Don's Weekly, 26 August 2024: Part 1
Hello everybody!
It’s Monday, we’ve got a very busy week behind us, and thus it’s time for Don’s weekly summary.
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Bryansk
The strength of Russian attacks is based on the endless waves of meat assaults that wear down Ukrainian defenses over time. In order to sustain the wave attacks they need to concentrate a lot of people. While Russia has a lot of people, their supply of manpower has limits and they decided to concentrate their forces in Ukraine while thinly defending their international borders with Ukraine.
Incursions by Free Russian forces and other non-Ukrainian forces over the months showed how thinly defended the international border was, but these units were too small to be able to sustain operations in Russia for long periods of time. Russia could tolerate these incursions since they were forced to withdraw after a short period of time. The border raids did provide Ukraine with more information on Russian defenses and response times, though.
The offensive in Kursk was a different matter. Not only has the invasion embarrassed Russia, it forced them to divert thousands of troops to just contain Ukrainian advances. It will require thousands more if they hope to actually push Ukraine out of Kursk. Russia can’t be strong everywhere, it has to choose where it wants to push. Whether Russia chooses to try and push Ukraine out of Kursk or not, Kursk is limiting the choices Russia has.
It also demonstrated that Ukraine was willing to cross the border, which means Russia will need to divert more troops to the international border or risk another invasion at a different location by Ukrainian troops. Two weeks ago, Ukrainian troops skirmished at a border checkpoint in Belgorod. Last week Russia said they clashed with 19 Ukrainian soldiers in Bryansk and repelled them on the border at Zabrama, about 35 km from the Belarus border.
Russia has to choose if they want to prevent another Kursk or not.
Nothing is as good in System Putin as some propaganda-nonsense: 60 km northwest of the fighting in Kursk, a column of Russian tanks travells like on a parade and then fires on an abandoned Ukrainian customs house at Bachevsk across the international border.
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Kursk- Glushkovo Sector
When, two weeks ago, the 225th Assault Battalion of the Ukrainian Army run its raid to Korenevo, back on 6-7 August, it cut off all vehicular traffic between Glushkovo and the territory north of Korenevo. Last week Ukraine took Krasnooktyabrskoe on the Seym river, eliminating the possibility of infantry traffic between those two areas. Ukrainian forces are on the outskirts of Serpovka and were beaten back at Sadovoye Tovarishchestvo with losses. Sherpovka has a 50 meter wide stream in front of it and south to the border is a series of wide fields and small streams. It might be difficult for Ukraine to advance without sufficient fire support and anti-UAV defences.
Ukraine is still pushing on Tyotkino from the south and they crossed the Seym river north of Tyotkino. What is unknown is the size of the force that crossed, whether the road between Tyotkino and Karyzh is cut off and if the force is establishing permanent positions there or was already withdrawn.
With the three road bridges across the Seym (at Karyzh, Zvannoe and Glushkovo) destroyed or heavily damaged, over the last 10 days the Russians have built at least seven pontoon bridges. All have been destroyed, although one is submerged and can support foot traffic. Some have been rebuilt. There may be other sites that have not been released on video in either a working or destroyed state. These bridges are the only way Russia can keep an estimated 3,000 men and equipment supplied or allow them to withdraw to the north.
Russia has EW systems in the area to jam GPS signals (which reduces the accuracy of GMLRS and other GPS-guided weapons) and jam radio signals (which renders drones inoperable). There is also a BUK air defense system in the area, but the videos show that enough missiles and drones are able to function and destroy Russian bridging efforts time and again. Russia recently reinforced this sector so they may be inclined to fight to keep it but the terrain, specifically the Seym river, favors Ukraine. It is a smaller version of Kherson in that the river makes it difficult to support Russian forces on the southern side. If Ukraine does not break through, Russia may decide to eventually withdraw. Like Kherson, there would then be an opportunity for Ukraine to destroy a significant amount of Russian forces because withdrawals under enemy pressure is difficult, and withdrawals across rivers are a lot harder.
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This Russia post claims that Ukraine does not control Krasnooktabrskoe. To prove it, they show a video of a Russian drone attacking Ukrainians inside the village.
Tetkino was bombed by the Ukrainian air force.
ith the three fix bridges in the Glushkovo sector destroyed or damaged, the Russians are using PMP pontoon bridges to supply their troops. The Ukrainians are all the time trying to find and destroy them, resulting in a situation that is so fluid it is difficult to keep track of all pontoon crossing sites. Some are reused after a bridge is destroyed. Some are at least partially functional after being sunk in a shallow portion of the river. Another destroyed pontoon site.
In this video, vehicles carrying the bridging equipment are attacked before they could be deployed. The site is marked on the map (51.380620536436055, 34.62273319083286). Nearby, there are two different pontoon crossings (and a destroyed vehicle) within 500 meters of each other and also marked on the map. After the one on the right was sunk, the submerged pontoon in the shallow river could still support foot traffic. In this video the surrounding ground is scorched from the attack that sunk that bridge. Of the two vehicles, the drone strikes the one with the EW jammer on the roof. Two Russians run across the sunken bridge on foot.
A view from the ground: In this direction, the “Pontoon Equipment Destroyed” location is less than 500 meters away. In this direction, 3400 meter away is the down Glushkovo bridge. There’s not a lot of cover or concealment out here.
The damaged bridge at Karyzh could not support heavy vehicles so they built a pontoon bridge alongside it.
(….to be continued…)
Being a combat engineer in Kursk is as dangerous as being a mobik in Donbas.
Thanks for this report Don