Don's Weekly, 26 February 2024, Part 4

(….continued from Part 3…)

Russia

Ukraine reportedly,

• downed a Su-34 bomber on 21 February,

• a Su-34 and a Su-35S fighter-bomber on 19 February,

• another Su-34 bomber on 18 February,

• as well as two Russian Su-34 jets and another Russian Su-35 on 17 February.

• They also shot down a second rare A-50U 200 km from the front lines with an older S-200 that has a longer range than the 160km Patriot. The A-50 detects Ukrainian radars and other electronic gear. Knowing the location and capabilities of Ukrainian defenses helps them plan and execute their missile, drone and MPK/UMPK airstrikes. The highly trained crew of 15-18 was also lost…https://kyivindependent.com/russian-a50-plane-shot-down-over-azov-sea-military-says/

It takes years to train the crew of an A-50U.

A display on board an A-50U.

"Video from Genicheskogo district from the crash site of the Su-34", 23 Feb…https://t.me/Crimeanwind/54346

Because of the shootdown, five other Russian aircraft had their missions terminated. “An additional sign of the success of the joint operation by DIU and the Air Force is the order to terminate the missions for two Su-35 aircraft as well as three Su-34 aircraft belonging to the Russian Aerospace Forces, which were flying missions near the village of Millerovo – some of them planned to conduct airstrikes near Avdiivka.”…https://ukrainetoday.org/5-more-russian-aircraft-were-ordered-to-terminate-their-mission-ukraines-intelligence-on-downing-of-a-50-aircraft/

The location of the crash site is 140 km southeast of Mariupol and over 200 km from Ukrainian front lines…

https://twitter.com/UAControlMap/status/1761136535007555601

Putin says Russia can’t shoot down its own airplanes…

https://twitter.com/wartranslated/status/1750924522742542510

Russia fired 24 North Korean missiles so far. Only two have been fairly accurated, aimed at an airfield and an oil refinery. All of the missiles killed a total of 14 civilians and injured 70 more…https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/kyiv-says-russia-has-fired-least-24-north-korean-ballistic-missiles-ukraine-2024-02-16/

1300 km from Ukraine, a shopping mall that was turned into a drone factory in Izhevsk caught fire…

https://twitter.com/KyivIndependent/status/1758842720926277711

An oil depot in Kursk was hit by a drone…

https://twitter.com/wartranslated/status/1758790604169818604

The factory in Lipetsk produces 18% of Russia’s steel and several drones hit it 350 km from Ukraine’s borders…

https://twitter.com/wartranslated/status/1761314832853107067

On Russia’s border with Estonia, FSB agents have travelers fill out forms and then copy their phone to investigate any pro-Ukrainian activity…https://meduza.io/en/news/2024/02/21/russian-fsb-reportedly-asking-travelers-crossing-estonian-border-about-attitudes-toward-e-u

“[Putin’s] challenges are threefold: he must fund his ongoing war against Ukraine, maintain his populace’s living standards, and safeguard macroeconomic stability. Achieving the first and second goals will require higher spending, which will fuel inflation and thus prevent the achievement of the third goal”. -Alexandra Prokopenko…https://www.foreignaffairs.com/russian-federation/putins-unsustainable-spending-spree

Diplomacy

Watching your teammates being wounded and killed is difficult. When your job is to try and save as many as possible, it’s even more difficult. When you know there is a way to reduce their casualties, with ammo and equipment, and the efforts of dozens of nations are haphazard at best, it’s heartbreaking…

There are some in the US that claim Ukraine isn’t America’s problem. Their stated desire for isolationism ignores the realities of the world and the attempts of US isolation prior to both world wars. For those that refuse to acknowledge the value of collective security, let me remind you that there is only one time that Article Five of the NATO charter was invoked, and that was after the 9/11 attacks…https://www.nato.int/cps/en/natohq/topics_110496.htm#:~:text=NATO%20invoked%20Article%205%20for,the%20Russian%20invasion%20of%20Ukraine.

Before 2022, Russia accounted for 16% of the world’s wheat exports. They now account for 24% of all world exports. Europe imported 31% more Russian wheat in the first 8 months of 2023 than they did in the same time period of 2022…https://eng.lsm.lv/article/culture/food-drink/26.10.2023-latvia-has-become-eus-largest-importer-of-corn-from-russia.a529178/

A Ukrainian report…

A Polish report that describes the environment and politics within Poland. Here are two paragraphs:

“Up to this point, we have two layers of the cake: the protest of European (including Polish) farmers against EU policy and the protest of only Polish farmers against the import of Ukrainian grain. We are now laying further layers on the foundation thus prepared: PiS's political war with the rest of the world, the Confederation's idiotic attempt to establish itself, the activity of anti-system and sock-skeptic circles, classic pseudo-patriotic hysteria, progressive anarchy and the incompetence of the state and the media. We pour the icing of Putin's propaganda over the whole thing and decorate it with the icing of a state-destabilizing provocation. And tick, we have a cross-border disinformation cake, the consumption of which may have negative consequences for the entire region. Please serve with champagne open in the Kremlin.”

