Don's Weekly, 27 May 2024: Part 5

(….continued from Part 4…)

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Ukraine

A construction store in Kharkiv was hit by a bomb. In a 20 sq. km area there are 450,000 people, may of whom visit the shopping center that was hit on weekends. Constantine’s father was working 200 meters away. 200 people could have been inside. Initial reports say 4 were killed, 16 are missing and 38 wounded. The son of one of the missing. A view from inside and outside. The airfield for the plane that launched the attack is within ATACMS range but it is also in Russia…https://x.com/bayraktar_1love/status/1794377289360089105

Downtown Kyiv was also hit. At least 18 were injured. A view from the other end of the street…https://x.com/maria_avdv/status/1794429059591553337

Some business facts, as the economy is vital to Ukraine’s survival: 2,652 foreign-owned businesses were opened up in Ukraine since February, 2022. Turkey, Uzbekistan, Poland and the US are the top four countries of origin.

Kharkiv is responsible for 3% of the nations GDP. Almost all the energy is provided by generators but the biggest issue isn’t the bombing or energy, but the shortage of workers. Only highly skilled workers are exempt from conscription and many do not want jobs that will make their presence known to the bureaucracy.

IT is responsible for 5% of Ukraine’s GDP and 95% of their customers are abroad, but Ukrainian men cannot travel if they are under 60.

The western city of Lviv has the highest population of internally displaced Ukrainians with 240,000 to 350,000 of them. As a result, the demand for housing and property is high and the prices are rising with the demand.

Despite higher taxes, Ukrainian banks made higher profits than last year. Saudi Arabia might be interested in investing in Ukraine. And 87% of Ukrainian agriculture exports moved through the Odesa region…https://kyivindependent.com/ukraine-business-roundup-a-tale-of-two-cities/

After delivering ambulances to the western city of Lviv, a volunteer discusses hotel bomb shelters, the preservation the city’s memorials, and the daily funerals…https://x.com/prchovanec/status/1794259047606280523

Ukraine played a game in Bosnia and Herzogovina…https://x.com/Herzeg11/status/1770923618005840089

The invaders seized grain and used their police to abduct, torture and terrorize the inhabitants. Some were killed. Her pregnant mother was forced to clean the shoes and wash the clothes of the invaders while they drank and sang songs and used their house as a medical clinic. She was just a baby, one or two years old, and her mother tried to protect her from the Germans, but what she saw still haunted her dreams.

Now 83, it was her job to protect her 46-year-old daughter from the invaders. After the Russians abducted her daughter from their Kherson home she searched the prisons and other parts of the city for a week. Her daughter returned on her own a week later but wouldn’t talk about her experiences.

Yuliia Nikitenko lost her father when she was two. The Soviets executed him in 1938 during the Great Purge. Then the Germans came and evicted them from their house. Then the Russians came to her house and asked to see her passport. They ordered her to get a Russian passport. She never did, saying she loved Kherson and Ukraine.

Kharkiv changed hands four times during the Great Patriotic War. When it was all over, most of the city was destroyed. The first time the Germans came, they were at one end of the city when Anna Lapan, 18 and Jewish, was leaving at the other end. She and her family boarded a cattle car as the bombs fell. Her father died in the fighting around Stalingrad in 1943 and they came back to the city after the Germans left for the last time. She had to leave again in 2022. When she returned, her house was damaged and the cracks have not been repaired yet.

For some Ukrainians, this invasion brings back childhood memories…https://www.nytimes.com/2024/05/20/world/europe/ukrainian-nazi-russian-occupation-survivors.html?smid=url-share

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Diplomacy

Analogies aren’t perfectly true but they contain truth. Do not quibble with the facts of the analogy, focus on what he is trying to say: By choosing to fight, Ukraine is reducing the risk of Russia for the rest of the world. This should justify greater support than they’ve already received…https://x.com/United24media/status/1793069765084508455

In February, Macron said nothing should be ruled out with regards to sending western troops to Ukraine. Lithuania’s foreign minister said that they trained Ukrainian troops before the 2022 invasion so returning to the tradition is possible. The US policy prevents their troops from entering Ukraine, but the Joint Chiefs of Staff says that sending NATO (and US) trainers into Ukraine is inevitable and will eventually happen.

