Don's Weekly, 25 March 2024: Part 1

Good morning everybody!

The last seven days, units of the Groups Zapad and Tsentr of the Russian Armed Forces (VSRF) - quickly ‘re-built’ through addition of mobik-staffed regiments - were attacking north-west of Bakhmut and west of Avdiivka with really everything at their disposal. It is on hand that this is not only related to Pudding’s ‘elections’, but also the rush to exercise as much pressure as possible, and grab as much terrain as possible, before somebody in the West finally comes to his/her senses and starts re-supplying Ukraine in serious fashion.

Still critically short on artillery ammunition (the Czech-found and EU & Canada-financed ‘800,000+’ artillery shells are unlikely to reach the country before June), Ukrainians defended with everything at their disposal. Primarily FPVs and mortars. The result was a seemingly endless series of bitter battles, with - before this war - ‘weird’ scenes, like multiple Russian assault groups being swarmed by dozens of Ukrainian mini-drones.

***

Kharkiv

A Ukrainian laser-guided air defense system is destroyed 15 km from the Russian border near Belgorod…

https://twitter.com/EjShahid/status/1771517202098774488

Between Sumy and Kharkiv on the Russian border, a Ukrainian vehicle is stuck in a bomb crater and destroyed by a drone…

https://twitter.com/EjShahid/status/1770001664147104210

***

Western Luhansk

Russia had been attacking towards Terny along two narrow forests. After they have reached the end of the woods, just outside Terny, Ukraine counterattacked and pushed them back 1 km. Russia lost 18 vehicles in the area last week.

Various Ukrainian thermal drone attacks around Terny against vehicles and infantry…

https://twitter.com/EjShahid/status/1771168448212558060

https://twitter.com/EjShahid/status/1770891652284010975

https://twitter.com/EjShahid/status/1770372889289658644

A Ukrainian tank from Sweden was immobilized in no man’s land. Since there is a bounty on recovering western equipment, two Russian tank recovery vehicles went to collect the heavier Ukrainian tank. Drones destroyed them…

https://twitter.com/front_ukrainian/status/1770125006531350686

***

Bakhmut

In addition to heavy artillery, drone and airstrikes, Russian conducted two large rocket attacks by helicopters. The Russians took the observation post overlooking Ivanivske, and they advanced down two treelines to within one kilometer of the canal district of Chasiv Yar.

A kilometer east of the canal district of Chasiv Yar, a Ukrainian position is attacked by a drone. The Russians now control this position…

https://twitter.com/EjShahid/status/1771202184438264313

Two of three Russian BMPs are destroyed by artillery 600 meters east of the canal district…

https://twitter.com/giK1893/status/1771865406346580256

South of Andriivka, terrain is an obstacle to Russian drivers…

https://twitter.com/giK1893/status/1770774574365319553

North of Bakhmut, the Russians sent six armored vehicles to attack the 54th Brigade. Drones, mines, artillery and mortar fire from the 54th and 118th brigades destroyed five of them and damaged a sixth. 42 Russians died. The 12 minute video is here.

North of Bakhmut, a Ukrainian position is attacked by a drone…

https://twitter.com/EjShahid/status/1770060219499860156

A Russian SP gun is knocked out…

https://twitter.com/giK1893/status/1767977394621603848

***

Avdiivka

Ukraine lost some vehicles while withdrawing from Tonenke and Orlivka and also from engaging the Russians around Stepove. The Russians lost even more vehicles and suffered heavy infantry losses. Russian airstrikes and artillery hit the Ukraine defenses across the Durna river.

