Don's Weekly, 25 August 2025: Part 3 (Russia, Ukraine, Diplomacy, Equipment)
by Donald Hill
(…continued from Part 2…)
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Kherson
Troops of the Russian 24th Motor Rifle Regiment near Oleshky are destroying their vehicles to sabotage deployment and there is an increasing number of cases of desertions and refusals to fight. Morale has plummeted due to their leadership orders causing high death rates, including being sent to positions that don’t have any jamming devices to protect against drones.
The Russians published a video of them attacking a civilian trying to fix his roof.
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Odesa
An oil depot belonging to an Azerbaijani company was attacked by drones on August 8th and August 17th.
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Crimea
Ukrainian forces attacked a fuel train in Dzhankoi. A Russian intelligence compound was hit in Sevastopal.
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Occupied Territories
Russia produced a propaganda film that showed Russian soldiers firing on civilian vehicles carrying elderly Ukrainians and children.
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Russia
Satellite images show that two pumping stations were destroyed at Unecha. An oil depot in the Tambov region was hit. The workers at the Novoshakhtinsk refinery in Rostov hadn’t been paid in four months and a Flamingo missile caused a fire that burned for at least three days. A pipeline-to-ship transfer facility in Ust Luga was hit.
The traction railway substation at Zhuravka (in the Voronezh region) and Millerovo (Rostov region) were attacked.
Mobile internet service signals can serve as navigation beacons for drones so Russia shuts them down during impending drone attacks. One downside is that its air defense units rely on them for communication and coordination. At the same time, it doesn’t seem to hinder the accuracy of Ukrainian drones.
Mass production of Shahed drones would not be possible without the 41+ critical components from Chinese suppliers. Alabuga is primarily an assembly plant that could not function without China, but China did congratulate Zelensky on the occasion of Independence Day.
Sanctions make life more difficult for Russian civilians and military, but the military industry will continue to be supported at the expense of civilian infrastructure and services. In Yekaterinburg the manhole cover in this street went missing over four months ago and freshly painted lines are drawn over potholes.
A Ukrainian naval drone was drifting in the bay of Novorossiysk. Five Russian divers approached it and were killed when it exploded.
Ever fewer Russians are volunterring for military by signing contracts and receiving bonuses, but the difference is being made up with personnel being arrested and signing contracts to drop the charges, or people being forced to sign contracts. When nothing else works, troops are kept in service against, once their original contract expires.
Also, the number of Russians reported as killed is declining but the number being reported as MIA is increasing. Most MIA on both sides are unconfirmed deaths.
Russia is building a large antenna in Kaliningrad, estimated as capable of detecting radio signals 7400 km away. In the event of a war with Russia NATO plans to quickly eliminate Russian capabilities in the Kaliningrad enclave.
The price of gasoline has been climbing since the beginning of the year. From August 2-15, eight refineries were hit. The attacks on refineries representing 11% of Russia’s production have increased the shortages and prices are at record highs. The prices on different grades of gas have increased 38% to 49%. Gas in Crimea is distributed by ration cards. In some regions, gas is only sold to businesses and organizations. Two towns near the Chinese border are totally without gas.
A MiG-29 being towed in Armenia had issues.
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Ukraine
Assault brigades are assigned to corps but assault regiments, such as the 1st, 210th, 225th, and 425th, are being used as ‘fire brigades’ and sent to wherever there is an emergency. Typically for Syrsky’s micormanagement, in the last month alone the 425th Assaiult Regiment has at least had battalion elements operating in Milove, Pokrovsk and now in between Pokrovsk and Komar.
The 147th Separate Artillery Brigade of the Airborne Assault Forces was created with Western artillery systems and will be subordinated to the 7th Corps.
Ukrainian armored brigades have been restructured into heavy mechanized brigades, as have four territorial defense brigades. Their internal organizations vary, but if there was a standard it might be two tank battalions, two mechanized battalions and two rifle battalions (note: from the point of view of top Ukrainian battalion- and brigade commanders, ‘rifle battalions’ are entirely useless on modern battlefield).
All but three corps have been assigned a heavy mechanized brigade. The 125th Territorial Defense Brigade is now the 125th Heavy Mechanized Brigade and was assigned to the 3rd Corps. The 127th Territorial Defense Brigade is now a heavy mechanized brigade in the 11th Corps. The tank brigades have been converted to heavy mechanized brigades and each corps has been assigned one heavy mechanized brigade except for the 12th, 14th and 19th Corps.
The 12th, 14th and 19th Corps will not have a heavy mechanized brigade unless additional are created… which is returning the ZSU to the yet another old problem from the last year: persistent weakening of existing units at the cost of establishing new ones…
A MiG-29 crashed while landing, killing the pilot.
Russia struck a Singapore-US-owned electronics factory with a missile.
For safety reasons, mass gatherings for Independence Day were banned but the Ukrainians gathered in Kharkiv anyway.
