Don's Weekly, 23 October 2023: Part 3
(….continued from Part 2…)
Equipment
RUSI and the Washington Post illustrate the tranfer of ammo from North Korea to Russia…https://rusi.org/explore-our-research/publications/commentary/report-orient-express-north-koreas-clandestine-supply-route-russia
1000 shipping containers is a month’s worth of artillery for Russia. "According to our calculations, Russia should still have around four million pieces of ammunition left. This [means they] could continue at the current relatively low intensity of [using] 10,000 rounds per day for just over a year," Kiviselg said…https://news.err.ee/1609139906/edf-colonel-russia-still-has-four-million-artillery-shells-left
The Ground Launch Small Diameter Bomb (GLSDB) is a 250 lbs./113 kg bomb with a range of 150 km and a cost of $40k. The M31 rocket used by HIMARS/MLRS cost $110k. In addition to GPS, it can also use laser guidance to hit both stationary and moving targets. It can be launched by HIMARS/MLRS. Promised since the beginning of the year, shipment of an unknown number of GLSDB’s is underway. They will be able to produce about 50 a month…https://en.defence-ua.com/weapon_and_tech/when_ukraine_will_receive_glsdb_missiles_the_alleged_shooting_down_of_which_the_russians_have_already_hurried_to_report-7103.html
Production of the French Caesar 155mm gun increased from two to six a month, which is fine. 155mm ammo is increasing from 1,000 shells a month to 3,000 shells/month by January, which is woefully inadequate…https://www.challenges.fr/economie/a-roanne-la-production-du-canon-caesar-passee-en-economie-de-guerre_870883
The French workers at a factory that produces shell casings read about all the production increases but haven’t seen any new equipment. They went on strike last month…https://france3-regions.francetvinfo.fr/occitanie/hautes-pyrenees/tarbes/malgre-une-activite-relancee-par-la-guerre-en-ukraine-les-salaries-des-forges-de-tarbes-en-greve-on-est-traumatises-2835866.html
In addition to Poland, Lithuania is working with Germany to repair damaged Ukrainian tanks…
https://twitter.com/Lithuanian_MoD/status/1714231435387645959
All 31 M1 tanks pledged to Ukraine have arrived…
https://twitter.com/TheStudyofWar/status/1714450472570884355
A Ukrainian drone mine layer in action, as observed by Russians…
https://twitter.com/bayraktar_1love/status/1714697065853251879
Ukrainian pilots begin training on F-16s in the US. Pilots have already begun training in Europe…https://www.politico.com/news/2023/10/13/ukrainian-pilots-expected-to-start-f-16-training-in-arizona-next-week-00121460?fbclid=IwAR0-C_72z6SyotD6T7X7AFo7xDui8LflEmAIgvyfnLaEArdJyJUwepQYOGI
The US stored 155mm artillery ammo in Israel in case of a regional emergency. With Israel’s permission, the US was allowed to ship the shells to Ukraine provided they were later replaced. Now, shells produced for Ukraine have been diverted to refill that Israeli stockpile…
France was producing 1,000 155mm a month in January 2023. In January 2024 they will be producing 3,000 shells a month. Ukraine uses 6,000 shells a day…
https://twitter.com/GuyPlopsky/status/1714737494640759023
A new crew talks about their Swedish Leopard…
https://twitter.com/wartranslated/status/1715301851287933338
AI Drones
Ukrainian developers have confirmed that their drones are now carrying out autonomous strikes on Russian forces without a human operator. This is the first time such drones are known to have been used, as UN allegations about autonomous attacks in Libya in 2020 remain unproven.
The Saker Scout drones can find, identify and attack 64 different types of Russian ‘military objects’ on their own, operating in areas where radio jamming blocks communication and prevents other drones from working.
The quadcopter Saker Scout, came into service last month and can carry three kilos of bombs to a range of around 12 kilometers. Small drones operated by remote control have proved extremely effective as bombers with modified RKG-3 anti-tank grenades or RPG warheads and can destroy even heavy tanks.
The Saker company was founded in 2021 to develop affordable AI for small business, with applications as drone-based vision systems crop protection. When Russia invaded, the company switched to assisting the military. One of the first requirements was an AI to help a drone operator spot vehicles concealed by vegetation or camouflage.
Saker’s system is based on machine learning and the developers say it can currently recognize 64 different types of ‘military object’ including tanks, personnel carriers and other hardware. It is continuously improved and is updated on demand when there is a requirement to detect a specific new object or vehicle type. An early Saker video shows the system identifying light and heavy armor (personnel carriers and tanks) and trucks as it flies over them….https://www.forbes.com/sites/davidhambling/2023/10/17/ukraines-ai-drones-seek-and-attack-russian-forces-without-human-oversight/?sh=1999924c66da
Russian Manpower
Russian convicts were recruited from prisons with a contract to serve six months and then be released with a pardon. They don’t get paid and they don’t receive money when wounded, unlike other soldiers. Now there are several reports that they are being taken to the 'Concentration Rehabilitation Centre' in Zaitseve, Luhansk and tortured, starved and threatened with death if they don’t sign a year-long contract extension…
https://twitter.com/ChrisO_wiki/status/1714017302851530946
Ukrainian Manpower
60% of Ukrainian units are not being rotated for rest and refit, which is a key tool to sustain units in a long war. Last week, it was reported that the 47th brigade is using ATGM, mortar and other personnel as infantry to make up for the large losses among the brigade’s infantry despite not being trained as infantry. Ukraine’s Air Assault brigades are among those units that have been on the front line over 600 days.
