Don's Weekly, 25 September 2023, Part 3

Diplomacy

Grain Conflict

Russia's attacks on Ukraine's ports forced them to ship their grain overland. Some of that grain never left their neighboring countries and the influx of grain lowered prices for these country's farmers that were trying to sell their own harvests. In May, the EU banned the sale of Ukrainian grain in those countries to prevent the countries from establishing their own individual bans. The EU ban expired a week ago and Poland, Slovakia and Hungary imposed their own restrictions. Their bans still allow Ukraine's grains to transit their countries. Romania said they will work with Ukraine to resolve these issues over the next 30 days. Bulgaria voted to end the EU bans.

Poland objected to remarks by Zelensky and fired back with some of their own. Poland also reportedly threatened to end the aid of Ukrainian refugees and the shipment of equipment to Ukraine (see below for a Polish explanation). A planned meeting between Duda and Zelensky in the US was cancelled. Ukraine says they might ban some Polish products being sold in Ukraine. Also, agriculture contributes 2.1% to Poland's GDP in 2022 and there are elections in Poland in October...https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/poland-summons-ukrainian-ambassador-over-zelenskiy-comments-2023-09-20/

Then Ukraine and Poland agreed to work it out...

https://twitter.com/NOELreports/status/1704796292784820563

...and yet Zelensky is told never to insult Poland again...

https://twitter.com/nexta_tv/status/1705300498125881550

This post in Polish can be auto-translated and provides a Polish explanation that Poland will stop sending equipment to Ukraine...

https://twitter.com/wolski_jaros/status/1704754069674266830

And a Ukrainian opinion...https://www.facebook.com/butusov.yuriy/posts/pfbid0nom5iCUvmqo1otsRhLhracaVTeK7R1gXtuLmvjpLzV6A6ndQVTaH2NCGyiAQ82Fjl

A third party opinion on whether Poland has legal standing to deny Ukrainian grain sales and what is actually going on...

https://twitter.com/Carl_Rehnberg2/status/1704497121821331670

Slovakia and Ukraine will create a licensing system for grain. Until it is created, the ban on Ukrainian grain remains...

https://twitter.com/NOELreports/status/1704802677287195061

Nagorno-Karabakh

The Republic of Artsakh (the Armenian name for Nagorno-Karabakh) is not recognized by any country, including Armenia; however, for the past 30 years international mediators and human rights organizations have made reference to the right of self-determination for the indigenous Armenian population. Since the Second Nagorno-Karabakh War in 2020, Azerbaijan no longer promises any special status or autonomy to its ethnically Armenian residents.They have told the residents to accept Azerbaijani rule as Azerbaijani citizens or leave.

With the fall of the Russian empire in 1917, Azerbaijan and Aremenia began to fight over several provinces, including the Nagorno-Karabakh Region (NKR). Both of those nations were overcome by Bolshevik forces and as part of the Soviet Union, NKR remained part of Azerbaijan but was given regional autonomy. As the Soviet Union started to fall apart, the Armenians of NKR accused Azerbaijan of Azerfication and petitioned Moscow to be named part of Armenia. Violence began in 1988. In 1989, Armenia SSR declared that NKR was under their control and Azerbaijan SSR removed the provinces autonomous rule, placing it under their control. In 1991, a full-scale war broke out. Both sides used Russian and Ukrainian mercenaries. 2500 mujahadeen fought for Azerbaijan and Moscow provided Armenia heavy artillery and tanks. A cease-fire left Armenia in control of 14% of Azerbaijani lands but low-level fighting continued over the years.

Azerbaijan used money from its emerging oil industry to fund its army and launched a new war, with widespread use of drones, from September 27 to November 10th in 2020. The one-sided conflict ended with a decisive Azerbaijani victory and a cease-fire  was signed by Armenia, Azerbaijan and Russia. Azerbaijan regained control of 1/3 of NKR and all other Azerbaijani lands. NKR was connected to Armenia by a single road protected by Russian peacekeepers.

In December, 2022, Azerbaijan blockaded this road and the Russian peacekeepers did nothing. By August, shelves in NKR were bare, malnourishment was widespread and a former International Criminal Court prosecutor called the blockade an ongoing genocide. Armenia recognized Azerbaijan's power and conceded that NKR was Azerbaijani but insisted on guarantees for the ethnic Armenicans living there. Azerbaijan said all their citizens received equal protection, yet Azerbaijan's president calls the separatists dogs and the government issued a stamp in 2020 featuring a split image of a soldier and a man in a decontamination suit. Russian peacekeepers refused to halt any Azerbaijani actions, Aremenia publically regretted counting on Russia to protect their political goals, and Belarus said Azerbaijan had better relations with the Russian-led CSTO alliance than Armenia even though Azerbaijan wasn't in the alliance.

