Don's Weekly, 26 August 2024: Part 5

by Donald Hill

(…continued from Part 4…)

***

Ukraine

As more men join the Ukrainian army, jobs that are traditionally being held by men, such as mining, are increasingly being held by women. Before 2022, 47% of Ukrainian women worked. After the invasion, 13%, or 1.5 million female workers, left the country. These changes in the workplace may outlast the war.

After Syrsky went to great lengths to maintain secrecy about the planning of the Kursk operation, a member of Ukraine’s parliament said, “The surprises are not over.”

In one of his relatively rare public appearances, Syrsky reported, “Since the beginning of the large-scale aggression, the enemy has used more than 9.6 thousand missiles and almost 14,000 attack drones. Over 2.4 thousand missiles and 9.2 thousand drones were destroyed by air defense systems,” added Syrskyi.

Ukrainian drone pilots can earn cash for certain targets hit. They can also accumulate points to earn drone equipment for their unit. There’s no word on a points program for the infantry.

***

Diplomacy

Ukraine and Russia exchanged 115 prisoners, including 82 defenders of Mariupol taken over two years ago.

NATO allies promised to send five additional long-range air defense systems. Germany sent its fourth PATRIOT system and the US will deliver its third soon. Romania, Netherlands and Italy won’t be sending a system anytime soon.

If Harris wins the US election, Philip Gordon will likely replace Jake Sullivan as National Security Advisor. For those wondering whether the US will lift restrictions on the weapons it supplies, there is little information to read in the tea leaves.

The president of Belarus congratulated Ukraine on Independence Day. "I am convinced that today's contradictions will not be able to destroy the centuries-old foundation of sincere good-neighborly relations between the peoples of the two countries," Lukashenko said. He also "wished the Ukrainians a peaceful sky, tolerance, courage, strength and success in restoring a decent life."

Speaking of peaceful skies, Iran congratulated Ukraine on its independence - via X/Twitter, too.

In 2007, Putin’s website celebrated Ukrainian independence from the Soviet Union. "Our peoples are linked by centuries of spiritual and cultural ties and inseparable friendly and neighborly relations," the message read in part, according to the release. "I am convinced that the stability and consistent development that exist today, as well as the progressive strengthening of the Ukrainian government on a sound legal basis, namely that of democratic principles, is in both of our countries' core interests. We are in favor of further developing mutually advantageous Russian-Ukrainian cooperation in all possible ways and expanding joint efforts to make our relations those of truly strategic partners."

***

Equipment

In Kursk, Ukraine captured an intact anti-drone jammer, together with related documentation. The 13 kg device uses magnets to mount on any vehicle and uses 30 watts to jam a wide range of frequencies.

The 100th Mechanized Brigade, the 225th Assault Battalion, the 25th Airborne Brigade, and the 82nd Air Assault Brigade have all been assigned Marder IFVs, and now the 33rd Assault Battalion received Marders, as well.

Some Russian reconnaissance drones appear to be using camouflage, as seen by the Ukrainian drone hunting it. Ukraine is using thermal imaging drones to detect Russian reconnaissance drones flying at night. And another Zala was intercepted by a Ukrainian drone.

In 2015, CIA operatives started working with Ukrainian troops on the front lines and showed them how the Russians were tracking their phones and using their locations to fire artillery missions. This article lists the rules given to Ukrainian soldiers, lists the eight different methods any adversary can use to locate an electronic device, mentions how Russian soldiers sometimes steal phones for communication, not realizing how it puts them at risk, how a German unit in 2019 was reliant on phones because they didn’t have enough secure radios, and says that the Russians use Android malware to locate the tablets that Ukrainians use to steer drones.

Drones that use radio signals often have blurred pictures and the commands given to the drones can be interrupted by atmospheric disturbances or terrain that partially or completely blocks the radio signals. An example is this Ukrainian drone that attacked Russian troops in Kinburn Spit last week.

These are two Russian FPV drones reportedly using fiber optic cable that is spooled out as it flies. Notice the clarity of the picture and the lack of any kind of interference. One downside is that the drone’s movements cannot be as erratic as a radio-controlled drone as that might break the cable.

The Palyanytsia jet-powered drone was deployed by Ukraine in Russia for the first time according to Zelensky, hitting an ammo dump in Ostrogozhsk, 125 km away. It can fly 150-300 km depending on the payload of 30-50 kg, and estimates of its speed range from 400-600 kph. The announcement was made during a speech marking Ukraine’s 33rd independence day. The “Palyanytsya” drone missile, named after a traditional Ukrainian bread, carries symbolic and practical significance. The word “palyanytsya” became a linguistic shibboleth during the Russian invasion of Ukraine in 2022, as it is notoriously difficult for non-native speakers, particularly Russians, to pronounce correctly due to the phonetic nuances of the Ukrainian language. The word has since taken on additional cultural resonance, symbolizing Ukrainian identity and resistance.

Russian rail can only move 93% of the cargo that needs to be shipped. If engines in rail yards are attacked it would create bigger problems for the Russian economy. If the engine houses were attacked then it would be harder to repair locomotives.

A comparison of self-propelled artillery in a Bryansk storage facility from May 2022, when it held 343 vehicles, to 187 vehicles in August 2024. At the biggest storage site that had half the mothballed self-propelled artillery, the number of vehicles dropped from 2,504 in 2021 to 1, 566 now.

Overall, there has been a 40% decrease in the number of stored self-propelled artillery pieces and many of the remaining vehicles are in too poor of a condition to restore. There’s still 72% of the 2S1 vehicles that were first produced 52 years ago. It’s also taking longer to restore vehicles that are pulled from storage sites, which also speaks to their state of repair. There are too many factors to accurately determine when Russia will virtually run out of self-propelled artillery but the trend continues to show a steady decline in numbers.

Andrew Perpetua created a chart that shows Russian vehicular losses peaked in April and have been in a steady decline since. (Dotted lines represent actual numbers, solid lines represent a three-month average at that point in time). The single reason for this decline is that Russia rarely uses vehicles except for their attacks in Marinka and south of that city, as has been observed. Russia’s equipment shortage is already impacting their operations.

Donations to all the Ukrainian units remain exceptionally important. Constantine bought two excavators that are now working in Kursk. Right now they are focusing on bunkers behind the lines and protective positions for artillery. Constantine is trying to buy this truck which can carry the small excavators and place them on the ground in 5-7 minutes. The small excavators then move into the woods to begin their work while they are concealed by trees. Speed is extremely important in transporting and unloading the excavator because it reduces the window of vulnerability in which a Russian drone can observe them and later direct attacks on the equipment and the men operating it.