Don's Weekly, 27 November 2023: Part 2

(…continued from Part 1…)

Kherson

During the Second World War, Allied mortars and artillery on the western front would regularly bombard the front lines and their observation planes would spot targets for artillery as far as 16 kilometers behind enemy lines. Allied fighter-bombers would regularly patrol the roads beyond, making movement very difficult during the daytime. There is a similar (but not identical) situation in Kherson. Ukraine does have air superiority over Russian drones, but they do not have air supremacy and Russian drones are still a threat. (One Russian report estimates there are three Ukrainian drones for each Russian drone). Another difference is that with thermal optics, it doesn’t matter if it’s night or day.

Because it has air superiority in Kherson, it is easier for Ukraine to detect and destroy air defenses and Russian drone teams, making it more difficult for Russia to regain air parity. Russia also has a notoriously big OODA loop, which significantly delays their responses to any threat. But they’ve also shown that in a static situation, they eventually do react to threats and overcome them with mass or a change in tactics. It’s difficult to say how long Ukraine will have this advantage in the Kherson sector, but while they have it, it’s acting as a force multiplier, making the limited number of troops they have on the left bank more powerful than they otherwise would be.

Because of its local air superiority, Ukraine is spotting more Russian EW units and is able to than attack them with artillery and drones. Fewer Russian EW units means they have less chance to jam Ukrainian drones, which means they are more likely to detect and geo-locate more EW units. These events spiral to an even greater Ukrainian advantage which is extended over Russian artillery, which has to constantly move to try and avoid detection. The Russian movements aren’t always successful, and, in any case, their constant movement reduces their availability to fire on Ukrainian infantry. It certainly doesn’t eliminate Russian artillery fire, but it does reduce it.

These deep battle air attacks regularly extend to 50 km from the front lines. Air defense systems, command posts and troop concentrations have been attacked at that range. As the range decreases to 25 or 10 km behind the front lines, the rate of detection increases as does the rate of attacks. Russian troops and equipment are attrited before they reach the front lines. There, under near-constant observation, they are attacked even more.

Troop density for both sides are low in the Kherson sector and so the front line is more fluid than in many other battlefields. In some places, trench lines and occupied houses create the same combat conditions you might find in Avdiivka or Bakhmut. In other areas, patrols engage enemy patrols not necessarily to gain territory but to establish freedom of movement for one side while forcing the other side back to their static defensive positions. During one Ukrainian patrol, they ambushed a Russian truck and stole its load of ammunition before withdrawing.

If Ukraine had enough troops, they would hold onto the territory reached by their patrols. But additional troops mean additional supply requirements. Ukraine regularly crosses the river and has even rotated out units with their casualties and replaced them with new units. Ukraine has demonstrated that they could transport significantly more troops over the river, but food, water and ammo for a week weighs a lot and it has to be carried on foot once the river is crossed. In order to supply a large number of troops, Ukraine needs a bridge connected to roads. In order to give the pontoon bridge a chance to survive, the Russians have to be pushed back about 25 km from the river so that artillery won’t be able to fire on it. It will still be subjected to drone attacks and airstrikes, but the further back the theoretical bridge is from the front line, the less chance it will be observed, the harder it will be to attack it with drones and airstrikes and the easier it will be to defend it. Naturally, it would be easier to push the Russian troops back with more troops, but now we’re talking about whether the chicken or the egg came first. (I hope that translates well: More troops make it easier to push back Russia so a bridge can be built. A bridge is needed to bring across more troops). Ukraine can do it, it just won’t be easy.

As an indicator of Ukrainian pressure, the occupation administration “temporarily” pulled out of Oleshky.

This individual states that Ukraine has 5 Marine brigades, 1 Air Assault brigade, 1 Armored brigade, 3-4 Territorial Defense brigades, 3 pontoon regiments, 1-2 artillery brigades, and marine commandos and special forces in the area. To support 5-10 brigades they will need 10-20 bridges. Those bridges also need access to roads, and if they are destroyed, Ukraine supposedly has only a limited number of replacements. In addition to pushing Ukrainian artillery far enough away, Russian aircraft need to be engaged with the long-ranged AIM-120 missile on the F-16. After pilot and ground crew training, and setting up the logistical support, estimates are that Ukraine will begin operating F-16s anywhere from January to March…