You'll need a diagram to figure out all the foreign relations:

-The Collective Security Treaty Organizaion (CSTO) is, on paper, similar to NATO in which  Armenia, Belarus, Kazakhstan, Krygyzstan and Russia agreed in 2002 to protect each other. They've put peacekeepers on the Krygyzstan-Tajikistan border after a skirmish there, and deployed 2,000 troops in Kazakhstan when it had internal unrest. As both Russia and Armenia are members of the CSTO, Aremenia expected Russia to protect Armenia and its interests in NKR. In the 2020 war, Russia did limit Azerbaijani advances. Since the war in Ukraine, they have done little to hinder Azerbaijan and Russian-Aremenian relations are at an all-time low.

-Georgia, Ukraine, Azerbaijan and Moldova formed the GUAM group in 1997, largely seen to counter Russian influence in the area.

-Azerbaijan and Turkey consider themselves "one nation, two states" with a shared Turkish culture. Turkey supports Azerbaijan in it's conflict with NKR and Armenia and has provided weapons and trained with Azerbaijan since the 2020 war.

-Israel was one of the first nations to recognize Azerbaijani independence. It provided 27-69% of Azerbaijan's weapons over the years, buys 40% of its oil there and has ties to the 30,000 Mountain Jews, who have been living there for 1,500 years.

-France, India and Iran are developing closer ties to Armenia and promised to defend their nation.

-The EU replaced much of its oil and gas imports from Russia with those from Azerbaijan. The EU was going to condemn Azerbaijan's actions last week but Hungary wouldn't let them. Aremenia said that it was a mistake to rely on Russia for security and is looking towards the EU.

-Russia has a military base in Armenia and provided it with heavy weapons. It's peacekeepers limited Azerbaijan's military in the past but Russian-Armenian relations have soured since the invasion of Ukraine and Russia's inattention to NKR's security. After Armenia said counting on Russia for security was a mistake and that it would be looking to the EU, Russia reacted with harsh words and indifference towards Azerbaijan's actions.

Last Tuesday, Azerbaijan said they gave Moscow notice of their action and fired on separatist military positions. They also killed several Russian peacekeepers, including the deputy commander but later apologized to Russia. After a day-long assault, the separatists soon surrendered and Russia said that they were not aware of any violations. Armenia said Moscow did not provide them with advance notice of Azerbaijan's intentions. Tom Cooper provides the details of the assault.

Many observers around the world are concerned about the 100,000 ethnic Armenians in NKR...https://www.politico.eu/article/nagorno-karabakh-conflict-azerbaijan-armenia-south-caucasus-russia/..https://www.politico.eu/article/azerbaijan-advance-nagorno-karabakh-conflict-armenia-military-offensive/..

https://twitter.com/NOELreports/status/1704922432832733543

Armenians protest against Russia at its embassy in Yerevan...

https://twitter.com/nexta_tv/status/1705277475331207262

An Azerbaijani strike on the Russian peacekeeping base in NKR on September 19th...

https://twitter.com/Tendar/status/1705502439170875602

Aremenia says this Azerbaijani stamp reflects soldiers disinfecting NKR. Azerbaijan says it commemorates two major events in 2020, the fight in KBR and the fight against the Corona virus...https://jam-news.net/postage-stamp-karabakh-war-armenia-azerbaijan-news/

The deputy of Russia's Duma said that eventually, all of the former Soviet republics will be under Russian political control or they will be in a war with Russia...https://m.censor.net/ua/news/3443780/deputat_derjdumy_rf_zayavyv_scho_rosiya_voyuvatyme_z_usima_postradyanskymy_respublikamy

OSCE

The Organization for Security and Cooperation in Europe (OSCE) cannot function because Russia has veto power and uses it to block the adoption of a budget or the appointment of the next head of the organization. This is similar to Russia's veto power over UN security issues. As a result, organizations such as the EU and NATO have filled the void with security actions and aid...https://www.ft.com/content/9e91b04a-1153-4bc5-9e5c-5f17521a46c3?shareType=nongift&fbclid=IwAR029gTNbaoanLBguG7qweIKq3U9pfaTdx7Kw4q_--JqChctNBhB7OwWxSg

Hungary, being Hungary, says new sanctions against Russia will hurt Europe...

https://twitter.com/KyivIndependent/status/1705747047960268887

Gripen

The Czech Republic is talking with Sweden about training Ukrainian pilots on the Gripen in their territory...