Ukrainian troops have been trained in Poland and Germany, but the transportation of soldiers and equipment takes time. A lot of the training outside of Ukraine did not prepare the troops for combat conditions within Ukraine. There is hope that if the trainers are in Ukraine they will have access to more information and can adjust their training accordingly. One of the concerns is that trainers will be at risk for missiles and drone attacks, and they will have to decide whether air defenses will be used to protect the trainers or the cities and front lines. The US is also reviewing its ban on contractors entering Ukraine. It would be more efficient to fix equipment in Ukraine, and contractors for the Patriot system have already been to Ukraine…https://www.nytimes.com/2024/05/16/us/politics/nato-ukraine.html

Russia seized over $773 in assets from UniCredit, Deutsche Bank and Commerzbank…https://www.morningstar.com/news/marketwatch/20240518261/russian-court-seizes-assets-worth-over-700-mln-from-unicredit-deutsche-bank-and-commerzbank

Poland will spend $2.5 billion to fortify its 400 km border with Belarus and Russia. It is spending 4% of its GDP on defense and is modernizing its army…https://www.thedefensepost.com/2024/05/20/poland-fortify-eastern-border/

Six nations that share a border with Russia and Belarus decided to build a wall of drones on that border…https://x.com/nexta_tv/status/1794306330879987751

After existing for decades, Russia objected to border markers with Estonia in 2023 and unilaterally moved some of them…https://news.err.ee/1609350048/russian-border-guards-remove-markers-from-estonian-waters-in-narva-river

Russia posted, and then removed, a decree to change the Baltic Sea borders…https://www.politico.eu/article/russia-defense-ministry-change-baltic-sea-border-finland-latvia/

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Equipment

While the Russian S-400 surface-to-air missile (SAM) system is effective against a Tochka-U missile, ATACMS is much more difficult to shoot down. It can reach the target in 2-3 minutes, so Russia would need to use systems with high-speed missiles, such as the S300 and S400. But ATACMS is psuedo-ballistic, meaning that as it glides towards the target, it changes direction now and then. This is what makes it harder (but not impossible) to shoot down than a ballistic missile with a straight path.

The reason is that the crucial part of interception of any flying object is predicting where it will be and where the SAM will be - and that based on previous data. If a missile changes its course faster than an air defense system can detect, track and predict where it’s going to be then it won’t be shot down. Here is an example of an ATACMS missile with cluster munitions in flight…https://x.com/ThrustWR/status/1794322061680386153

Russia has fewer T-72 tanks in storage than expected. But, the Russian losses in T-72s are declining…https://x.com/HighMarsed/status/1793762380515852380

Somewhere in Ukraine, Russian drone operators are working out of a civilian bus…https://x.com/TOGAjano21/status/1794093245829468597

A reminder that it’s common for multiple drones being required to destroy a single target. In this case, line of sight communications was probably interrupted by terrain, such as trees, resulting in loss of navigation control on the final approach…https://x.com/AndrewPerpetua/status/1794312301824413918

Russia is struggling to intercept the M39 versions of ATACMS. The M48 and M57 models have an even better chance of surviving. Ukraine received ATACMS because the US produced enough of the next generation PrSM. It has even more survival enhancements…https://x.com/ColbyBadhwar/status/1794057934315381111

Several T90 turrents spin uncontrollably when suffering minor damage…https://www.forbes.com/sites/davidhambling/2024/05/24/spinning-turret-syndrome-the-disastrous-bug-in-russias-most-modern-tank/?sh=3238941d1ec0

A few Russia EW trench jammers with a ranges around 1 km…https://x.com/GrandpaRoy2/status/1794105704292192544

Russia has lost almost 16,000 pieces of equipment. Ukraine has lost almost 6,000 pieces of equipment…https://x.com/joni_askola/status/1794308917234909316