https://twitter.com/JPLindsley/status/1727708371816526100

A Russian brigade from Korsunka had pushed Ukrainian forces in Krynky two blocks west, but by the end of the week that terrain was recovered. Here, a Russian BTR engages Ukrainian forces and the wheeled vehicle gets stuck in a ditch while trying to turn around and leave. Magyar’s Birds had an emergency drone nearby and were able to respond with a drone strike in less than 90 seconds…

https://twitter.com/wartranslated/status/1728711280520028222

A series of Ukrainian drone strikes in the Krynky area. It also shows the terrain of where some of the heaviest fighting is taking place…

https://twitter.com/NOELreports/status/1728033436244619514

There used to be regular thermobaric attacks with TOS-1’s, but that stopped after Ukraine destroyed a couple. This attack happened at the beginning of the week…

https://twitter.com/EjShahid/status/1726626486332149884

Another useless Russia appeal, but they say their regiment was deployed to Krynky on July 30, 2023 and out of three companies (of 100-150 men each) they have 50 men left. Now, their commander wants them to assault Ukrainian-occupied islands…

https://twitter.com/wartranslated/status/1727980325249138795

Another drone attack on a Russian truck. When the video ended it was still moving and burning…

https://twitter.com/bayraktar_1love/status/1728037600487731606

30 km from the river to the north, a Ukrainian air surveillance radar is destroyed by a glide bomb…

https://twitter.com/WarVehicle/status/1728134777897906209

50 km from the river to the south, a Russian air defense system is destroyed…

https://twitter.com/EjShahid/status/1726213873680974061

With all the Ukrainian drones available for detecting targets it’s inevitable that Russian drone teams will be spotted. This is one more team that was engaged. It’s the equivalent of strafing an enemy airfield in WW2…

https://twitter.com/NOELreports/status/1728380039488565283

12 km south of the Sahy crossroads, a Russian MLRS is destroyed by a Ukrainian MLRS with an M31 rocket…

https://twitter.com/Tendar/status/1728328763329413514

A larger kamikaze drone with 4 kg of explosives was “tested” on a Russian-occupied house near Krynky…

https://twitter.com/NOELreports/status/1727238341203202524

A Russian report on his unit: Two Wagner veterans are providing training and leadership to otherwise untrained troops. Reports to superior leadership is often delayed or deliberately incorrect. Cooperation with adjacent units doesn’t exist. Russian glide bombs are plentiful and inaccurate. Indirect fire support is limited because the mortars and artillery have to keep moving to evade counter-battery fire. The lack of recon drones increases their danger because there are a lot of Ukrainian patrols that conduct ambushes and they can’t spot them…

https://twitter.com/NOELreports/status/1726926283848696018

A report from the right bank that a Russian conscript unit refused to fight in front of Oleshky Sands and that a Russian special forces unit sent to the front was pummeled by artillery…\

https://twitter.com/AleksandrX13/status/1728831223165022247

If you’ve followed the weekly maps, you know Kherson is regularly shelled just to cause misery…https://bsky.app/profile/maks23.bsky.social/post/3kcxek2u6d526

Oleshky Sands used to be grasslands but overgrazing by sheep a could centuries ago created a bare patch in the arid, low-fertility area and it grew into sand dunes. There are other arid areas (that are not quite deserts) but the national park is a circular patch that is 17 x 15 km wide. To keep the sand from spreading, pine trees were planted on the edges. This video is from 2018…

Crimea

A radar and air defense unit was destroyed in Dzhankoy…

https://twitter.com/NOELreports/status/1728016174045143278

A scouting report…

https://twitter.com/DI_Ukraine/status/1727219315794117082

Russia

A general who criticized Putin was found dead alongside his wife…https://www.kyivpost.com/post/24200?fbclid=IwAR0mPs76O-XamyuUgWF8H2iwWi1Xr-b46CRbLPCeVBtj-6tGpXkeqqxduSE

Arguably, he retired already in 2009, and had no influence in the public, but this is once again showing just how super-sensitive is Pudding’s regime to any kind of dissent.