https://twitter.com/NOELreports/status/1705317793111867841

Romania

Romania had a no fly zone within 8 km of it's border with Ukraine. Russian drones came closer than that and also landed in Romania. Romania has now extended the no fly zone to 20-30 km and will shoot down any aircraft in this zone. This restriction does not apply to non-military aircraft...https://www.kyivpost.com/post/21653

EU

The EU is negotiating with Ukraine over its future membership...

https://twitter.com/NOELreports/status/1705317789160915220

Sudan

Wagner forces are most active in Central African Republic (CAR), Libya, Mali, and Sudan. They are paid in cash or control of concessions, such as unlimited logging or gold mines. They are also working with rebeles in Chad to overthrow its government, and have moved supplies through Chad to support the Rapid Support Force that is fighting for control of Sudan. Income from these ventures augment Russia's economy that is suffering from the effects of sanctions.

In Sudan, a series of drone strikes against Rapid Support Force troops have been linked to Ukraine. Ukraine said in the past that they would attack their enemies wherever they find them in the world as the opportunities arise but will not confirme that they were behnd the drone attacks...

...https://www.cfr.org/in-brief/what-russias-wagner-group-doing-africa

UN

French Minister of Foreign Affairs Catherine Colonna said of Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov to the UN Security Council: "He sat for a short time, came, gave his speech, as always full of lies, and then left," she said...

https://twitter.com/NOELreports/status/1704806359907156421

Russian Fires

The head of Ukrainian intelligence explains the purpose of the drone attacks in Russia...

https://twitter.com/RALee85/status/1705286725340107082

After three explosions, the lights went out in Tula...

https://twitter.com/NOELreports/status/1704947222503145599

And...

https://twitter.com/FreudGreyskull/status/1704962695773270242

In Russian-occupied Melitopal, the 58th CAA staff  suffered ten killed and several dozen wounded...

https://twitter.com/NOELreports/status/1704832343268118980

1000 km from Ukraine, there was a big explosion in Kazan...

https://twitter.com/PStyle0ne1/status/1705331378122842401

Fires in Kursk again...

https://twitter.com/Tendar/status/1705887054964347068

FSB and oil structure at Kursk was hit...

https://twitter.com/bayraktar_1love/status/1706010076924821632

The DPR administrative building in occupied Donetsk burned...

https://twitter.com/Damien94475559/status/1703807213267992796

On the Pacific coast town of Magadan, someone didn't want to be recruited...

https://twitter.com/FreudGreyskull/status/1705248735046037936

A shopping center in Moscow. Did this happen before 2022?..

https://twitter.com/FreudGreyskull/status/1704952616319693255

PhysTechCity residence in Moscow was on fire...

https://twitter.com/FreudGreyskull/status/1703732240256311758

Two planes and a helicopter were blown up near Moscow...

https://twitter.com/FreudGreyskull/status/1704572387168239710

Oil storage fire in Sochi...

https://twitter.com/FreudGreyskull/status/1704338507702100238

Two trucks that supposedly have bulletproof vests and night vision devices are burned...

https://twitter.com/FreudGreyskull/status/1703854334214295714

Misc.

I meant to add this interview with a Ukrainian artillery commander last week...

A report from a soldier of Ukraine's 59th Brigade on their disasterous experiences in the south before and shortly after the Russians crossed the border between occupied Crimea and southern Ukraine...https://www.facebook.com/butusov.yuriy/posts/pfbid0ubgVVDp1QMkER7e6tZtPwzC8oTAU9f7akSnwiGe5Qu9J5eF1E7utcvAvhr6uQrECl

A Ukrainian sniper's thoughts on snipers...

https://twitter.com/Y_Chornomorets/status/1705574248880693409

A Storm Shadow cruise missile flies by...

https://twitter.com/Osinttechnical/status/1704137688687739139

A Russian cruise missile over Kremechug...

https://twitter.com/3_bm15/status/1705292052450214187

An Su-34 is destroyed in a non-combat accident in Russia...

https://twitter.com/FreudGreyskull/status/1704566382166425635

At an unknown location, accurate artillery hits Russian trenches, killing and burying soldiers...

https://twitter.com/markito0171/status/1705117175080423720

25 geolocated Russian air defense systems destroyed since June 1st...

https://twitter.com/Orion__int/status/1705629672497979731

/photo/1

There have been 15,000 amputations in Ukraine during the first half of 2023...

https://twitter.com/OrlaGuerin/status/1704930788326904241

30% of Ukrainian territory is potentially threatened by mines. As soon as an area is liberated, it is surveyed and demining of populated areas begins. Ukraine has removed 430,000 mines so far...

https://twitter.com/NOELreports/status/1704790790814179466

Putin in the early '90s...