“Let's summarize. The EU's energy transformation may hit European agriculture. And the import of cheap Ukrainian grain without EU certificates affects Polish agriculture. But these are things that need to be dealt with at the legal level, taking into account the demands of the interest group such as farmers. However, on this foundation, we have built a megalithic structure of anti-European, anti-Ukrainian and openly pro-Russian lies, manipulation and pseudo-patriotic hysteria. A simple thing was wrapped in emotional narratives with far-reaching geopolitical consequences. The farmers' protest is being used instrumentally by political parties (PiS, but above all Confederation), openly pro-Russian movements, ordinary provocateurs and self-appointed sheriffs who do not know who they represent. And by Kremlin propaganda, which will happily show everyone (Poles, Ukrainians, Russians) that all of Europe is on the threshold of some kind of civil war between oppressed citizens and oppressive governments. Vladimir Vladimirovich likes this. And very much so.”

The Polish prime minister says they cannot let pro-Putin Poles take advantage of the farmer’s strike…

https://twitter.com/MKot316/status/1760635005141758003

More details are in the post…

https://twitter.com/PutinizmPolski/status/1759875734544244816

A bipartisan delegation of four US senators traveled to Hungary to discuss Sweden’s membership in NATO but the Hungarian government refused to meet with them…https://apnews.com/article/us-senators-resolution-hungary-democracy-f4972b78c0f1f8d6a905058c8bc250ae

The Czech Republic wants the EU to buy 800,000 shells (500k 155mm, 300k 122mm) from South Korea, Turkey, or South Africa. France, Greece and Cyprus oppose it. France wants to boost its own defense industry. Greece and Cyprus don’t want to buy shells from Turkey. $2 billion is needed to buy the shells…https://kyivindependent.com/borrell-eu-member-states-can-procure-ammunition-for-ukraine-outside-the-bloc/

Canada will commit $30 million to buy the shells…https://www.cbc.ca/news/politics/ukraine-russia-canada-artillery-shells-1.7120329

In addition to donating all of its nation’s artillery, Denmark is committing $250 million to by the shells…https://en.interfax.com.ua/news/general/968982-amp.html?fbclid=IwAR3O94lxX1qZ-KlrjiWEIhM9hrCtDIetgQ6r1AVnSmwHxFSQADpa4iyYIOQ

Russia recruited vandals to sow dissent by defacing monuments and destroying property. Ten Russian or Russian-Estonian citizens were arrested…https://www.politico.eu/article/estonia-thwarts-russian-hybrid-operation-arrests-10/

The Russian pilot that defected to Ukraine with the Mi-8 helicopter was offered and opportunity to fight with Ukraine’s army, to stay in Ukraine as a civilian with some degree of protection, or to live in an EU country. Against advice, he chose to live in Spain in a community of Russians and Ukrainians fleeing the war. He was shot several times and then a car drove over him…https://www.nytimes.com/2024/02/20/world/europe/russian-pilot-maksim-kuzminov-spain.html

China says resistance in occupied territories is not terrorism…

https://twitter.com/ShaykhSulaiman/status/1760617879060217981

The NATO Secretary General says that F16s will be allowed to hit targets inside Russia…https://www.kyivpost.com/post/28446

For 19 months, Hungary refused to allow Sweden to join NATO while complaining about Sweden saying there was democratic backsliding in Hungary, teaching materials in Swedish schools that were critical of Hungary, and comments that prime minister Kristersson said years before he took office, and complained that Sweden didn’t show Hungary enough respect. Hungary demanded negotiations and Kristersson said he didn’t see the need until they were part of NATO. A US bi-partisan delegation of politicians in Budapest was not received by the government. Even though Orban promised that Hungary would support Sweden’s bid to join NATO, the ruling party boycotted the vote earlier this month.

Then the Swedish prime minister changed his mind, traveled to Hungary, promised to sell four more Gripen aircraft and open an AI center in Budapest. Hungary then approved Sweden’s entry into NATO.

Hungary’s papers are now talking about their negotiating tactics. Orban praised Sweden as a trusted partner, noted that they took in a lot of Hungarian refugees after the failed 1956 uprising, and that Sweden strongly supported Hungary’s 2004 entry into the European Union. Hungary accounts for 1% for the EU’s economic output and it has a 40,000 man military. But Orban now says that the two countries are ready to fight and die for each other…https://www.nytimes.com/2024/02/23/world/europe/sweden-hungary-nato.html?smid=url-share

Equipment

The US says they haven’t seen evidence that Iran sent 400 ballistic missiles to Russia but they will sanction Iran if it is true…https://kyivindependent.com/white-house-us-to-impose-new-sanctions-on-iran-go-further-if-ballistic-missiles-sent-to-russia/

30 km east of Mariupol, a UK-made target drone was landed by Russian electronic warfare…

https://twitter.com/front_ukrainian/status/1759487137391469030

Ammo, spare parts and regular maintenance are needed to sustain operations for advanced technologies. The US provided Ukraine with advanced weapons but did not have a plan to sustain them in the country over a long period of time…https://www.dodig.mil/In-the-Spotlight/Article/3681630/press-release-evaluation-of-sustainment-strategies-for-the-patriot-air-defense/

The US says Ukrainian ammo shortage for artillery and air defense will be critical by the end of March…

https://twitter.com/UkrReview/status/1760741534926864654

This aligns with what is obvious to me: Drones are a transformative weapon with their own unique qualities but they do not replace the unique qualities of artillery. Drones do not replace artillery, they complement it…

https://twitter.com/RALee85/status/1760779878285070807

Tom Cooper reports that Russia still has 7-8 A-50U’s and A-100’s left in service.