The first authorized rally for wives and mothers of mobilized soldiers took place in Novosibirsk. Even then, it was held indoors and only family members could attend. They were protesting various conditions their loved ones had to endure…

https://twitter.com/ChrisO_wiki/status/1726228932863680872

Families of soldiers that are killed are supposed to receive death benefits, but many bodies are not recovered. As a result, the military and government often say, “No body, no case”. The families can bring lawsuits to declare the soldier dead, and sometimes they are. Sometimes the lawsuits are rejected. Missing in action, even for months, even if witnesses saw the soldier die, is not grounds for death benefits. As one woman said, “I’m not a widow, but I’m not a wife, either.”…

https://twitter.com/ChrisO_wiki/status/1727248667143483489

The deputy head of Kharkiv was killed in his car while in Belgorod, just across from the Ukrainian border…

https://twitter.com/bayraktar_1love/status/1727732920268243290

There were temporary power outages in the Moscow area one night…

https://twitter.com/NOELreports/status/1727594156862615630

A Ukrainian orphan was transported to Russia, adopted and renamed, and will now be raised as a Russian to hate the concept of Ukraine…

https://twitter.com/maria_avdv/status/1727605112003031124

You can have a military birthday party in Russia, complete with oaths and bomb throwing…

https://twitter.com/Gerashchenko_en/status/1727628116225351962

Last March, a law was passed making it illegal to characterize the invasion of Ukraine as a war. This week, Putin broke that law…

Sanctions are hitting Russian civilian aviation hard. Even though 35% of all planes have been cannibalized for parts, the rate of failure is increasing…

https://twitter.com/Gerashchenko_en/status/1727698972767089109

Money is being diverted from health care to the war effort…

https://twitter.com/Gerashchenko_en/status/1728059468930232606?t=-TUJ6SnIC_X2Eo9aeOs2cw&s=19&fbclid=IwAR1mh5H5t7UNo9PLD5E8q-CKYYTOk5qgtI6EHQVDpEeZ-SoG7eIa3LU9PE4

There’s been widespread drone attacks in Russia. The only damage reported so far is minor damage to an apartment and a non-specific report of damage to infrastructure…

https://twitter.com/sambendett/status/1728755743463997580

Local water and electrical outages made combating the fire at the Chelyabinsk tractor works difficult. Explosions were heard before the fire. They produced tank engines there…https://twitter.com/hashtag/Chelyabinsk?src=hashtag_click

They are constantly recruiting in Russia…

https://twitter.com/DanaSLJL/status/1727626995985514507

Russia passed a law extending the age of conscription from 27 to 30. This means over 2 million more men will be eligible for conscription…

https://twitter.com/Gerashchenko_en/status/1728685956281045450

A report that predicts a new wave of mobilization in Russia might not happen because 20,000 men are signing contracts each month for salaries that are 3-5 times the average salary in their region…

https://twitter.com/Gerashchenko_en/status/1728781233155342630

This is just one report showing the level of care for the wounded back in Russia, location unknown. I don’t know how representative this is. It could be an outlier or it could be a trend. With consistantly high levels of Russian casualties, it’s possible that their healthcare system is stressed…

https://twitter.com/wartranslated/status/1728337988135047418

Details on what has been burning in Russia over the last 20 months…https://molfar.com/en/blog/what-burned-best-in-russia

Diplomacy

A Polish report that Ukrainian truckers don’t have to follow EU rules and therefore have cheaper rates. Polish truckers have blockaded three (and a report of a fourth) crossings. One issue: Ukrainian border guards check all loads but there is an express lane for essential goods and the guards let Ukrainian trucks use it for non-essential goods, as well. The main issue is that it’s unfair competition and small Polish businesses can’t compete and go broke. In one of the comment sections, he says that the outgoing Polish political party is doing nothing to try and solve this issue to try and gain future votes and create a larger problem for the incoming ruling coalition…

https://twitter.com/pjasinski/status/1727704476125983060

Many Polish truck drivers do not support the blockade. The leader of the blockade is a pro-Russian politician…https://genderdesk.wordpress.com/2023/11/25/rafal-mekler/

