Don's Weekly, 23 October 2023: Part 1

Oct 23, 2023

Hello everybody!

This volume of Don’s Weekly is covering the week since 16 October 2023.

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While the quality of the Russian army is degrading, they have plenty of reserves and they continue to expend them at many locations, Avdiivka most of all. The unannounced arrival of an ATACMS variant resulted in a massive loss of Russian helicopter. And Ukraine conducts another minor crossing of the Dnieper river.

Western Luhansk

The Russians keep attacking and the Ukrainians keep killing them.

20 km east of Kupiansk, a Russian tank was used by infantry as a transport. It was knocked out by an ATGM and then everyone was hit by artillery…

https://twitter.com/666_mancer/status/1714264069652316215

Continued Russian attacks towards Kupiansk yields no territory…

https://twitter.com/GloOouD/status/1715042421027795178

A Ukrainian spokesman says Russia continues to attack Kupiansk but their strong fortifications will hold…

https://twitter.com/NOELreports/status/1713956340933021708

12 km west of Svatove, a Stugna-P picks off Russian IFV’s…

https://twitter.com/EjShahid/status/1714982699553698010

Details from the Russians about an assault near Kupiansk…

https://twitter.com/ChrisO_wiki/status/1716171522807623857

Bakhmut

Russian forces continued their attacks towards Andriivka, each of which was repulsed despite a new regiment of mobilized troops being committed to the fight. Ukrainian forces control the territory to the north of Kurdyumivka and gained another 500-1500 meters east of Andriivka. Tom Cooper reports that the Russian have fallen back to Opytne in the north. The Russians are digging defensive positions along the road along Opytne and south of Odradivka.

A Russian general accuses a fired Russian general of causing 1,500 deaths in the Klishchiivka area during September…

https://twitter.com/wartranslated/status/1713828795826786750

Starting in the First World War the best fliers became aces and celebrated for their skills. Drone operators may never be known for their skills, but some of them have it. In the Kurdiumivka, two Russian soldiers are huddled in the corner of a room and the drone does a barrel roll as it heads for them…

https://twitter.com/NOELreports/status/1713864163091468539

In what was his personal horror movie, a Russian soldier is chased by a drone for several minutes. The edited video was over 2 1/2 minutes long…https://www.kyivpost.com/post/22851

The commander of the 3rd Assault brigade gives his assessment of the fighting around Bakhmut and is hoping his Azov brigade will be able to participate in the liberation of Mariupol…https://www.forum24.cz/bachmut-uz-me-nudi-rika-velitel-pluku-azov-ruska-pechota-je-podle-nej-v-troskach?utm_source=www.seznam.cz&utm_medium=sekce-z-internetu#dop_ab_variant=0&dop_source_zone_name=hpfeed.sznhp.box

Avdiivka

High intensity assaults are continuing and the waves vary in strength. Many of them use armored vehicles and others just use dismounted infantry. Sometimes Ukrainian forces are pushed back by a field, other times they counter-attack after the Russians are destroyed and retake the positions. One Ukrainian fighter estimates that Russian columns lose 20-30% to Ukrainian artillery fire before they even reach the front lines. Russia conducts about 11 airstrikes a day but they’ve lost five planes in ten days to Ukrainian air defenses.

Russia made a major effort to take the Slagheap. The Russians managed to get units into close combat with the defenders, and there were Ukrainian losses, but Ukraine held onto the position. As long as it holds onto the position it will be difficult for Russia to advance in the north. If Russia does manage to take the Slagheap it will be harder for Ukraine to hold onto their defenses just west of the Slagheap.

Even with all the Russian losses, sometimes it’s just not possible for Ukraine to counter-attack. Sometimes the Ukrainian defenders are short on ammo or are recovering from the casualties they suffered. Another factor is the state of defensive positions both sides are fighting over. Just west of Krasnohorivka (under the yellow “5” on the map) is a treeline that used to be Ukrainian defensive positions. The defenders retreated under Russian pressure and when the Russians occupied the positions, the Ukrainian artillery pounded them until the trenches ceased to exist as a viable defensive position since all collapsed under the bombardment. Without that protection against heavy bombardments and assaults, Ukraine cannot occupy those positions. They are essentially lost until conditions are calm enough to rebuild new defensive positions after a successful counter-attack.

North of Krasnohorivka, Ukraine says the Russians are digging tunnels to hide their forces and to move closer to Ukrainian defenses before moving in the open…https://www.unian.ua/war/bilya-avdijivki-okupanti-zastosovuyut-taktiku-krotiv-chim-ce-nebezpechno-12431718.html

1) A Russian soldier walks to his position showing bodies all around him. The Slag Heap is 4.5 km away. 48.212113213002354, 37.76067235942754…

https://twitter.com/wartranslated/status/1713839827748053157

Another view of the factories in Avdiivka and the Terrikon (Slagheap) they created…

https://twitter.com/NOELreports/status/1713981403673620529

With two bodies nearby, a Russian soldier is attacked by a grenade and commits suicide by grenade…

https://twitter.com/GloOouD/status/1713872999982432708

2) 2 km north of Avdiivka, the Presidential brigade stopped another Russian attack…

https://twitter.com/GloOouD/status/1714298826385723758

3) South of Avdiivka, two Russian BMPs are destroyed at the edge of their controlled territory…

https://twitter.com/bayraktar_1love/status/1715046071636750377

10 km southwest of Avdiivka, a Russian tank survives an ATGM hit but drives over a mine that kills the driver…

https://twitter.com/bayraktar_1love/status/1715059610799796296

Air defense helped Ukraine repel the attackers. Ukraine shot down three Su-25s in three days and Russian helicopters couldn’t come close enough to help. Russian airstrikes are still heavy but losses at this rate might convince them to change their behaviors…

https://twitter.com/FreudGreyskull/status/1713995597785756040

There are bullets and missiles flying around and the Russians want to live, but I don’t know why they are clustered together…

https://twitter.com/PStyle0ne1/status/1713920673561674079?s=20

4) From a week ago, a failed Russian attack on the southern Avdiivka front…

https://twitter.com/GermanObserver1/status/1714019105974460864

After Russian tanks are knocked out, the ones that cannot be recovered by Ukraine are destroyed by grenades from drones…

https://twitter.com/GloOouD/status/1713989461556576573

…
https://twitter.com/AlexRaptor94/status ... 3916521528

Trucks used in an assault…

https://twitter.com/NOELreports/status/1716098114350682131

A Ukrainian fighter had time for a quick report between waves of attacks…

https://twitter.com/wartranslated/status/1715344105931235550

The bombs from Russian airstrikes aren’t very accurate, but a near miss, especially from the heavier bombs, can still do a lot of damage. There’s a Ukrainian soldier in the crater…

https://twitter.com/DefenceU/status/1713863011184623674

An image of all the Russian vehicles that were destroyed approaching the Slagheap from last week…

https://twitter.com/OSINTua/status/1714604462159835285

5) 3 km north of the Slagheap, video and images of burning Russian vehicles and a DPICM impact…

https://twitter.com/wartranslated/status/1714931914262425978

6) On the southern flank, eight Russian vehicles were about to charge across the field when two of them ran into mines. Two vehicles pressed on and were destroyed before they crossed the field. Three were destroyed by mines and artillery. Three retreated…

https://twitter.com/NOELreports/status/1714901683849814124

A Ukrainian talks of his experiences…

https://twitter.com/wartranslated/status/1715631066982105127

A wider view of the Russian losses on the northern flank of Avdiivka. Many were hit before they reached the front lines. And this was from early in the week. There are 2-3 times as many destroyed vehicles since then.