Don's Weekly, 27 November 2023: Part 1

Hello everybody!

There you have it: started preparing today’s Don’s Weekly at 05.40 in the morning. ‘Few’ e-mails and a ‘short’ teleconference with several authors and illustrators working on projects related to Helion’s @War book-series - and it’s almost the noon….

Anyway…

As reported already a week ago, the war in Ukraine is in something like ‘state of standstill’: bad weather and mud are preventing large-scale operations. Moreover, both sides are re-grouping and replenishing after long and intensive summer campaigns. Nevertheless, fighting remains intense - especially so in the Avidiivka area - as ‘confirmed’ yesterday, when the ZSU claimed another 750 Russian military fatalities. Reason: the Russians run a major assault on the industrial zone north of Avdiivka, and captured its north-eastern corner.

What was an exception from these ‘rules’ was the massive Russian strike with Shahed LPGMs in the night from 24 to 25 November: 75 have entered Ukrainian airspace, 74 of which were claimed shot down by PSU’s air defences. Because so many Shaheds were shot down that night, it’s hard to gauge what were the Russians targeting this time. That said, my assessment is that this was actually a ‘mapping’ mission. Mind what I’ve explained about the way the PSU’s air defences are working, earlier this year, and how the Russians are using means of electronic intelligence gathering (ELINT) to track that work. With other words: I’m quite sure that the Russians were searching for ways their Shaheds to force PSU’s radar- and SAM-sites to power up and open fire, so they can detect their positions. I do expect them to run several additional, similar operations, before unleashing their ‘missile offensive’ of this winter - also when the weather gets much colder, later in December.

Ukraine retaliated with its own drone-attack on Russia. this was run from 03.30 until 09.20 of 26 November and included 36 drones that hit targets in Moscow and Moscow Oblast, in the Tula- and Smolensk area. The Keystone Cops in Moscow claimed to have shot down 24 of Ukrainian UAVs, and there is no doubt: such strikes are meanwhile exercising such pressure upon the Russian air defences, that there are reports about withdrawal of S-300/400 systems from the Kaliningrad area towards central western- and south-western Russia.

The last night, the Russians run another Shahed-stream and this time scored a hit on one of DTEK Energo’s thermal power plants.

On the ground, and in general, the only location where Ukraine is trying to move forward is in the Kherson region. Even in that sector there are few reports of territorial advances but I’ve seen a few reporters saying that they don’t want to say anything yet. In most other locations, persistent Russian attacks continue as they try to seize the initiative across the country. Artillery, drones and mines are the biggest factors holding back the Russians.

Western Luhansk

Territorial gains of 100-500 metres sometimes do happen, but that territory might change hands again a week later. After so many losses, Russia is reorganizing its forces around Kupiansk to continue operations there.

Near Lyman, drones attacked trucks and soldiers…

https://twitter.com/EjShahid/status/1726378291722854853

A Russian volunteer delivering water posted pictures. The newly-revealed unit was attacked by artillery and drones over several days. Ukraine thanked the volunteer. Obviously, the volunteer was undisciplined but unless the source was compromised, Ukraine should not have revealed it…

https://twitter.com/wartranslated/status/1727245191713632431

Bakhmut

Ukraine stopped advancing. Russian low-level attacks are persistent as ever and there is one report that they seized the railroad station north of Klishchiivka.

A police brigade (Lyut Assault Brigade) is now defending (and reportedly lost a little) ground north and east of Klishchiivka…https://pbs.twimg.com/media/F_ZCdEHXYAAna4d?format=jpg&name=large

This article on the Lyut (Fury) brigade was recently published but the interviews were from before the liberation of Klishchiivka, in which the Lyut brigade participated…https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/2023/11/17/cops-trenches-ukrainian-police-key-fight-against-russia/

This Russian is mixed in with the 72nd Brigade in front of Klishchiivka. He hears that they have been making progress (against the new Ukrainian unit) but, as he says, no one knows anything. He takes us on the tour of the place, starting with the defensive position that he’s digging and confirming that the deeper he digs, “the more *!@# alive” he stays. He shows the minefields that are actually marked, and he shows several blurred out bodies, calling a couple of them by name. They won’t rotate him out because he’s a gunner for an automatic grenade launcher and there’s no one qualified to replace him, so they say…

https://twitter.com/Gerashchenko_en/status/1728470086346842364

I don’t know how old this video is, but a 3rd Assault Brigade soldier is hit in the chest by a bullet. The armor worked…

https://twitter.com/NOELreports/status/1728011319058530334

This footage is at least a couple weeks old, just released, showing the effectiveness of bomber drones between Andriivka and Kurdiumivka…https://nitter.net/Teoyaomiquu/status/1726754890360197218#m

An old video showing the 3rd Brigade attacking an outpost defending Andriivka, which was held by the Russians then. You can see it because of Ukrainian thermal sights. A Ukrainian walks up to the hole and drops a grenade into it. When the Russian emerges from the hole he is shot several times. Even without night vision devices, the Russians shouldn’t have let this happen. It is possible that he was sleeping. The Ukrainians reported that in addition to this attack, they secured the forward line of the Russians defending Andriivka…https://t.me/ab3army/3391

Avdiivka

Russia likely lost more than 10,000 dead in Avdiivka since the offensive started on October 10. Even with the dead and the associated wounded, they have around 40,000 men in the area. This means they’ve been reinforcing the sector and will be able to continue with the assaults for a few weeks with just the forces on hand. It also doesn’t rule out further reinforcements.