15 km west of Svatove, the Russians launched 2,581 artillery missions, 67 airstrikes and 23 ground assaults in four days. The soldiers describe their experiences…https://www.nytimes.com/2023/10/11/world/europe/ukraine-russia-elite-soldiers.html?te=1&nl=the-morning&emc=edit_nn_20231011
Five new mechanized brigades are being formed. Additional units would be useful to aid in the rotation of troops and/or apply additional power during an offensive. At present, though, it is not known if there is enough mechanized vehicles to outfit these new brigades…https://militaryland.net/news/ukrainian-army-is-forming-new-brigades/
Russian Naval Activity in the Baltic Sea
Last week, the pipeline between Finland and Estonia was reported damaged…https://apnews.com/article/finland-estonia-pipeline-24d6623cf2778464fdb4ef1d85c70d91
This week, there’s a report linking Russian naval ships to attacks on gas lines in the Baltic and that they’ve been near several wind farms in the Baltic and North Seas…https://lansinginstitute.org/2023/10/18/indicators-that-russians-have-attacked-subsea-facilities-in-europe/?fbclid=IwAR2s3MgcJQBM66hdBUMxm2lWTeMLC6eecGto9N-MOx_zh0cjgOMPmd6yJbI
***
Ukrainian Economy
Ukraine will spend $46 billion in 2024, more than half of which is military expenditures. $1 billion will be spent on drones alone.
The economy shrank by 33% in 2022. It will grow by 3.5% in 2023 because of increased domestic spending and foreign financial aid. It will be many years before the economy recovers to its pre-war size.
Challenges include rebuilding cities, increasing deficits, and labor shortages from refugees fleeing the country and mobilization. The destroyed Azov steel works in Mariupol accounted for 20% of Ukraine's steel output. Deficits will reach 21% of Ukraine's total output next year and $42 billion in financial aid is needed to cover it, and 15% of Ukraine's pre-war population is still living outside the country.
Ukraine hasn't had energy shortages since February, 2023, which helped the economy. In September, Ukraine exported 110k megawatts, which is a high for 2023 but a fraction of pre-war levels. The energy exports came from Ukraine's nuclear facilities.
The World Bank says Ukraine's exports will continue to shrink this year before growing 15% in 2024 and 30% in 2025. Finding alternate routes for grain shipments helped, and reopening the Black Sea shipping routes helps even more…https://www.nytimes.com/2023/10/19/business/ukraine-economy-war.html?te=1&nl=the-morning&emc=edit_nn_20231019
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Misc.
A camp near Kursk had 3000 personnel and equipment and was attacked by Ukrainian drones. No details on the damage…
https://twitter.com/NOELreports/status/1714566132336669149
Zaluzhniy visited the headquarters near Avdiivka when they shot down yet another Su-25…
https://twitter.com/GloOouD/status/1715078451684663453
The Russian drone is recovered by parachute and they take it into the building, which is then hit by GMLRS…
https://twitter.com/GloOouD/status/1713778846300831777
A thread on the experiences of Russian Storm Z prisoners. The 13th post is amusing…
A while back, a Russian helicopter came fairly close to being hit by a Ukrainian drone. The Russian Su-25 in front of this drone was under no such threat…
https://twitter.com/bayraktar_1love/status/1714586821135335786
Ukraine attacks Russian decoys, as well…
https://twitter.com/RALee85/status/1716174851512148004
Here’s a mortar position that hasn’t moved in a while, but they did make it more difficult to spot…
https://twitter.com/wartranslated/status/1715701736222937215
This could be the first war fought with a cat in the lap…
https://twitter.com/AndrewPerpetua/status/1713719545859395803
"Production of the French Caesar 155mm gun increased from two to six a month, which is fine."
Just some additional infos on Nexter's Caesar cannon production :
- Production time for each cannon is said to have changed from 30 months to 15 months.
- To be more precise, Nexter claims it could potentially finish up to 8 new cannons per months depending on the commands (I guess after a 15 months delay ?)
- The increase production is meant to replace the 30 cannons delivered by Franch to Ukraine + 6 additional cannons contracted by Ukraine. The article does not talk about others customers, I guess they will be delivered latter. Previously Nexter boasted about its order book to be full up to beyond 2030.
- In a general efforts not limited to Caesar, Nexter is starting to work through production line. Until now was purely artisanal with team of mechanics producing equipment from scratch. Caesar will now be completed by passing through 4 productions lines.
- The biggest increase of production seems to be in favour of the Scorpio program for the French Army meant to modernize its park of vehicles (300 Jaguar, 1.818 Griffon et 2.038 Serval). As such the company went from 830 workers to 1 485.
- There is a part about shell production but it is confusing : The yearly production is said to be 60 000 (but which year and why shells exactly ?). The goal is to increase it by 50% in 2024 and double it in 2025. However, monthly production of 155mm shells (aka those used by Caesar cannons) is said to be 1 000 with a goal to reach 3 000 at the beginning of 2024. Those are the words of French defence minister during a parliament hearing.
https://www.challenges.fr/economie/a-roanne-la-production-du-canon-caesar-passee-en-economie-de-guerre_870883
Really great work (again!)... Thank you.