Two T72s were knocked out on the same piece of ground by the 25th Airborne Brigade…

https://twitter.com/Osinttechnical/status/1770572108294148404

A large Russian assault group is picked apart by drones from the 47th Brigade…

https://twitter.com/GloOouD/status/1769980848986554527

A reunion on the battlefield is disturbed by a Ukrainian drone…

https://twitter.com/EjShahid/status/1769690167130869989

Russian infantry in Orlivka is hunted by drones…

https://twitter.com/giK1893/status/1771934109910106407

On the western edge of Tonenke, a Ukrainian drone watches two other drones attack a BMP, then attacks the BMP itself…

https://twitter.com/giK1893/status/1770952231103164609

GRAPHIC: This is from two weeks ago but shows an attacking BTR coming under fire from a Bradley, drones and mortars from the 47th Brigade…

https://twitter.com/francisjfarrell/status/1764174397147918344

***

Marinka

Russia has been unable to push west from Marinka, in part because of the small lake that divides their assault. Novomykhailivka beat off assaults from the north and south amid heavy bombardment. South of that village, Russia has been attacking Ukrainian positions with airstrikes and drones in preparation of future assaults to the west.

South of Novomykhailivka, two abandoned Russian tanks are destroyed…

https://twitter.com/giK1893/status/1771615827483107453

A column north of Novomykailivka is pummeled by Ukrainian artillery…

https://twitter.com/giK1893/status/1770455412917031026

***

Zaporizhzhia

North-west of Verbove, the Russians continue to slowly grind forward. This week they advanced 250-1000 meters over an 1800 meter front. There’s a report that Russia may have breached the thin perimeter and reached Robotyne with a small force. This would not be the first time and Ukraine has pushed them out each time so far. It is very difficult for Ukraine to evacuate their wounded and rotate troops because of the Russian drones. For their part, Russia suffers from Ukrainian drones.

Two Russians are hunted by drones. One uses a door frame to try and live…

https://twitter.com/EjShahid/status/1771554753333403882

Two of four Russian vehicles attack in Staromaiorske are destroyed by Javelins…

https://twitter.com/giK1893/status/1769889802034323820

***

Kherson

The Russians are complaining that the Ukrainian Marines are more active in their cross river raids.

A Russian infantryman is chased along the riverbank…

https://twitter.com/EjShahid/status/1771145632461242434

A Ukrainian radar was destroyed by a Lancet drone…

https://twitter.com/EjShahid/status/1770537656927097303

A Ukrainian mortar crew across the river from Krynky is shelled…

https://twitter.com/giK1893/status/1771958164855849183

Both sides use drones to drop mines in between the battle lines. The Ukrainians on the left bank of the Dnieper rely on their boats for survival, so the Russian drones drop mines into the river…

https://twitter.com/giK1893/status/1770970196057972828

A report on the Ukrainian logistics in this sector:

https://t.me/stanislav_osman/5401

Just hot bitter are Ukrainian Marines fighting there, and under what arduous circumstances, shows also the fact that some of their casualties there had to wait 13 days for an evacuation:

https://t.me/stanislav_osman/5402

A strike on a hanger at the Mykolaiv airport. An Su-25 was supposed to be inside…

https://twitter.com/giK1893/status/1770488877628731408

***

Crimea

Balbek Air base was hit by Storm Shadow/SCALP missiles resulting in 1 destroyed and 2 damaged SU-27s. The communications center there was also hit with 60 killed and wounded. A warehouse in Dzhankoy, a logistical base, was also hit, as was a communication centre of the Russian Armed Forces in Sevastopol…

https://twitter.com/bradyafr/status/1772000433953001775

Additionally, Ukrainians attempted to hit some of last Russian amphibious assault ships remaining in the Black Sea. While initially claiming to have hit and damaged two, the satellite photos show a damaged dock (at the top): the ship next to is likely to be moderately damaged. Another vessel is visible while being moved by tug boats: it is unlikely to be damaged…

https://twitter.com/Aviation_Intel/status/1771971180460912930?t=GZbeVobo8VipcwsKhffOIg

***

Russia

During a Baltic Sea naval exercise, the Russians sank one of their own trawlers. Three were killed and four wounded…

https://twitter.com/nexta_tv/status/1770872061444980743

Videos of the terrorist attack in Moscow here. Many on social media are gravitating to theories that it was a Russian false flag operation or a Ukrainian operation. At least 133 are dead.

