Don's Weekly, 23 June 2025: Part 3

by Donald Hill

(…continued from Part 2…)

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Russia

The Shipunov Desin Bureau in Tula has 8,000 workers. It conducts research and production of precision weapon systems, such as the Pantsir air defense system. Five drones damaged an electrical substation, three warehouses and an administrative building, starting a 400 square meter fire. Two days later, another drone hit a warehouse of finished products and operations were suspended.

The Russia Africa Corps is supporting the junta in Mali. Another convoy of Russian and Mali government soldiers was ambushed. Four Russians were killed and three were injured. A different junta convoy was attacked with a drone.

The A-22 Foxbat light aircraft has been used to attack the Alabuga drone factory before. Some reports said that the aircraft carried a bomb in the most recent attack, but that would detract from carrying its own payload on its one-way mission. A video report shows that a drone was towing a glider. The lift of the glider means the A-22 only had to contend with the drag of the glider and could carry its own explosives to hit the same or different target. Three videos of the attack and a recruiting video promising technology jobs for foreign students are here. One person was killed, 13 were wounded and a fire was quickly extinguished. The plant is expected to produce about 9,000 combat drones and 15,000 decoy drones this year.

An S-400 was reportedly destroyed in Bryansk with a Storm Shadow missile.

In addition to the workers being sent to Kursk, North Korea is sending 25,000 workers to the Alabuga drone factory. This helps Russia, which is short of laborers, and trains North Koreans on the production and operation of drones. New facilities were built to accommodate the workers. Russia has already helped North Korea increase the accuracy of their KN-23 ballistic missile and has given them technical assistance with their air-to-air missiles, nuclear subs and missile-launch capabilities.

Russia recruited between 140-180,000 prisoners to fight in Ukraine. It plans to recruit 126,000 more in 2025. Russia had 420k prisoners in 2022. That was reduced to 266k in October 2023.

The Front Eagle tanker collided with the Russian shadow fleet tanker Adalynn in the strait of Hormuz. The Adalynn caught fire and its 24 crew members were evacuated. A fire on the Front Eagle was quickly extinguished. Described as a navigational error, the Front Eagle seemed to be overtaking the Adalynn when the Adalynn turned towards the Front Eagle. The Front Eagle didn’t notice the change until late but instead of turning away from the Adalynn it turned towards the ship.

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Ukraine

The new commander of Ukraine’s Unmanned Systems Forces has prioritized Russian drone operators over soldiers, tanks, logistics or any other target. He is trying to achieve air superiority.

The volume of drones and bombs as of last Wednesday.

440 drones and 32 missiles were sent in one attack and 28 people were killed and 100 wounded throughout the country. The soundtrack of a drone attack in Odesa. A drone flies into high-rise apartments in Kyiv.

Ukraine’s capitol burns because it has the misfortune to be Russia’s neighbor.

Russia used cluster munitions in Kharkiv in 2022 many times, as seen by this debris pile. Using Kh-101 missiles, they delivered them in Kyiv last week, as seen here. Whereas US cluster munitions had a failure rate of 2-3%, Russian cluster munitions can have a failure rate of up to 40%, providing a greater chance of long term hazard.

Russia expanded its attacks on energy production by using drones to attack wind turbines in the Mykolaiv region.

Ukraine claims a 40% effectives rate for machine guns firing at drones even though they are flying at 2000 meters before diving down on their targets. Ukraine also uses helicopters to hunt Shaheds.

A 33-year-old mobilized soldier that left pro-Russian comments in chatbots operated by Russia was recruited to provide the location of his unit’s Neptune coastal defense missile systems. He was also asked to adjust Russian missile strikes on military training centers and would be given advanced warning of strikes so he could evacuate. He was arrested while preparing an intelligence report before he could send it.

8300 Ukrainian convicts joined the Ukrainian army and another 1,000 applicants are under review. Officials estimate that 20-30% of the country’s inmates could potentially join the armed forces.

About 7 million Ukrainians live outside their country. 50% said they do not plan to return. Ukraine’s parliament just approved dual citizenship from a list of countries that they need to draft. If a Ukrainian citizen applies for citizenship from a country on that future list they can still retain Ukrainian citizenship. A foreigner from a listed country can also apply for Ukrainian citizenship. Ukrainian spouses of foreign citizens can also have dual citizenship. The objective is to encourage a return to Ukraine.