There have been reports that the Russians have increased their beatings of troops reluctant to assault and have been using barrier troops to shoot anyone who might retreat. While I have no doubt that this is true, I also don’t know how widespread this behavior is and it may be as little as 1-2% of their forces. Those Russians that do attack are fighting hard in the assault and in the defense. There are other reports about how disciplined Russians are in some areas: One Russian assault group moves forward and is wiped out and then the next assault group forms and advances shortly afterwards. This may happen ten waves in a row.

The air strikes, drone attacks, and shelling depicted on this map are accumulations from Andrew Perpetua’s maps. They don’t represent ALL the strikes: just the ones he was able to record. But, they’re offering an indication of the locations and intensity. Mind that a sharp increase of Russian air strikes on the Avidiivka area can be monitored.

On the northern flank, they no longer conduct assaults with armored vehicle support. APCs drop off infantry at Krasnohorivka and the infantry then walks as far as 3 km to the front line to begin the assault. This tactic has been working, too. This week they focused on widening the breach and did manage to gain 500-1200 m across the front to the north. Since the assaults were to the north, the 47th Brigade troops in Stepove used artillery and drones to pound the Russians holding the railroad across from them in the center of the northern flank. Some Russians ran away and the 47th conducted an assault supported by Bradleys to finish off the remaining Russians. Once they secured a section of the railroad over a kilometer wide, they started digging in with shovels to try and hold the line and survive Russian bombardments and assaults that were to come. They could not simply re-occupy the existing defenses because many of them were severely damaged or destroyed by artillery from both sides. Russia also conducted attacks around the reservoirs on the south side of the northern flank but there are no reports that they have gained ground here.

One Ukrainian defender estimated that the intensity of the attacks on the northern and southern flanks had decreased by 30%, but the attacks in the center (southeast of Avdiivka) had increased. After some gains in the industrial zone, the Russians took another defensive position after heavy losses. They had attacked it with artillery and drones but machine gun fire killed many of the advancing troops. When they secured the position, they found that there weren’t any Ukrainian defenders, only a machine gun set up with a camera and remote firing mechanism. The Ukrainians had only visited the site to replenish the ammo and change out the batteries…

On the southern flank, tanks still accompany infantry assaults but some are bogged down in mud and others are hit by mines, artillery, ATGMS and drones. Just as mines are difficult for Ukraine, they are a major part of the defense against Russia. When mines are cleared or detonated by Russian vehicles, Ukraine replaces them with new mines, usually deployed by artillery. Russian demining vehicles are such a high priority that M31 rockets from HIMARS/MLRS are used to destroy them.

Just a side note: The 47th Brigade led the attack in the Robotyne sector for over three grueling months. The fact that they were pulled from that front and sent to defend the key coke factory/Stepove sector near Avdiivka is not just an indication of how much faith Ukraine has in the brigade, it’s also an indication of how important defending Avdiivka is compared to advancing near Robotyne. The 47th was formed from volunteers and suffered heavy losses in Robotyne. They now have older, barely-trained conscripts as replacements and are still not up to full strength. When the 47th was moved to Avdiivka, the Russians moved more drone units to the area to attack the Bradleys and Leopards.

In this sector, both sides are actively using drones and Russia has more of them. If I had video of them attacking behind Ukrainian lines I would post it, put soldiers tell of Russian drones interdicting their logistical lines, attacking trucks that bring supplies and carry out wounded, this in addition to the attacks on the combat vehicles and spotting for artillery. In one report, an ambulance was stuck in the mud on a dirt road. A second ambulance arrived to help out and mortars destroyed both vehicles. Fortunately, all of the medics were uninjured. They will buy all-wheel drive vehicles as replacements so they are less likely to get stuck in mud.