On March 2, Russian security forces killed six Islamic State gunmen in the city of Karabulak in the Russian North Caucasus region of Ingushetia. At some point the US picked up on the threat of a terrorist attack and warned Russia. On March 7, the FSB said they stopped an Islamic State plot to attack a synagogue in the Kaluga region, killing ‘several’ and showing two bodies. Hours after that announcement, western governments warned people against attending public gatherings and Putin denounced the warnings as an attempt to intimidate Russians. The Islamic State claimed credit for the attack. Russia captured four gunmen that they identified as Tajikistani citizens and predictably said they were trying to escape to Ukraine…https://apnews.com/article/russia-moscow-krasnogorsk-gunmen-concert-hall-fire-97e321c3c477ece36d4fb32f50fa0e8a

In December, 2023, Russia said they quadrupled defense production. Incomplete data indicates there was only a modest increase. Some raw materials and components needed to be imported but the total amount would not support even a 50% increase in production. The electrical production and consumption needed to produce weapons also showed very little increase. Most of Russian production is the refurbishment of weapons sitting in open air storage sites and this is likely to remain true to the end of 2025, when they will run out of stored equipment…https://sites.tufts.edu/fletcherrussia/kremlin-exaggerates-production-of-russian-arms-manufacturing-in-2023/

While the large raid into Russia has subsided, Belgorod is still being periodically shelled. In this case, though, Russian air defense missiles were engaging Ukrainian drones and the booster rockets of the air defense missiles were falling from the sky and one impaled itself in a brick wall…

https://twitter.com/front_ukrainian/status/1769754564046016964

Former Wagner fighters have been fighting for Ukraine since October and they took part in the Russian raid…https://euromaidanpress.com/2024/03/21/ex-wagner-fighters-join-russian-volunteer-forces-battling-for-ukraine-on-russian-soil/

More fighting around Belgorod…

https://twitter.com/EjShahid/status/1770094289835397188

A drone attack on Russian infantry during the raid…

https://twitter.com/EjShahid/status/1769819572268364177

Northwest of Sumy, Ukrainian positions on the border are attacked by a drone…

https://twitter.com/EjShahid/status/1769739394712244312

An ammo depot in a warehouse is destroyed by a Ukrainian drone…

https://twitter.com/EjShahid/status/1769679717290889488

Inside Ukraine, RDK/Legion infantry is attacked by Russian artillery…

https://twitter.com/giK1893/status/1770980473281343743

Russia uses glide bombs on Russian houses…

https://twitter.com/giK1893/status/1770843655105843505

Now that Russia finally determined who won their election, it’s been decided to expand their army…

https://twitter.com/Gerashchenko_en/status/1771148405793853752

All of the refineries hit represent 30% of Russian production. These sites suffered only partial damage, not complete destruction, so some fraction of the 30% production is impacted. Also not quantified is how long the production will be reduced, whether it’s weeks, months or years. Sanctions will have some level of effect on repairs with regards to parts and foreign technical assistance, but when even a short-term 5% reduction would have a significant impact, these ongoing attacks will exceed that. At the beginning of March, Russia already suspended gasoline exports for six months to increase the domestic supply and lower the local prices to try and slow down the rate of inflation. These strikes will also impact the supply of oil products on the world market which should increase the price of energy for many nations…

https://twitter.com/poliitikasse/status/1769421908104131034

By selecting the two images you can see how the production of two oil products, gasoline and diesel, are faring in Russia. Different refineries produce different amounts of oil products…

https://twitter.com/delfoo/status/1769658055153602631

A five-drone attack on a refinery 700 km away, northeast of Moscow, failed…

https://twitter.com/front_ukrainian/status/1769616751866634728

A refinery in Samara was attacked 900 km …

https://twitter.com/Osinttechnical/status/1771438133063614571

https://twitter.com/bayraktar_1love/status/1771406099322634351

The electrical grid in Nizhny Novgorod was attacked…

https://twitter.com/EjShahid/status/1771979590824866301

Taganrog airbase was attacked but the details are absent…

https://twitter.com/EjShahid/status/1770795694833430777

A power plant in Rostov is attacked…

https://twitter.com/giK1893/status/1772075221568164008

(…to be continued…)