Since Major Robert “Magyar” Brovdi was appointed commander of the Unmanned Systems Forces, he promoted Junior Lieutenant Andriy Klymenko to command the 414th “Magyar Birds” Separate Brigade. Brovdi plans to promote 6-7 drone units and create a unified command and online reporting system, as well as creating an efficient logistical system for ammo and critical components.

An unspecified number of Ukrainian prisoners were returned. All were severely ill or wounded. Some had been prisoners for over three years and many surrendered at Mariupol.

A repurposed Shahed drone engine.

Another year and it’s graduation season in Ukraine again. 111 schools in Ukraine are completely destroyed. The students decided to take their photos in front of their school, number 134 in northeast Kharkiv. Built in 1936, Russian Spetsnaz turned it into a stronghold on 27 February 2022. Most of them were killed or captured and the school burned in the fighting. These street images are from 2015.

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Diplomacy

26% of the world’s oil supply moves through the Strait of Homuz. With Trump widening the war on Iran, the price of oil will rise even more.

Six weeks ago, the price on Urals Crude Oil was $50 a barrel due to increased OPEC production. Based on political rhetoric, prices already rose to $68 per barrel by the time Israel attacked on 13 June. As of Friday, it was $74 a barrel. Even though there is a price cap of $60 a barrel, these price increases will significantly help the Russia economy when it was in the process of being severely hurt by lower oil prices.

Lindsey Graham is making another effort to bring the Russian sanctions bill to a vote in the senate.

A year ago, children of Russian spies thought their family was Argentinian that moved to Slovenia. They only discovered they were Russian on the plane to Moscow after their parents and other Russian spies were arrested in multiple countries and exchanged for US and German hostages and Russian political prisoners. The children spoke only Spanish. Last week, Argentina arrested a group of Russians that were part of Prigozhin’s disinformation campaign and were working with local collaborators. Argentina is creating the Federal Investigation Department, similar to the US’s FBI, that will focus on organized crime, drug trafficking and terrorism.

Europe has now surpassed the US in aid to Ukraine, giving €72 billion compared to €65 billion from the US. The monthly average of the aid is actually a little higher in 2025 than it was when the US provided aid

In October 2023, the US congress declined to pass an aid package for six months. Before leaving office, Biden sent a large aid package that had been previously authorized. Trump withheld that aid for a week in March 2025 before allowing it to resume. There are no indications that the US will send any further aid.

Latvia is creating a Rangers unit capable of reconnaissance, direct action, unconventional warfare, national resistance support and asymmetric tactics.

Sweden is borrowing $31 billion to increase defense spending to 3.5% GDP by 2032. Germany recently changed their rules so they could increase their debt for spending on defense.

Hungary sold 75% of the state defense holding company to a private company allied with Orban.

A US band that tours performs with a Ukrainian flag, except in Hungary where it’s not allowed. So in Hungary they use blue and yellow lighting.

Russian and Belarusian citizens cannot buy real estate in Latvia and must have security clearances to work on critical infrastructure there. Lithuania and Finland already have a real estate ban in place. Latvia joined seven Nordic and Baltic countries that prohibit any Russians who fought Ukraine from entering the Schengen Area.

Sometime before 2022, the Slovakian government sold obsolete ammunition to Konstrukta, a state-owned defense company. On the second day of Russia’s open invasion, the government bought the ammo back from the state-owned company for a higher price than they sold it and sent it to Ukraine. Fico subsequently became the leader of Slovakia and his government arrested eight people for this action. The European Public Prosecutor’s Office is investigating. An opposition leader says it is a politically motivated prosecution. The current defense minister has accused the former defense minister of treason for sending 13 decommissioned MiG-29 fighters to Ukraine. Fico is talking about pulling out of NATO and becoming neutral. Fico refused to send surplus government equipment to Ukraine but Slovakian commercial companies still deliver equipment and ammunition.

Czechia bought 246 CV90s and will produce 40% of the work, including chassis and turrets. Production is expected to be completed by 2030.

The EU is spending €75 billion to upgrade transportation infrastructure to move military equipment. Much of the infrastructure will also provide economic benefits but diverse shipping companies are already ‘concerned’ that restructuring ports might reduce some of their economic benefits.

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(…to be continued…)