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Diplomacy
In November 2024, the Biden Administration, finally, finally lifted all restrictions on deployment of US weapons for long-range strikes into Russia. Since the last spring, the Trump administration is prohibiting Ukraine from hitting Russia with US-made weaponry, weaponry including US-made components, or on basis of intelligence provided by the USA. Trump’s hope was to entice Russia into peace talks. The more Ukraine produces its own weapons, such as their long-ranged drones and Flamingo missiles, the less this matters. Ukraine has little problem developing its own target list of Russian companies on the basis of its own intelligence.
Hungary’s foreign minister Peter Szijjarto claims that the attack on the Druzhba pipeline was an attack on his country’s energy security and another attempt to drag Hungary into the war. Poland’s deputy prime minister Radoslaw Sikorski responded:
- “Peter, you have as much solidarity from us as we have from you.”
Peter: “Believe me, I would never commit the mistake to think about you when it comes to solidarity.”
Radoslaw: “We both understand the diplomatic principle of reciprocity. BTW, it looks like the attack on the Russian oil pumping station was a Hungarian job. Bravo! For our freedom and yours!” (Since it was a drone attack and Robert “Magyar” Brovdi is both commander of Ukraine’s drones and an ethnic Hungarian…also, there is historical context to the phrase, “For our freedom and yours!”)
Before meeting Trump last week, Vance reportedly told Zelensky, “Mr. President, so long as you behave, I won’t say anything.” Vance also said allowing Ukraine to run its own government was a Russian concession. And Trump provides an example of his empathy for Ukraine’s children that were abducted by Russia.
Italy arrested a Ukrainian because Germany accused him of being one of at least five organising and coordinating the Nord Stream pipeline explosions.
Outgoing UK Chief of Defense Staff Admiral Radakin says that Putin doesn’t want a war with the 32 nations of NATO and that he can’t even win in Ukraine.
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Equipment
Last week the reports said that Ukraine was producing 50 Flamingo cruise missiles a month, each at a price of about $440,000. Subsequent reports say they’re currently producing one missile a day and plan to make seven a day by October. Russia is producing 3-4 Kalibr and Kh-101 missiles a day. Ukraine produces 100 FP-1 long-ranged drones a day at $55,000 per drone. Russia is making 170 Shahed/Geran drones per day at a cost of about $193,000 each.
Ukraine’s 27th Artillery Brigade was equipped with 220 mm BM-27 MLRS and HIMARS systems. Due to a lack of ammo and the end of their service life the BM-27s are being retired and the brigade will use 155 mm Bohdanas, which is now the most widespread self-propelled artillery system in Europe. Several other artillery units received Bohdanas in the last six months.
Raytheon plans to build AIM-120 air-to-air missiles in Belgium and the German Diehl Defence will produce Stinger missile components in Europe.
Drones are evolving so quickly that some are obsolete soon after creation. Standardization has to be matched with adaptability. NATO is working on standardizing battery packs of various shapes, sizes and functions. Standard user interfaces and payload modularity would also support higher production levels and still allows front line soldiers to modify and innovate.
The US is building the Future Artillery Complex to produce 432,000 155 mm shells a year in September 2029. It will reportedly be the most advanced explosive loading facility in the world employing 70 people.
The Biden administration canceled a program that would have succeeded the PAC-3 MSE in favor of upgrading it. The Trump administration is reinstating the Lower Tier Future Interceptor program. This will increase costs from $8 million to $152 million.
Faithfully continuing its practice for similar cases, the Pentagon has inflated the costs of 24 boats it sent to Ukraine, allowing itself to buy 33 boats to replace them.
The US Navy tested drones, including fiber-optic drones, in an electronic warfare environment.
Thanks for update. You are actually one of first serious sources, who claim about liberation of Kucheriv Yar, looks like they were pushed out rather than encircled(AFAIK russians were able to prevent physical encirclement), but it is very narrow salient. Additionally, have also a few questions:
1. What is state of FAB jamming now? Satelite photo show multiple hits on tree lines on main directions of Russian assault, but without knowing exact scales and positions of targets it is hard to say, do they hit using less precise inertial guidance or avoided jamming? What is effect of UMPK now?
2. What do you expect to be the efficiency of Flamingo missiles in case it reaches battlefield mass usage? From profile it has truly enormous dimensions, hence would it be able to go through Russian air defence?
3. Last weeks there are the bouncing news that Russian destroyed significant part of UA ballistic missiles program production sites? Nevertheless, besides my quite low faith in existence of serially produced Sapsan/Grom 2 at the moment, are there any other proofs, except bombing of poor Pavlograd and Shostka plants(last in 50 km from front), who were hitted dozens times during the war under guidance from recon UAV? Nothing important(except personel and documentation) would remain there to the end of first year, it would be either destroyed or transported, hence did Russians really find some other more secret objects?
4. Ukraine now actively invest into anti air drones against recon and now shaheds. What would be efficiency of such drones in winter, where weather conditions would worsen? Can anything be done to prevent the reduction of UA anti Shahed network efficient in that period?
Thanks Don, BTW at the Future Artillery Complex there is a strong Czech footprint while its going to be delivered by CSG https://www.czechtradeoffices.com/why-czech-republic/news/czechoslovak-group-has-signed-a-major-contract-with-the-us-department-of-defense
So seems we Czechs are securing artilery at both coasts of Atlantic ocean ;-)