Don's Weekly, 25 September 2023, Part 1

Hello everybody!

I’m a little bit late with it, but here you are: Don’s Weekly for the last seven days!

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Overview

Ukraine says that the minimum standard for success of the southern offensive is the capture of Tokmak. They do not put a time limit on the offensive. For one thing, there is less precipitation in the southern half of the country, and for another, snow and mud effect vehicles more than infantry and most of their operations are based on dismounted infantry. Weather will not stop the offensive.

Also, the Black Sea fleet headquarters in Sevastopol was attacked during a high-level meeting. Nine Russian were killed, including the commander of the Black Sea fleet, and 16 were wounded, including the commander of the ground forces around Robotyne. Because of the ongoing successful attacks in Crimea, the Russian navy is pulling back to Novorossiysk.

Ukraine is slowly pushing forward in Bakhmut and Robotyne.

Western Luhansk

14 km southwest of Svatove, four Russian tanks and three IFVs were destroyed after a Russian attack. 49.344496, 37.939034..

https://twitter.com/UAWeapons/status/1704052803251913100

Video of the same location...

https://twitter.com/bayraktar_1love/status/1704833676545032203

Nearby, a Russian BMP is destroyed by a drone.48.504126, 37.993468..

https://twitter.com/Osinttechnical/status/1705767190304026729

A Ukrainian warehouse in Lyman is hit by an airstrike. 48.967392, 37.805032..

https://twitter.com/3_bm15/status/1703809234041802760

A collaborator survived an assassination attempt in Kreminna...

https://twitter.com/FreudGreyskull/status/1704234476161929484

Bakhmut

There is an unconfirmed Russian rumor that Gerasimov wants to retreat from Bakhmut but isn't allowed to do so. This would make sense. In ideal conditions, you want to fight on terrain that gives you advantages and disadvantages your opponent. In the months-long battle for Bakhmut, Ukraine was able to hold the line and cause serious Russian casualties until a substandard Ukrainian brigade collapsed north of the city and Ukraine's reaction to the collapse was poorly managed, resulting in a Russian advance to Soledar and beyond. Russian casualties in Bakhmut itself were heavy, initially making it good terrain to hold against Russia. However, as Russia continued to advance on the northern and southern flanks of Bakhmut and the routes into the city came under Russian fire control, Ukrainian casualties started to rise and they continued to hold on to Bakhmut longer than it made military sense to do so.

Soon after losing the city, the 3rd Assault Brigade started to advance south of Bakhmut, grinding up Russian brigades as they did so, with few casualties of their own. As other Ukrainian units joined in on the slow advance, Russian losses mounted. Ukraine made small advances in the north, nothing spectacular, but it kept the pressure on Russia. In the center, Ukraine moved to the edge of the city but did not try to move into, because fighting in a city gives an advantage to the defender. Ukraine is keeping the fight for the city on the outside where it has advantages, knowing Russia is politically compelled to hold onto it even if it makes no sense militarily. In fact, in the counter-attack towards Klishchiivka and Andriivka the Russians expended not one, but three brigades.

This is the fight that Ukraine wants. It's fighting under favorable conditions and the positive results are creating even more favorable conditions. If, at some point, this trend continues and the Russians in Bakhmut are cut off, or decide to retreat before they are cut off, that would also be a good result. But a more important result is the destruction of Russian units, in particular, the better trained units. Because the untrained units don't counter-attack very well. They hold the line, and if they are pushed out the better-trained units counter-attack to regain lost positions. As the casualties mount among the better-trained Russian units, their counter-attacks become less effective, Ukraine holds on to more of their advances and Russia loses more troops. It's a cycle that spins in Ukraine's favor.

In this context, past anonymous comments from US officials to focus only the south make no sense. The Russian army has bigger mobility and command and control issues than Ukraine does, so a single point of defense would be to their advantage. In attritional warfare, you want to destroy more of your enemy than you lose, and this is happening in Bakhmut. The Russians pulled troops out of the Bakhmut sector to reinforce the Robotyne sector, which made it easier for Ukraine to attack in the Bakhmut sector. If Ukraine continues to advance in this sector under favorable circumstances there is no need to stop. Any reinforcements directed to Bakhmut are reinforcements that aren't going to Robotyne.