The history, stretching back to the 1960s, of how the Soviet Union/Russia became dependent on foreign countries for the computer chips required in any modern military. As Gorbachev told Mitterand in 1985, his country was merely a third-world country with nuclear weapons…https://asiatimes.com/2022/08/russias-chips-failure-coming-home-to-roost/

Russian fire superiority has varied in the last few months between a 3:1 and 7:1 advantage.

Estonia estimates that Ukraine needs 6,700 rounds per day, 200,000 per month, 2.4 million per year at a minimum. Ukraine says they need 11,800 rounds per day, 354,000 per month, 4.2 million rounds per year to successfully execute all battlefield tasks, including offensives.

In 2024, the US will produce 36,000 rounds a month by March, 60,000 rounds per month in September, and 100,000 rounds a month by the end of 2025. Congress would still need to approve funding to send them to Ukraine. By the end of 2024, Europe is expected to produce 1.3-1.4 million rounds. This is the equivalent of 3,800 rounds per day. Since shell production for all countries are ramping up through the year, Ukraine may only have 3,000 shells per day by summer, and it will be less if some of those shells are used to fill the depleted warehouses of the producing countries.

All producers had contracts to supply 155mm shells to other countries before 2022. The US deferred deliveries to those countries but Europe has not. Up to 40% of this year’s production could go to these countries if priority is not given to Ukraine.

A Finnish and Ukrainian estimate believes that in 2023 Russia produced 2 million shells and received another 1 million from North Korea. Estonia believes that production, refurbishment of old shells and North Korean shells added up to 3.5 million for 2023 and they think they will produce 4.5 million shells in 2024. If Russia has 3.5-4.5 million shells this year that will translate to 9,500-12,000 shells per day.

The authors recommend that Ukraine be given total priority in shell delivery until the summer. After that, third party nations can receive their contracted shells only if Ukraine received a certain minimal amount (such as 6,000 shells per day). If the US congress does not authorize shipping US shells to Ukraine then Europe should buy them from the US. In any case, European production should be expanded to create stockpiles not just sufficient for Ukraine’s needs, but for European needs to serve as a deterrent against future aggression against future Russian expansion.

Here is the complete article by Gustav Gressel and Marcus Welsch in the original German…https://drive.google.com/file/d/1kDfwQ1hZrtMoZCJ_5IS503XQtq_GhSNg/view?fbclid=IwAR3Gn3eTx6SCpug1h7V5ters20X8KPQVzWjvdy32JWHYB31oE-Fu0kAVdqU

RUSI says that Russia plans to keep the pressure on Ukraine while conducting asymmetrical warfare to reduce allied aid to Ukraine, much like it has with the US. Once the aid to Ukraine is reduced or eliminated, Russia will increase the intensity of its offensive operations until Ukraine capitulates, which it expects to happen in 2026.

Russia believes with its current losses and recruiting it can sustain this level of attrition in personnel until 2025. Its production of equipment has actually surged, but 80% of its tanks and armored fighting vehicles are refurbished from storage. It will likely maintain that level of production in 2024 but the remainder of the stored vehicles will take longer to restore in 2025 and this option is likely to be exhausted by 2026. Russia has been able to stabilize its source of western components but only by paying an additional 30%. Russian artillery production is likely to plateau at 3 million rounds per year.

RUSI concludes that if Ukraine’s allies provide sufficient aid then Russia’s attacks in 2024 will be blunted, they will be unlikely to gain any territory in 2025 and Russian military systems will begin to collapse in 2026…https://www.rusi.org/explore-our-research/publications/commentary/russian-military-objectives-and-capacity-ukraine-through-2024?fbclid=IwAR3pbpaFzn3CrPFq1E9Xes8Av6SG9axgWPMWgB3DpqQoDxGPctpaO8oRT2U

Additional factors to consider is that Russia is warding off economic collapse by spending. If Ukraine is able to significantly damage Russian energy production and exports it will have less to spend. In any case, Russian spending is contributing to its inflation that will be unsustainable at some point. Finally, if Ukraine’s allies continue to increase their aid then not only will Ukrainian lives be saved, Russian personnel and equipment will be destroyed at a faster rate, accelerating the collapse of Russian military capabilities.

War is a battle of wills. There are many trends that favor Ukraine if the world has the will to see it through.