https://twitter.com/nexta_tv/status/1705933520340738268

/video/3

If you want to conduct a genocide, this is the woman for you...

https://twitter.com/Gerashchenko_en/status/1705976667670245873

A Russian recruiting video tries to sell the war as a real estate opportunity when so many end up underneath plots of ground...

https://twitter.com/yarotrof/status/1703762022582612247

Russian stores that used to sell western goods are shuttered and signs on the doors blame it on technical reasons. Flights are delayed due to the threat of Ukrainian drones are also due to technical reasons. Most residents of Moscow chose not to vote in a pre-determined election for the mayor. A pensioner stopped buying red meat and cannot afford a whole fish due to rising prices. When asked to list the greatest problems facing Russia today, more than half the citizens said price increases. At 29 percent each, the next biggest threats was tied between the special military operation and corruption. "Barbie" is shown in underground bootleg showings, and theaters regularly run films that premiered more than five years ago due to licensing issues and new laws that forbid mentioning LGBTQ people.

A statue of Felix Dzerzhinsky, founder of the political police, was just inaugurated last week. His original statue was torn down in 1991. The trains still run on time, but the announcements that used to be spoken first in Russian and then repeated in English are now just repeated twice in Russia. Any talk crticizing the war in public spaces is stifled due to strangers informing on them to the police.

Olga didn't talk to the reporter in public but messaged him on Telegram later: “I couldn’t say anything, because at work they don’t talk about a position like mine,” she wrote. “I am against war and I hate our political system.” When there is a drone strike inside Russia, she said, “I always hope that maybe someone will think about what it means to live under shelling, and regret the loss of our normal life before the war.” She said that if the explosions do not cause casualties, then “I don’t regret damage to the buildings at all.”

Another person said that even if changes on Moscow’s surface were hard to see, and increasingly harder to discuss, people were truly transforming inside.

“People are starting to return to the Soviet practice, when public conversations can lead to trouble at work,” he said. “It’s like toxic poisoning — a very slow process.”..https://www.nytimes.com/2023/09/16/world/europe/moscow-russia-mood-war.html?te=1&nl=the-morning&emc=edit_nn_20230918

This has been said many times but is repeated here: Given the weapons that Ukraine does and does not have, it has no choice but to fight small unit actions and grind down the Russia army...

https://twitter.com/solonko1648/status/1704568690082013400

Pepsi still operates in Russia. Their taxes paid for the missile that destroyed their warehouse in Ukraine...

https://twitter.com/DefenceU/status/1704784431813111822

Growing up to die in Pskov...

https://twitter.com/nexta_tv/status/1705267287102550461

/photo/1

Symbols and Culture

Reply of the Zaporozhian Cossacks, also known as Cossacks of Saporog Are Drafting a Manifesto and Cossacks are Writing a Letter to the Turkish Sultan, is a painting by Ilya Repin. After the Ottoman Empire was defeated by the Zaporozhian ("beyond the rapids") Cossacks, the Sultan Mehmed IV demanded that the Cossacks submit to him. This painting is meant to depict the legend of the Cossacks replying an insulting letter in 1676 while enjoying the vulgarities within the letter. The leader Taras Bulba and his son are represented in the painting. Those two and twelve other figures in the painting were modeled by Repin's contemporaries who ranged from coachmen, students and professors to generals, singers, and historians. The Grand Chamberlain refused to be a model so Repin sketched the back of his head while he was looking at an exhibit of prints. When the painting was produced, the Chamberlain recognized the back of his bald head, front and center, and was not pleased, but by that time the painting was part of the imperial collection, bought by the Czar for a fortune.

This painting (above) was completed in 1891 and is in the State Russian Museum in St. Petersburg. In 1889, Repin began a second version trying to make it more historically authentic. This second painting was never finished and is stored in the Kharkiv Art Museum...https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Reply_of_the_Zaporozhian_Cossacks

After seeing this modern recreation by the 112th TD Brigade, I've been able to find many more on the internet...

https://twitter.com/DefenceU/status/1704980636413391183

One example...https://www.reddit.com/r/ukraine/comments/t2ryu0/ukrainian_soldiers_recreating_the_famous_reply_of/

This is a 13 minute video that provides a brief history of Repin but mostly focuses on the 19th century issues of nationalism and the images and legends of Cossacks that were embraced by both Russia and Ukraine at the time. The original letters between Mehmet IV and the Cossacks were lost, but copies were written down a hundred years later, for what that's worth, and those copies are also read in the video. The Cossack reply is fitting for a Russian warship and the narrator read it in hopes that he wasn't going to be violating the terms and conditions of YouTube...