A Bradley unloaded its six infantrymen near the battlelines at Avdiivka. There are no details, but 15 minutes later, five were dead and one seriously wounded…

https://twitter.com/GloOouD/status/1728180920404824095

A Bradley supported by infantry fires at Russians along the railroad (see map). This was yet another attack on the coke factory that was stopped…

https://twitter.com/EjShahid/status/1728459115087774039

While advancing to the front lines on the southern flank, a Russian tank is hit by an ATGM 2 km behind the front lines (see map)…

https://twitter.com/naalsio26/status/1727863545952354795

In earlier posts I mentioned that the Russians dug tunnels under the fields so they wouldn’t be exposed to fire to assault the treeline. Here they emerge from the tunnel southeast of Avdiivka to attack the Ukrainian position with drones, grenades and gunfire, forcing the Ukrainians to retreat…

https://twitter.com/albafella1/status/1727684293747466382

Ukraine is short on ATGMs across the country and drones aren’t always available due to jamming or other issues. I don’t know why artillery wasn’t available. One of the reason why Ukraine was pushed out of the industrial zone southeast of the city is because of the unchallenged Russian tank support. (Event 4 on Avdiivka map)…

https://twitter.com/JulianRoepcke/status/1728715346066932035

Drone images of the scattered dead from the Russian infantry attacks in the north…

https://twitter.com/GlasnostGone/status/1727715962521051174

A 33 minute video of the 47th Brigade defending the railroad a couple of weeks ago. It starts with a small platoon reinforcing the line in the early morning. They use a tablet to orient themselves on the drive to the lines in a Bradley, then they have to find the trenches when they dismount in the dark. The gunfire is already heavy. You never actually see the Russians, but they are close enough to throw grenades and you hear the tanks. You can see why there is constant attacks and counter-attacks along the trees near the railroad. The medic stays busy treating the shrapnel wounds…

A Bradley in front of Stepove pops its smoke grenades to create a screen and uses its thermal sights to engage Russian troops in the treeline 250 meters away. Those ruined houses just behind the Bradley is as far any Russian attack into Stepove ever reached. Also an HE and DPICM impacts…

https://twitter.com/RALee85/status/1728197379973894276

The coke plant was the largest in Europe. Coal is heated to over 1000 °C in an airless kiln, eliminating water, coal gas and coal tar. The resulting coke is used for smelting iron. Coal tar pitch, ammonia, hydrogen sulphide, pyridine, and hydrogen cyanide are byproducts that are collected and used in other industrial processes. There were 16 employees maintaining the coke plant until they evacuated on November 7th, a month after the offensvie started…https://news.yahoo.com/last-avdiivka-coke-plant-workers-113600301.html?guccounter=1&guce_referrer=aHR0cHM6Ly93d3cuZ29vZ2xlLmNvbS8&guce_referrer_sig=AQAAAAr_yjNoA5F0wuTIVzuTO0sNU05-DDX4uy6uMWcCNkTfSr0ezRKDvtcAjh6FfVGOWaK6tpvFnD1gLycNY2gKHvQpzf0VTRJpsqOctubEYZ7ySQjHvBY4CIojM0w7HIEGe5yLzhcorHtkWJwXNN3zA6Vry91GjPM3aQsvmRH-x49g

A Ukrainian soldier urging soldiers to dig. He says a lot of soldiers don’t dig out of laziness. (That’s also a leadership issue). He says Russians dig like moles (see the post about tunnels) and when they’re in the rear, Russians dig. Inspectors come and hold commanders accountable…

https://twitter.com/SomeGumul/status/1726219807769457036

I’ve seen many posts from replacements taking over a defensive position. They’re either complaining that the previous owners didn’t dig, or posting their gratitude that the previous owners did dig. Here is a reminder from last week of the level of fortifications that save everyone in this unit despite being under prolonged, intense bombardment..

https://twitter.com/FundPerun/status/1725121353307590958

Marinka

At Novomykhailivka, 8 km south of Marinka, Russians have been installing portable EW systems on their destroyed vehicles…

https://twitter.com/wartranslated/status/1727666398636236854

Ukrainian troops in an isolated trench came under attack in the same area. Ukrainian troops run in to support them, as did a drone that was not jammed by those Russian EW systems. It was reported that the Ukrainians later withdrew with all their personnel…

https://twitter.com/wartranslated/status/1727955532143542569

A compilation of Russian drone attacks near Novomykhailikva…

https://twitter.com/EjShahid/status/1727496007657644324

11 Russians disembark off the top of a moving tank…

https://twitter.com/wartranslated/status/1728741216534286817

Mokri Yaly Valley

Russian cluster bombs are dropped by Starimaiors’ke…https://twitter.com/RALee85

Mariupol

70 km from the front line, a drone hits a truck. Drones hit trucks all the time, but they usually don’t expend drones with a 70 km range to hit them. It could be a less expensive drone launched from a much shorter range…

https://twitter.com/EjShahid/status/1727803487541399653

For example, it could be a drone carrier operation, in which a larger drone carries a smaller drone to conduct the attack…

https://twitter.com/PStyle0ne1/status/1726498616020283439

Robotyne

The Russians brought in the 56th Airborne Assault Regiment to prevent Ukraine from widening the bulge by Verbove.

Using thermal imaging, a drone directs artillery fire on Russian infantry north of Verbove…

https://twitter.com/EjShahid/status/1727773837196947569

(…to be continued….)