twitter.com/666_mancer/status/1736844018829471962

A battalion commander in the Presidential Brigade recounts the opening days of the offensive in October…

https://twitter.com/wartranslated/status/1737054767321370708

In Stepove, two Russians hide in a basement. A Bradley runs over the entrance…

https://twitter.com/UKikaski/status/1737442817323016589

There’s not much left of Stepove…

https://twitter.com/UKikaski/status/1738533290238177431

An 18 minute video from December 10th showing a battalion commander from the 53rd Brigade watching his men repel a Russian attack that he estimated was the 5th biggest one since they were stationed at Avdiivka. He mentions that Ukrainian recon teams set up new mines at night and that Russians do not clear minefields before they assault. That particular assault was launched in the fog and before the Ukrainians saw them, three Russian tanks were destroyed by mines. That night, as they prepare to recover a Bradley stuck in the mud, they talk about supplies and their view of the Ukrainian government. I’m very surprised that they use flashlights at night to recover the Bradley when they are only 800 meters from Russian positions. Also, since the nearby 47th Brigade is the only brigade to have Bradleys, it appears that some were detached to support the 53rd Brigade, just as the 110th Brigade is sometimes supported by Bradleys.

Parts of this video were posted before but details and context have been added. On the night of October 19, three Ukrainian assault groups were to take three positions lightly held by Russians. Unknown to them, the Russians would launch four brigades towards the railroad near Stepove, hitting the 110th Brigade, the Presidential Brigade and the 47th Brigade where the three small assault groups were located. This follows one of those assault groups, which includes a headstrong soldier that is intent on doing his own thing, a medic that helps direct actions and the group leader that holds it all together. Outnumbered by Russian infantry, tanks and APCs, they are rescued by Leopards, drones and Bradley’s with infantry.

There have been a couple of occasions where they put fake bodies on destroyed vehicles. Any guesses as to why is probably correct…

https://twitter.com/wartranslated/status/1737919114830561756

A Russian jammer and three components of an air defense system were destroyed…

https://twitter.com/UKikaski/status/1736859329318322407

An unexploded Russian UMPK cluster bomb near Stepove…

https://twitter.com/RALee85/status/1738353107594031226

(…to be continued…)