In an interview, Budanov confirmed the obvious and said that Ukraine will only attack the city once it is cut off from supplies, and that all the Russian troops killed at Bakhmut will not be able to reinforce Robotyne...https://www.thedrive.com/the-war-zone/exclusive-interview-with-ukraines-spy-boss-from-his-dc-hotel-room

Another Russian 240mm mortar is destroyed 6.5 km east of Bakhmut. This weapons takes 25 minutes to set up, fires at a rate of one round per minute and had a range of almost 10 km. The closer a weapon is to the front line, the easier it is to detect it, in this case by Shark done, which provided the coordinates for a GMLRS round. 48.56579043237018, 38.11936825755862..

https://twitter.com/fredi0815/status/1704025751123636437

Ukraine says there is progress inside Kurdyumivka...

https://twitter.com/NOELreports/status/1704809973128085805

Incapacitated Russian vehicles are destroyed...

https://twitter.com/NOELreports/status/1705297017285533733

Russian Storm Z infantry harassed to death by a drone dropping grenades...

https://twitter.com/GloOouD/status/1705314088971112787

A Ukrainian casualty is evacuated under Russian shellfire...

https://twitter.com/FreudGreyskull/status/1703869831685324879

5 km southeast of Kurdyumivka, a Russian BMP is destroyed by a 155mm SMArt shell. 48.43492, 38.01517...

https://twitter.com/Osinttechnical/status/1705724976446214648

Mokri Yaly Valley

Heavy shelling and bombing pushed Ukraine back from the east and west of Novomaiorske but they're still in the northern part of the village. Aside from demining efforts and attrition by artillery and drones, there seems to be little movement elsewhere.

16 km south of Pryiutne, a 220mm MLRS is destroyed. 47.573295807322836, 36.6887763458147..

https://twitter.com/NOELreports/status/1704827469260276180

10 km southeast of Novomaiorske, a 203mm SP artillery piece is destroyed.47.625694, 37.174278...

https://twitter.com/bayraktar_1love/status/1704983786948116930

20 km southwest of Zavitne Bazhannia a 220mm MLRS is destroyed. 47.573126, 36.688307...

https://twitter.com/bayraktar_1love/status/1704811527159554289

Robotyne

Russian counter-attacks slowed the Ukrainian advances but Ukraine has twice the artillery in this sector than they did a couple of weeks ago and Russian casualties are higher because of it. Two regiments have already been rotated to the rear because of losses. For Ukraine, mines are still an issue and the Russian air force continues to bomb their supply roads. Still, they're pushing the Russians out of Verbove from west to east, they're moving into Novoprokopivka from the north and east, and they're once again moving into the hills on the ridgeline between the two villages.

Ukrainian infantry is pushed back by artillery and Russian paratroopers.  47.4226179,35.9314580..

https://twitter.com/moklasen/status/1703850381820768516

(Meanwhile, and as reported yesterday, ZSU is well inside northern and north-eastern Novoprokopivka. Especially north-east of this village is important, because it’s on a higher elevation than the rest of it.)

A 122mm Russian self-propelled gun is hit by a drone. The force of the blast blows something on top of the protective top cage. All four crew members abandon the moving vehicle which is later destroyed by a second drone...

https://twitter.com/GloOouD/status/1704104917487554996

More videos of Russian POWs are surfacing. I have no idea how many are surrendering on a weekly basis. There are brief moments of thermal imagery of a Ukrainian assault and small moments of gunfire, but mostly it is about the handling of prisoners. The English auto-translate only works here and there...

Marders and Strykers conduct an assault...

https://twitter.com/moklasen/status/1704620018569531469

The first confimed loss of a Marder. The ability to repair it is unknown...

https://twitter.com/Artur_Micek/status/1705075496298439152

A report that Ukraine has taken the hills southwest of Verbove and that disorganized Russian attacks were beaten back and two of these attacks included Russian artillery firing on their own troops. 47.429625675234405, 35.82900657215042..

https://twitter.com/Artur_Micek/status/1705073900932018322

Ukrainian infantry being shelled by artillery while evacuating a wounded comrade. 47.4342, 35.9437...

https://twitter.com/moklasen/status/1704845309480767598

More shelling of Ukrainian infantry west of Verbove. 47.419023, 35.925853...

https://twitter.com/moklasen/status/1704622483314282854

A pro-Russian channel says that Ukraine is in Verbove and threatening to surround the Russian troops there...

https://twitter.com/FreudGreyskull/status/1705679851666157818

Russian tank was destroyed in Novoprokopivka...

https://twitter.com/teoyaomiquu/status/1704277447783469174

Two Ukrainians are killed on the northern edge of Novoprokopivka. 47.417200, 35.843327...

https://twitter.com/Damien94475559/status/1705863084298965040

While trying to assault the 47th Brigade, a Russian tanks runs over its own mines and Russian artillery hit their own infantry...

https://twitter.com/PrzemekShura/status/1705115457882087899

A captured BMP-3 is used in a Ukrainian assault near Novoprokopivka...

https://twitter.com/GloOouD/status/1704374809138749818

2.5 km southwest of Novoprokopivka, and observation tower is hit by DPICM. 47.3929814, 35.7939237...

https://twitter.com/bayraktar_1love/status/1705962394697056257

19 km southwest of Tokmak, a P-18-2 radar is deatroyed. 47.167095,35.467449...

https://twitter.com/bayraktar_1love/status/1704954141238256117

(to be continued….)