At the end of the week, it is reported that 1700 Ukrainian trucks are blocked at the Polish border…

https://twitter.com/jurgen_nauditt/status/1728445128560226345

Ukraine says they are starting to have fuel shortages because of the blockade…

https://twitter.com/kvistp/status/1728544098653479401

A far-right, pro-Russian politician in the Netherlands won the most votes, but it’s only 24 percent. Since most of the Netherlands strongly supports Ukraine, their support for Ukraine will continue…

https://twitter.com/sjoerdeman/status/1727702338595389508

A Russian propagandist and a Ukrainian, both from the Donbass, agree that most of the pro-Russian support in the region is gone…

https://twitter.com/Gerashchenko_en/status/1727781889425961311

Lithuania says that Ukraine’s lack of missiles and ammo and the EU’s slow decisions may eventually force Ukraine to ask for peace…

https://twitter.com/NOELreports/status/1727778144633991381

EU legislatures voted 305 - 276 to demand treaty reform. This impacts many issues, such as admitting new members, but it might also remove unanimous approval as a requirement for passing votes. Hungary has a history of blocking issues that are supported by others. The new governments of Slovakia and Netherlands (if they form a right-wing government) might follow suite. 15 of 27 EU nations have to agree to open the discussions on treaty reform…https://www.euractiv.com/section/eu-reforms/news/the-little-noticed-vote-to-change-the-eu-treaties/

There is now only one border crossing open between Finland and Russia as Finland shut down the others. If Russia keeps sending migrants, their lives will be in danger due to the winter conditions…

https://twitter.com/maria_drutska/status/1727952394837712928

Fortunately, Russia opened temporary shelters…

https://twitter.com/Gerashchenko_en/status/1728695006460891324

Equipment

This report noted that a Russian artillery barrel exploded while using a Chinese-produced shell. Chinese shells have been found in Ukraine and were probably shipped to Russia from North Korean or Iranian stockpiles. A Russian artilleryman that lost his leg said that the shell he fired was Chinese. The author contacted an artillery expert who said that barrel wear can be ruled out. There has been discussion about poor North Korean manufacturing standards creating a threat for barrel destruction, but a more like possibility might be improper storage of the round, failure to clean dirt off of it or disregard for safety procedures…

https://twitter.com/kromark/status/1727677728311095380

Ramping up artillery ammo is going to take another year to reach minimally adequate levels, and it will still be far short of what is needed. If it weren’t for the stockpiles of DPICM ammo, which is more effective than HE (in most cases), Ukraine would be in dire straights. They aren’t making anymore DPICM ammo. When it’s gone, it’s gone. And they aren’t going to produce enough HE ammo needed to dominate the battlefield. Drones are very useful in their own right, and while they cannot replace artillery, they can fill some of the void. I agree with the suggestion that high levels of production of inexpensive and effective drones would be very useful. I also have little faith that it will happen anytime soon, if at all…

https://twitter.com/RALee85/status/1726987147784368631

Ukraine will receive naval ships to safeguard grain shipments…https://bsky.app/profile/maks23.bsky.social/post/3kezdcvqako27

Air defenses in Odesa will be increased…https://bsky.app/profile/maks23.bsky.social/post/3kezczpg6nx2j

This report says that Russia produces or imports 700-1000 drones a month. It also says only 66 drones were shot down in November 25th…https://us.firenews.video/war-in-ukraine-news/shahid-attack-chmut-assessed-russias-ability-to-carry-out-uav-strikes/

Russian S300 decoys…

https://twitter.com/front_ukrainian/status/1726218930229051752

Training in Germany to maintain and repair the recently-arrived Leopard 1 tanks…

https://twitter.com/NOELreports/status/1726623779017859165

Russian vehicular anti-drone devices that looks to be effective up to 20 m. They won't work for munition drop drones or against AI drones that don’t need controllers. We'll see how they work against operator controlled kamikaze drones...

https://twitter.com/TankDiary/status/1728754950413467652

A Ukrainian hand-held drone jammer. The battery lasts for 40-60 minutes and has a reported range of 1.5 km…

https://twitter.com/HamWa07/status/1728505213961875788

A pilot’s story of his first day of combat, how the Su-24M was used and what the F-16 will do…https://armyinform.com.ua/2023/11/21/lotchyk-bombarduvalnyk-pro-znyshheni-kolony-okupantiv-vorozhi-raketni-udary-po-aerodromah-ta-poloty-na-granychno-malyh-vysotah/?fbclid=IwAR0_eQiVHHqbhISEVR6vUbXn7uAI-bIWReXIiLKJhXcY9zbWF8hQe50gUB4

(….to be continued….)